El Nino And Central Florida Weather

El Nino and Central Florida Weather

El Nino
El Nino is a warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Nino events average 1-3 years long
El Nino events occur about every 5-10 years
El Nino affects weather around the globe

What do we already know?
We stated that El Nino affects hurricane development.
High level winds cause wind shear and limit development of hurricanes
This is caused by movement of the jet streams
Upper level jet streams (30,000 Feet +) have moved South across the US

What do we already know?
According to the Investigate activity how does El Nino affect Florida’s:
Temperatures (October to March 1982-83 El Nino)
No noticeable change
Precipitation
Increased by 10 inches

Is that all there is? End of investigation?
No, let’s look deeper.
Research by Bartlett Hagemeyer, National Weather Service Melbourne Fl. “Significant extratropical tornado occurrences in Florida during strong El Nino and strong La Nina events”
This study found a high correlation between strong El Nino events and development of tornadoes in Florida particularly during January - April

Why Tornadoes?
Upper level jet stream moving at 100+ mph travels west to east across the state
A low pressure system in the Gulf draws lower level air northward over Florida
If the low level winds build this may cause a “crossing” of the winds triggering tornado outbreaks

What should we do?
Preparedness
Prediction
Warning

Temperature variations
What do other studies show about temperature changes during El Nino?
(-)2-3 °F change during winter months
What does that make our overnight low temperature?
What affect might that have?

More about precipitation
During El Nino winter precipitation may exceed normal by 30%
What affects might this have on
Lake/aquifer levels
Fire season
Beef cattle production
Agriculture
Tourism

El Nino And Central Florida Weather

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