Climate Change and Transportation Planning

Climate Change and Transportation Planning
Ohio
July 19, 2011

Our Agenda Today
Introductions/Opening Remarks
Overview on Basics of Climate Science (Jeff Houk)
Tools for Quantifying GHG emissions and Key Considerations (Jeff Houk)
Overview of Climate Change Efforts in Ohio
MPO and DOT Climate Change Efforts and Issues - roundtable discussion
Climate Change and the Transportation Planning Process (Jim Thorne)
GHG Mitigation Strategies (Diane Turchetta)
Adaptation in Transportation Planning (Jim, Diane)
Climate Change in Transportation Planning - Small Groups
Q & A

Climate Science – Jeff Houk

Tools for Quantifying GHG emissions and Key Considerations - Jeff Houk

Overview of Climate Change related efforts in Ohio – Jim Thorne, moderator
Presentation from ODOT on Climate Change Related Activities: Tim Hill, Office of Environmental Services Administrator, Ohio Department of Transportation
Presentation from Ohio University on GHG inventory project: Kevin Crist
Presentation from Akron MPO to discuss climate change in Transportation Plan: Curtis Baker

Roundtable discussion of what each agency has done related to climate change
Each agency representative provides overview and examples to address questions:
Is climate change addressed in your planning process?
Examples of how climate change is evident in planning process, connections to current efforts, or possible future activities.
Challenges to incorporating climate change into transportation planning.

Lets Break for Lunch

Climate Change and the Transportation Planning Process

Transportation: Mitigation and Adaptation
GHG Mitigation
Slow rate of change and reduce impacts
Climate Change Adaptation
Plan for and deal with expected impacts

Multiple Transportation Strategies to Reduce GHG
Raise vehicle energy efficiency
Reduce carbon content of fuels
Reduce VMT
Land use
Improve system and operational efficiencies
Construction, Maintenance, and Agency Operations

“Two Legs of the Stool”
Transportation System Efficiencies
Traffic flow improvements
ITS/Management and Operations
Improved Intermodal connections
Travel (by SOV) Activity Reduction
Reducing VMT
Land Use strategies
Bike/ped
Transit
Pricing

Transportation Planning Factors
(A) support the economic vitality of the metropolitan area
(global competitiveness, productivity, and efficiency)
(B) increase the safety for motorized and nonmotorized users
(C) increase the security for motorized and nonmotorized users
(D) increase the accessibility and mobility of people and for freight
(E) protect and enhance the environment, promote energy conservation, improve the quality of life, and promote consistency between transportation improvements and State and local planned growth and economic development patterns
(F) enhance the integration and connectivity of the transportation system, across and between modes, for people and freight;
(G) promote efficient system management and operation
(H) emphasize the preservation of the existing transportation system.

23 U.S.C.134 and 49 U.S.C. 5303
. . .national policy that the MPO designated for each urbanized area is to carry out a continuing, cooperative, and comprehensive multimodal transportation planning process, including the development of a metropolitan transportation plan and a transportation improvement program (TIP), that encourages and promotes the safe and efficient development, management, and operation of surface transportation systems to serve the mobility needs of people and freight (including accessible pedestrian walkways and bicycle transportation facilities) and foster economic growth and development, while minimizing transportation-related fuel consumption and air pollution;
23CFR450.300

Planning Factors
Economic vitality
Accessibility and mobility
Protect and enhance the environment
Safety
Security
Promote energy conservation
Improve quality of life
Consistency between transportation and planned growth and economic development
Efficient system management and operation
Enhance integration and connectivity
Preservation of existing system

Linkage Opportunities in Planning Regulation
Energy and environmental concerns
Integrated transportation system, system preservation, safety and security
Transportation demand and system management strategies
Consultation
Integrating Climate Change into the Transportation Planning Process, FHWA, 2008

Integrated multimodal system
Transit, multimodal & intermodal, pedestrian walkways & bike facilities
Operational and management strategies
Environmental mitigation
Consultation
23 CFR 450.322
Transportation Plan

www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climatechange/index.htm

Overview of Current Practice
Acknowledge connection between transportation and climate change
Mitigation of GHG emissions
(vision – goals – policies – strategies)
Performance measures
Related to GHG emissions
Quantifying GHG emissions
Emerging: tools, methods, data

Climate Change in Planning
Integrate land use
Processes
Step 1: Stakeholder Identification and Initial Outreach
Components
Link funding
Link funding
Coordinate
Stakeholder Outreach
Step 2: Establish Vision, Goals, and Objectives
Step 5: Develop Alternative Plan Scenarios
Step 4: Evaluate Deficiencies
Step 3: Define Performance Criteria and Data Needs
Step 6: Evaluate Alternatives & Select Preferred Alternative
Feedback
Feedback
Feedback
Performance Measures
Trends and Challenges
Vision, Goals, and Trends
Strategies and Improvement Projects

Climate Change and the Planning Process
Coordinate
Existing and new interested parties and stakeholders
Use the planning process as a forum to educate the public
Integrate Land Use
Cross linkages with land use plans
Invest in visioning up front to save time and resources in later planning stages
Link Funding
Prioritize projects using climate change performance measures

Where Climate Change May Show Up in Plans:
Vision and Goals
Trends and Challenges
Strategies and Improvement Projects

Actions from One MPO Plan
Baltimore: Transportation Outlook 2035, 2007
Environmental Stewardship Section of Plan
Specific strategies that will reduce GHG emissions include:
Truck stop electrification
Incident management
Alternative fuel vehicle purchases
Park-and-ride lot improvements
Rideshare coordination
Teleworkpromotion

Integration of Climate Change Considerations in Statewide and Regional Transportation Planning
USDOT Center for Climate Change
Case Studies and Proceedings
TRB Panel
AMPO Conference
Climate Change in Transportation Planning
Vision and long range planning
Forecasts, data and performance measures
Public involvement
Collaboration with partners
Project selection
NY State
PSRC
MWCOG
BRMPO
NEG/ECP

Integration of Climate Change Considerations
USDOT, July 2009

Incorporating Climate ChangeConsiderations into Transportation Planning
TRR 2219, TRB

Vision
GHG emissions, mitigation, adaptation
Climate change facts
Goals, Objectives, and Performance Measures
Current goals that support GHG reduction
GHG mitigation (with policy approval)
Likely effects of climate change on existing goals
GHG reduction targets
Performance measures
TRR 2219, TRB

Analysis
Incorporate GHG analysis into process
Long term urban form/land use effects on GHG
Collect data related to assessing vulnerability
Cost effectiveness of mitigation strategies
Identify Strategies
Identify potential adaptation strategies
Scenario Planning – climate change scenario
GHG Reduction Strategies in existing process (CMP)
Evaluation
GHG emissions mitigation and adaptation as criteria
TRR 2219, TRB

Incorporating climate change considerations into the planning process would provide the opportunity for transportation planners and decision makers to best develop the most cost effective strategies in the context of all the other goals that are guiding the planning process.
Incorporating Climate Change Considerations into Transportation Planning
Nicholas Schmidt and Michael D. Meyer

Climate Change – Model Language inTransportation Plans, FHWA, 2010
State and Regional Transportation Plans
What is climate change?
How does transportation contribute to climate change?
Why should transportation plans address climate change?
How does the plan address climate change?

Transportation Outlook 2040Mid America Regional Council
Regional Vision:
Greater Kansas City is a sustainable region that increases the vitality of our society, economy, and environment for current residents and future generations.
Transportation Vision:
A safe, balanced, regional multimodal transportation system that is coordinated with land-use planning, supports equitable access to opportunities, and protects the environment.

Transportation Outlook 2040Mid America Regional Council
Transportation System Goals:
Accessibility - Maximize mobility and access to opportunity for all area residents
Climate Change & Energy Use** - Decrease the use of fossil fuels through reduced travel demand, technology advancements and a transition to renewable energy sources
Economic Vitality - Support an innovative, competitive 21st-century economy
Environment - Protect and restore our region's natural resources (land, water and air) through proactive environmental stewardship
Place Making** - Coordinate transportation and land-use planning as means to create quality places in existing and developing areas, and strengthen the quality of the region
Public Health** - Facilitate healthy, active living
Safety & Security - Improve safety and security for all transportation users
System Condition - Ensure transportation system is maintained in good condition
System Performance** - Manage the system to achieve reliable and efficient performance

**New plan goals for Transportation Outlook 2040

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY USE – Decrease the use of fossil fuels through reduced travel demand, technology advancements, and a transition to renewable energy sources.
Objectives:
Reduce regional transportation‐related greenhouse gas emissions.
Reduce regional transportation‐related energy use derived from fossil fuels.
Strategies: See chapter 10.0 Environmental Integration for additional detail.

MARC Climate Change Strategies
DEVELOP REGIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION PLAN
INCLUDE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY CONSIDERATIONS IN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND PROGRAMMING
IMPROVE MANAGEMENT OF EXISTING SYSTEM
INCREASE EFFICIENCY
REDUCE VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED (VMT)
LAND‐USE INTEGRATION
IMPLEMENT METROGREEN TRAILS AND GREENWAYS SYSTEM
IMPLEMENT THE CLEAN AIR ACTION PLAN

DEVELOP REGIONAL CLIMATE PROTECTION PLANSpecific transportation‐related strategies:
a. Incorporate energy conservation, use of renewable energy, and reductions in GHG into the transportation project solicitation and funding processes.
b. Adjust methodologies and models for quantification of transportation‐related greenhouse gas emissions.
c. Work with local governments to include transportation‐related greenhouse gas reductions strategies in their policies and ordinances, such as:
Encourage eco‐driving.
Encourage carpooling (e.g., RideShare).
Allow employees to telecommute.
Ramp up speed limit enforcement.
Install LED traffic lights.
Use low greenhouse‐gas emissions pavement and paving practices.
Adopt policies to facilitate the development of compact, mixed‐use, walkable communities.

INCREASE EFFICIENCYSpecific implementation strategies:
Conduct planning and strengthen incentives for alternative fuel infrastructure needed to support alternative‐fuel vehicle technology implementation.
b. Educate stakeholders on vehicle fuel efficiency and alternative‐fuel vehicles.
c. Secure grant resources for the promotion and support of fuel efficiency and alternative fuel vehicles.

MARC Plan Performance Measures

Climate Change Performance Measures, MARC

MARC: Performance Measures & Progress Report

Tracking Performance Measures, MARC

Transportation Outlook 2040 Major Strategies
• Maximize use of existing infrastructure
• Improve connectivity and access
• Promote non-motorized transportation options
• Preserve, enhance, and expand regional transit and paratransit services
• Integrate land‐use and transportation planning
• Enhance, preserve and connect high‐quality natural resources

Sustainable Communities Partnership
DOT, EPA, HUD
Improve access to affordable housing, provide more transportation options and lower transportation costs while protecting the environment
Encourages livability principles to be incorporated into federal programs and funding.
Achieve our economic, social, and environmental goals most effectively when we work on them together.

HUD/DOT/EPA Sustainable Communities Partnership
Better coordinate federal transportation, environmental protection, and housing investments and identify strategies that support the Partnership’s Guiding Principles

Six Livability Principles of the Sustainability Partnership

www.sustainablecommunities.gov

Livability in Transportation
Using the quality, location and type of transportation facilities and services to help achieve broader community goals such as access to good jobs, affordable housing, quality schools, and safe streets
Livability, sustainability, smart growth, walkable communities, new urbanism, healthy neighborhoods, active living, transit oriented development, complete streets,

Another Definition, sort of
www.wordle.net/

Livable Communities
More efficient use of resources
Increase accessibility
Improve connections and options
Reduce energy use
Environmental benefits
Health and Social benefits
Livable Communities are where people have access to many different forms of transportation and affordable housing…..” U.S. DOT Secretary, Ray LaHood

A New Resource

Atlanta, GA—Livable Centers Initiative (LCI)
LCI program initiated in 1999 to better link transportation and land use planning with long-term goals of VMT and congestion reduction and improved air quality.
Awards grants to prepare plans to enhance existing centers and corridors.
More than 100 studies had been completed, representing nearly $9 million in planning assistance funding.

Opportunities to Address Livability
Opportunities to Address Climate Change
Planning for:
Grid street patterns, short blocks, streetscapes
Transit and transit supportive land use
Planning for bike and pedestrian travel
Land use (as it supports transportation and vice versa)
System efficiencies
Travel Demand Management

Transportation and Land Use: A Two-Way Street
TRANSPORTATION
LAND USE
Accessibility
Supply
Density
Diversity
Design
Accessibility
Demand

Land Use and Travel
Density
Diversity
Design
Destination accessibility
Distance to transit
Demographics
Development scale
Demand management

Making the Land Use Connection
Scenario Planning
Integrating transportation and land use plans
Context Sensitive Solutions
Align regional goals, policies and programs
LRP supports regional or corridor plan or vision
Partnership efforts with local agencies
Technical assistance for integrated plans
Transportation project selection criteria consistent with Comprehensive Plan goals
Financial incentives for local actions to support vision

Examples of Scenario Planning Applications
Puget Sound Regional Council
Focus growth in bigger cities
Focus growth in smaller cities and towns
Continue as planned

Gainesville, Florida
Rip Van Winkle Technique
Source: Marlie Sanderson
North Central Florida Regional Planning Council

Photo MontageDover & Kohl

North Central Florida
Regional Planning Council

NCFRPC measures used to evaluate scenarios
Vehicle miles of travel
Average trip length
Transit ridership
Amount of farmland converted
Air quality
Energy consumption
Percent Population Served by Transit
Amount of New Land Consumed
Congested Lane Miles

Photo MontageUrban Advantage

Capital District Transportation Committee – Albany, NY
Source: Christopher O’Neill, CDTC

CDTC Linkages

Scenario Planning and Climate Change

Scenario Planning: Where and How We Might Live

Indicators Used to Compare Scenarios

CCMPO Scenario Indicators

Burlington, VT Scenarios

FHWA Land Use Tool Kit
www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/landuse/

ICMA/Smart Growth Network
ICMA’s membership has called sustainability which they define as balancing economic development, environmental protection, and social equity goals while maintaining financial viability, “the issue of our age.”

Applying smart growth principles to climate concerns on the local and regional levels:
Create more sustainable and resilient communities
Green the local economy
Engage the community in the climate change planning process
Approach climate change planning on a regional level
Address transportation through transit-oriented development and complete streets
Promote density through infill development and brownfield redevelopment
Adopt green building policies
Preserve and create green space
Plan for climate adaptation.

Approach Climate Change Planning on a Regional Level
Plan for Climate Change Adaptation

Transportation Planning for Sustainability

Sustainability Case Studies

Sustainability Guidebook Case Study Example

What Might a Planner Do Now?
Engage in topic discussions
Recognize connections to transportation
Explore strategies to reduce GHG emissions
Quantify baseline CO2 emissions
Transportation Research Record 2119, TRB

Possible Climate Change Related Efforts
Address climate change within context of Planning Factors.
Educate planning partners on climate change issues and implications.
Discuss climate change within Plan (mitigation and adaptation).
Examine existing plan goals for connections to GHG mitigation and adaptation.
Develop GHG related performance measures.
Recognize existing plan strategies with GHG mitigation implications (bike/ped, transit, system efficiencies, scenario planning, etc.).
Develop GHG mitigation strategies/policies.
Quantify GHG emissions, develop baseline inventory.
Recognize co-benefits: climate change, livability, energy conservation/security, sustainability, congestion relief, etc.

Climate Change and Transportation – Mitigation Strategies
Ohio Workshop
July 19, 2011

Transportation-RelatedGHG Emissions*
* Includes bunker fuels
Source: U.S. EPA, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 (U.S. EPA, 2009)

What is the full array of transportation strategies to reduce GHG?
Examples
Higher CAFE standards
CA’s low carbon fuel standard
Less travel, could be in part due to land use changes
Signalization, ITS, Eco-driving
Materials, maintenance practices
Five GHG “legs”
Vehicle efficiency
Low-carbon fuels
VMT Reductions (including land use)
Vehicle/System Operations
Construction, Maintenance, and Agency Operations

Co-Benefits of GHG Mitigation Strategies
Most of the strategies to reduce GHG emissions also reduce transportation energy consumption
Energy consumption
Reduce costs
Promote sustainability

Produced by the U.S. DOT Climate Change Center
Analyzes:
Transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels and trends
Strategies for reducing these emissions
Scope:
Full range of strategies
All transportation modes
Primarily synthesis
GHG reduction, costs, co-benefits, impact on DOT goals, key interactions
DOT Report to Congress
Mandated by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/32000/32700/32779/DOT_Climate_Change_Report_-_April_2010_-_Volume_1_and_2.pdf

System Efficiency
*Construction emissions are not included in the baseline. 15-18 million metric tons corresponds to 0.7-0.8% of U.S. transport GHGs. **These values are from the Moving Cooler Study. The DOT report did not quantify these strategies as more work is underway at FHWA.

Reduce carbon-intensive travel activity

How much can transportation strategies reduce GHG?
Presents base case + 3 scenarios for transportation GHG reductions
Base case: +28% in transportation GHG, 2010-2050
Low scenario: -17% in transportation GHG, 2010-2050
Mid scenario: -35% in transportation GHG, 2010-2050
High scenario: -65% in transportation GHG, 2010-2050
High scenario: rapid tech progress, aggressive emission standards, 80 mpg for cars, transition to electric and hydrogen vehicles well underway by 2050, auto feebates, carbon pricing, eco-driving, land use policies, congestion pricing, PATP auto insurance, automated highways in 2050 on major routes, etc.
GHG reductions are roughly equal from (a) vehicle efficiency; (b) low-carbon fuel; and (c) all other strategies combined.
http://www.pewclimate.org/publications/
reducing-ghg-emissions-from-transportation

TRB Special Report 307
TRB Special Report 307 examines the potential for policies to yield major changes in transportation energy use and emissions trends by policy measures targeting cars and light trucks, medium and heavy trucks, and commercial airliners. According to the committee that produced the report, it will take more than tougher fuel economy standards for U.S. transportation to significantly cut national petroleum use over the next half century. It will likely require a combination of measures that foster consumer and supplier interest in vehicle fuel economy, alternative fuels, and a more efficient transportation system.
http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/sr/sr307.pdf

More than Vehicles and Fuels: Achieving 70% LDV GHG Reduction by 2050 requires 100 mpgge LDV Fleet + 10% Operational Efficiency + Lower VMT Growth (1%/year)

Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035
U.S. light car and truck salesmillions
Projections
History
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011

Solar Panels for Highway Lighting – Oregon DOT
594 solar panels produce 122,000 KWH/year to light interchange
Avoids nearly 43 metric tons of GHG/year from normal electricity
$1.28 M project in operation for over a year
PPP of OR DOT, PGE, and US Bank, using state and federal tax credits
Could be a model for other DOTs
ORDOT planning 2 additional projects
www.oregonsolarhighway.com

Washington State: West Coast Green
(Electric) Highway
WSDOT is using a PPP to provide “Quick Charge” stations for electric vehicles along I-5 corridor
$1.32 million seed funding from US DOT grant
Target completion of EV stations: 10/31/11
9 stations along I-5 and SR-2, from OR border to Canadian border
Coordination with Oregon DOT and, eventually, California
Pooled fund study opportunity: Strategies and Best Practices to Support Commercialization of EV and Infrastructure
www.westcoastgreenhighway.com

Summary
Many strategies are needed to reduce transport GHG. No silver bullet. Will need full mix of strategies including:
Maximize energy efficiency of current vehicle technology
Decarbonize vehicles and fuels world-wide
Adopt pricing measures to reward conservation and tech innovation
Push “eco driving” and system/speed management
Adopt more efficient land use
Support carpools & vanpools, biking, walking, transit use, trip chaining, telecommuting
Adopt low carbon, energy-conserving strategies in construction, maintenance, and agency operations
Retrofit legacy fleets to reduce PM and black carbon
Implement wide-ranging freight technology and logistics improvements

Sustainable Transport & Climate Change Team
Mike Culp, Team Leader, Michael.Culp@dot.gov
John Davies, JohnG.Davies@dot.gov, GHG emissions analysis, modeling, performance measures
Connie Hill Galloway, Connie.Hill@dot.gov, sustainability, brownfields and hazardous waste sites
Heather Holsinger, Heather.Holsinger@dot.gov, sustainability, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis, energy
Rob Hyman, Robert.Hyman@dot.gov, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis
Rob Kafalenos, Robert.Kafalenos@dot.gov, adaptation, energy
Becky Lupes, Rebecca.Lupes@dot.gov, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis, NEPA
Diane Turchetta, Diane.Turchetta@dot.gov, GHG emissions analysis, energy
FHWA Highways and Climate Change Website:
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/index.htm

Adaptation
“Actions by individuals or systems to avoid, withstand, or take advantage of current and projected climate changes and impacts. Adaptation decreases a system’s vulnerability, or increases its resilience to impacts.”
--Pew Center on Climate Change
The potential effects on transportation fall into three main categories:
Sea level effects
Storm effects
Temperature effects

Flooded roadways in Houston
Why be Concerned about Climate Change Impacts?
Design life of transportation infrastructure: decades or longer
As climate changes, our infrastructure will need to evolve to handle new conditions
Each region has unique transportation assets, and faces different vulnerabilities and risks
What are the State’s risks?

Climate Change Impacts of Greatest Relevance for Transportation
• Increases in very hot days and heat waves,
• Increases in Arctic temperatures,
• Rising sea levels,
• Increases in intense precipitation events, and
• Increases in hurricane intensity

Potential Climate Changes and Transportation Impacts
Increases in very hot days and heat waves
Operations: limit construction activity due to health and safety concerns
Infrastructure: thermal expansion, pavement integrity
Increases in intense precipitation events
Operations: Traffic disruptions, evacuation route flooding
Infrastructure: Roadway flooding, road washout, landslides/mudslides, scouring.

Implications for Design
Changes in bridge height
Changes in bridge foundation and superstructure
Changes in materials specifications
Changes in suspended and cable-stay bridges to withstand more severe wind and turbulence
Changes in culvert design, capacity, and location
Changes in slope design
Changes in pavement drainage systems

Implications for Operations
Pavement rutting and rail buckling
Longer construction season
Closures and detours due to rock slides, soil erosion, flooding
Speed reductions
Flooding of culverts
Change in weight restrictions
More grass cutting/less snow plowing
Work crew limitations during severe heat periods

TRB SR 290
Climate change will affect transportation primarily
through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes, such as very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges
and land subsidence.
The impacts will vary by mode of transportation
and region of the country, but they will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems.
State and local governments and private
infrastructure providers should incorporate climate change into their long-term capital improvement plans, facility designs, maintenance practices, operations, and emergency response plans

SR 290 Finding
The past several decades of historical regional climate patterns commonly used by transportation planners to guide their operations and investments may no longer be a reliable guide for future plans.
In particular, future climate will include new classes
(in terms of magnitude and frequency) of weather and climate extremes, such as record rainfall and record heat waves, not experienced in modern times . .

TRB Special Report 290
Design standards will need to be evaluated.
Transportation planners will need to consider climate change and its effects on infrastructure investments.
Planning timeframes may need to extend beyond the next 20 or 30 years.
Institutional arrangements for transportation planning and operations will need to be changed to incorporate cross jurisdictional and regional cooperation.

SR 290 Recommendation
Recommendation 1:
Federal, state, and local governments, in collaboration with owners and operators of infrastructure such as ports and airports and private railroad and pipeline companies, should inventory critical transportation infrastructure in light of climate change projections to determine whether, when, and where projected climate changes in their regions might be consequential.

FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Activities
108
Ohio Climate Change Workshop
July 19, 2011
Diane Turchetta
FHWA, Office of Natural Environment

FHWA and Climate Change Adaptation
Goal: systematic consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making
Systems level (Metropolitan, Statewide planning) & individual projects, as appropriate
Motivations
Internal: protect integrity of transportation investments, safety
External: CEQ guidance on addressing climate change in NEPA and Adaptation Planning
Interdisciplinary cooperation is key to effort
Represents cooperative effort of multiple offices in FHWA, U.S. DOT, AASHTO, AMPO, and partnerships with science agencies such as USGS
109

Overview of FHWA Climate Change Adaptation Resources and Activities
Providing information, outreach; developing and promoting use of tools and methodologies; application
FHWA Agency-wide Adaptation Working Group – draft strategy underway
Potential Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Transportation Infrastructure: Mid-Atlantic Focus (2008)
Two Workshops on Impacts of Global Climate Change on Hydraulics, Hydrology, and Transportation with CTE at NC State University (2005 and 2006)
Regional Climate Change Effects: Useful Information for Transportation Agencies [Climate Effects Typology] (2010)
FHWA/AASHTO State DOT climate Change Workshops
Vulnerability and risk assessment conceptual model (2010) and associated Pilots (ongoing)
Gulf Coast Study: Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure
Phase 1 – Gulf-wide (2008); Phase 2 – Mobile, AL (ongoing)
Adaptation peer exchanges (2008, 2009, 2011, etc.)
110

FHWA Agency-Wide Adaptation Work
Climate Change Adaptation Working Group formed in 2009 to discuss adaptation considerations in the highway context with representatives from across FHWA offices:
Planning, Environment, and Realty
Infrastructure
Operations
Safety
Federal Lands Highways
Developed draft adaptation strategy to outline:
Key climate adaptation areas in which FHWA will focus its attention
How FHWA intends to help transportation agencies adapt
111

Regional Climate Change Effects (2010)
Report synthesizes information on climate change projections for transportation decision makers
Snapshot: Summarizes recent science
Projected changes by region
Annual, Seasonal Temperature (change in oF)
Seasonal Precipitation (% change)
Where information exists:
Sea level rise, Storm activity
Also includes information at local, state scales
Received assistance from climate experts at NOAA, USGS, DOE, etc.
112
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/climate_effects/

Projections of Regional Temperature
Projections of near-term, mid-term, end-of-century are provided for each region within the report using:
USGCRP data (Tables, Appendix B figures)
Report also includes results of other studies
113

Projected Increases in Annual Temperature
114

How Can This Information Be Applied?
Inform planning efforts with a consistent set of projections
Help understand which parts of the planning area may be susceptible to sea level rise, for example
Starting point for discussion of potential future changes – but information too broad / uncertain to make definitive decisions on specific projects
Can inform consideration of vulnerability of key assets
Projections by definition are somewhat uncertain
Regional projections mask differences within a region
Use of this information may vary by specialty (e.g., engineering, planning, etc.) and location
115

Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Conceptual Model
Goal: Help transportation decision makers identify vulnerable assets and adaptation strategies
most exposed to the threats from climate change; and/or
could result in the most serious consequences as a result of those threats
Conceptual model completed
Pilots - Use by State DOTs and MPOs (2010-2011)
Update the conceptual model
116
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/hep/climate/pilots.htm

117
Vulnerability/Risk Assessment Conceptual Model
Develop inventory of infrastructure assets
Gather climate data
Assess vulnerability and risk of assets to projected climate change
Analyze, prioritize adaptation options
Monitor and revisit

Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Locations
WASHINGTON
NEW JERSEY
Central New Jersey
New Jersey Coastal
Hampton Roads
VIRGINIA
CALIFORNIA
Oahu
San Francisco
HAWAII

Pilot: New Jersey DOT
Study Areas:
New Jersey Coastal
Central New Jersey
Partners:
New Jersey DOT
North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority,
South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization,
Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission,
New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection
119

Pilot: Washington State DOT
Statewide geographic scope
Studying WSDOT owned and managed facilities potentially at risk to a range of impacts:
Sea-level rise inundation areas
Rivers and stream channel migration, melt effects
Extreme temperature effects
Drought threats to wetland creation, mitigation sites, roadside vegetation, soil moisture/flux, invasive species, worker health, wildfire
Precipitation changes- threats to slope stabilization, stormwater management, erosion control, landslides, “road survivability”
Wildfire – safety, emergency response
120

Pilot: Virginia DOT
Focus on Hampton Roads
Asset Management, Security Perspective
Partners:
Virginia Transportation Research Council (VDOT)
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission,
UVA Center for Transportation Studies,
UVA Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems,
Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization
121

Pilot: Oahu MPO
Scope: Island of Oahu, HI
Consultant will perform risk assessment of identified transportation assets
Public input meetings
Partners:
Oahu MPO
HI DOT
HI Dept. of Business, Economic Development, and Tourism
HI State Civil Defense
City and County of Honolulu
U. of HI Center for Island Climate Adaptation and Policy
The Pacific Disaster Center
People’s Advocacy for Trails Hawaii
122

Pilot: Metropolitan Transportation Commission
Focus on San Francisco Bay
Complements a NOAA funded sub-regional project
Partners:
MTC,
CalTrans District 4,
San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission,
NOAA,
Association of Bay Area Governments,
Bay Area Air Quality Management District
123

Gulf Coast Project Examines Issues at Metropolitan Scale
Phase 1
Overview of climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure in central Gulf Coast (completed 2008)
Phase 2
Focus on one metropolitan area – Mobile, AL
Development of adaptation tools and strategies that will be transferable to other areas
Timeframe: 2010-2013
124

125
Gulf Coast StudyHighways Vulnerable to Relative Sea Level Rise
Baseline (Present Day)
4 Feet of Sea Level Rise
SAP 4.7
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis of U.S. DOT Data.

Gulf Coast 2 Study: Task Objectives
Task 1: Identify critical assets in Mobile
Task 2: Climate impacts
Develop climate information
Assess sensitivity of assets to climate stressors
Task 3: Determine vulnerability of critical assets
Broad assessment of vulnerability
In-depth vulnerability assessment of some of the most critical assets
Task 4: Develop risk management tool(s)
Task 5: Coordination with Planning Authorities and the Public
Ongoing
Task 6: Information dissemination and publication
126

Climate Change Adaptation Peer Exchanges
Peer Exchanges conducted in 2008 and 2009
Involved representatives of state DOTs and FHWA Division Offices to discuss climate change adaptation approaches with staff from FHWA Headquarters and AASHTO
Identified common barriers to adaptation efforts:
Information gaps (e.g., mapping and scenario modeling, funding opportunities)
Knowledge gaps (e.g., state legislature, environmental permitting agencies, developers, the public)
Lack of coordination (with federal and state agencies)
Lack of understanding of how to link existing efforts to adaptation strategies
Three peer exchanges planned for 2011-2012
127

What Are Possible Adaptation Responses?
Accommodate: Maintain and manage
Absorb increased maintenance / repair costs
Improve real-time response to severe events
Strengthen structures / protect facilities
Design changes when rebuilding / new investment
Promote buffers, sea walls, etc.
Relocate / avoid
Move key facilities
Site new facilities in less
vulnerable locations
Abandon and Disinvest
Enhance redundancy
Identify system alternatives
128

STRATEGIES FOR REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF SURFACE TRANSPORTATION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
AASHTO, 2009
Based on risk assessments, efforts to reduce risks could include:
retrofitting vulnerable facilities;
developing contingency plans in case of the interruption of transportation services;
ensuring emergency evacuation plans are in place and take climate risks into account;
identifying/protecting open space and wetlands to act as a buffer during severe precipitation;
ensuring future transportation facilities are designed and sited to minimize climate risks; and
maximizing efforts to reduce GHG emissions that contribute to climate change.

What are likely climate change effects you expect in Ohio?
And what might we do about them?

Sustainable Transport & Climate Change Team
Mike Culp, Team Leader, Michael.Culp@dot.gov
John Davies, JohnG.Davies@dot.gov, GHG emissions analysis, modeling, performance measures
Connie Hill Galloway, Connie.Hill@dot.gov, sustainability, brownfields and hazardous waste sites
Heather Holsinger, Heather.Holsinger@dot.gov, sustainability, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis, energy
Rob Hyman, Robert.Hyman@dot.gov, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis
Rob Kafalenos, Robert.Kafalenos@dot.gov, adaptation, energy
Becky Lupes, Rebecca.Lupes@dot.gov, adaptation, GHG emissions analysis, NEPA
Diane Turchetta, Diane.Turchetta@dot.gov, GHG emissions analysis, energy
131

Lessons Learned (so far)
Interdisciplinary cooperation is key
Need to include science information, engineering specifications, planning processes, etc.
Multi-disciplinary stakeholder communication is not easy
Understand existing decision-making processes and frameworks
Embrace the uncertainty
Must be comfortable with range of climate projections
Not all climate trends are clear
Community priorities are an integral part of a climate vulnerability assessment
Impacts and concerns will vary by region – no one-size-fits-all answers
132

Task 1: Identify Critical Transportation Systems
For each mode, which assets are “critical” to Mobile area
Determine subset of transportation network for vulnerability assessment and adaptive measures
Develop a process applicable to multiple transportation modes
Conduct a careful review of relevant transportation models
Collect data on relevant attributes of each asset
Develop GIS layers of critical transportation assets, for later study tasks
133

Task 2: Projected Climate Data
USGS providing statistically downscaled projections for T and P
4 to 7 Climate models (PCM, Hadley, …)
3 emission scenarios (A1fi, A2, B1); 3 time horizons out to 2100
Secondary variables calculated from daily T and P, e.g., 24-hr precip with 5%/yr prob
Sea level rise analysis
Range of recent global SLR scenarios used
Accounts for local subsidence
Storm Surge Modeling – ADCIRC
Range of storm intensities
Output includes surge distribution and dynamics
Wave Modeling – STWAVE
Inputs from ADCIRC output and boundary conditions
Outputs include key aspects of wave energy
Exposure of transportation systems will be assessed using a GIS analysis
134

Participants will be assigned to small groups to address the following Task/Questions:
Develop approach for consideration of climate change in your transportation planning process.
Please address the following questions as part of your approach:
What is your overall strategy or approach for addressing climate change?
What new (or expanded) activities would you undertake related to climate change?
How would you communicate or engage with your stakeholders on this issue?
How would climate change efforts be documented?
What new partners would you look to involve in your efforts?
What barriers do you anticipate?

Wrap-Up and Adjourn
Identify next steps in taking this information back to your agency and incorporating it into future transportation planning efforts.
What are your top 3 take aways from today?

Climate Change and Transportation Planning

by MVRPC on Aug 02, 2011

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

1 Embed 88

Statistics

Climate Change and Transportation Planning — Presentation Transcript