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Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
Six revolutions and their significance
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Six revolutions and their significance

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A Presentation to the Royal Society meeting in Vancouver, Monday, June 27th 2011. Due acknowledgements to sources.

A Presentation to the Royal Society meeting in Vancouver, Monday, June 27th 2011. Due acknowledgements to sources.

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  • This figure shows the long-term evolution of oxygen isotope ratios during the Phanerozoiceon as measured in fossils, reported by Veizer et al. (1999), and updated online in 2004 [1]. Such ratios reflect both the local temperature at the site of deposition and global changes associated with the extent of permanent continental glaciation. As such, relative changes in oxygen isotope ratios can be interpreted as rough changes in climate. Quantitative conversion between these data and direct temperature changes is a complicated process subject to many systematic uncertainties, however it is estimated that each 1 part per thousand change in δ18O represents roughly a 1.5-2 °C change in tropical sea surface temperatures (Veizer et al. 2000).
  • Transcript

    • 1. BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future
      Stephen Murgatroyd, PhD FRSA, FBPsS
      Chief Scout, Murgatroyd Communications & Consulting Inc
      Vancouver, June 27th 2011
      Marriot Pinnacle Hotel – an RSA Fellows Event
    • 2. “History is a mystery, but the future is clear…”
      Ben Bernanke
    • 3. BUILDING OUR FUTURE THROUGH UNDERSTANDING OUR PASTHow a Knowledge of Patterns Can Help Us Understand Our Future
      This presentation will look at six current “revolutions” and their significance. The six revolutions are:
      Technology
      Global Economics
      Global power balances
      Demographics
      Climate Change & Water
      Personal Identity
      The underlying structure of these revolutions suggests…
      The consequences of understanding these interlocking pattern are..
    • 4. Technology
      The First Revolution
    • 5. Technology is Everywhere
      The iPad is the fastest growing technology ever to be sold – iPad 1 sold 1 million in 28 days (April 2010) and the iPad 2 sold 1 million in 3 days (March 2011) – a total of 19.5 million have been sold in 12 months
      The 10 billionth “app” for the iPhone/ iPad was downloaded on January 22nd 2011 at 1045 am
      640 million Facebook users in 6 years
      In Q4 of 2010 Smart Phone shipments outstrip PC shipments 2:1
    • 6. Adoption Speeds are Getting Faster(number of years to secure 80% penetration)
    • 7. Technology is Changing IndustriesThe Forest Sector…
      Cellulosic Ethanol
      Pulp & Paper
      Nano Crystalline Cellulose
      Bio Active Paper & Packs
      Building Material
      Renewable diesel
      Aircraft Fuels
      Energy
      Bio Plastics
      Food Additives
      Bio Oils
      Methanol
      Textiles
      Renewable Tires using Lignin
      Bio Pharmaceuticals
    • 8. Music / Movie Rental Industry
      iTunes has changed this industry, with over 5 billion downloads
      iTunes Store also has the largest music catalogue online, with over 8 million tracks.
      iTunes Store is now renting over 50,000 movies daily, turning it into the most popular movie store, too, with a catalogue of over 20,000 TV episodes, over 2,000 films, of which over 350+ are available in HD quality.
    • 9. Health CareThe Robot-Biotech Revolution
      In Canada/US 75,000 robotic surgeries each year and growing at 12% CAGR in North America
      Nanotechnology products in health care now appearing:
      Drug delivery system
      Inner nano-bots monitoring systems
      Growing “organs” for transplant
      New neuroscience and biotech permitting new kinds of proesthetics
    • 10. Technology Revolution
      Broadband based technologies are disruptive
      They are fundamentally changing service industries, e.g.
      Banking
      Travel
      Music and Movies
      Books
      Newspapers
      Education
      Digital and robotic technologies are increasingly disruptive. They are changing industries, e.g.
      Forestry
      Health care
      Manufacturing
      Logistics and supply chains
    • 11. The Pattern Here..
      A disruptive technology changes behaviour of large number of people which institutions and organization are initially slow to respond to
      Over time, new products and services emerge which change industries (e.g. itunes, iPad)
      Other sectors then are emboldened by developments in related sectors and seek to adopt/adapt
      New firms emerge which “get” the technology and create new products and services – e.g. yet2.com
      Over time. Established firms (Blockbuster) are replaced by new players (Netflix)
    • 12. The Tech Bubble S Curve(Think RIM)
    • 13. History Tells Us About This..
      The S Curve’s History
      Horse replaced by the car
      Candles and gas lights replaced by electricity
      Silent films replaced cinema talkies, Videos replaced by PVO’s and DVDs, Blockbuster by Netflix
      Disruptive technologies create new classes of workers, new kinds of drivers for wealth and new kinds of organizations
      Social structure changes in line with technology, but generally slowly
      Speed of technological replacement of core societal technologies has been slow, but is now accelerating..
    • 14. Global economy
      Revolution 2
    • 15. US Debt to 2019
    • 16. Workers Share of National Income (US)1947 - 2010
    • 17. GDP Growth Doesn’t Equate to Genuine Happiness Growth
    • 18. Other Data Confirm ThisNo Happier than when Truman was President of the US
    • 19. The Dynamics
      Emerging BRIC’s economies are having a major impact on the global economy
      Brazil – now the 5th largest holder of US debt, will grow at an average of 4.4% annually between now and 2050
      Russia - will grow at an average of 4 % annually between now and 2050
      India - will grow at an average of 8.1% annually between now and 2050
      China – the largest holder of US debt, will grow 9.3% in 2011 and average 5.9% to 2050
      When we look at the economic “shape” of the world in 2050 it looks somewhat different from now…
    • 20.
    • 21. Other Complications to the “Normal” Economic Order..
      PIGS economies remain weak and vulnerable, especially Greece
      Japan will take a considerable time to restore economic health given its level of debt and the impact of the tsunami / earthquake which had a significant effect on global supply chains
      The middle east unrest (especially Syria) are having a destabilising effect on that regional economy and could have a medium term impact on oil prices and inflation
      US debt (Federal $14.3 trillion and growing / 48 US States in severe financial trouble) coupled with the inability of the political system to agree a strategy is extremely problematic
      Oil, commodity and food inflation will have a significant impact on the world economy, especially the world’s poor
      Structural sovereign debt is everywhere – we are headed to a decade or more of austerity in the developed world with major impacts on trade and employment
      Central bank balance sheets are bloated and will be adjusted down with higher interest rates, which will have a significant impact on global trade
      Labour supply in the developed world “tight” – and challenging. Global war for talent is “on”.
    • 22. G-Zero for Global Institutions
      It’s a flat but lumpy economic world…
      Historically, the G7 (then the G8 and then the G20) met twice a year to adjust elements of the global economic strategy. The IMF and the World Bank were also “directed” through these meetings.
      These organizations are now dysfunctional – we live in the G-Zero age with no institution fully engaged/ able to step up to a significant transition, though the IMF and World Bank are seeking to fulfill this role.
      Our economic institutions are in the process of rebalancing and redefining their roles
      Meantime, we have a “an unusually uncertain environment” (Ben Bernanke) – code for “we’re flying blind”.
    • 23. Global power balances
      Revolution 3
    • 24. It’s Safe To Say..
      We are witness to the beginning of the decline of the US as the worlds global super-power
      Vietnam Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya not military successes
      Economic power clearly in decline as the BRIC’s economies emerge
      Political “messy-ness” characterizes Washington
      Low rates of democratic participation (55-56% and as low as 49% in 1996), especially amongst some ethnic groups and fractionation of politics (T-Party, lobbying)
      Banking system in relative permanent state of uncertainty
      Low performance on PISA educational attainments – 24th in the world on mathematics (lower position than 2006) and 7th in the world on reading.
      Europe going through a major transition – EU 27 struggling to gain identity in a time of austerity and tension between Germany/France/UK on the one hand and the PIGS economies on the other as well as between the UK and Eurozone
      Former global powers of the G7 nations (US, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy and Canada) are shifting with some in serious economic trouble (US, Japan, Italy) and some seeking to punch globally above their weight (UK, Canada, France) and some unsure about their status (Italy)
    • 25. The Post Washington Consensus(Birdsall and Fukuyama, March 2011 Foreign Affairs Vol. 90(2))
      Post recession:
      The assumption that emerging economies could benefit from the stronger flow of foreign capital (“the foreign finance fetish”) has been questioned by the huge financial externalities imposed by foreign capital (and its volatility) for these economies.
      Regulated financial markets are just as important for the US and Europe as they are for the emerging economies
      Social safety nets make a significant difference to the speed / costs of post recession recovery
      Re-emergence of the importance of industrial policy
      Recognition that the “market” is one force and balancing this with government is essential
      An effective, quality public sector is a critical ingredient in the efficiency of post-capitalist market based economies
      The emergence of multi-polarity: Pole 1: US, Europe and Japan; Pole 2: Brazil, China, India and South Africa with many countries join one orother, depending on the issue.
    • 26. Other Aspects of the World Are Also Changing
      Hans Rolling BBC 200 Countries / 200 years in 4 minutes
      • Shifts in the balance of power in Africa, Asia
      • 27. Middle East and the Summer of Unrest – emerging democracies (fed by Facebook and Twitter)
      • 28. Quickly growing middle class in Asia, India and Africa
      • 29. Health quality rising in formerly unhealthy regions
    • Education Landscape is Changing
    • 30. demographics
      Revolution 4
    • 31. Lets Begin with CanadaAge specific Fertility Rates 1926 - 2005
    • 32. Now Lets Look at The US
    • 33. And Now Europe
    • 34.
    • 35. The Grey Tsunami is Beginning
    • 36. Our Demographic Challenge
      Lowering world-wide of fertility, linked to growing health and wealth
      Many people in the developed world (but also in China and India) living longer
      Rising middle class in East will replace the buying power of the middle class in the west
      Costs of social programs (especially health) rising and debt levels in major economies higher
      Fewer people in work to pay taxes to support a growing number of people not in work
      Austerity likely, with a major impact on employment which in turn, encourages a shift to outsourcing…
    • 37. The Earth and Climate change
      Revolution 5
    • 38. Climate Change is Not NewIt Occurs Around every 1,500 Years
    • 39. Does Appear to be Getting Warmer..
      Though some suggests that data anomalies / Adjustments cause some of this warming. Others claim that the warming effectively stopped in 1998……
    • 40. …and there is more atmospheric CO2
      The current June 2011 CO2 levels are estimated at 390 ppm. The last time CO2was that high was around 3 million years ago, in the early Pliocene. Back then, CO2levels remained at around 365 to 410 ppm for thousands of years. Fear is it will rise to 550 ppm by 2050 (unlikely).
    • 41. World Water Situation Growingly Problematic
    • 42. US Water Sustainability Map(Darker the red, the more problematic)
    • 43. Canada’s Water Situation in 2050
      Per capita, Canadians are the planet's second-biggest water consumers, behind Americans. The average Canadian uses 335 litres per day -- more than double Europeans' usage. And Canadian water use is growing (by 25 per cent over the past two decades), while other developed countries, including the U.S., have seen consumption drop.
      Canada's water gluttony is starker still. Most of the 1.1 billion people worldwide who are water poor must survive on five litres per day. That's less than a Canadian uses to flush a toilet -- even of the low-flush variety.
    • 44. Impacts of Climate Change on Canada’s Water Supply..
      British Columbia
      Warm temperatures cause glacier retreat. (Glaciers supply water for irrigation, drinking and hydroelectric power. Runoff also maintains river habitat.)
      Precipitation is more intense, with greater winter rainfall.
      Lack of water resources lead to water conflicts.
      Prairie provinces
      Declining water resources due to melting glaciers and less snow cover in Rockies.
      More droughts, affecting crop irrigation, soil quality and wetland habitats.
      Changes in water quality due to low flows.
      Ontario
      Lower water levels in Great Lakes lead to increases in shipping costs and problems launching, operating boats.
      Water-borne pathogens carrying infectious diseases proliferate in higher water temperatures.
    • 45. Quebec
      Flooding affects over 80 per cent of municipalities located on the waterfront.
      Extreme precipitation events and flooding overwhelm municipal sewer systems.
      St. Lawrence River fluctuations affect fisheries, wetlands, water supply, hydro power, navigation and marinas.
      Atlantic Provinces
      Rising sea levels cause erosion, flooding of coastal habitats.
      Storm, tidal surges increase, leading to more frequent flooding.
      Droughts affect quantity, quality and allocation of water for agriculture.
    • 46. Four Generalized Response Scenarios(Probability in Brackets Judged by 60 Leading Thinkers / Years = Mean Arrival Dates of the Scenario)
    • 47. A new “self”
      Revolution Six
    • 48. Challenges to Our Sense of Identity
      We are experiencing a generation who confuse “tweeting” with meaning; Facebook friends with friendship, reality TV with reality
      Shifting from homo-sapien to homo-zapien
      Many search for meaning in relation to
      Family, community and society
      Self and personal identity
      Personal relationship
      Relationship to knowledge, information and wisdom
    • 49. The Identity Revolution
      Sustaining the resilience of the human spirit
      Enabling spirituality and mindfulness
      Being happy in work, home, community
      Involvement in community
      Balancing the “egocentric” (a focus on “me/I”) with the allocenetric (a focus on the “us” and others)
      The identity challenge shows itself in:
      Language and thought
      Education
      The construct of “news” – substance versus “froth” and the fascination with “celebrity”
      Decline of religion
      Shifts in social institutions - marriage, family,
    • 50. The “S” CURVES OF HISTORY
      Understanding the Implications
    • 51. The S Curve and History
      The S curve is an established pattern in biology, physics, geology, economics, technology and other spheres
      It describes a dynamic in which an activity reaches a natural limit and then declines…or cannot recover from a major disruption
      For example, semiconductors on a single chip reached a physical limit, so we moved to dual processors..
      Not deterministic – contingent, function of human agency and the maturity of the curve can be sustained by innovation…but
      The decisions of individuals do produce patterns in populations (e.g. demographics) which are S curve like..
    • 52. Overlapping S Curves
      “In Between Time”
    • 53. This is an “In Between” Time
      Transition from a post modern/information age to a biotech/robotic age
      Transition from an age of abundance to one of austerity
      Transition from an age of “me” to an age of “who am I?”
      Transition from the text to the tweet and from newspapers to sound bits and digi-clips
      Transition from a robust, rich US dominated world to a declining/ weak US engaged world with China holding sway
      Transition from a community oriented society to a “self” oriented society
      Transition from established and meaningful global institutions to the G-Zero world
    • 54. Understanding Transitions : Different Social Structures in Different Economic Ages
    • 55. A New 21st Century Renaissance?
      The Medieval Renaissance
      Challenges to generally accepted boundaries of thought and action
      Redefining of who had power/authority
      Realignment of the power of the church and state
      Exploration, innovation and cultural enrichment
      New technology (printing)
      Reinvention of “self”
      New forms of expression – new forms of art, music, drama, poetry
      21st Century Renaissance
      Realigning of social, political and economic boundaries
      Power shifting in terms of social democratic movements and the fractionation of politics
      New forms of religious beliefs and a new secularism
      Innovation, technological disruption with social consequences (e.g. social media, biotech, robotics)
      Reinvention of “self” and “followership”
      New forms of expression – social media, new forms of music and art, drama, film..
    • 56. Let the journey continue!This presentation is available on Slideshare.com
      www.stephenmurgatroyd.com
      stephen.murgatroyd@shaw.ca
      www.renaissanceleaders.org

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