Phase III Preferred Scenario and Draft 2040 Regional Growth Framework Overview Board of Directors September 1, 2011Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning
Urbanization Trends – 1970 to 2000+19% Population Growth in Urban Area (606,549 in 1970 to 723,955 in 2000)+76% Urban Area Expansion (185.9 sq miles in 1970 to 327.6 sq miles in 2000)-32% Population Density Decline in Urban Area (3,263 pop/sq mi in 1970 to 2,209 pop/sq mi in 2000)
Implications and Concerns“Thinner” Tax Base to provide Services for Larger AreasEffects on the Quality of Life and Economic Prosperity in Our Region
Future Land Development Needs Local-based vs. Region-based Total Increase in Developed Land as15% Projected in Local Land Use Plans12% Dayton + Xenia9% + Troy + Springboro6% Projected Employment Growth Land Needed to Accommodate + etc. Projected Population Projected and Employment Population Growth Growth3% 0
Vision for the Miami Valley Region: Concentrated Development
Concentrated Development Scenario: Development and Assessment Land Holding Capacity Assessment: The level of land capacity (theoretical) to accommodate land use activities, expressed in dwelling units, households, or number of employees Preferred Spatial and Performance Evaluation Scenario Development Land Development Suitability Assessment: Locations within the planning area that are best suited to accommodate land development
Change in PopulationPopulation in theRegion is expectedto grow by 3%, from834,717 in 2000 to859,063 in 2040.
Change in JobsThe number of jobsin the Region isexpected to grow by5%, from 436,929 in2000 to 458,384 in2040.
Change in Population and JobsThe increase inpopulation and jobsalong with anincrease of thedensity and diversityof land uses willoccur in theRegion’s more urbanareas, in existingcommunities.
Concentrated Development: Principles Development will be concentrated around regional assets and in areas that already have the infrastructure to support it. The rehabilitation and/or repurposing of vacant and underused structures would be encouraged, along with a more broad commitment to infill development – whether it makes use of existing structures or vacant lots. The preservation of agriculture land and other open space would be a priority as well as encouraging more connection and cooperation between the Region’s communities.
Concentrated Development: TypologiesD-Zone 1 Areas with the least dense development and the least amount of development diversityD-Zone 2 Areas with a moderate density level and small-to-moderate levels of development densityD-Zone 3 Areas that may be either less dense with a higher diversity or more dense with a lower development diversityD-Zone 4 Areas with higher density levels and higher levels of development diversityD-Zone 5 Areas that are both dense and diverse, containing least two types of development
A Living Region: 2040 RegionalGrowth Framework for the Miami Valley Region
The 2040 Regional Growth Framework, currently in a draft version, is a long-term strategic land development framework for bringing the Concentrated Development vision to reality.This Framework is more than a map. It will include policy recommendations as implementation strategies.
2040 Regional Growth Framework: Development Not to assign traditional land use designations such as residential, commercial, or industrial areas. Define areas according to what is “appropriate” (Phase I Land Development Suitability Assessment and Land Use Demand Assessment) and/or “preferred” (Phase II Future Land Use Scenarios) for future development, redevelopment, and preservation. Incorporates 6 dimensions of land classification.
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework INFILL GROWTH SECTOR Currently developed areas including areas that are partially developed.
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework INTENDED GROWTH SECTOR Areas that are currently undeveloped but suitable and preferable for future development.
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework CONTROLLED GROWTH SECTOR Areas that are not currently developed and are not considered to be preferable locations but are suitable and already zoned for development.
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework LIMITED GROWTH SECTOR Areas that are not currently developed and have limitations for future development but are zoned for development.
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework RESERVED OPEN SECTOR Open spaces that are suited for future development. This area could be developed, however, beyond the year 2040. PRESERVED OPEN SECTOR Open spaces under environmental protection.
A Living Region: 2040 Regional Growth Framework: Implementation Policy Priorities Encourage development around the Region’s assets Focus on the maintenance of existing infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, etc.) Foster a sense of connection and cooperation between the Region’s communities Revive the Region’s older communities Revive the Region’s core city – the City of Dayton
Current Efforts and Next Steps Consensus Building Identify, develop, and evaluate a preferred scenario (completed Public open houses (Aug 2011) in July 2011) Presentations and input Develop 2040 Regional solicitations (Aug – Nov 2011) Growth Framework (Draft version developed) Endorsement and formal review from local jurisdictions (Aug – Nov 2011) Compile, evaluate and make recommendation on 2040 Approval from MVRPC Board Regional Growth Framework of Directors (Dec 2011) implementation policies (currently underway)