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3M Talk March 2010

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My talk at 3M thanks to their HIspanic Organization for Leadership. March 2, 2010

My talk at 3M thanks to their HIspanic Organization for Leadership. March 2, 2010

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  • 1. The US economy: where we might be headed 3M Hispanic Organization for Leadership March 2, 2010 / Dr. Michael Brandl 3M Innovation Center - Austin
  • 2. Overview
    • Who I am
      • Economist with McCombs School of Business
        • Managerial Economics – daytime MBA, Evening MBA, and Executive MBA programs in Austin
      • LLILAS (Teresa Lozano Long Institute of Latin American Studies)
    • Today
      • Where the US economy is
      • How we got here
      • Where we might be headed
  • 3. Improving GDP…but
  • 4. Unemployment problems…
  • 5. Consumer confidence
  • 6. How we got here…US in 2000
  • 7. 2007
  • 8. How did we get here
  • 9. Everyone together now…
  • 10. Where are we headed?
    • The need for reasonable debt level.
      • Households are over indebted and don’t save.
        • This will change…has it already started?
          • Households will probably start to save more.
          • Easy credit will no longer be available to households.
        • More capital available…
        • Different spending habits…
      • Restructuring financial markets
      • Government debt levels remain a worry.
        • Greece just dodged a bullet…who is next?
        • US needs to worry about this.
          • Aging baby boomers
  • 11. Lessons for managers
    • Asset bubbles happen.
      • “ Irrational increase in the market price of an asset.”
        • Very difficult to spot them when they are happening…
          • Even though there is a long history of them.
          • Denial: “This time it’s different…”
        • When the pop, the masses can be massive.
      • But…benchmarking encourages it.
        • Better to suffer in company…right?
  • 12. More lessons…
    • Markets will punish stupidity.
      • Short term thinkers…are doomed.
      • The need to understand and appreciate change.
      • Silo thinking is dangerous…and will be punished.
    • Markets are great things…but brutal.
      • And that is why we will do well…
      • The future will be very different from today and the past…
        • It is already changing…
  • 13. Questions & Answers Feel free to ask anything! [email_address] http://blogs.mccombs.utexas.edu/brandl Twitter: MichaelBrandl Facebook: MichaelBrandl