Summary of Phase I Existing Conditions Assessment Board of Directors May 7, 2009 Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning

Urbanization Trends Population: 346,864 Urbanized Area: 66.2 sq miles Population Density: 5,236 pop/sq mi

Population:

346,864

Urbanized Area:

66.2 sq miles

Population Density:

5,236 pop/sq mi

Urbanization Trends Population: 723,955 Urbanized Area: 327.6 sq miles Population Density: 2,210 pop/sq mi

Population:

723,955

Urbanized Area:

327.6 sq miles

Population Density:

2,210 pop/sq mi

How do you envision the Region in 2040? ?

Going Places – An Integrated Land Use Vision of the Miami Valley Region is to bring the Miami Valley Region TOGETHER and to make this Region a BETTER PLACE to live, work, and play with a Shared Land Use Vision

Planning Process 3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and Assessment Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework

3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years

Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation

Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and Assessment

Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework

Phase I Structure Physical Condition Evaluation – Land Supply Evaluate the Region’s land development suitability based on both natural and built environment factors Examine the existing uses of land, including land use intensities in the Region Identify developable land in the Region Non-Physical Condition Evaluation – Land Demand Identify how much land is devoted to different types of land uses Identify socio-economic trends and develop projections Translate these projections into future land demand

Physical Condition Evaluation – Land Supply

Evaluate the Region’s land development suitability based on both natural and built environment factors

Examine the existing uses of land, including land use intensities in the Region

Identify developable land in the Region

Non-Physical Condition Evaluation – Land Demand

Identify how much land is devoted to different types of land uses

Identify socio-economic trends and develop projections

Translate these projections into future land demand

Completed Studies Physical Condition Evaluation - Land Supply Open Space Assessment Land Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment Factors Land Suitability Assessment – Built Environment Factors Land Development Suitability Assessment Non – Physical Condition Evaluation - Land Demand Economic Base Assessment Housing Assessment Industrial Development Assessment Commercial Development Assessment Land Use Demand Assessment Study reports available on MVRPC’s Going Places website at www.mvrpc.org/rlu/

Physical Condition Evaluation - Land Supply

Open Space Assessment

Land Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment Factors

Land Suitability Assessment – Built Environment Factors

Land Development Suitability Assessment

Non – Physical Condition Evaluation - Land Demand

Economic Base Assessment

Housing Assessment

Industrial Development Assessment

Commercial Development Assessment

Land Use Demand Assessment

Study reports available on MVRPC’s Going Places website at www.mvrpc.org/rlu/

What have we found out?

Geographically, development has been uneven Commercial GLA Concentration: 2007 Housing Unit Change: 1990 - 2000

Development has been shifting among land use types Land Use Percentage Change: 1975 - 2000

The Region contains varying degrees of potential for future land development Not all of our land is equal in terms of development potential – some areas are better suited for physical development than others Assessment of Region’s landscape from natural and built environment perspectives provided a comprehensive overview of where developmental constraints and/or opportunities exist

Not all of our land is equal in terms of development potential – some areas are better suited for physical development than others

Assessment of Region’s landscape from natural and built environment perspectives provided a comprehensive overview of where developmental constraints and/or opportunities exist

Land Suitability Assessment – Natural Environment Natural Environment Suitability Composite Map Regional Land by Development Potential Classification

Land Suitability Assessment – Built Environment Residential Suitability Composite Map Non-Residential Suitability Composite Map

Comprehensive Land Suitability Measure

Land Development Condition Measure

Land Developability Measure

The Region is in the process of a demographic and economic shift Population is aging and household size has been decreasing The Region is shifting from a production-based economy to a service-based economy Household income has remained stagnant Number of households who pay more than 30% of their income on housing-related cost has been increasing

Population is aging and household size has been decreasing

The Region is shifting from a production-based economy to a service-based economy

Household income has remained stagnant

Number of households who pay more than 30% of their income on housing-related cost has been increasing

Land development not tied to population change Population in the Region remained relatively stable between 1970 and 2000 Between 1975 and 2000, total developed land (res/com/ind) in the Region increased by 44.6% Vacancy Rates have increased Residential vacancy rate has risen from 6.34% in 1980 to 6.98% in 2000 14.6% of the Region’s commercial space is vacant* 19.3% of the Region’s industrial space is vacant* * Estimates were calculated based on Gem Real Estate Group’s sample data from their Retail, Office, and Industrial studies

Population in the Region remained relatively stable between 1970 and 2000

Between 1975 and 2000, total developed land (res/com/ind) in the Region increased by 44.6%

Vacancy Rates have increased

Residential vacancy rate has risen from 6.34% in 1980 to 6.98% in 2000

14.6% of the Region’s commercial space is vacant*

19.3% of the Region’s industrial space is vacant*

* Estimates were calculated based on Gem Real Estate Group’s sample data from their Retail, Office, and Industrial studies

If current development trends continue, a moderate amount of additional developed land will be required Regional Population Projections Regional Employment Projections

The Region has enough developable land to accommodate future needs Supply Vs. Demand

The entire Region will benefit if.. Development is planned and executed in a manner that takes advantage of existing infrastructure before paying for new construction Development takes advantage of the Region’s natural resources without threatening their quality

Development is planned and executed in a manner that takes advantage of existing infrastructure before paying for new construction

Development takes advantage of the Region’s natural resources without threatening their quality

Next Step – Phase II Given projected land demand and considering the regional landscape, where and how should the Region develop in the future? Future Land Use Scenario Development Land Use Scenario Impact Assessment Identify and incorporate local voices into a regional vision of the future Focus groups and community meetings to understand the wants and needs of the region’s citizens All data will be used to generate regional development models

Given projected land demand and considering the regional landscape, where and how should the Region develop in the future?

Future Land Use Scenario Development

Land Use Scenario Impact Assessment

Identify and incorporate local voices into a regional vision of the future

Focus groups and community meetings to understand the wants and needs of the region’s citizens

All data will be used to generate regional development models

Steering and Planning Advisory Committee Meeting Summary Purpose Phase I Wrap Up Time and location 9:00 – 11:00 am on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 at the Center for Regional Cooperation A total of 29 participants engaged in a facilitated small group discussion In terms of LAND USE between 2010 and 2040, the Miami Valley should… Ways to get endorsement of Phase I from more regional stakeholders…

Purpose

Phase I Wrap Up

Time and location

9:00 – 11:00 am on Wednesday, April 15, 2009 at the Center for Regional Cooperation

A total of 29 participants engaged in a facilitated small group discussion

In terms of LAND USE between 2010 and 2040, the Miami Valley should…

Ways to get endorsement of Phase I from more regional stakeholders…

Phase II Kick-Off 3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and Assessment Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework

3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years

Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation

Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and Assessment

Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework

Future Land Use Theme Development Identify common future land use themes Common themes identified from members of the Steering and Planning Advisory committees will be used as the base in the future land use scenarios mapping exercise, which is the focus of the Joint Phase II Kick Off meeting Focus groups and community meetings to refine common themes as well as future land use scenarios - incorporate local voices into a regional vision

Identify common future land use themes

Common themes identified from members of the Steering and Planning Advisory committees will be used as the base in the future land use scenarios mapping exercise, which is the focus of the Joint Phase II Kick Off meeting

Focus groups and community meetings to refine common themes as well as future land use scenarios - incorporate local voices into a regional vision

Next Meeting Phase II Joint Kick-Off Meeting: Future Land Use Scenario Development Time: 9:00 – 11:00 am Date: TBD (mid June) Location: Center for Regional Cooperation