FORESIGHT Report 2

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FORESIGHT Report 2

  1. 1. REPORT 2 2010 Fall Season TV Report September 2010
  2. 2. As noted in our first report, broadcast television ratings continue to decrease while pricing continues to escalate which is why it is now more important than ever to deploy your brand dollars with more insight and precision. FORESIGHT, which we first debuted in June, is mediahub’s analytical tool that aggregates and assesses digital chatter surrounding new television programs. This follow-up report further gauges subsequent volume and sentiment behind the discussions, and will provide us with an additional window of how well shows will be received at launch, and predicting their chance of success or failure. FORESIGHT is a comprehensive report utilizing Internet debates, forums, discussion boards, blogs, Twitter, Facebook, Digg, Tumblr and news groups. The results derived will not only provide a guide as to what shows to back, but will identify potential opportunities for more innovative brand associations. FORESIGHT reports for the new television season will be released in three intervals – this represents the second iteration. REPORT I: POST UPFRONT MOMENTUM REPORT Timing: June Content: Early Read, after May program announcements REPORT II: FALL SEASON REPORT Timing: August/Early September Content: Identify breakouts and failures REPORT III: MID SEASON REPLACEMENT REPORT Timing: November/December Content: Early read on January/Mid-Season replacements 2
  3. 3. Report timing is based on the volume of digital discussion. Overall, in the early part of this period (May/June), there tended to be fewer people generating messages as show pilots are generally accessible only to a select few (though the networks, being cognizant of online usage, released them early this year, resulting in a higher level of chatter). This noise then declines in subsequent summer months following the announcements. As the fall season promotions began to ramp up in late summer, and with more innovative multimedia promotional support, an increase in the volume of messages created a spike in chatter, as expectations and anticipation rise. As a result, we are thus able to better predict the success and failure of impending shows with greater accuracy. Three key peaks for online chatter drive report timing: 6000 REPORT II 5000 4000 3000 REPORT III NEW FALL SHOWS 2009 Digital Chatter ANNOUNCED 2000 2010 Digital Chatter REPORT I 1000 0 Data Period: 5/16/10-9/5/10 3
  4. 4. INITIAL FINDINGS As in June, NBC is substantially ahead in terms of overall buzz. The net’s investments in quality programming, accompanied by its smart social media usage (its “Fan It” program, in tandem with artful use of Facebook, Twitter, MySpace and FourSquare), and promotional efforts, seem to have paid off, initially. Viewers have been tuning in, and the early part of the fall TV season appears off to a strong start. NBC showed that its investment in expensive content is also bringing benefits - The Event is NBC's most successful series launch (from a ratings standpoint) in three years. CBS had a promising start for Hawaii Five-0 (which has been dominating its time period), and Mike & Molly, despite modest buzz, seems to have settled comfortably in its Monday time period, after the infallible Two And A Half Men. FOX ,again, has the least buzz, not surprising given its meager introduction of three lackluster new fall shows, and limited manipulation of its primetime schedule. Despite critical acclaim, Lone Star debuted poorly, and is the first show to be cancelled this fall, after just two airings. Drawing just 4.1 million viewers in its Period: 5/16/10-9/5/10 premiere, the series' creator went on a campaign, blogging a desperate plea for viewers to tune in. That clearly failed. House also Data Period: 5/16/10-9/5/10 kicked off to lower than expected ratings. And American Idol's new judges are raising some serious eyebrows about the sustainability of the series. As previously mentioned in our last report, what is especially impressive is the buzz generated by The CW with just two new shows which are clearly resonating well with their core target of young females. 4
  5. 5. most DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS least DISCUSSED NEW SHOWS NET SHOW % Buzz NET SHOW % Buzz NBC The Event 17.9% FOX Raising Hope 2.0% NBC Chase 13.3% ABC The Whole Truth 1.8% CW Hellcats 8.0% NBC School Pride 1.7% CW Nikita 7.9% ABC Body of Proof 1.5% FOX Running Wilde 6.5% ABC Better Together 1.4% NBC Outsourced 6.0% CBS $#*! My Dad Says 1.3% NBC Undercovers 4.7% ABC Detroit 1-8-7 0.8% ABC No Ordinary Family 4.2% ABC Secret Millionaire 0.6% CBS Hawaii Five-0 3.8% CBS Mike & Molly 0.5% ABC My Generation 3.2% NBC Law & Order: LA 0.4% 5
  6. 6. BUZZ CALCULATION NBC has four shows in the Top Ten Most Discussed. As before, the network’s adventure-themed fall programming, including The Event, Chase and Undercovers, seemed to resonate online. Love Bites, which previously ranked well, has been yanked from the fall schedule due to behind-the-scenes complications. The show is being replaced with The Apprentice on Thursdays, instead. CW’s Nikita and Hellcats are still highly ranked. Both shows’ recent debuts performed respectably, despite Hellcats less-than-glowing reviews, and the former up against NBC’s Sunday Night Football. CW certainly seems to know its audience, and programs well for them, accordingly. CBS’s Hawaii Five-0 and ABC’s No Ordinary Family continued to generate some discussion, despite the latter’s disastrous debut at San Diego Comic Con. Hawaii Five-0’s debut, though well-rated, has been marred by complaints of violence, and only time will tell if Five-0 will be K-O-ed. In the meantime, it appears to be winning its time period, as we anticipated, based on initial buzz. Similarly, No Ordinary Family is also faring well, ratings-wise. FOX’s well-received Raising Hope was given the season’s first full order. Plagued by continuous panning, CBS’s Twitter-originated show, $#*! My Dad Says, appears to have nothing worthwhile to say, much like ABC’s Detroit 1-8-7 and NBC’s Law & Order: Los Angeles. Despite that, the latter shows have debuted well, and this may be due to its older audiences not contributing much to digital dialogue. On a similar note, critical favorites may also not be the darlings of the viewing public. One example has been FOX’s Lone Star (Sept 20th premiere). That the Fox drama was cancelled is no surprise after its disastrous debut, and low favorable online chatter. While the show’s pilot drew critical acclaim, and stood out from the new pilots for being different compared to the increasing glut of procedurals. But, sometimes, different may not be just good enough. Similarly, ABC’s My Generation was not for this generation, and was also cancelled. 6
  7. 7. SENTIMENT As previously noted, to best gauge success, we believe that the key dynamic is not just volume, but sentiment as well. In many instances, sentiment may take precedence over volume, since it provides a positive, or negative, indicator, of viewer receptiveness. For example, ABC’s The Whole Truth and Secret Millionaire may not have generated the most digital conversations, but combining both shows’ positive sentiment with their buzz, it is likely that they will be well- received. Once again, the two CW new shows, Nikita and Hellcats, performed exceedingly well on both counts, high buzz factor and positive sentiment, both of which were borne out in their premiere ratings. As in our prior report, NBC’s The Event had the highest buzz, but somewhat mixed sentiment. The show is probably one of the most widely anticipated new series of the current season. NBC ran countless promotional spots, in addition to extensive social media support, intended to entice viewers to wonder precisely what the title occurrence might be, and what it might mean. Of course, big hype means big expectations, and it’s an open question whether any show can live up to them. The ratings for The Event’s premiere were good, but not as strong as NBC might have hoped, with the show finishing third in its time slot. That said, the premiere was NBC’s best non-Olympic performance in the time slot since February 2, 2009, and it rose from a 3.5 rating with Adults 18-49 in the first half hour, to a 3.9 in the second half hour. Two shows notable for their negative numbers are ABC’s Detroit 1-8-7 with under 50% positive sentiment (and limited buzz), and CBS’s $#*! My Dad Says, with under 5% positive sentiment (with nominally more buzz). Yet, in its debut, Detroit 1-8-7 greatly improved the hour for ABC, despite airing opposite the second hour of CBS’s 2-hour NCIS: Los Angeles season opener in the 10 o’clock hour. The series debut also stood as the 2nd-most-watched TV show in the hour, outdrawing NBC’s time-period established Parenthood by 58% (9.3 million vs. 5.9 million). What does this tell us? Perhaps that online chatter isn’t the final arbiter of a show’s success, but merely that of a show’s most passionate supporters, or detractors – it is a compass, but not a sherpa. 7
  8. 8. 2010 Fall Shows – Positive Sentiment 100% The Whole Truth Secret Millionaire No Ordinary Family School Pride The Event 90% Body of Proof Better Together Chase Hawaii 5-0 Hellcats 80% Hellcats Nikita LAW & ORDER: LA The Event Undercovers Running Wilde Mike & Molly 70% Outsourced My Generation Raising Hope Undercovers Nikita Chase 60% % Positive Sentiment No Ordinary Family Outsourced Hawaii 5-0 50% My Generation Detroit 1-8-7 Raising Hope Running Wilde The Whole Truth 40% Body of Proof School Pride 30% Better Together $#*! My Dad Says 20% Detroit 1-8-7 Mike & Molly 10% Lonestar Secret Millionaire LAW & ORDER: LA $#*! My Dad Says 0% Lonestar 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% - - - Median % Buzz
  9. 9. Most Discussed Fall 2010 Shows – Positive Sentiment 100% 90% No Ordinary Family Hawaii 5-0 80% Hellcats The Event Undercovers 70% My Generation The Event Running Wilde Chase Chase 60% % Positive Sentiment Nikita Hellcats Outsourced Nikita 50% Running Wilde Outsourced 40% Undercovers No Ordinary Family 30% Hawaii 5-0 My Generation - - - Median 20% 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% % Buzz
  10. 10. Least Discussed Fall 2010 Shows 100% School Pride The Whole Truth Secret Millionaire 90% Better Together 80% Body of Proof LAW & ORDER: LA Mike & Molly 70% Raising Hope Raising Hope The Whole Truth 60% % Positive Sentiment Body of Proof School Pride 50% Better Together Detroit 1-8-7 $#*! My Dad Says 40% Detroit 1-8-7 Mike & Molly 30% Secret Millionaire LAW & ORDER: LA - - - Median 20% 10% $#*! My Dad Says 0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% % Buzz
  11. 11. RECAP At this point in time, the following may be surmised: No Surprises: As we prognosticated, NBC’s investment and commitment to new scripted fare have helped them rebound, pushing them to the number two slot against favored CBS. Although some of their freshman series lived up to their pre- launch buzz, the network is seeing the sampling subside quicker than they’d like to, so they are not out of the woods yet. Their leading new series, The Event, is doing decently, but it will be interesting to see how long the network will fund an expensive series that may not be pulling the mass audience they need. No one is surprised that CBS - the most stable of all networks - would be in first place, nor were we surprised that the much anticipated launch of Hawaii Five-0 delivered on its promise. CW hums along with their two new freshman series fitting nicely into their lineup, helping to maintain their stability. Conversely, the lack of pre-launch buzz was a definite sign that Fox was in for a rough fall launch. After two dismal airings Lone Star was pulled, leaving two other new series on the potential cutting block: The Good Guys and Running Wilde. The only thing saving these two series is the lack of alternatives to slot in. Similarly ABC had already pulled My Generation, and have three new series in jeopardy: Whole Truth, Detroit 1-8-7 and Better With You. A Few Surprises: We were surprised that No Ordinary Family did not score more pre-launch buzz than it did, but equally surprised it has done relatively decently two weeks into the new season in its Tuesday 8PM time slot against FOX’s Glee and NBC’s Biggest Loser. That’s good news for ABC, which is seeing its other freshman series failing, and many of its other series losing staying power. The other surprise for us was two of the CBS freshman series that lacked either pre- launch buzz, or generated negative buzz, are actually holding their own. Granted it helps to be on the number one network, and in advantageous time slots with strong lead-ins, so there is certainly a sampling advantage, but we still wonder how long #$^ My Dad Says and Mike & Molly can hang in there. Please note that the above report is but an indication of interest and not a prediction of the long-term success. Other factors, like how much promotional support each network places behind each show; in what time period it is allocated; the shows it is up against; lead-ins, lead-outs; and quality of script play key roles. 11
  12. 12. FALL 2010 SEASON MOST RECENT WEEK’S RATINGS RECAP For your convenient reference: 12

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