Miami Valley Land Use Demand Assessment Board of Directors April 2, 2009 Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning

“Going Places” Planning Process 3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation (Est. 1.5 Yrs: July 2007 – December 2008) Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and Assessment (Est. 2 Yrs: January 2009 – December 2010) Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework (Est. 6 months: January 2011 – June 2011)

3 Phase process with an estimated timeline of 4 years

Phase I – Existing Condition Assessment: Physical and Non-Physical Condition Evaluation (Est. 1.5 Yrs: July 2007 – December 2008)

Phase II – Future Landscape Exploration: Future Land Use Scenario Development and Assessment (Est. 2 Yrs: January 2009 – December 2010)

Phase III – Building a Clear and Shared Regional Growth Framework (Est. 6 months: January 2011 – June 2011)

Purpose To be the culmination of the non-physical existing conditions evaluation of “Going Places – An Integrated Land Use Vision for the Miami Valley Region” To present the results of the 2040 population and employment forecasts To estimate future 2040 land use demand based on the continuation of existing population, demographic, and development trends

To be the culmination of the non-physical existing conditions evaluation of “Going Places – An Integrated Land Use Vision for the Miami Valley Region”

To present the results of the 2040 population and employment forecasts

To estimate future 2040 land use demand based on the continuation of existing population, demographic, and development trends

Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau Ohio Department of Development Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services Ohio EPA, Division of Surface Water National Center for Education Statistics Local Sources including: County Auditors Local School Districts Local Water Facilities Correctional Facilities

U.S. Census Bureau

Ohio Department of Development

Ohio Department of Jobs and Family Services

Ohio EPA, Division of Surface Water

National Center for Education Statistics

Local Sources including:

County Auditors

Local School Districts

Local Water Facilities

Correctional Facilities

Introduction Methodology Socio-Economic Projections Land Use Demand Projections Socio-Economic Projections Population Employment Land Use Demand Projections Base Data and Assumptions Results Report Structure

Introduction

Methodology

Socio-Economic Projections

Land Use Demand Projections

Socio-Economic Projections

Population

Employment

Land Use Demand Projections

Base Data and Assumptions

Results

Methodology – Population Forecast County level projection from 2000 to 2040 The population projections from 2010 to 2030 are taken directly from the Ohio Department of Development’s county-level population projections MVRPC extended these projections to 2040

County level projection from 2000 to 2040

The population projections from 2010 to 2030 are taken directly from the Ohio Department of Development’s county-level population projections

MVRPC extended these projections to 2040

Methodology – Employment Forecast Two employment projections were calculated – one high, one low – for Greene, Miami, and Montgomery counties Lower level projection is from the Long Range Transportation Plans, extended to 2040 Upper level projection calculated in two stages Short-term to 2010 Long-term to 2040 For the three cities in Warren County, projections to 2030 were obtained from OKI, extended to 2040 All projections were made at the county level, then divided into SIC categories

Two employment projections were calculated – one high, one low – for Greene, Miami, and Montgomery counties

Lower level projection is from the Long Range Transportation Plans, extended to 2040

Upper level projection calculated in two stages

Short-term to 2010

Long-term to 2040

For the three cities in Warren County, projections to 2030 were obtained from OKI, extended to 2040

All projections were made at the county level, then divided into SIC categories

Population Forecasts Between 2000 and 2040, the Region’s population is expected to grow by less than 3%

Between 2000 and 2040, the Region’s population is expected to grow by less than 3%

Employment Forecasts At the upper end of the range, regional employment could increase by almost 19% between 2000 and 2040 At the lower end of the range, employment could increase by only 5% between 2000 and 2040.

At the upper end of the range, regional employment could increase by almost 19% between 2000 and 2040

At the lower end of the range, employment could increase by only 5% between 2000 and 2040.

Methodology – Land Use Demand Followed methods presented in Planner’s Estimating Guide: Projecting Land-Use and Facility Needs by Arthur C. Nelson Based on the assumption that development would continue at the same densities and intensities that were represented in 2007 Projections calculated for 5 categories: Residential Employment Facilities Education Water and Wastewater Utilities

Followed methods presented in Planner’s Estimating Guide: Projecting Land-Use and Facility Needs by Arthur C. Nelson

Based on the assumption that development would continue at the same densities and intensities that were represented in 2007

Projections calculated for 5 categories:

Residential

Employment

Facilities

Education

Water and Wastewater Utilities

Base Data and Planning Assumptions: Residential Land Use Projections calculated separately for multi-family and single-family housing All 2007 densities, persons per household, and vacancy rates were held constant to 2040

Projections calculated separately for multi-family and single-family housing

All 2007 densities, persons per household, and vacancy rates were held constant to 2040

Base Data and Planning Assumptions: Employment Related Land Use Since two employment projections were calculated, two land use projections for land related to employment was calculated 2007 Square footage per employee, floor area ratios (FARs), and vacancy rates were held constant to 2040

Since two employment projections were calculated, two land use projections for land related to employment was calculated

2007 Square footage per employee, floor area ratios (FARs), and vacancy rates were held constant to 2040

Base Data and Planning Assumptions: Public Facility Land Use Future land use demand for fire/emergency medical services, and police facilities were based on projected functional population and current levels of service All other public facilities were not projected but held constant to 2040

Future land use demand for fire/emergency medical services, and police facilities were based on projected functional population and current levels of service

All other public facilities were not projected but held constant to 2040

Base Data and Planning Assumptions: Educational Land Use Only public primary & secondary schools’ acreage was projected to 2040 Enrollment data for primary, secondary, and post-secondary schools was obtained from National Center for Education Statistics Building square footage data was obtained directly from the school districts Levels of service for facility space/student came from lower range of Ohio School Facilities Commission’s guidelines

Only public primary & secondary schools’ acreage was projected to 2040

Enrollment data for primary, secondary, and post-secondary schools was obtained from National Center for Education Statistics

Building square footage data was obtained directly from the school districts

Levels of service for facility space/student came from lower range of Ohio School Facilities Commission’s guidelines

Base Data and Planning Assumptions: Water and Wastewater Utilities Land Use Capacities for water and wastewater at the county level were determined to be sufficient for future demand, therefore additional land for these types of facilities was not allocated in projections for 2040 Local demands may differ and so additional future land may be needed

Capacities for water and wastewater at the county level were determined to be sufficient for future demand, therefore additional land for these types of facilities was not allocated in projections for 2040

Local demands may differ and so additional future land may be needed

Land Use Demand Projection Overall, the Region could need between 7,544 and 16,412 additional acres of development by 2040, approximately one to two times the area of WPAFB Warren County is expected to see the largest increase in need Montgomery County is expected to increase only by between 0.2% and 3.0%

Overall, the Region could need between 7,544 and 16,412 additional acres of development by 2040, approximately one to two times the area of WPAFB

Warren County is expected to see the largest increase in need

Montgomery County is expected to increase only by between 0.2% and 3.0%

For More Information Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning at [email_address] Katy Bowman, Research Associate at [email_address]

Martin Kim, Director of Regional Planning at [email_address]

Katy Bowman, Research Associate at [email_address]