Population Dynamics

3,418 views
3,222 views

Published on

Published in: Education
1 Comment
3 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
3,418
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
131
Comments
1
Likes
3
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Population Dynamics

  1. 1. Population DynamicsLokhaze AliVisiting FacultyNICE, SCEE, NUST
  2. 2. Population Dynamics 2
  3. 3. Population Dynamics 3
  4. 4. Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C• One thing is sure - the earth isnow more cultivated anddeveloped than ever before.There is more farming withpure force, swamps are dryingup, and cities are springing upon unprecedented scale• Weve become a burden toour planet. Resources arebecoming scare, and soonnature will no longer be ableto satisfy our needs. Thetime will ultimately comewhen pest, hunger, floodsand war will diminish theexcessive numbers of ourhuman species.Population Dynamics 4
  5. 5. Global population evolutionThe history of the global populationFor thousands of years the world population remained well below 500 million.Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed to over 7billion.Population Dynamics 5
  6. 6. World Population: Time to Add Successive Billions inWorld Population, 1800 to 2050Source: United Nations 1995; United Nations World PopulationProspects: The 2008 Revision Population DatabasePopulation Dynamics 6
  7. 7. What is Population?Number of people residing in a countryand is measured as a snapshot at aparticular timeThe two components of Population Growth• Natural Increase• Net overseas migrationPopulation Dynamics 7
  8. 8. Population in majorareas, estimates and mediumscenario: 1950-2300Population Dynamics 8
  9. 9. Estimated World-Population1800-2100Population Dynamics 9
  10. 10. UN DESA continent population1950 to 2100Population Dynamics 10
  11. 11. Top 10 World Most Populous CountriesRank Country / Territory Population Date% of worldpopulation1 China 1,356,110,000 February 22, 2013 19.2%2 India 1,210,193,422 March 2011 17%3 United States 315,550,000 February 22, 2013 4.46%4 Indonesia 237,641,000 May 2010 3.36%5 Brazil 197,755,000 February 22, 2013 2.8%6 Pakistan 182,310,000 February 22, 2013 2.58%7 Nigeria 170,123,740 July 2012 2.41%8 Bangladesh 161,083,804 July 2012 2.28%9 Russia 141,927,297 January 1, 2010 2.008%10 Japan 127,547,000 June 1, 2012 1.8%Population Dynamics 11
  12. 12. Ranking of 15 Most PopulousCountries from 1970 to 2050Population Dynamics 12
  13. 13. If the World were 100 PEOPLE• 50 would be female50 would be male• 26 would be childrenThere would be 74 adults, 8 ofwhom would be 65 and older• 60 Asians15 Africans14 Americans11 Europeans• 33 Christians22 Muslims14 Hindus7 Buddhists12 people who practice otherreligions12 people who would not bealigned with a religion• 83 would be able to read andwrite; 17 would not• 7 would have a college degree22 would own or share acomputer• 77 people would have a place toshelter them from the wind andthe rain, but 23 would not• 87 would have access to safedrinking water13 people would have noclean, safe water to drinkPopulation Dynamics 13
  14. 14. Population Forecasts
  15. 15. Population Forecasts• Population forecastsdepend on the amount andtype of data available• Population forecasts alsodepend on the resourcesavailable i.e. the amount ofmoney that you are willingto spend• Forecasts are susceptibleto error if for no otherreason that nobody knowsthe futureMethods• Graphical• Mathematical orLogistical• Ratio andCorrelation• Component• Population DensitiesPopulation Dynamics 15
  16. 16. Arithmetic or Zero Orderdp/dt= KaP = P1 + Ka (t - t1)Ka = (P2-P1)/ (t2-t1)P = populationt = timeKa = arithmetic growthconstantPopulation Dynamics 17
  17. 17. Example # 1Given: Arithmetic NumericalCaset1 = 1990, P1=110,500t2 = 2000, P2=118,200Find:A.) KaB.) General equationC.) Population in 2020A.) KaKa = (P2-P1)/ (t2-t1)= (118200-110500)/(2000-1990)= 7700/10Ka = 770B.) General equationP = P1 + Ka (t - t1)P = 110,500 + 770 (t -t1990), based on 1990Any population and thecorresponding year may beused:P = 118,200 + 770 (t -t2000), based on 2000C.) Population in 2020P2020 =P1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)P2020 = 110,500 + 770 (2020-1990), based on 1990P2020 = 110,500 + 23,100P2020 = 133,600Population Dynamics 18
  18. 18. Geometric or First Orderdp/dt= KgPlnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)Kg = (lnP2-lnP1)/(t2-t1)Kg = ln(P2/P1)/(t2-t1)P = populationt = timeKg = geometric growth constantNote: lim (1+K)1/K = e = 2.718… base of the natural logarithmsK 0Population Dynamics 19
  19. 19. Example # 2Given: Geometric NumericalCaset1 = 1990, P1=110,500t2 = 2000, P2=118,200Find:A.) KgB.) General equationC.) Population in 2020A.) KgKg = ln(P2)-ln(P1)/(t2-t1)= ln(P2/P1)/(t2-t1)=(ln1182000-ln110500)/(2000-1990)= 0.07/10Kg = 0.00700B.) General equationlnP = lnP1 + Kg (t - t1)lnP = ln (110,500) + 0.00700(t-1990)lnP = 11.61+0.00700(t-1990)P = e(11.61+.00700(t-1990)Any population and the correspondingyear may be used:C.) Population in 2020lnP2020 =lnP1990 + Ka (t2020 - t1990)lnP = 11.61 + 0.00700(2020-1990)= 11.61 + 0.21lnP = 11.82P2020 = e 11.82P2020 = 135,944Population Dynamics 20
  20. 20. Ratio and Correlation Method• Assumes that the populationgrowth rate of any givencommunity can be related toa larger region, i.e.county, state.• Use of the appropriate scalefactor allows correlationFormulasP2/P2R = P1/P1R = KRP2 = Projected populationP2R = Projected population inthe larger regionP1 = Population at last censusfor the projected regionP1R = Population at last censusfor the projected region in thelarger regionKR = ratio or correlationconstantPopulation Dynamics 21
  21. 21. Component MethodBased on the detailedanalysis of thecomponents that makeup population growth:• Naturalincrease, births overdeaths• Migration whoseaccuratedetermination isextremely complexPopulation Dynamics 22
  22. 22. Population Densities• Zoning Categories (Typical, varyby community)• "Fly", survey the town to gathertopographical, physical data.• Consult the community planningentity and determine the zoningplan.• Combine the zoning and physicaldata.• Measure the number of acres ineach zoning category. Multiplythe acreage by the density.Total the results which is thecurrent population if existingacreage is used or thesaturation population if all theland is considered.Zoning Category Density (persons/acre)Residential - single 5-35Residential - multiple 30-100Apartments 100-1000Commercial 15-30Industrial 5-15Open 0Population Dynamics 23
  23. 23. Example # 3Zoning Category Area(acres)Residential - single 457Residential -multiple112Apartments 3Commercial 87Industrial 22Open 176ZoningCategoryArea (acres) Usage(people/acre)PopResidential- single457 20 9,140Residential- multiple112 65 7,280Apartments 3 550 1,650Commercial 87 22.5 1,958Industrial 22 10 220Open 176 0 0TOTAL 20,248Given: You have overflown a city,identified the zoningcompositions and plain meteredthe areas with the followingresult:Find: The populationPopulation Dynamics 24
  24. 24. Assignment # 2 Due Date: 4th March,2013Given: Arithmetic NumericalCaset1 = 2000, P1=150,000t2 = 2010, P2=178,200Find:A.) KaB.) General equationC.) Population in 2020, 2030 and2050Note: The assignment should behandwritten and submittedindividuallyGiven: Geometric NumericalCaset1 = 2000, P1=150,000t2 = 2010, P2=178,200Find:A.) KgB.) General equationC.) Population in 2020, 2030 and2050Population Dynamics 25
  25. 25. Pakistan’s PopulationPopulation Dynamics 26
  26. 26. Pakistan’s Population RankOrder in the WorldPopulation Dynamics 27Year Rank Population (Million)1950 14 33.02009 6 169Net Addition in PopulationBIRTHS DEATHS ADDITIONIn One Year 4.2M 1.3M 2.9MOne Month 350,833 110,000 240,833One Day 11,534 3,616 7,918One Minute 8 3 5
  27. 27. Pakistan Population Policy2010Population Dynamics 28
  28. 28. Population Dynamics 29
  29. 29. Our Future-Our ChoicesPopulation Dynamics 30
  30. 30. Thank Youlokhaze@hotmail.comCell: 0345-5077775

×