El Nino And Central Florida Weather
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El Nino And Central Florida Weather






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El Nino And Central Florida Weather El Nino And Central Florida Weather Presentation Transcript

  • El Nino and Central Florida Weather
  • El Nino
    • El Nino is a warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • El Nino events average 1-3 years long
    • El Nino events occur about every 5-10 years
    • El Nino affects weather around the globe
  •   View slide
  • What do we already know?
    • We stated that El Nino affects hurricane development.
      • High level winds cause wind shear and limit development of hurricanes
    • This is caused by movement of the jet streams
      • Upper level jet streams (30,000 Feet +) have moved South across the US
    View slide
  • What do we already know?
    • According to the Investigate activity how does El Nino affect Florida’s:
      • Temperatures (October to March 1982-83 El Nino)
        • No noticeable change
      • Precipitation
        • Increased by 10 inches
  • Is that all there is? End of investigation?
    • No, let’s look deeper.
    • Research by Bartlett Hagemeyer, National Weather Service Melbourne Fl. “Significant extratropical tornado occurrences in Florida during strong El Nino and strong La Nina events”
      • This study found a high correlation between strong El Nino events and development of tornadoes in Florida particularly during January - April
  • Why Tornadoes?
    • Upper level jet stream moving at 100+ mph travels west to east across the state
    • A low pressure system in the Gulf draws lower level air northward over Florida
    • If the low level winds build this may cause a “crossing” of the winds triggering tornado outbreaks
  • What should we do?
    • Preparedness
    • Prediction
    • Warning
  • Temperature variations
    • What do other studies show about temperature changes during El Nino?
    • (-)2-3 °F change during winter months
    • What does that make our overnight low temperature?
    • What affect might that have?
  • More about precipitation
    • During El Nino winter precipitation may exceed normal by 30%
    • What affects might this have on
      • Lake/aquifer levels
      • Fire season
      • Beef cattle production
      • Agriculture
      • Tourism