Demand forecasting of MSEB

1. Demand Forecasting
Forecasting methods for energy in Maharashtra State

2.  ANISH KUMAR (10)
 NIZAMUDHEEN TK (50)
 AKBAR HASAN (12)
 MUSHARAT KHAN (21)
 TOSIF KHAN (24)
 AQUEEB NADIM KHAN (17)
 SAHIL GADHAVE (09)
 SHADAB KHAN (20)
 MUGDHA PEDNEKAR (32)
Team Members

3.  “Demand forecasting refers to the prediction
or estimation of future demand of a product.”
 Objectives
 Under or over production
 Market structure
Demand Forecasting

4.  Identify products
 Set parameters
 Determine market
 Gather data
 Calculate actual forecast
Steps in Demand Forecasting

5. Techniques
Survey Methods
Consumer
survey
Opinion Poll
Statistical
Methods
Trend
projection
Barometric
Econometric
Techniques of Demand Forecasting

6.  Short Term Demand Forecast
End-use method
E = S x N x P x H
where,
E = energy consumption of an appliance in kWh
S = penetration level in terms of number of such appliances per
customer
N = number of customers
P = power required by the appliance in kW
H = hours of appliance use.
Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State
Electricity Board

7.  Long term Demand Forecast
Econometric approach
ED = f (Y, Pi, Pj, POP, T)
where,
ED = electricity demand
Y = output or income
Pi = own price
Pj = price of related fuels
POP = population
T = technology
Demand forecasting of Maharashtra State
Electricity Board

8. Residential ED = f (Y per capita, POP, Pi, Pj)
Industrial ED = g (Y of power intensive industries, GFKF or I, index
of T, index of GP)
where,
ED = Energy Demand
GFKF = Gross fixed capital formation
I = Investment
T = Technology
GP = government policy, and f and g represent functional forms
Demand for energy in specific sectors

9.  Hydro Generation Availability
 Varies with rainfall
 10,400 MW
 Liquified Natural Gas
 More than 5 million tons
 $3.5/MMBtu at Dahej
Other energy sources

10.  High tension consumers
 8870 HT consumers
 Consumption is 32 %
 Low tension consumers
 297,612 LT consumers
 Consumption is 10%
Demand response from industrial
consumers

11.  Sophisticated and relevant tools
 Results for MSEB
 Acute shortage
 Industrial generation
 Agricultural demand
 Potential wholesale electricity market
Conclusion