This figure shows the long-term evolution of oxygen isotope ratios during the Phanerozoiceon as measured in fossils, reported by Veizer et al. (1999), and updated online in 2004 . Such ratios reflect both the local temperature at the site of deposition and global changes associated with the extent of permanent continental glaciation. As such, relative changes in oxygen isotope ratios can be interpreted as rough changes in climate. Quantitative conversion between these data and direct temperature changes is a complicated process subject to many systematic uncertainties, however it is estimated that each 1 part per thousand change in δ18O represents roughly a 1.5-2 °C change in tropical sea surface temperatures (Veizer et al. 2000).
BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FRSA, FBPsS Chief Scout, Murgatroyd Communications & Consulting Inc Vancouver, June 27th 2011 Marriot Pinnacle Hotel – an RSA Fellows Event
“History is a mystery, but the future is clear…” Ben Bernanke
BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future This presentation will look at six current “revolutions” and their significance. The six revolutions are: Technology Global Economics Global power balances Demographics Climate Change & Water Personal Identity The underlying structure of these revolutions suggests… The consequences of understanding these interlocking pattern are..
Technology is Everywhere The iPad is the fastest growing technology ever to be sold – iPad 1 sold 1 million in 28 days (April 2010) and the iPad 2 sold 1 million in 3 days (March 2011) – a total of 19.5 million have been sold in 12 months The 10 billionth “app” for the iPhone/ iPad was downloaded on January 22nd 2011 at 1045 am 640 million Facebook users in 6 years In Q4 of 2010 Smart Phone shipments outstrip PC shipments 2:1
Adoption Speeds are Getting Faster(number of years to secure 80% penetration)
Technology is Changing IndustriesThe Forest Sector… Cellulosic Ethanol Pulp & Paper Nano Crystalline Cellulose Bio Active Paper & Packs Building Material Renewable diesel Aircraft Fuels Energy Bio Plastics Food Additives Bio Oils Methanol Textiles Renewable Tires using Lignin Bio Pharmaceuticals
Music / Movie Rental Industry iTunes has changed this industry, with over 5 billion downloads iTunes Store also has the largest music catalogue online, with over 8 million tracks. iTunes Store is now renting over 50,000 movies daily, turning it into the most popular movie store, too, with a catalogue of over 20,000 TV episodes, over 2,000 films, of which over 350+ are available in HD quality.
Health CareThe Robot-Biotech Revolution In Canada/US 75,000 robotic surgeries each year and growing at 12% CAGR in North America Nanotechnology products in health care now appearing: Drug delivery system Inner nano-bots monitoring systems Growing “organs” for transplant New neuroscience and biotech permitting new kinds of proesthetics
Technology Revolution Broadband based technologies are disruptive They are fundamentally changing service industries, e.g. Banking Travel Music and Movies Books Newspapers Education Digital and robotic technologies are increasingly disruptive. They are changing industries, e.g. Forestry Health care Manufacturing Logistics and supply chains
The Pattern Here.. A disruptive technology changes behaviour of large number of people which institutions and organization are initially slow to respond to Over time, new products and services emerge which change industries (e.g. itunes, iPad) Other sectors then are emboldened by developments in related sectors and seek to adopt/adapt New firms emerge which “get” the technology and create new products and services – e.g. yet2.com Over time. Established firms (Blockbuster) are replaced by new players (Netflix)
History Tells Us About This.. The S Curve’s History Horse replaced by the car Candles and gas lights replaced by electricity Silent films replaced cinema talkies, Videos replaced by PVO’s and DVDs, Blockbuster by Netflix Disruptive technologies create new classes of workers, new kinds of drivers for wealth and new kinds of organizations Social structure changes in line with technology, but generally slowly Speed of technological replacement of core societal technologies has been slow, but is now accelerating..
Workers Share of National Income (US)1947 - 2010
GDP Growth Doesn’t Equate to Genuine Happiness Growth
Other Data Confirm ThisNo Happier than when Truman was President of the US
The Dynamics Emerging BRIC’s economies are having a major impact on the global economy Brazil – now the 5th largest holder of US debt, will grow at an average of 4.4% annually between now and 2050 Russia - will grow at an average of 4 % annually between now and 2050 India - will grow at an average of 8.1% annually between now and 2050 China – the largest holder of US debt, will grow 9.3% in 2011 and average 5.9% to 2050 When we look at the economic “shape” of the world in 2050 it looks somewhat different from now…
Other Complications to the “Normal” Economic Order.. PIGS economies remain weak and vulnerable, especially Greece Japan will take a considerable time to restore economic health given its level of debt and the impact of the tsunami / earthquake which had a significant effect on global supply chains The middle east unrest (especially Syria) are having a destabilising effect on that regional economy and could have a medium term impact on oil prices and inflation US debt (Federal $14.3 trillion and growing / 48 US States in severe financial trouble) coupled with the inability of the political system to agree a strategy is extremely problematic Oil, commodity and food inflation will have a significant impact on the world economy, especially the world’s poor Structural sovereign debt is everywhere – we are headed to a decade or more of austerity in the developed world with major impacts on trade and employment Central bank balance sheets are bloated and will be adjusted down with higher interest rates, which will have a significant impact on global trade Labour supply in the developed world “tight” – and challenging. Global war for talent is “on”.
G-Zero for Global Institutions It’s a flat but lumpy economic world… Historically, the G7 (then the G8 and then the G20) met twice a year to adjust elements of the global economic strategy. The IMF and the World Bank were also “directed” through these meetings. These organizations are now dysfunctional – we live in the G-Zero age with no institution fully engaged/ able to step up to a significant transition, though the IMF and World Bank are seeking to fulfill this role. Our economic institutions are in the process of rebalancing and redefining their roles Meantime, we have a “an unusually uncertain environment” (Ben Bernanke) – code for “we’re flying blind”.
It’s Safe To Say.. We are witness to the beginning of the decline of the US as the worlds global super-power Vietnam Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya not military successes Economic power clearly in decline as the BRIC’s economies emerge Political “messy-ness” characterizes Washington Low rates of democratic participation (55-56% and as low as 49% in 1996), especially amongst some ethnic groups and fractionation of politics (T-Party, lobbying) Banking system in relative permanent state of uncertainty Low performance on PISA educational attainments – 24th in the world on mathematics (lower position than 2006) and 7th in the world on reading. Europe going through a major transition – EU 27 struggling to gain identity in a time of austerity and tension between Germany/France/UK on the one hand and the PIGS economies on the other as well as between the UK and Eurozone Former global powers of the G7 nations (US, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada) are shifting with some in serious economic trouble (US, Japan, Italy) and some seeking to punch globally above their weight (UK, Canada, France) and some unsure about their status (Italy)
The Post Washington Consensus(Birdsall and Fukuyama, March 2011 Foreign Affairs Vol. 90(2)) Post recession: The assumption that emerging economies could benefit from the stronger flow of foreign capital (“the foreign finance fetish”) has been questioned by the huge financial externalities imposed by foreign capital (and its volatility) for these economies. Regulated financial markets are just as important for the US and Europe as they are for the emerging economies Social safety nets make a significant difference to the speed / costs of post recession recovery Re-emergence of the importance of industrial policy Recognition that the “market” is one force and balancing this with government is essential An effective, quality public sector is a critical ingredient in the efficiency of post-capitalist market based economies The emergence of multi-polarity: Pole 1: US, Europe and Japan; Pole 2: Brazil, China, India and South Africa with many countries join one orother, depending on the issue.
Other Aspects of the World Are Also Changing Hans Rolling BBC 200 Countries / 200 years in 4 minutes
Shifts in the balance of power in Africa, Asia
Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)
Quickly growing middle class in Asia, India and Africa
Health quality rising in formerly unhealthy regions
Our Demographic Challenge Lowering world-wide of fertility, linked to growing health and wealth Many people in the developed world (but also in China and India) living longer Rising middle class in East will replace the buying power of the middle class in the west Costs of social programs (especially health) rising and debt levels in major economies higher Fewer people in work to pay taxes to support a growing number of people not in work Austerity likely, with a major impact on employment which in turn, encourages a shift to outsourcing…
Climate Change is Not NewIt Occurs Around every 1,500 Years
Does Appear to be Getting Warmer.. Though some suggests that data anomalies / Adjustments cause some of this warming. Others claim that the warming effectively stopped in 1998……
…and there is more atmospheric CO2 The current June 2011 CO2 levels are estimated at 390 ppm. The last time CO2was that high was around 3 million years ago, in the early Pliocene. Back then, CO2levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Fear is it will rise to 550 ppm by 2050 (unlikely).
US Water Sustainability Map(Darker the red, the more problematic)
Canada’s Water Situation in 2050 Per capita, Canadians are the planet's second-biggest water consumers, behind Americans. The average Canadian uses 335 litres per day -- more than double Europeans' usage. And Canadian water use is growing (by 25 per cent over the past two decades), while other developed countries, including the U.S., have seen consumption drop. Canada's water gluttony is starker still. Most of the 1.1 billion people worldwide who are water poor must survive on five litres per day. That's less than a Canadian uses to flush a toilet -- even of the low-flush variety.
Impacts of Climate Change on Canada’s Water Supply.. British Columbia Warm temperatures cause glacier retreat. (Glaciers supply water for irrigation, drinking and hydroelectric power. Runoff also maintains river habitat.) Precipitation is more intense, with greater winter rainfall. Lack of water resources lead to water conflicts. Prairie provinces Declining water resources due to melting glaciers and less snow cover in Rockies. More droughts, affecting crop irrigation, soil quality and wetland habitats. Changes in water quality due to low flows. Ontario Lower water levels in Great Lakes lead to increases in shipping costs and problems launching, operating boats. Water-borne pathogens carrying infectious diseases proliferate in higher water temperatures.
Quebec Flooding affects over 80 per cent of municipalities located on the waterfront. Extreme precipitation events and flooding overwhelm municipal sewer systems. St. Lawrence River fluctuations affect fisheries, wetlands, water supply, hydro power, navigation and marinas. Atlantic Provinces Rising sea levels cause erosion, flooding of coastal habitats. Storm, tidal surges increase, leading to more frequent flooding. Droughts affect quantity, quality and allocation of water for agriculture.
Four Generalized Response Scenarios(Probability in Brackets Judged by 60 Leading Thinkers / Years = Mean Arrival Dates of the Scenario)
Challenges to Our Sense of Identity We are experiencing a generation who confuse “tweeting” with meaning; Facebook friends with friendship, reality TV with reality Shifting from homo-sapien to homo-zapien Many search for meaning in relation to Family, community and society Self and personal identity Personal relationship Relationship to knowledge, information and wisdom
The Identity Revolution Sustaining the resilience of the human spirit Enabling spirituality and mindfulness Being happy in work, home, community Involvement in community Balancing the “egocentric” (a focus on “me/I”) with the allocenetric (a focus on the “us” and others) The identity challenge shows itself in: Language and thought Education The construct of “news” – substance versus “froth” and the fascination with “celebrity” Decline of religion Shifts in social institutions - marriage, family,
The “S” CURVES OF HISTORY Understanding the Implications
The S Curve and History The S curve is an established pattern in biology, physics, geology, economics, technology and other spheres It describes a dynamic in which an activity reaches a natural limit and then declines…or cannot recover from a major disruption For example, semiconductors on a single chip reached a physical limit, so we moved to dual processors.. Not deterministic – contingent, function of human agency and the maturity of the curve can be sustained by innovation…but The decisions of individuals do produce patterns in populations (e.g. demographics) which are S curve like..
This is an “In Between” Time Transition from a post modern/information age to a biotech/robotic age Transition from an age of abundance to one of austerity Transition from an age of “me” to an age of “who am I?” Transition from the text to the tweet and from newspapers to sound bits and digi-clips Transition from a robust, rich US dominated world to a declining/ weak US engaged world with China holding sway Transition from a community oriented society to a “self” oriented society Transition from established and meaningful global institutions to the G-Zero world
Understanding Transitions : Different Social Structures in Different Economic Ages
A New 21st Century Renaissance? The Medieval Renaissance Challenges to generally accepted boundaries of thought and action Redefining of who had power/authority Realignment of the power of the church and state Exploration, innovation and cultural enrichment New technology (printing) Reinvention of “self” New forms of expression – new forms of art, music, drama, poetry 21st Century Renaissance Realigning of social, political and economic boundaries Power shifting in terms of social democratic movements and the fractionation of politics New forms of religious beliefs and a new secularism Innovation, technological disruption with social consequences (e.g. social media, biotech, robotics) Reinvention of “self” and “followership” New forms of expression – social media, new forms of music and art, drama, film..
Let the journey continue!This presentation is available on Slideshare.com www.stephenmurgatroyd.com email@example.com www.renaissanceleaders.org