Multidisciplinary Research Week                             (17-22nd March 2013)   ‘Integrated solutions for multiple glob...
Integrated solutions for multiple globalproblems by applying the Sustainomics     transdisciplinary framework             ...
Warm congratulations to theorganisers for putting together     this unique event on    MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH. Complex...
Cross-Disciplinary TerminologyMulti-disciplinaryspecialist teams from different disciplines coordinate effortsto apply var...
WHAT ? are the challenges          Multiple global threats undermine sustainable          development efforts & need integ...
Growing Risks of Global Breakdown   due to Multiple Heavy Shocks• Financial-economic crisis: Asset bubble• Persistent pove...
POVERTY: Poor living on < $1 per dayMIND   Munasinghe Institute for Development
Unfair World Consumption Pattern 2000                                                    Champagne Glass                  ...
Ecological Footprint of Human ConsumptionIn 2012 we need 1.5 earths; by 2035 almost 2 Earths                              ...
Climate Change – IPCC AR4 Main Findings• Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climatenow is unpre...
Uncoordinated responses complicate matters   Example: 2007-2008 food scarcity - 1Human actions• Oil crisis  Corn for etha...
Uncoordinated responses complicate matters   Example: 2007-2008 food scarcity - 2Human actions• Oil crisis  Corn for etha...
WHAT ARE OUR VALUES  AND HOW WELL DO WE ESTABLISH PRIORITIES ? Dealing with the Triple Bubble             CrisisMIND
Three Levels of RealityHead in the clouds?      Financial Markets      Econ. Growth          Productive Economic Assets   ...
Financial Markets           Asset Bubbles      2008 crisis             Productive Economic Assets   Triple crisis bubbles ...
Financial Markets              Econ. Growth           Asset Bubbles      2008 crisis   Poverty-Inequity             Produc...
Financial Markets              Econ. Growth           Asset Bubbles      2008 crisis   Poverty-Inequity             Produc...
Asset bubble >$100 trillion (1012), Global GDP >$60 trillion                           Govt. Bailout >$5 trillion      Aid...
Focus onCLIMATE CHANGE:  Threat MultiplierMIND
MIND   Munasinghe Institute for Development
MAIN DRIVERChanges in CO2 from ice core and modern data   (methane and nitrous oxide also cause global warming)  Now: near...
RESULT: Mean temp, sea level and ice coverMean Temp. (0.75C in 100 yrs.)                           Sea Level (16 cm in 100...
Observed regional changes in climate, and in      physical and biological systemsExamples include:• non-polar glacier retr...
IPCC-AR4: Predicting the Global Climate of 2100        GHG conc. 2-3 times pre-ind. level (280 ppmv)Temp. rise ~3C (1.1 to...
Global Impacts of Climate Change  At 2C, Food & Water impacts are severe. Ecosystemimpacts, extreme events and catastrophi...
Large Scale, Long Term Risks: Tipping Elements                                                Lenton et al, 2008Even 2ºC i...
Global Level Two Way CC-SD Links 1                                                                 Sustainable Development...
Global Level Two Way CC-SD Links 2                                                                                 Sustain...
MOST DESIRABLE:    CC Policies that Harmonise both  Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win)  while also Making Development Mor...
Global Adaptation        Response OptionsMIND   Munasinghe Institute for Development
Global Impacts and VulnerabilityWE CAN PROTECT THE MOST VULNERABLE• People: Poor, Children, Elderly.• Regions: Small Islan...
Ecosystems VulnerabilityLoss of Critical Ecosystem ServicesA temperature increase of 1.5°C - 2.5°Cover present, would put ...
Adaptation Example: People flooded in coastal areas 2080     Constant protection = spending maintained at 1990 levels.    ...
Adaptation Example: People flooded in coastal areas 2080     Constant protection = spending maintained at 1990 levels.    ...
Global Mitigation        Response OptionsMIND   Munasinghe Institute for Development
Global emissions must peak &             decline by 2015-2020 (latest)Copenhagen Accord recognises danger limit of 2°C ris...
Failing the Challenge of MitigationUNFCCC 1992 – good start. Article 2 specifies stabilizationof atmospheric concentration...
Short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions reductionare possible with existing technologies and policies               at an aff...
All sectors and regions can contribute to mitigation      Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as li...
Key Policy Elements• Policies for “carbon price”- can create incentives for producers  and consumers to significantly inve...
Policies are available to governments to realise            mitigation of climate change• Effectiveness of policies depend...
Sustainability & Resource Use: Historical Lessons DURABLE USE OF RESOURCES • Nile Basin (Egypt)   Pharaonic system lasted ...
Recent lesson of late 19th century holocausts -    relevance to Globalization & Climate Change• 18th century – Brazil, Chi...
Barbarization: One Risky Future ScenarioUnrestrained market forces increase risk of conflict (erosion of      ethical & mo...
WHAT ? are the challenges          Multiple global threats undermine sustainable          development efforts & need integ...
Asset crisis: have we learnt from experience? Are we not returning to business as usual?                         Financial...
Global Economic Balance Shifting   Towards Emerging EconomiesThe global balance of economic momentum hasshifted. For the p...
LOST OPPORTUNITY: Economic StimulusPackages were not used to also solve longer  term issues of Poverty, Resources & CC1. S...
Better Use of the Momentum for Change1. Build for long term. Make Development More   Sustainable -- with balanced consider...
Post-2015 Process• Mandates  – Defined at MDG Summit 2010 (High Level Panel)  – Rio+20 Conference 2012 (OWG)• Leadership  ...
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 1Levels               Indicators                            Time     Human Interve...
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 2Levels                 Indicators                             Time     Human Inte...
Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 3Levels                 Indicators                             Time     Human Inte...
HOW DO WE GET THERE ?   Addressing Complex, Multiple,Interlinked Sustainable Development     issues within the Integrated ...
SUSTAINOMICS       Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS)   EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIG...
Making Development More Sustainable through  EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHTThere are many definitions of sustainable deve...
Sustainable Development              Peak – including climate              change (covered by clouds)                     ...
Making Development More Sustainable: Personal Lifestyle Changes      MIND       Munasinghe Institute for Development
MDMS: SCP, Corporate Social Responsibility,Sustainability Accounting & Reporting, Shared Value• SCP provides major opportu...
MDMS: National Level CC-SD Integration  Make decision makers see sustainability and climatechange as key elements of natio...
MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction)    of development and growth - 1                                 Ecosystem     ...
MDMS: Global restructuring (notdownsizing) of development and growth - 2           (rounding the rectangle)      Ecosystem...
SUSTAINOMICS        Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS)   EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESI...
•growth                                             •efficiency                                             •stability    ...
•growth                                             •efficiency                                             •stability    ...
•growth                                             •efficiency                                             •stability    ...
Building Assets for Sustainable Development                                        Manufactured                           ...
Key role played by Social Capital embedded in  Civil Society: ignored, undervalued, invisible• At individual level: is bui...
Social Capital – Civil Society & Values     Examples of Civil Society Response: 2004 Tsunami - Sri    Lanka versus 2005 Hu...
SUSTAINOMICS        Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS)   EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESI...
Innovation can help us TranscendBoundaries for Sustainable Development• Values – replacing unsustainable values• Disciplin...
Innovation helps transcend mental barriers                                                    Status-Quo                  ...
Transcending Unsustainable Values   Build essential ethical and moral values          especially among YOUTHGreed, selfish...
Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 1        Unethical       Social Values                                      ...
Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 2                                    Economic                               ...
Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 3                                      Economic                             ...
Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 4                                      Economic                             ...
Transcending disciplines to address SD issues                   SD Issues                       Disciplines               ...
Transcending Stakeholder Boundaries to Ensure    Cooperation for Sustainable Development                                  ...
Transcending spatial and temporal scales   Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 1 Bigger & Longer Lived                          ...
Transcending spatial and temporal scales   Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 2 Bigger & Longer Lived                          ...
Transcending spatial and temporal scales   Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 3                                           Super...
Transcending Operational Barriers Needs Better Stakeholder Cooperation                              •   Global     Top Dow...
SUSTAINOMICS         Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS)   EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORES...
Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative     tools: from data gathering to practical policy     IMPLEMENTATIO...
Full Cycle - Operations        ACTION                                                        ACTORObservations and Data   ...
Choosing Appropriate SD Indicators              - Social              - Environmental              - Economic             ...
Integrative analytical tools and practical applications    (linking across global, national and local levels)      Integra...
Integrating across the three dimensions of SD               Main Types of Assets for Sustainable Development              ...
Integrating Diverse Definitions of SustainabilityEconomic approach focuses on optimality - maximise growthEnvironmental & ...
Optimality and Durability: Simple ExampleTwo modes complementary - tradeoff depends on situation                          ...
WHAT ? are the challenges            Multiple global threats undermine sustainable            development efforts & need i...
Global Application of Sustainomics:    Climate Change Challenge    Making Development More   Sustainable via “Tunneling”:P...
Climate Justice – Equitable Allocation   of Per Capita Carbon Emissions   MIND
Adaptation Burden & Equity: CC                   SDAdaptation is the first priority of developing countries thatare most v...
Mitigation GHG emissions and population 2004 Per capita Responsibility & Equity: SD   CCMitigation leadership is the main ...
MOST DESIRABLE:    CC Policies that Harmonise both  Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win)  while also Making Development Mor...
MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation tomanage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 1                                ...
MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation tomanage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 2                                ...
MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation tomanage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 3                                ...
Country Level Actions   Integrating Climate Change Policies into National Sustainable       Development StrategyMIND    Mu...
Integrating CC Policies into National SD StrategyMake decision makers see sustainability & climate change as key elements ...
Integration via SD Analysis at the   Macroeconomic/Sectoral Level    (general equilibrium analysis)1. Macroeconomic/Sector...
Expanded Green National Income Accounts for SD                                                               Environmental...
Example Analysing Water and ClimateChange Impacts on Agriculture         in Sri Lanka   Source: M. Munasinghe and S. Perer...
Analysing SD-CC Links using the Action Impact               Matrix (AIM)                          National SD strategy &  ...
Action Impact Matrix (AIM) MethodologyThe AIM methodology may be used to better understand interactionsamong three key ele...
AIM ProcessThe AIM methodology relies on a fully participative stakeholderexercise to generate the AIM itself. Up to 50 ex...
Adaptation Effects on Development (VED-AIM) in Sri Lanka – CC    Impacts and Effects of VA on Development Goals/Policies  ...
Downscaled GCM Results: Range of Climate Change Predictions for Sri Lanka in 2050  Global             Period Rainfall     ...
Multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium Model     linked to sectoral and project level models                         ...
Impact on Sri Lanka national economy in 2050*  - GDP effect small BUT equity effect larger Crop                    Change ...
Sri Lanka CC Impacts: Spatial Distribution MIND     Munasinghe Institute for Development
Some Key Policy Implications1. Moderate overall impact on agricultural output and   national economy, but some effects wil...
Similar Procedure can be usedto Integrate Mitigation into SD    Strategy using the AIMMIND   Munasinghe Institute for Deve...
Subnational-Sectoral    and Local-Project      Level AnalysisMIND   Munasinghe Institute for Development
Sustainable Development Assessment Tools(partial equilibrium analysis at sector/project level )     1. Economic/Financial ...
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and  Multicriteria Analysis (MCA)Economic valuation of environmental(and social) impacts and a...
Inserting Environmental (& Social) ConcernsInto Conventional Economic Decisionmaking 1Environmental                       ...
Inserting Environmental (& Social) ConcernsInto Conventional Economic Decisionmaking 2Environmental                       ...
Land                               Water                                                                Natural           ...
Social concerns may be incorporatedinto conventional decisionmaking usinga similar approach, but with moredifficulty! MIND
Categories of Economic Value of Environmental Assets                       (examples from a tropical rain forest)         ...
Sustainomics Application –           Forest Sector        SD Assessment of a Tropical          Rainforest in Madagascar   ...
Background and ObjectivesMadagascar is economically poor, but ecologically rich (e.g., lemurs). It hasbeen designated a me...
SD GoalsEconomic - maximise net benefitsSocial - balance (competing) interest of stakeholders(especially the poor): Villag...
Valuation Techniques Used in Study• Opportunity Cost Analysis• Travel Cost Analysis• Contingent Valuation AnalysisEvaluate...
Value of Local Household ActivitiesActivity    No. of   Total annual      Mean annual           Observ-    value for all  ...
Economic Costs and Benefits of Establishing  New National Park (using different methods)                                 A...
Madagascar Study - Key ConclusionsPolicy Implications: Can help in investment decisions, resource   mobilization, project ...
Sustainomics application: project levelMulticriteria SD Assessment of small hydro   schemes using economic, social and    ...
Overview of study• Energy affects all three dimensions of sustainable development.• Reviews linkages between potential imp...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Pro...
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'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Professor Mohan Munasinghe. Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 #MDRWeek

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Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 at the University of Southampton. #MDRWeek.
‘Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – Presentation by Professor Mohan Munasinghe, Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Colombo; Professor of Sustainable Development, SCI, University of Manchester. Link: www.mohanmunasinghe.com

See the latest videos, interviews, pictures, tweets and views from the floor at: www.southampton.ac.uk/multidisciplinary

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  • Consensus amongst scientists is strong and the message clearTo avoid dangerous climate change - over 2oC warming - we need to pass ‘peak’ carbon emissions before [2015] and start reducing fast Recent measurements however show atmospheric carbon rising faster and above the top of ranges projected by scientists from IPCC - Shown by the purple line on this chartGlobal population is rising and consumption demand changingPopulation set to rise by over 40% by 2050We must find routes to low-carbon improvements in lifestyles in both developed and developing countriesEmissions are cumulative so the pathway is as vital as the target So ... the sooner we cut our emissions the greater the benefitWe learn by doing and we reduce risk of dangerous ‘tipping points’We must engage everyone – and use all the tools available to us
  • Action to tackle emissions in supply chain is vital but not enough on its own Consumers need to be empowered to change the way they consume – the way they behaveSCI have developed a three part model to describe the contexts for understanding and therefore changing consumer behaviourOur habits are the strongest drivers of how we consumeWhat we do – our habits and behaviours take place in three distinct contextsIndividual, Social and MaterialTo understand how these work together lets take an example of laundryIndividual context covers the products consumers buy and how we use them. What type of powder used with what machine at what temperatureSocial context reflects the influence social aspirations and lifestyle have on what we wash, how often and howMaterial contexts reflects the available technologies. The material clothes are made from, availability of washing machines and powdersThe key point here is that in effecting change in behaviour successful, sustainable change is achieved only by considering and acting on all three contexts. Not just an isolated marketing campaign or price promotion
  • 'Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’ – by Professor Mohan Munasinghe. Multidisciplinary Research Week 2013 #MDRWeek

    1. 1. Multidisciplinary Research Week (17-22nd March 2013) ‘Integrated solutions for multiple global problems through applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework’, by Professor Mohan Munasinghe, Chairman, Munasinghe Institute forDevelopment (MIND), Colombo; Professor of Sustainable Development, University of Manchester.
    2. 2. Integrated solutions for multiple globalproblems by applying the Sustainomics transdisciplinary framework Professor Mohan Munasinghe www.mohanmunasinghe.com Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), Colombo Professor of Sustainable Development, SCI, Univ. of Manchester Distinguished Guest Professor, Peking University, ChinaVisiting Professor, Vale Sustainable Dev. Inst., Fed. Univ. of Para, Belem, Brazil Shared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace (Vice Chair, IPCC-AR4) Keynote Speech delivered at Multidisciplinary Research Week University of Southampton, 18 March 2013 MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development Sustainable Consumption Institute University of Manchester SCI
    3. 3. Warm congratulations to theorganisers for putting together this unique event on MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH. Complex global problems of sustainabledevelopment need integrated,transdisciplinary approaches. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    4. 4. Cross-Disciplinary TerminologyMulti-disciplinaryspecialist teams from different disciplines coordinate effortsto apply various concepts and methods to complex problemsInter-disciplinarymulti-disciplinary team seeks to break down the barriersamong various disciplines and achieve a synthesis, usuallyat the results stage.Trans-disciplinary(approach promoted in Sustainomics)Inter-disciplinary team seeks to combine knowledge fromvarious disciplines to synthesize new concepts and methods- before applying them to a complex problem. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    5. 5. WHAT ? are the challenges Multiple global threats undermine sustainable development efforts & need integrated solutions MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    6. 6. Growing Risks of Global Breakdown due to Multiple Heavy Shocks• Financial-economic crisis: Asset bubble• Persistent poverty and growing inequity• Resource shortages: water, food, energy• Environmental harm, extreme events, conflict mass migrations, pandemics• Climate change: the ultimate threat amplifierMultiple threats are inter-related and synergistic.Integrated & comprehensive solutions needed.Stakeholder interests divergent. Responses areuncoordinated & piecemeal – lack of political will MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    7. 7. POVERTY: Poor living on < $1 per dayMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    8. 8. Unfair World Consumption Pattern 2000 Champagne Glass 83% The richest fifth of the World’s Population receives 83% of the Worlds Income Ratio is 60:1 One fifth of the Worlds Population between highest and lowest 20% ! The poorest fifth of the Worlds Population receives 1.4% of total World Income MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    9. 9. Ecological Footprint of Human ConsumptionIn 2012 we need 1.5 earths; by 2035 almost 2 Earths BAU Unsustainable Number of Earths Sustainable one earth 2012 2030Existing nuclear weapons can wipe out life on entire planet ! MIND
    10. 10. Climate Change – IPCC AR4 Main Findings• Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climatenow is unprecedented in several thousand years, due to risingconcentrations of GHG (CO2, CH4 & NO2).• Humans activities since the 18th century are very likely to have caused netwarming of Earth’s climate, dominating over the last 50 years. More temp.and sea level rise is inevitable, even with existing GHG concentrations.• Long term unmitigated climate change would likely exceed the capacityto adapt, of natural managed and human systems.•Adaptation measures are available, but must be systematically developed• Mitigation technologies are also available, but better policies andmeasures (PAM) are needed to realize their potential.• Poor countries & poor groups are most vulnerable to warming, sealevel rise, precipitation changes and extreme events. Most socio-economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will suffer.• Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is the mosteffective solution - by integrating climate change policy intosustainable development strategy. MIND
    11. 11. Uncoordinated responses complicate matters Example: 2007-2008 food scarcity - 1Human actions• Oil crisis  Corn for ethanol MIND
    12. 12. Uncoordinated responses complicate matters Example: 2007-2008 food scarcity - 2Human actions• Oil crisis  Corn for ethanol RESULT Food• Drought  Grain shortage ScarcityNature MIND
    13. 13. WHAT ARE OUR VALUES AND HOW WELL DO WE ESTABLISH PRIORITIES ? Dealing with the Triple Bubble CrisisMIND
    14. 14. Three Levels of RealityHead in the clouds? Financial Markets Econ. Growth Productive Economic Assets Bio-geo-physical ResourcesFeet firmly on the ground?Sound financial markets and economic growthshould be based on the true value of theproductive economic asset base. In turn the valueand use of economic assets should closely reflectthe state of natural (bio-geo-physical) resources MIND
    15. 15. Financial Markets Asset Bubbles 2008 crisis Productive Economic Assets Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed – enjoy now & pay later 2A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards MIND
    16. 16. Financial Markets Econ. Growth Asset Bubbles 2008 crisis Poverty-Inequity Productive Economic Assets Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed – enjoy now & pay later 2A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards MIND
    17. 17. Financial Markets Econ. Growth Asset Bubbles 2008 crisis Poverty-Inequity Productive Economic Assets Climate change Externalities Bio-geo-physical Resources Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed – enjoy now & pay later 3A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards MIND
    18. 18. Asset bubble >$100 trillion (1012), Global GDP >$60 trillion Govt. Bailout >$5 trillion Aid/yr ~$100 billion Human Values/Choices Financial Markets Econ. Growth Asset Bubbles 2008 crisis Poverty-Inequity Productive Economic Assets Climate change Externalities Few billion $ Bio-geo-physical Resources Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed – enjoy now & pay later 4A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards World Military Expenditures: almost $2 trillion in 2012 MIND
    19. 19. Focus onCLIMATE CHANGE: Threat MultiplierMIND
    20. 20. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    21. 21. MAIN DRIVERChanges in CO2 from ice core and modern data (methane and nitrous oxide also cause global warming) Now: near 400 Pre-ind: 275 -10,000 -5,000 TODAY (years) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    22. 22. RESULT: Mean temp, sea level and ice coverMean Temp. (0.75C in 100 yrs.) Sea Level (16 cm in 100yrs.) 25 yr. 50 yr. 150 yr. 100 yr. Arctic Sea Ice Extent (min.) Glacier Mass Balance MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    23. 23. Observed regional changes in climate, and in physical and biological systemsExamples include:• non-polar glacier retreat• reduction in Arctic sea ice extent and thickness in summer• earlier flowering and longer growing and breeding season for plants and animals in N. Hemisphere• poleward and upward (altitudinal) migration of plants, birds, fish and insects; earlier spring migration and later departure of birds in N. Hem.• increased incidence of coral bleaching MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    24. 24. IPCC-AR4: Predicting the Global Climate of 2100 GHG conc. 2-3 times pre-ind. level (280 ppmv)Temp. rise ~3C (1.1 to 6.4) Sea level rise ~40cm (20 to 60) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    25. 25. Global Impacts of Climate Change At 2C, Food & Water impacts are severe. Ecosystemimpacts, extreme events and catastrophic changes worsen Source: IPCC AR-4 MIND
    26. 26. Large Scale, Long Term Risks: Tipping Elements Lenton et al, 2008Even 2ºC imposes risks of catastrophic, irreversible impacts MIND
    27. 27. Global Level Two Way CC-SD Links 1 Sustainable DevelopmentClimate Domain Domain Climate Change Stresses Climate (temp., sea level, precip. etc.) Human and System Natural Systems Feedbacks (V&A Areas) Drivers Different Atmospheric Feedbacks Socio-economic GHG Emission Development and Concentration Paths Scenarios Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions (SD Goals & Policies)MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    28. 28. Global Level Two Way CC-SD Links 2 Sustainable DevelopmentClimate Domain Domain Climate Change Stresses Adaptation (temp., sea level, precip. etc.) Human and Climate System Natural Systems Adaptive Capacity Feedbacks (V&A Areas) Feedbacks Feedbacks Econ. Soc. Envir. Feedbacks Different Atmospheric Feedbacks Mitigative Socio-economic Capacity GHG Emission Development and Concentration Paths Scenarios Human Actions Causing GHG Emissions (SD Goals & Policies)MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    29. 29. MOST DESIRABLE: CC Policies that Harmonise both Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win) while also Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)Examples: growing forests, energy savingMany trade-offs also arise and need to bereconciled MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    30. 30. Global Adaptation Response OptionsMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    31. 31. Global Impacts and VulnerabilityWE CAN PROTECT THE MOST VULNERABLE• People: Poor, Children, Elderly.• Regions: Small Islands, Arctic, Asian megadeltas, Sub-saharan Africa.• Sectors & Ecosystems: Coral reefs, sea-ice regions, tundra, boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions, low-lying coasts, mangroves & salt marshes; Water resources in mid-latitudes & dry tropics; Low-latitude agriculture; Human health where adaptive capacity is low. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    32. 32. Ecosystems VulnerabilityLoss of Critical Ecosystem ServicesA temperature increase of 1.5°C - 2.5°Cover present, would put 20% - 30% ofhigher plants and animals at high risk ofextinctionMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    33. 33. Adaptation Example: People flooded in coastal areas 2080 Constant protection = spending maintained at 1990 levels. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    34. 34. Adaptation Example: People flooded in coastal areas 2080 Constant protection = spending maintained at 1990 levels. Evolving protection = spending increases at same rate as GDP. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    35. 35. Global Mitigation Response OptionsMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    36. 36. Global emissions must peak & decline by 2015-2020 (latest)Copenhagen Accord recognises danger limit of 2°C riseand stabilisation level of ~450 ppmv by 2100 (currently 392ppmv, safe level 280 ppmv). CO2- GDP Reduction Global average CO2 Year CO2 Global Mean Equivalent reducti in 2050 sea level rise stabili- needs to temp. incr. at Stabili- on in relative to from thermal zation peak equilib. zation level 2030 2000 expansion ppm ppm Year % Percent °C metres 350 – 400 445 – 490 2000–2015 <3 -85 to -50 2.0 – 2.4 0.4 – 1.4 400 – 440 490 – 535 2000–2020 <2 -60 to -30 2.4 – 2.8 0.5 – 1.7 440 – 485 535 – 590 2010 – 2030 0.6 -30 to +5 2.8 – 3.2 0.6 – 1.9 485 – 570 590 – 710 2020 – 2060 0.2 +10 to +60 3.2 – 4.0 0.6 – 2.4 570 – 660 710 – 855 2050 – 2080 +25 to +85 4.0 – 4.9 0.8 – 2.9 660 – 790 855 – 1130 2060 – 2090 +90 to +140 4.9 – 6.1 1.0 – 3.7 MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    37. 37. Failing the Challenge of MitigationUNFCCC 1992 – good start. Article 2 specifies stabilizationof atmospheric concentrations of GHG concentrations at alevel that does not harm the climate system (food security,ecological systems and sustainable economic development).Kyoto Protocol 1997 – modest target. By 2012 Annex Inations to reduce emissions 5% relative to 1990. Complianceweak. Came into force without USA (largest emitter).Even after Kyoto 1997, emissions continue to increasePost-Kyoto Agreement 2013? Bali (COP13) & Poznan(COP14) made a start, but Parties repeatedly postponed theissues until 2015-20 , at Copenhagen (COP15), Cancun(COP16), Durban (COP17) and Qatar (COP18-Dec.2012) !World is now facing 3-4 °C temp. rise by 2100. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    38. 38. Short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions reductionare possible with existing technologies and policies at an affordable cost• Energy: significant technical progress has been made in the last 10 years and at a faster rate than expected (wind power, solar, elimination of industrial by-products, hybrid engine cars, fuel cell technology, carbon capture and storage, etc.)• Land Use: good potential for carbon sinks and reduced GHG emissions from both better management of existing land cover, and transformation of land use MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    39. 39. All sectors and regions can contribute to mitigation Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    40. 40. Key Policy Elements• Policies for “carbon price”- can create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes. Higher carbon prices could impose significant burdens on the poor, unless targetted relief policies are implemented to ensure basic energy needs are met.• Technology Policies - Deployment of low-GHG emission technologies and RD&D would be required for achieving stabilization targets and cost reduction• International Agreements - achieving the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol targets may stimulate a global response to the climate problem, an array of national policies, the creation of an international carbon market and new institutional mechanisms. Future agreements will help reduce global costs of mitigation( eg: emission trading, Joint Implementation and CDM) and improve environmental effectiveness MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    41. 41. Policies are available to governments to realise mitigation of climate change• Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation – Integrating climate policies in broader development policies – Regulations and standards – Taxes and charges – Tradable permits – Financial incentives – Voluntary agreements – Information instruments – Research and development MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    42. 42. Sustainability & Resource Use: Historical Lessons DURABLE USE OF RESOURCES • Nile Basin (Egypt) Pharaonic system lasted over 4000 years, with sustainable resource use and reasonable quality of life • Yellow River Basin (China) Imperial system was stable for many millenia, and supported flourishing society • Saraswati River (India) Hosted a flourishing civilisation for 4000 years. River eventually dried up due to tectonic activity, climate change and desertification, and water piracy. OVEREXPLOITATION OF RESOURCES • Sahara Desert Once green with many animals and hunters. Over-exploitation led to a drier habitat which could no longer sustain these populations MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    43. 43. Recent lesson of late 19th century holocausts - relevance to Globalization & Climate Change• 18th century – Brazil, China and India had quality of life comparable with Europe.• 19 century – Colonial rule trapped developing country small farmers were into exporting cash crops at ever decreasing terms of trade. Growing trade led to falling grain output and rising food insecurity.• Late 19th century – Two El Nino draughts 1876-78 & 1898-1901 killed tens of millions due to food vulnerability and famine. The developing world is still unable to catch up after this setback.• Future globalization and climate change could interact like colonial trade expansion and El Nino, BUT on a worldwide scale – Potential for future starvation and death on global scale due to vulnerability of the poor, unless a new vision based on SD emerges. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    44. 44. Barbarization: One Risky Future ScenarioUnrestrained market forces increase risk of conflict (erosion of ethical & moral values underpinning civilization) Poverty, Inequity, Pandemics Environmental degradation Resource Shortage, Conflict Social polarization, Terrorism Climate ChangeChaos, Break-down Fortress WorldConflict, rivalry and Local, regional & global groupscompetition for protect their interests within enclavesresources overwhelm all How will we cope with such a world,efforts to impose order especially the poor? MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    45. 45. WHAT ? are the challenges Multiple global threats undermine sustainable development efforts & need integrated solutions HOW ? can we move forward to transform risky current trends into a safer and better future Apply the SUSTAINOMICS framework to start making development more sustainable (MDMS) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    46. 46. Asset crisis: have we learnt from experience? Are we not returning to business as usual? Financial Sector Jobless Poor ~100 million MIND
    47. 47. Global Economic Balance Shifting Towards Emerging EconomiesThe global balance of economic momentum hasshifted. For the past decade, emerging anddeveloping economies have grown over 5% fasterthan advanced economies.US, Europe and Japan are still struggling to comeout of the financial crisis, and facing major issuesincluding low growth and high debts.The SOUTH led by the BRICS emerging economies(Brazil, Russia, India, China & S. Africa) areforging ahead after only a minor initial downturnin growth – both GNP and HDI have improved. MIND
    48. 48. LOST OPPORTUNITY: Economic StimulusPackages were not used to also solve longer term issues of Poverty, Resources & CC1. Support productive long term investments (e.g., infrastructure, renewable energy, forestry, agriculture) and social development (e.g., health, education, sustainable livelihoods, safety nets), NOT subsidies for rich banks, companies & consumption expenses.2. Boost poverty reduction and job creation efforts (e.g., more access to assets for the poor, promote exports of IT and manufactures).3. Better governance, manage markets, reform prices Fraction of stimulus funds spent on green investments: Korea – 80%; China – 35%; Others mainly 10-15% or less MIND
    49. 49. Better Use of the Momentum for Change1. Build for long term. Make Development More Sustainable -- with balanced consideration of sustainable development triangle (economic, social and environmental elements). Transcend conventional boundaries using innovative, holistic, integrative approaches.2. Transform global governance structure. Reform market regulation. Make UN system more effective & responsive. Make IMF/World Bank more inclusive. Give more weight to G20 (with advice from B20, C20, etc.) MIND
    50. 50. Post-2015 Process• Mandates – Defined at MDG Summit 2010 (High Level Panel) – Rio+20 Conference 2012 (OWG)• Leadership – Member States: prerogative to deliver framework – UN Secretary-General: to present vision to General Assembly in September 2013 building upon UN system’s work and consultation processes MIND
    51. 51. Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 1Levels Indicators Time Human Interventions Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion, Now High risk from unrestrained,Main myopic market forces (“WashingtonIssues Resource Conflicts, Harm to consensus”, globalisation etc.) –(surface) Environment (including CC) Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt. Business-as-usual poses unacceptable risks for the future MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development Source: Munasinghe
    52. 52. Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 2Levels Indicators Time Human Interventions Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion, Now High risk from unrestrained,Main myopic market forces (“WashingtonIssues Resource Conflicts, Harm to consensus”, globalisation etc.) –(surface) Environment (including CC) Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt. Making development more Consumption Patterns sustainable (MDMS) withImmediate Transition systematic policy reform to manage Production/TechnologyDrivers market forces (Sustainomics) – Population Proactive: integrated, harmonious(sub-surface) Governance approach - govt., business, civil soc.The SD transition requires multiple threatsto be addressed with CC and other policiesintegrated within SD strategy MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development Source: Munasinghe
    53. 53. Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 3Levels Indicators Time Human Interventions Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion, Now High risk from unrestrained,Main myopic market forces (“WashingtonIssues Resource Conflicts, Harm to consensus”, globalisation etc.) –(surface) Environment (including CC) Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt. Making development more Consumption Patterns sustainable (MDMS) withImmediate Transition systematic policy reform to manage Production/TechnologyDrivers market forces (Sustainomics) – Population Proactive: integrated, harmonious(sub-surface) Governance approach - govt., business, civil soc. Fundamental global sustainable Basic Needs dev. transition catalysed by grass Long Term roots citizens movements, & drivenUnderlying Social Power Structure by social justice, ethics and equity,Pressures innovative leadership, policies, info. Values, Perceptions, Choices(deep) flows, tech. (new SD paradigm) – Knowledge Base Proactive: civil soc., business, govt. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development Source: Munasinghe
    54. 54. HOW DO WE GET THERE ? Addressing Complex, Multiple,Interlinked Sustainable Development issues within the Integrated SUSTAINOMICS Framework MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    55. 55. SUSTAINOMICS Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHT MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    56. 56. Making Development More Sustainable through EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHTThere are many definitions of sustainable development starting withBruntland (1987), and its precise meaning still remains elusive.Parallel track strategy:1. Short to medium term – make development more sustainable(apply best practice).2. Long term - aim for ideal goal of sustainable development(identify next practice).Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is a less ambitiousincremental strategy that is more practical to implement becausemany unsustainable activities are easier to recognize and eliminate.PRACTICAL TEST FOR PUBLIC POLICIES:Does the policy make development more (or less) sustainable? MIND
    57. 57. Sustainable Development Peak – including climate change (covered by clouds) We cannot see the peak!! Let’s stop to discuss & Lets move forward NOW!! If analyze how to reach it. we climb uphill, we will reach the peak eventuallyEMPOWERED to Make Development More ANALYSING SD and CC –Sustainable (MDMS) – BEST PRACTICE NEXT PRACTICEMany obviously unsustainable practices exist today.MDMS encourages us to eliminate them NOW! Examplesinclude energy wastage and deforestation. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    58. 58. Making Development More Sustainable: Personal Lifestyle Changes MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    59. 59. MDMS: SCP, Corporate Social Responsibility,Sustainability Accounting & Reporting, Shared Value• SCP provides major opportunities to improve resource efficiency.• Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a concept wherebyorganizations consider the wider interests of society by takingresponsibility for the impact of their activities on customers,suppliers, employees, shareholders, communities and theenvironment in all aspects of their operations.• Sustainability Accounting & Reporting includes the generation,analysis, use and reporting of economic, environmental and socialinformation (monetised wherever possible) to improve corporatemanagement and performance in those areas. This approachrecognizes that the social and environmental consequences ofcorporate actions are as important as monetary profits, and seeks tomeasure and report on those outcomes, via the Triple Bottom Line.• Shared Value seeks to make profits while benefiting society &environment by finding shared sources of value common to theenterprise and to society. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    60. 60. MDMS: National Level CC-SD Integration Make decision makers see sustainability and climatechange as key elements of national development strategy (Social, Economic, Environmental) Impacts Sustainable Dev. Adaptation Development Mitigation (natural variability) Environment - Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry, Transport, Health, etc.) CC - Systems (Environmental, ecological, etc.) - Communities (Poor, Vulnerable, etc.) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    61. 61. MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction) of development and growth - 1 Ecosystem Socioeconomic Subsystem Ecological Services The capacity of the ecosystem may become overloaded by the growing socio-economic subsystem (broken lines). MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    62. 62. MDMS: Global restructuring (notdownsizing) of development and growth - 2 (rounding the rectangle) Ecosystem Ecosystem Socioeconomic Socioeconomic Subsystem Subsystem Unsustainable Sustainable MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    63. 63. SUSTAINOMICS Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHT2. Harmonising the sustainable development triangle BALANCE, INTEGRATION MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    64. 64. •growth •efficiency •stability Economic Social Environmental • empowerment/governance • resilience/biodiversity • inclusion/consultation • natural resources • institutions/values • pollutionSustainable Development Triangle – harmonising key elements andinterconnections (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    65. 65. •growth •efficiency •stability Economic Poverty Equity Sustainability Climate Change • inter-generational equity Social • values/culture Environmental • empowerment/governance • resilience/biodiversity • inclusion/consultation • natural resources • institutions/values • pollutionSustainable Development Triangle – harmonising key elements andinterconnections (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    66. 66. •growth •efficiency •stability Economic G R E E N E Poverty C Equity O N Sustainability O Climate Change M • inter-generational equity Y Social • values/culture Environmental • empowerment/governance • resilience/biodiversity • inclusion/consultation • natural resources • institutions/values • pollutionSustainable Development Triangle – harmonising key elements andinterconnections (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    67. 67. Building Assets for Sustainable Development Manufactured Capital Southampton Social Capital Univ. Social Natural • Human Capital Capital • CulturalSource: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth SummitMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    68. 68. Key role played by Social Capital embedded in Civil Society: ignored, undervalued, invisible• At individual level: is built on personal networks that help us enormously in our private and professional lives.• At community and national levels: is the invisible glue that binds society together – involving values- ethics, culture, behaviour, and social linkages. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    69. 69. Social Capital – Civil Society & Values Examples of Civil Society Response: 2004 Tsunami - Sri Lanka versus 2005 Hurricane Katrina - New Orleans, USA Event Deaths GNP/capita ~35,000 2004 Tsunami ~ USD 1,000 (1 in every 570 – Sri Lanka people) 2005 ~1850 ~ USD 35,000 Hurricane (1 in every Katrina - USA 200,000 people)Recent examples: China earthquake, Japan Fukushima Nuclear Disaster MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    70. 70. SUSTAINOMICS Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHT2. Harmonising the sustainable development triangle BALANCE, INTEGRATION3. Transcending boundaries INNOVATION MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    71. 71. Innovation can help us TranscendBoundaries for Sustainable Development• Values – replacing unsustainable values• Disciplinary – complex issues need all disciplines• Space – spans local to global scales• Time – spans days to centuries• Stakeholder – need to include all stakeholders• Operational – full cycle from data to application MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    72. 72. Innovation helps transcend mental barriers Status-Quo Vested Interests Never, ever think outside the box! Innovators Source: New Yorker MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    73. 73. Transcending Unsustainable Values Build essential ethical and moral values especially among YOUTHGreed, selfishness and violence are unsustainableSelflessness, altruism, enlightened self-interest,and respect for other humans and nature will makedevelopment more sustainable Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change 2006Interfaith Declaration on Climate Change 2009 MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development Sustainable Consumption Institute University of Manchester SCI
    74. 74. Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 1 Unethical Social Values Environmental Greed, Selfishness, Debt Social Unsustainable Corrupti on, Inequity, Violence, Injustice, Capital cons. & prod. Elitism depleting NR Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    75. 75. Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 2 Economic Mal-development growth based on unsustainable debt, waste & inequitable consumption by the elites Unethical Social Values Environmental Greed, Selfishness, Debt Social Unsustainable Corruption, Inequity, Violence, Injustice, cons. Capital & prod. Elitism depleting NR Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    76. 76. Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 3 Economic Mal-development growth based on unsustainable debt, waste & inequitable consumption by the elites Drivers of Unsustainable Unethical Environmental Social Values Development Environmental Debt Greed, Selfishness, Debt Unsustainable Corrupti on, Inequity, Social Unsustainable Pollution & Violence, Injustice, Capital cons. & prod. Depleting Natural Elitism depleting NR Resources Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    77. 77. Wrong Values Drive Unsustainable Development: 4 Economic Mal-development growth based on unsustainable debt, waste & inequitable consumption by the elites Drivers of Unsustainable Unethical Environmental Social Values Development Environmental Debt Greed, Selfishness, (with feedback) Debt Unsustainable Social Unsustainable Corrupti on, Inequity, Pollution & Violence, Injustice, Capital cons. & prod. Depleting Natural Elitism depleting NR Resources Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    78. 78. Transcending disciplines to address SD issues SD Issues Disciplines Philosophy • social justice, equity, values and culture Sociology Anthropology • institutions and governance Law Politics • markets and prices Economics Finance Management • technologies and management Engineering Ecology • biological and physical resource base Natural SciencesSource: Munasinghe (2002), Int. J. of Sust. Dev. MIND
    79. 79. Transcending Stakeholder Boundaries to Ensure Cooperation for Sustainable Development Business Southampton Civil Univ. Social Govern- Society Capital mentGCI can catalyse interactions among government, civil society and business to strengthen local, national and global governance Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    80. 80. Transcending spatial and temporal scales Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 1 Bigger & Longer Lived Human (sustainable) System being Source: Gunderson and Holling (2002) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    81. 81. Transcending spatial and temporal scales Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 2 Bigger & Longer Lived Human (sustainable) System being Innovation and Adaptation from below (Faster Changes) Sub-Systems Cells Source: Gunderson and Holling (2002) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    82. 82. Transcending spatial and temporal scales Panarchy of Systems Concepts: 3 Super-System Society Bigger & Longer Lived (Slower Changes) Conservation and Continuity from above Human (sustainable) System being Innovation and Adaptation from below (Faster Changes) Sub-Systems Cells Source: Gunderson and Holling (2002) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    83. 83. Transcending Operational Barriers Needs Better Stakeholder Cooperation • Global Top Down Strategy -Policy Subsidiarity • Regional Integration • National • Local • Community Specific Projects Bottom up • IndividualPragmatic balance between subsidiarity andintegration is essential: eg., CC or river-basin MIND
    84. 84. SUSTAINOMICS Core concepts and elements1. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHT2. Harmonising the sustainable development triangle BALANCE, INTEGRATION3. Transcending boundaries INNOVATION4. Full cycle application of integrative tools – from data gathering to practical policy implementation IMPLEMENTATION MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    85. 85. Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative tools: from data gathering to practical policy IMPLEMENTATION There are many practical analytical tools and policy options to integrate CC responses into SD strategy (from global to local levels) There are many available case studies and best practice examples involving sustainomics applications MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    86. 86. Full Cycle - Operations ACTION ACTORObservations and Data Observers Seamless CycleConcepts and Ideas Thinkers & PhilosophersModels & Analyses Scientists & AnalystsInterpretation of Results Translators & CommunicatorsPlans & Policies Decision MakersPractical Applications Implementing AgentsImpacts (SD triangle) Assessment Experts Each stage of activity has a tendency to become compartmentalised MIND Source: Munasinghe (200 Munasinghe Institute for Development
    87. 87. Choosing Appropriate SD Indicators - Social - Environmental - Economic - Institutionalmany indicators are available; thus correct choice is critical for specific task at hand MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    88. 88. Integrative analytical tools and practical applications (linking across global, national and local levels) Integrative Analytical Tools Application1. Restructuring Growth to Make Levels Development More Sustainable (MDMS) A. Global-2. Optimisation and Durability Linkages Across Levels transnational3. SD Analysis (Macro Level)4. Action Impact Matrix (AIM) B. National-5. Green Accounting (SEEA-SNA) macroeconomic6. Integrated Models (IAM, CGE, etc.) C. Subnational-7. SD Analysis (Micro Level) sectoral8. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), Cost-Benefit D. Local- Analysis (CBA) and Economic Valuation project9. SD Indicators M I I ND MN D Munasinghe Institute for Development Munasinghe Institute for Development
    89. 89. Integrating across the three dimensions of SD Main Types of Assets for Sustainable Development Manufactured Capital Sustainable Development Social Capital Social Natural • Human Capital Capital • CulturalEconomic approach focuses on optimality - maximise growthEnvironmental & social approaches use durability – overall system health MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    90. 90. Integrating Diverse Definitions of SustainabilityEconomic approach focuses on optimality - maximise growthEnvironmental & social approaches use durability – overall system healthEconomic: Maximum flow of income that could be sustained indefinitely,without reducing stocks of productive assets. Economic efficiency ensures bothefficient resource allocation in production and efficient consumption thatmaximises utility.Ecological: Preserving the viability and normal functioning of naturalsystems, including system health ability to adapt to shocks across a range of spatialand temporal scales. Defined by a comprehensive, multiscale, hierarchical,dynamic measure describing system resilience, vigour and organization.Social: Maintaining the resilience of social systems and limiting theirvulnerability to sudden shocks. Involves building social capital to strengthencohesion, protecting cultural diversity and values, and improving inclusion andparticipation - especially of disadvantaged groups. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    91. 91. Optimality and Durability: Simple ExampleTwo modes complementary - tradeoff depends on situation Yield Risk Optimal Mode Max. yield Olympic 100m sprinter – willing to Highest risk take high risk and make extreme effort Examples: Iskill to minimise running time (single (Voldemart) 2B+ indicator) for one special event loss at JP Morgan. Leeson - Bearings Durable Mode Middle aged walker – undertakes regular, low risk exercise for overall Mod. yield health (multiple indicators), over many Lower risk decades MIND
    92. 92. WHAT ? are the challenges Multiple global threats undermine sustainable development efforts & need integrated solutions HOW ? can we move forward to transform risky current trends into a safer and better future Apply the SUSTAINOMICS framework to start making development more sustainable (MDMS)WHICH? practical analytical tools and policies are available Many best practice examples and case studies of integrated solutions exist, worldwide. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    93. 93. Global Application of Sustainomics: Climate Change Challenge Making Development More Sustainable via “Tunneling”:Potential Post-Kyoto Framework for Jointly Managing Climate Risk & Right to Develop MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    94. 94. Climate Justice – Equitable Allocation of Per Capita Carbon Emissions MIND
    95. 95. Adaptation Burden & Equity: CC SDAdaptation is the first priority of developing countries thatare most vulnerable to climate change. Help is also crucial.• Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within all countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.• Net economic effects will be negative in most developing countries• Impacts will be worse - many areas are already flood and drought prone, and economic sectors are climate sensitive• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity, and access to knowledge MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    96. 96. Mitigation GHG emissions and population 2004 Per capita Responsibility & Equity: SD CCMitigation leadership is the main responsibility of industrial countries with high per capita GHG emissions Annex 1 avg. Non-Annex I avg. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    97. 97. MOST DESIRABLE: CC Policies that Harmonise both Adaptation and Mitigation (Win-Win) while also Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)Examples: growing forests, energy savingMany trade-offs also arise and need to bereconciled MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    98. 98. MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation tomanage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 1 Rich Today (e.g. per capita GHG emissions) Climate Risk Middle Income Poor Development Level (e.g. per capita income) Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable," Ecological Economics, 15:121-4. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    99. 99. MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation tomanage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 2 Rich Transform - Decarbonise (e.g. per capita GHG emissions) Climate Risk Middle Income Incentives/resources for developing countries 1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and Poor most vulnerable. Development Level (e.g. per capita income) Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable," Ecological Economics, 15:121-4. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    100. 100. MDMS via “Tunneling”: global cooperation tomanage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 3 Rich Transform - Decarbonise (e.g. per capita GHG emissions) Climate Risk Leapfrog (CHINA,) Middle Income Incentives/resources for developing countries 1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and Poor most vulnerable. 2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog Development Level (e.g. per capita income) Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable," Ecological Economics, 15:121-4. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    101. 101. Country Level Actions Integrating Climate Change Policies into National Sustainable Development StrategyMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    102. 102. Integrating CC Policies into National SD StrategyMake decision makers see sustainability & climate change as key elements of the national development strategy (Social, Economic, Environmental) Impacts Sustainable Dev. Adaptation Development Mitigation (natural variability) Environment - Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry, Transport, Education, Health, etc.) CC - Systems (Environmental, ecological, etc.) - Communities (Poor, Vulnerable, etc.) MIND
    103. 103. Integration via SD Analysis at the Macroeconomic/Sectoral Level (general equilibrium analysis)1. Macroeconomic/Sectoral Modeling2. Environmental and Macroeconomic Analysis3. Poverty/Income Distributional Analysis MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    104. 104. Expanded Green National Income Accounts for SD Environmental- Economic Links Economic Links Basic Satellite Input-Output Environmental Accounts Table Economic-Social Links Envir.-Social Links Distribution of Distribution of Income Environmental Impacts Source: Munasinghe (2001), Macroeconomics and Environment MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    105. 105. Example Analysing Water and ClimateChange Impacts on Agriculture in Sri Lanka Source: M. Munasinghe and S. Perera (2006) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    106. 106. Analysing SD-CC Links using the Action Impact Matrix (AIM) National SD strategy & plans (NSSD, PRSP, NEAP etc.) Identify Links, Screen, Prioritize Issues, Select Remedies Action Impact Matrix (AIM) applied to SED { interacti ons of national SD strateg y with energy & CC policies Macro- and Sectoral Models and Analyses Implement Energy & CC Policies & Proj. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    107. 107. Action Impact Matrix (AIM) MethodologyThe AIM methodology may be used to better understand interactionsamong three key elements, at the country-specific level:(a) national development policies and goals;(b) key SD issues and indicators; and(c) climate change adaptation (and mitigation).First, the two-way linkages between elements (a) and (b) are explored, inthe context of natural climate variability. Then, we impose the additionalimpacts of element (c) on the interactions between elements (a) and (b).The AIM approach analyses key economic-environmental-socialinteractions to identify potential barriers to making development moresustainable (MDMS) - including climate change. It also helps to determinethe priority macro policies and strategies in economic, environmental andsocial spheres, that facilitate implementation of climate change adaptationand mitigation to overcome the effects of climate change.Thus, the AIM helps to integrate CC within SD. It has been used since theearly 1990s to link macroeconomic policies and environment. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    108. 108. AIM ProcessThe AIM methodology relies on a fully participative stakeholderexercise to generate the AIM itself. Up to 50 experts are drawn fromgovernment, academia, civil society and the private sector, whorepresent various disciplines and sectors relevant to both sustainabledevelopment and climate change. In the initial exercise, they usuallyinteract intensively over a period of about two days, to build apreliminary AIM. This participative process is as important as theproduct (i.e., the AIM), since important synergies and cooperativeteam-building activities emerge. The collaboration helps participantsto better understand opposing viewpoints, resolves conflicts, andultimately facilitates implementation of agreed policy remedies. Onsubsequent occasions, the updating or fine-tuning of the initial AIMcan be done within a few hours by the same group, since they arealready conversant with the methodology. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    109. 109. Adaptation Effects on Development (VED-AIM) in Sri Lanka – CC Impacts and Effects of VA on Development Goals/Policies Key Vulnerabilities, Impacts and Adaptation (VIA) Notation (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) + Beneficial - Harmful Wet- 3 High Bio- lands 2 Moderate div. & Indust (flora coastl Water Poor ries & 1 Low Agric. Hydro Defore & ecosy resour comm Human Infra- Tour- Output Power station fauna) stems ces unities health struct. ism (S0) Status (Nat. Variability) -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 2 (S1) Status (+CC Impacts =>) -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 Dev. Goals/Policies (+CC Impacts) (A) Growth -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 (B) Poverty alleviation -2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 (C) Food Security -3 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 (D) Employment -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 (E) Trade & Globalisation -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -2 -1 (F) Budget Deficit Reduction -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 (G) Privatisation 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 -1 MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    110. 110. Downscaled GCM Results: Range of Climate Change Predictions for Sri Lanka in 2050 Global Period Rainfall Temperature Scenario Max. temperature: increase by 0.80 C Increase by 50 mm over the B1 NEM baseline Min. temperature : increase by 1.00 C Increase by 350 mm over Max. temperature: increase by 0.80 C the baseline, especially over B1 SWM the Western slopes of the Min. temperature : increase by 0.80 C central hills Increase by 70 mm over the Max. temperature: increase by 1.10 C baseline, especially over the A1F1 NEM Eastern slopes of the central Min. temperature : increase by 1.40 C hills Increase by 520 mm over Max. temperature: increase by 1.10 C the baseline, especially over A1F1 SWM the Western slopes of the Min. temperature : increase by 1.20 C central hills MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    111. 111. Multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium Model linked to sectoral and project level models MACROECONOMY (Multisectoral CGE) TRANSPORT AGRIC-ULTURE & URBAN-IND ENERGY LAND USE ROAD RAIL TREE CROPS RICE REGION REGION I III OTHER FORESTRY REGION II MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    112. 112. Impact on Sri Lanka national economy in 2050* - GDP effect small BUT equity effect larger Crop Change of Total Change Agriculture GDP in 2050 (%) GDP in 2050 (%) Rice -0.36 -2.46 (dry zone – poorer) Plantation Crops +0.10 +0.70 (wet zone – richer) Rice + Plantation -0.26 - 1.76 Crops *Note: Assuming the same economic structure in 2050 MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    113. 113. Sri Lanka CC Impacts: Spatial Distribution MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    114. 114. Some Key Policy Implications1. Moderate overall impact on agricultural output and national economy, but some effects will emerge within next two decades2. Significant potential risk to food security (rice)3. High poverty impact on small farmers4. Equity impact (small rice farms versus large tree crop plantations)5. Demographic impact (potential migration from dry to wet zone) MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    115. 115. Similar Procedure can be usedto Integrate Mitigation into SD Strategy using the AIMMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    116. 116. Subnational-Sectoral and Local-Project Level AnalysisMIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    117. 117. Sustainable Development Assessment Tools(partial equilibrium analysis at sector/project level ) 1. Economic/Financial Assessment (CBA) 2. Environmental Assessment (EA) 3. Social Assessment (SA) 4. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) 5. Poverty Assessment (PA) 6. Technical Assessment (TA) Choice of appropriate SD indicators is vital for SD Assessment MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    118. 118. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA)Economic valuation of environmental(and social) impacts and assets is animportant (and often neglected) aspect ofcost-benefit analysis (CBA)When valuation is not possible, othertechniques like multi-criteria analysis(MCA) can be useful for decision making MIND
    119. 119. Inserting Environmental (& Social) ConcernsInto Conventional Economic Decisionmaking 1Environmental Decisionmaking Systems Analytical Tools and Methods Structure Global Inter- Transnational National Natural Habitats National Macroecon. Land Sectoral Water Regional Air Subsectoral Project MIND
    120. 120. Inserting Environmental (& Social) ConcernsInto Conventional Economic Decisionmaking 2Environmental Decisionmaking Systems Analytical Tools and Methods Structure Global Inter- CONVENTIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Transnational National Analysis Econ. Int. Physical, Biological and Social Impacts ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT Natural Macroecon. Habitats National Anal. National and FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Macroecon. TECHNO-ENGINEERING Land Anal. national Anal. Sectoral & Sub- Sectoral Water Regional Cost -Ben. Proj. Eval. Urban, Indust. Subsectoral and Air Project MIND
    121. 121. Land Water Natural Habitats Global and Air Systems Transnational Urban, Indust.MIND Environmental ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT Physical, Biological and Social Impacts SUSTAINOMICS ENVIRONMENT-ECONOMY INTERFACE Integrated Macro. Econ. Global Impact Resource Anal. & Env. Env. Econ. Valuation Mgmt. Account. Analysis CONVENTIONAL ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Proj. Eval. Sectoral National Int. Cost -Ben. & Sub- Macroecon. Econ. Analytical Tools and Methods Anal. national Anal. Anal. Analysis TECHNO-ENGINEERING and FINANCIAL ANALYSIS Inter- Project Sectoral Regional National Subsectoral National Structure Macroecon. Inserting Environmental (& Social) Concerns Decisionmaking Into Conventional Economic Decisionmaking 3
    122. 122. Social concerns may be incorporatedinto conventional decisionmaking usinga similar approach, but with moredifficulty! MIND
    123. 123. Categories of Economic Value of Environmental Assets (examples from a tropical rain forest) Total Economic Value Use Value Non-use Value Direct use values Indirect use values Option values Existence values Other non-use values Outputs that Value from Functional Future direct and can be knowledge of benefits indirect use values consumed continued directly existence -Food -Ecological -Biodiversity -Biomass functions -Habitats -Conserved -Recreation -Flood control Endangered habitats -Health -Storm protection species Decreasing tangibility of value to individuals MIND
    124. 124. Sustainomics Application – Forest Sector SD Assessment of a Tropical Rainforest in Madagascar Focus on economic valuation of costs and benefits of establishing a new national parkSource: Munasinghe (2007) MIND
    125. 125. Background and ObjectivesMadagascar is economically poor, but ecologically rich (e.g., lemurs). It hasbeen designated a mega-diversity area, whose ecosystems are also at greatrisk. The government is seeking to control forest degradation and protectbiodiversity. This study was the first stage analysis to facilitate a decisionon creating a new national park. The proposed national park would generate both indirect anddirect costs and benefits. Costs arise from acquisition of private land,hiring of park personnel, and development of roads, visitors facilities, andother infrastructure. Other important costs (often ignored) are theopportunity costs from foregone uses of park land. Use-value benefitsfrom tourism can generate considerable national revenues from bothentrance fees and travel expenditures. Non-use benefits include existenceand option values. Indirect benefits may include reduced deforestation,watershed protection and climate regulation. This study seeks to measureimportant but difficult to measure economic impacts, i.e., costs to localvillagers and benefits to foreign tourists. MIND
    126. 126. SD GoalsEconomic - maximise net benefitsSocial - balance (competing) interest of stakeholders(especially the poor): Villagers on-site, Tourists (foreign andlocal), People of Madagascar (Government)Environmental – safeguard and maintain nationa parkand ecosystems MIND
    127. 127. Valuation Techniques Used in Study• Opportunity Cost Analysis• Travel Cost Analysis• Contingent Valuation AnalysisEvaluate Support Benefits of Forests(from MA):Provisioning, Regulation, Cultural MIND
    128. 128. Value of Local Household ActivitiesActivity No. of Total annual Mean annual Observ- value for all value per ations villages (US$) household (US$) Rice 351 $44,928 $128Fuelwood 316 $13,289 $38Crayfish 19 $220 $12 Crab 110 $402 $3.7Tenreck 21 $125 $6 Frog 11 $71 $6.5 MIND
    129. 129. Economic Costs and Benefits of Establishing New National Park (using different methods) Annual mean value Aggregate NPVWelfare losses to local villages (US$)Method Used per householdOpportunity Cost 91 566,070CVM 108 673,078Welfare gains to foreign tourists (US$)Method Used per tripTravel Cost 1 (random utility) 24 936,000Travel Cost 2 (typical trip) 45 1,750,000CVM (use & non-use value) 65 2,530,000 MIND
    130. 130. Madagascar Study - Key ConclusionsPolicy Implications: Can help in investment decisions, resource mobilization, project design and management, including how to(a) allocate scarce capital resources among competing land use activities;(b) choose and implement investments for natural resource conservation and development;(c) determine pricing, land use, and incentive policies;(d) set compensation for local villagers for foregone access to forest areas;(e) show value of park as a global environmental asset to foreigners (e.g., obtain external funds for conservation)Issues: WTP is fundamental to the economic approach, but over- emphasizes value ascribed to richer foreign visitors. If conflicting claims to park access were determined purely on this basis, poor local villagers are more likely to be excluded. However, social aspects of sustainable development (like equity and distributional concerns) will help to protect the basic rights of local residents – e.g., "safe minimum" degree of access to park facilities, “buffer zone”, etc. MIND
    131. 131. Sustainomics application: project levelMulticriteria SD Assessment of small hydro schemes using economic, social and ecological indicatorsPrimary Source: Morimoto R., and Munasinghe M. (2005) “Small hydropowerprojects and sustainable energy development in Sri Lanka”, Int. Journal ofGlobal Environmental Issues, Vol.4.Summary: Munasinghe, M. (2002) “The sustainomics trans-disciplinary meta-framework for making development more sustainable: applications to energyissues”, Int. J. of Sustainable Dev.,Vol.4, No.2, pp.6-54. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development
    132. 132. Overview of study• Energy affects all three dimensions of sustainable development.• Reviews linkages between potential impacts of energy production and consumption on sustainable development,.• Multi-criteria analysis used to assess the role of small hydroelectric power projects in sustainable energy development.• 3 key variables (measured per unit of GHG avoided per year): Economic - electricity supply costs, Social - numbers of people displaced (resettled), Environmental - biodiversity loss• Analysis helps policy-makers compare and rank project alternatives more easily and effectively.• The multi-criteria analysis, which includes environmental and social variables, supplements and balances cost benefit analysis which is based on economic values alone. MIND Munasinghe Institute for Development

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