2012 General Election Prediction


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2012 General election prediction

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  • Polls show Obama has support from 75% of Latinos and 95% of African-Americans nationwideObama is poised to lose the white vote by 20 points this year, especially white males nationwideThe four most important swing states are Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado. Combined, these account for 69 Electoral College votes.
  • RCP margin of error is around 3%In the margin of error for all polls, the error is higher when there are a larger number of undecided voters. Therefore, CO may surprise us on how it votes.
  • Jewish population unhappy with Obama administration’s attitude towards Israel. The swing state with largest Jewish populationObama is called the least Israel friendly U.S. president to date (according to popular opinion)
  • Obama became uncharacteristically teary-eyed during his speech in Des Moines last night as he wrapped up his campaign.
  • Even though Romney’s father was a former governor of Michigan and also the CEO American Motors, Obama’s auto bailout and Romney’s murky attitude towards it has definitely fueled Obama’s lead in this state.
  • In the past 10 years, the African-American population grew 58% and Hispanics by 82%
  • Hurricane Sandy - “October Surprise” because of the impact it may have on the presidential election.One of the wealthiest states in the nation.
  • After Romney’s false accusations about Chrysler moving Jeep production to China, he received backlash from the auto industry for spreading untrue rumors (Bomey). Since then, the Obama campaign has used Romney’s falsehoods to depict the questionability of his judgment.
  • Many VA citizens in other counties are unhappy with the current economy, which is why they support Romney. At the same time, some Virginian voters don’t feel like Romney can relate to their economic struggles, causing a lack of understanding.
  • CO might be blue…
  • 2012 General Election Prediction

    1. 1. November 6th, 2012
    2. 2. Electoral Map 2012
    3. 3. Polling Accuracy  The two most accurate pollsters in 2008 were Rasmussen and PEW (tied).  FiveThirtyEight ranked in the top 5.  All three calculated the popular vote breakdown to be: Obama 52% / McCain 46% ( fractions of a percentage point).  In 2004, the RCP only missed WI and in 2008, it only missed IN and NC, the two closest states won by Obama.  Combined, the state averages were off by just 2.8 points in 2008 and 1.9 points in 2004 – not perfect, but provide somewhat reliable predictions for 2012.  Rather than rely on one poll alone such as ABC/Fox, RCP averages many polls together for more accurate results.
    4. 4. Prediction: Romney (200) Colorado (9)  Active Registered Voter Stats: 32% D, 34% R, 34% U  The number of unaffiliated voters in CO has increased by 225,000 since 2008, making it a closer race for each candidate  Early voter reg. stats: 37% R, 35% D  Voted Republican in 5 of the last 7 elections  Entrepreneurial, wealthy state  Unemployment rate above national average
    5. 5. Prediction: Romney (229) Florida (29)  Active Reg. Voter Stats: 41% D, 36% R, 23% U  67% white, 13.5% Latino, 13.3% black  Jewish pop. account for 8% of likely voters in FL  According to the AJC, Jewish support for Obama in FL has dropped from 76% to 69%, a favorable shift for Romney  Historically, Latino voter turnout has been low Estimated Romney gets 61% of white vote  Was a red state in 4 of the last 6 elections
    6. 6. Prediction: Obama (207)  Democratic in 4 of the last 5 elections  Unemployment rate below the national average  Des Moines Register poll on Nov. 3rd confirms that Obama is leading in IA by +5  The state that propelled him out of the caucuses and toward the Democratic nomination Iowa (6)
    7. 7. Prediction: Obama (223)  Leaning Obama  In a poll by the Detroit Free Press, 50% of respondents said that the auto bailout was a deciding factor in their vote. Obama won the support of 67% of those votes  An Obama campaign ad showed Romney’s article from 2008 in the NY Times titled “Let Detroit go Bankrupt” Michigan (16)
    8. 8. Prediction: Obama (229) Nevada (6)  RCP margin of error is about 3% which means that Obama’s support actually ranges between 47.2% and 53.2%  Frequently a swing state; last 6 elections it was 3x blue/3x red  Large % registered voters – Independent  54% white, 27% Hispanic, 9% black  Booming population  3rd most urban state in terms of pop.
    9. 9. New Hampshire (4)  Population 94.6% white (one of the nation’s lowest minority-populated states)  30% R, 29% D, 40% U  54% of women favor Obama (52% of likely voters)  56% of men favor Romney (48% likely voters)  51% of voters aged 50+ favor Obama (54% likely voters) Prediction: Obama (233)
    10. 10. North Carolina (15) Prediction: Romney (244)  Leaning Romney  Since 1980, it’s voted red (except for 2008)  According to Rasmussen Reports, male voters in NC prefer Romney by 66% to 31%, female voters support Obama 58% to 40%  93% of NC Reps and 22% of NC Dems favor Romney. 77% NC Dems favor Obama
    11. 11. Prediction: Obama (251)  Has gone with the winner in every election since 1964  The largest newspaper in OH, the Cleveland Plain Dealer, which has endorsed the winner in all but two elections since 1964, endorsed Obama  Unemployment rate below the national avg. - believes he deserves a second chance Ohio (18)
    12. 12. Virginia (13) Prediction: Obama (264)  Voted Republican in every election since 1968, except for 2008  Fairfax County support: In 2008, Obama won 60% of the vote as opposed to McCain’s 39% (due to Republican stance on businesses – most jobs in Fairfax are from gov’t contractors  Large minority pop., young voters, and suburban independents
    13. 13. Prediction: Obama (274)  Democratic in the last 6 elections  Unemployment rate below the national average  Despite the fact that Romney’s running mate, Paul Ryan, has been a Republican representative of WI since 1999, Obama is winning the state by generous margins  Obama has held the lead for the entire month of October Wisconsin (10)
    14. 14. Pennsylvania (20) Prediction: Obama (294)  Since 1992, PA has voted Democratic  In the last 60 years, the candidate who carried the state has also won the national popular vote in every election but two.  Philadelphia suburbs is left-leaning, driven by women Republicans are linked with opposition to abortion /same-sex marriage.
    15. 15. Electoral College Map Prediction
    16. 16. Obama Wins Re-Election