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3M Talk March 2010


My talk at 3M thanks to their HIspanic Organization for Leadership. March 2, 2010

My talk at 3M thanks to their HIspanic Organization for Leadership. March 2, 2010

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  • 1. The US economy: where we might be headed 3M Hispanic Organization for Leadership March 2, 2010 / Dr. Michael Brandl 3M Innovation Center - Austin
  • 2. Overview
    • Who I am
      • Economist with McCombs School of Business
        • Managerial Economics – daytime MBA, Evening MBA, and Executive MBA programs in Austin
      • LLILAS (Teresa Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies)
    • Today
      • Where the US economy is
      • How we got here
      • Where we might be headed
  • 3. Improving GDP…but
  • 4. Unemployment problems…
  • 5. Consumer confidence
  • 6. How we got here…US in 2000
  • 7. 2007
  • 8. How did we get here
  • 9. Everyone together now…
  • 10. Where are we headed?
    • The need for reasonable debt level.
      • Households are over indebted and don’t save.
        • This will change…has it already started?
          • Households will probably start to save more.
          • Easy credit will no longer be available to households.
        • More capital available…
        • Different spending habits…
      • Restructuring financial markets
      • Government debt levels remain a worry.
        • Greece just dodged a bullet…who is next?
        • US needs to worry about this.
          • Aging baby boomers
  • 11. Lessons for managers
    • Asset bubbles happen.
      • “ Irrational increase in the market price of an asset.”
        • Very difficult to spot them when they are happening…
          • Even though there is a long history of them.
          • Denial: “This time it’s different…”
        • When the pop, the masses can be massive.
      • But…benchmarking encourages it.
        • Better to suffer in company…right?
  • 12. More lessons…
    • Markets will punish stupidity.
      • Short term thinkers…are doomed.
      • The need to understand and appreciate change.
      • Silo thinking is dangerous…and will be punished.
    • Markets are great things…but brutal.
      • And that is why we will do well…
      • The future will be very different from today and the past…
        • It is already changing…
  • 13. Questions & Answers Feel free to ask anything! [email_address] http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/brandl Twitter: MichaelBrandl Facebook: MichaelBrandl