Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

An estimation of economic, locational and climatic variables on chick pea production

85

Published on

Impact of climate on chick Pea productivitt

Impact of climate on chick Pea productivitt

Published in: Education, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
85
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Muhammad Usman M.Sc. (Hons) Agricultural Economics 2012 Supervised by: Prof. Dr. M. Ashfaq Director, Institute of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Agriculture Faisalabad.
  • 2. Topic An Estimation of Economic, Locational and Climatic effect on Average Yield of Chickpea in Rain-fed Areas.
  • 3. Outline Effect of Climatic Factors on Yield of chickpea  Temperature  Rainfall
  • 4. Introduction  Climate change is one of the complex challenges of the new era and Pakistan is adversely affected by climatic change.  Climate change effect on the food crops is a burning issue and country like Pakistan is subject to serious effects of climate change. Many crops are being grown in Pakistan and chickpea is also very important crop because it is grown on marginal and rain-fed areas.  Being important in pulses Pakistan stands at 3rd position in term of chickpea production, 2nd in term of area but 6th in term of yield of Chickpea.
  • 5. Continued….  In 2010-11, Pakistan had 0.561(million tonns) production of Chickpea but if look at the yield, It is evident that chickpea yield in the country is low compared to other agricultural countries.  In Pakistan chickpea is grown in all four provinces but major share of its production comes from Punjab(91.6 percent).
  • 6. Continued….  In Punjab Bakhar, Mianwali, Layyah, Jhang and Khushab are the major producers of the chickpea (GOP, 2011).  Desi and Kabuli are two main kinds of Chickpea
  • 7. Continued….  Chickpeas need a subtropical or tropical climate with more than 400 millimeters (16 inches) of annual rain.  In 2012, the production is decreased by 41.3 percent because of low rainfall, high temperature and specially the frost effect last year (GOP, 2012).
  • 8. Continued….  Among the other climatic factors change in temperature and change in rainfall has significant effect on crop yield.
  • 9. Objectives  To estimate the economic, locational and climatic effect on average yield of chickpea in the selected districts of Punjab province.  To evaluate the yield response of the farmers in the selected districts of the Punjab province.  To suggest policy options for chickpea on the basis of results.
  • 10. Methodology Secondary data of two Districts (Mianwali, Khushab) on Climate variables (temperature and rainfall) and economic variables (input prices, output prices and yield) for the period of 1981 to 2011 were used. Sources of the data are • Regional Metrological Department • Punjab Development Statistics • National Fertilizer Development Center, Islamabad, • Economic survey of Pakistan
  • 11. Continued…. The model used to estimate the effect is given below Yieldt=βo+β1input_change+β2input_change_sq+β3area_chan ge+β4area_change_sq+β5time_trend+β6temp_max_sowing+β 7temp_max_maturity+β8rainfall_vegetation +β9rainfall_maturity+µt………
  • 12. Continue… Economic Variables: Change in Input use Pcrop *(∆y/ ∆Qinput) = (Pinput) Input_change = ∆Qinput = Qinput,t – Qinput,t-1 Pcrop,t-1 (Ycrop,t –Ycrop,t-1)/Pinput,t Site Variables: Change in area under cultivation of Chickpea
  • 13. Continued…. Climatic variables:   Temperature Rainfall
  • 14. Results and Discussions Yield response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables for Mianwali district Coefficients B (Constant) Std. Error t-value Sig. 16.862 27.397 0.615 0.5455 0.763 0.272 2.800 0.011 0.011 0.065 0.176 0.861 0.046 0.0005 0.034 1.341 0.195 0.0001 -1.113 0.279 0.153 0.077 1.992 0.060 1.176 0.374 3.138 0.005 -1.367 0.781 -1.752 0.095 0.008 0.020 0.403 0.691 -0.011 0.62 0.011 -1.004 0.327 R-square F-value 6.06 P-value 000 Input_change Input_change_sq Areaa_change Area_change_sq Time_trend Temp_max_maturi ty Temp_max_sowin g Rainfall_vegetatio n Rainfall_maturity Dependent Variable: Yield (Mounds/hectare)
  • 15. Continued… Yield response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables for Khushab district Coefficients B (Constant) Std. Error t-value Sig. 15.939 9.624 1.656 0.114 0.754 0.165 4.571 0.000 Input_change_sq -0.031 0.035 -0.891 0.383 Areaa_change -0.015 0.021 -0.738 0.469 -0.0002 0.0005 -0.541 0.594 Time_trend 0.185 0.038 4.760 0.000 Temp_max_maturity 0.450 0.169 2.661 0.015 Temp_max_sowing -0.659 0.226 -2.915 0.008 Rainfall_vegetation 0.034 0.011 2.945 0.008 -0.010 0.012 -0.876 0.392 Input_change Area_change_sq Rainfall_maturity R-square 0.68 F-value 16.45 P-value 000 Dependent Variable: Yield (Mounds/hectare)
  • 16. Continued…. Yield response to Economic, Site and Climatic Variables for both district Coefficients B (Constant) Std. Error t-value Sig. 10.317 9.718 1.061 0.293 2.105 0.384 5.470 0.000 -0.198 0.208 -0.954 0.344 0.002 0.019 0.118 0.905 0.00005 0.000 0.565 0.574 Time_trend 0.213 0.038 5.549 0.000 Temp_max_maturity 0.639 0.160 3.985 0.000 Temp_max_sowing -0.691 0.246 -2.806 0.007 Rainfall_vegetation 0.017 0.010 1.612 0.113 -0.002 0.008 -0.277 0.782 Input_change Input_change_sq Areaa_change Area_change_sq Rainfall_maturity R-square 0.640 F-value 15.20 P-value 000 Dependent Variable: Yield (Mounds/hectare)
  • 17. Policy Suggestions  The negative effect of high temperature can be avoided by switching to the chickpea varieties having different growing periods and heat tolerant capacity.  The benefits of the longer growing seasons of the chickpea can be taken by changing the planting dates of the crop which will help the farmer to take the full advantage of the rainfall at the later stages of the crop.  As the farmers of the chickpea are solely dependent on the rainfall to get better yield so there should be awareness programs on the use of modern irrigation techniques like sprinkler irrigation etc.
  • 18. Questions
  • 19. Thank You

×