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Nexus 1105 - new times magazine

  1. 1. NEXUS NEW TIMES MAGAZINE Volume 11, Number 5 AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 UK/Europe edition Website: http://www.nexusmagazine.comLETTERS TO THE EDITOR.............................................4 SCIENCE NEWS: GLOBAL SCALING THEOR Y...........49 Comments on NEXUS-related topics, including a by Hartmut Müller, PhD. An understanding of chemtrails conspiracy going back to the 1960s, an logarithmic space sheds new light on the origin of encounter with the Egyptian Antiquities director, gravitation and sug gests ho w interplanetary and successes in treating AIDS in Africa. communication is possible using standing waves.GLOBAL NEWS.............................................................6 PROPHECIES FROM THE MEIER CONTACTS.............55 Groundbreaking news, including the Ve r n e s h o t By Michael Horn, and with contactee Billy Meier in hypothesis that may explain some impact craters, discussion with Quetzal, the Plejaren, on the new electric stun weapons that can target crowds, Henoch Prophecies. So many Plejaren predictions and the late September flypast of asteroid Toutatis. have come true that wed be wise to heed theirPEAK OIL REVISITED: CONFERENCE IN BERLIN......1 1 warnings of annihilation and learn to live together. By Michael C. Ruppert. Were on the brink of a THE TWILIGHT ZONE................................................63 global energy crisis as major oilfields decline in Strange tales from on and off our world. This issue p r o d u c t i v i t y, new infrastructure becomes too we present Linda Moulton Howes interview with expensive to build and demand continues to rise. former US naval intelligence officer C. B. Scott JonesDEATH BY MEDICINE—Part 1...................................17 on the UFO cover-up and need for disclosure. By Carolyn Dean, MD, ND, Martin Feldman, MD, REVIEWS—Books........................................................69 Gary Null, PhD, and Debora Rasio, MD. This "Sorcerers Apprentice" by Amy Wallace landmark analysis of thousands of studies reveals "Ayahuasca...The Vine of the Soul" by Joan Parisi Wilcox that mistakes made by the medical/pharmaceutical "The Book of Floating" by Michael Hutchison "Genesis of the Cosmos" by Paul A. LaViolette, PhD system are the leading cause of death in the USA. "Crop Circles: Evidence of a Cover-up" by Nicolas MontigianiTHE HIDDEN DANGERS OF SOY ALLERGENS..........25 "Primary Perception" by Cleve Backster By Kaayla T. Daniel, PhD. Since the mid-1990s, "Holistic Handbook of Sauna Therapy" by Nenah Sylver, PhD more soy content has been added to processed "Bushwomen: Tales of a Cynical Species" by Laura Flanders "Retrocognitions" by Wagner Alegretti food products than ever before. The rise in allergic "Sign Language of the Soul" by Dr Dale H. Schusterman reactions to soy is a major public health concern, "The Earth Chronicles Expeditions" by Zecharia Sitchin and GE soy is further complicating the problem. "Moon Landings: Did NASA Lie?" by Philippe LheureuxTHE MYSTERIOUS ORIGINS OF OIL.........................33 "The Emerald Modem" by Richard Leviton "Exopolitics" by Michel E. Salla, PhD By Siegfried E. Tischler, PhD. Oil is not formed by the decay of organic matter but is created by REVIEWS—Videos.......................................................76 hydrogenation processes deep within the Earth. So "Expressions of ET Contact: A Visual Blueprint?" (2003 Edition) "Expressions...: A Communication & Healing Blueprint?" are we still facing the end of the Age of Oil? REVIEWS—Music........................................................77PRIMARY PERCEPTION: THE BACKSTER EFFECT......41 "Bowmboï" by Rokia Traoré Interview by Derrick Jensen. When Cleve Backster "World Reggae" by various artists attached polygraph electrodes to a plant in 1966, "Taiko to Tabla" by Joji Hirota and Peter Lockett he obtained readings that indicated living cells tune "Incendio" by Incendio into and respond to their environment as well as to "Comfort Zone" by Ian Cameron Smith human emotions and intentions. NEXUS BOOKS, VIDEOS, ADS, SUBS...................87–96AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 1
  2. 2. EditorialNEXUS MAGAZINE W ell, were still here! Despite the fears of many asteroid and gossip watchers, humanity Volume 11, Number 5 has survived another round of doomsday rumours. For those who came in late, Ill AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 explain briefly. Over the last few months, various alleged whistleblowers have PUBLISHED BY emerged, claiming to have knowledge of upcoming asteroid strikes upon Earth. A couple of these NEXUS Magazine Pty Ltd, Australia sounded most convincing, and the jury is still out on how much is rubbish and how much is real. EDITOR The first round of announced impact dates was late June, which yielded many meteorite showers Duncan M. Roads and impacts but no "big ones", obviously. According to these whistleblowers, this is just the beginning of more to come. I guess we shall see. However, there is one asteroid that we do CO-EDITOR Catherine Simons know has a near miss-date with Earth, and that is Toutatis, which will near-miss the Earth (we hope) on 29 September this year. I say "we hope" because Toutatis has a most erratic orbital path ASSISTANT EDITOR/SUB-EDITOR through the solar system. Remember, of course, that the worlds experts have already announced Ruth Parnell that if they do see a doomsday asteroid, they will not be telling us mere mortals about it! UK OFFICE ADMIN Back in the NEXUS office, we have so many great articles (again) for this issue that I could Marcus Allen just burst with enthusiasm over them. CONTRIBUTORS THIS ISSUE First up, we have a couple of articles on Oil, both of which should be widely read by anyone Michael C. Ruppert; Carolyn Dean, MD, ND, Martin Feldman, MD, Gary Null, PhD, trying to get a handle on geopolitics. Mike Ruppert is still pounding the podiums with his mes- Debora Rasio, MD; Kaayla T. Daniel, PhD, CCN; sage that global oil production has already peaked and we are now witnessing the scramble by the Siegfried E. Tischler, PhD; Derrick Jensen; superpowers to secure what is left—and attempt to get away with it in front of their competitors. Dr. rer.nat. Hartmut Müller; Michael Horn; Prof. Siegfried Tischler (whos to speak at the NEXUS Conference) examines the origin of oil. Linda Moulton Howe You probably think that oil comes from decaying dinosaurs and swamps, etc., but youd probably CARTOONS be wrong. Prof. Tischler has lifted the lid on a secret that not many people dare discuss. Phil Somerville Next we have "Death by Medicine", an article that should make everyones blood boil and COVER GRAPHIC should make medical professionals recoil in horror and disgust at themselves. You have probably John Cook, heard the rumours that more people die from medical mistakes than car accidents, etc. Well, the PRINTING statistics are much, much worse than that, and they apply to developed countries like the USA, Goodhed Print Group, Bicester, Oxon., UK Canada, Australia, UK, New Zealand, etc. In the USA, the figure is the equivalent of six jumbo DISTRIBUTION jets full of people dropping out of the sky every day—that is how many Americans alone are Seymours, London, UK killed by iatrogenic events. And many say this is still a conservative figure! The next time some- one dares to suggest that alternative medicine might be harmful, show them how harmful main- UK OFFICE - 55 Queens Rd, East Grinstead, West Sussex, RH19 1BG. stream medicine is and ask them to compare and contrast the choices. Ph: 01342 322854; Fax: 01342 324574 While we are on health issues, we have another article on a subject that most "alternative health e-mail address: publishers" still refuse to cover, and that is that soy products are causing major health problems Website: for more and more people. One of these problems is that increasing numbers of people, children included, are becoming dangerously and suddenly allergic to soy proteins (which are found in EUROPE OFFICE - PO Box 48, 1600 AA most processed foods these days). This is just another nail in the coffin for modern soy products. Enkhuizen, The Netherlands. Next, we have an article that will upset many vegetarians but will delight anyone who wants to Ph: +31 (0)228 324076; Fax: +31 (0)228 312081 e-mail address: believe in the fact that plants have consciousness and feelings. The article on Primary Perception goes much further than plants. Here we have Cleve Backster, the worlds foremost expert and HEAD OFFICE - Articles, Reviews, etc. PO Box 30, Mapleton, Qld 4560, Australia. inventor of the polygraph (lie detector), who went on to discover (by accident) that plants respond Ph: +61 7 5442 9280; Fax: +61 7 5442 9381 to human thoughts and feelings. The article is so amazing and has so many implications that I e-mail address: could fill a book of editorials with my excitement over it! Just be sure to read the article, and then ITALY OFFICE - c/- Avalon Edizioni, Piazza get his new book (see the review this issue). Life will never be the same again for you! Mazzini 52, 35137 Padova, Italy And speaking of life never being same again for you, what will you make of the Henoch Ph/Fax: +39 (0)49 912 6006 Prophecies article, I wonder? Last year I had cause to re-investigate some of the material from e-mail address: famous Swiss ET contactee Billy Meier, and I emerged with a sense of amazement at the ongoing USA OFFICE - 2940 E. Colfax, #131, events surrounding him. The predictions given to Meier that have come true are extraordinary, to Denver CO 80206 USA say the least, mainly because they have come true, often on the date given. In the article, you will Tel: 303 321 5006; Fax: 720 941 9352 see a list of predictions, and the subsequent verification of events and information. In light of E-mail: this, how seriously should we take the so-called Henoch Prophecies given to Meier? Once again, STATEMENT OF PURPOSE we read a series of prophecies where it is said to us that "Unless you human beings change yourNEXUS recognises that humanity is undergoing a course, these are the events you are steering towards..." The Henoch Prophecies are shocking,massive transformation. With this in mind, NEXUS depressing and challenging, and I publish them in the hope that enough people become aware ofseeks to provide hard-to-get information so as toassist people through these changes. NEXUS is not these possible futures and will thus avoid them.linked to any religious, philosophical or political And just because I havent mentioned the Science News article on Global Scaling Theory tillideology or organisation. now, doesnt mean it is not important, and ditto for Twilight Zone. Remember, everything I select PERMISSION-TO-REPRODUCE POLICY for publication has something in it that I believe is a piece of the big jigsaw puzzle of life.While reproduction and dissemination of the infor- So if you are interested in the meaning of life, once again I extend an invitation to come to ourmation in NEXUS is actively encouraged, anyone amazing three-day, two-evening NEXUS Conference in Brisbane on 24–26 September (justcaught making a buck out of it, without our express before Toutatis swishes by!). I would love to meet as many of you as possible there.permission, will be in trouble when we catch them! Duncan WARRANTY AND INDEMNITYAdvertisers upon and by lodging material with the Publisher for publication or authorising or approving of the publication of any material INDEMNIFY thePublisher and its servants and agents against all liability claims or proceedings whatsoever arising from the publication and without limiting the generality of theforegoing to indemnify each of them in relation to defamation, slander of title, breach of copyright, infringement of trademarks or names of publication titles, unfaircompetition or trade practices, royalties or violation of rights or privacy AND WARRANT that the material complies with all relevant laws and regulations and thatits publication will not give rise to any rights against or liabilities in the Publisher, its servants or agents and in particular that nothing therein is capable of beingmisleading or deceptive or otherwise in breach of the Part V of the Trade Practices Act 1974. All expressions of opinion are published on the basis that they arenot to be regarded as expressing the opinion of the Publisher or its servants or agents. Editorial advice is not specific and readers are advised to seek professionalhelp for individual problems. The publisher reserves the right to refuse any advertising material for any reason. © NEXUS New Times 20042 • NEXUS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004
  3. 3. AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 3
  4. 4. Letters to the Editor ...Chemtrails and Conspiracies personnel living there after retire- completed with HELP. One was I believe helps to bind our universe Interesting to read about the ment than anywhere else on the conducted in South Africa at an together and which enables us tochemtrail issue, as I have some info planet, due to the humidity and AIDS hospice, in which five out of keep these dense physical bodies ofyou may or may not be aware of. also the proximity to a safe under- six patients recovered. The one ours alive. I have always believed Years ago, whilst serving in the ground facility! problem patient had serious diar- this force to enter our dimensionRoyal Australian Air Force, I was My wife had pretty bad asthma rhoea and couldnt absorb much. via stars like our sun, but the ideaattached to No. 1 ARDU at at the time, so I decided not to sign The other trial was in Kenya that it may also emanate fromLaverton, Victoria, which by the on for another term at the end of with three people who were very black holes makes these awesomeway is now only grass, disused my enlistment after also learning weak and passing into AIDS. phenomena a lot more interesting.buildings (above ground, anyway), about the "other substances" being They are now all much better. I began to utilise this wonderfuland an old disused runway. used to test Australians immune None of these nine patients had force for healing purposes severalARDU stands for Aircraft systems, which were then and are ever taken any antiretroviral drugs. years ago to remarkable effect—Research and Development Unit, now still being deliberately sprayed It seems as if some AIDS which really amazed scepticaland I happened to be working into the air above us—for our patients develop serious diarrhoea me—but the thought of one dayalongside American pilots and air- "benefit", of course! and, with it, secondary nutritional having access to instruments whichmen who were here with the U2 So, way back in the late deficiencies that in themselves can precisely channel superlight fre-spyplane project. 1960s/early 1970s, I knew about prove fatal. quencies in a very practical way is Spyplanes, my arse! They sure the coming privatisation of our What these patients appear to truly exciting! I hope that daywere taking pictures, but not just of councils, resources, utilities and need is a very good multivitamin/ comes real soon.the enemy but of our landscape banks long before it was made mineral supplement and balanced Thanks again for your wonderfuland weather patterns, and whilst public and also about what the diet to correct these secondary defi- magazine, Duncan. Keep up theperforming this function they were powers-that-be had in store for us, ciencies. Naturally, they should good work.also spraying barium into the stra- but nobody believed what I was still receive the four key nutrients: Regards,tus clouds along with aluminium saying at union rallies and such. selenium, cysteine, tryptophan and Dave Dennis, davedenoz@oxide dust—for experimental sun- If you think that looks bad, it glutamine. effect, we were told. Yeah, gets worse, and so does the other There can be little doubt thatright! info I have kept silent about for AIDS is a nutritional disease One of the other functions I had years due to the non-disclosure caused by a virus. Getting the Hidden D-Day Historywas to be a supervisor at the clause I was forced to sign on my establishment to believe this is Dear Duncan: As the sixtiethAirmens Club after hours, which discharge papers. another matter. anniversary of D-Day approaches,brought me into social contact with I can say this, though. If Dr Len What is needed now is the sup- we ask your readers to spare asome of these airmen and their Horowitz had published his books port for a large (100-patient) scien- thought for genuine war veteransofficers, who rather took a liking to 30 years ago, more people in this tific study that cannot be ignored who choose not to belong to veter-our women enlistees not to men- country would have had a greater so easily. This is easy to say, but ans associations; their voice is sel-tion our wives and girlfriends, but perspective on what was happening difficult to fund. I have two possi- dom, if ever, heard.the thing they really took a liking to their countryside, and possibly ble locations for it. My father survived the entireto was our Aussie beer! So, being more would have done something Regards, siege of Malta, on small arms, airan inquisitive type, yours truly about it—who knows—and maybe, Harry Foster, Canada, and coastal defence, where he suf-always managed to get " e x t r a just maybe, we, instead of the fered malnutrition in one of theduties" so as to be around these military-medical-pharmaceutical [See Dr Harold D. Fosters two- most heavily bombed areas ofpeople, as they used to shoot off cartels, would still own our own part article, "AIDS: The World War Two.their mouths more than Aussies country. Selenoenzyme Solution" in NEXUS Later he was amongst the initialdid, especially after more Aussie I would like to write a book 11/01–2. Ed.] infantry assaults to invade Sicily,beer. about all this, or even a movie, but Italy and Normandy (on D-Day— I recollect being informed by an am only a pensioner and cannot Excitement over SuperLight Gold Beach). Each invasion wasofficer and at least two airmen, afford such luxuries, so Ill contin- Hi again, Duncan: Great article followed by ferocious inland bat-then serving with the U2 contin- ue to do my little bit educating peo- by John V. Milewski in NEXUS tles. He was awarded an impres-gent (and who had also befriended ple about their immune system and 11/03 about Superlight and chi, ki sive array of medals that he hasmy wife and me), that I should their blood, and how to beat the and o r g o n e, which have been never worn.move to north Queensland as soon coming plagues. And believe me known for millennia but are only After World War Two, ex-as possible so as not to be affected when I say theyve got some beau- just beginning to come to the atten- servicemen whod experiencedby the coming sprays in the next ties on the way—even bigger than tion of modern physicists via the continuous front-line action for thefew years—sprays to deliberately SARS! field of quantum physics. full six years generally wantedheat up our atmosphere to aid with Name withheld, Australia While SETI continues to waste nothing more to do with militarism.drought-producing climate change time and funds on attempting to Joining veterans associationsover central and eastern Australia AIDS Nutritional Treatment contact interstellar life using stan- would have been unthinkable.and parts beyond—and our gov- Dear Editor: I thought you dard radio waves, others like John The mass medias obsession withernment of the day knew all about might be interested in what has are exploring the real medium by stereotyping all war veterans asit! happened recently with the nutri- which mankind will one day open keen regimental patriotic "Why north Queensland?" I tional treatment for AIDS. communication with the rest of the association members discriminatesasked them, and the reply was that Since we were last in contact, universe. Not only that, but they and excludes many ex-servicethere were more American military there have been two small trials are exploring the very force which people, similar to my father (now4 • NEXUS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004
  5. 5. ... more Letters to the Editor NB: Please keep letters to approx. 150 to 250 words in length. Ed.aged eighty-five), who have no Aggressively interrupting, he It would be rejected by orthodoxinterest in being part of a group or advised I read a chapter in his pre- ozlit/pdf/fed0014.pdf—a real find, medicine (the drug pushers).becoming regimental vious book devoted to Dr Hassan. saving us $370 each and being Regards,exhibitionists. Persisting, I asked, "What do reproduceable and easily searched. John E. Longbottom, DC Due to this narrow view, I you know of Dr Hassans report in So when people ask "How much (Retired), Australia,believe a lot of real issues are over-Excavations at Giza? He discov- is it to join UPMART?", I say, such as how the chil- ered an underground system of "Whatever it takes to change the [Dear John: I have an item indren of veterans who suffered colonnaded tunnels connecting a present system". Global News which may shed moresevere shell-shock appear to be complex of facilities from Giza to Although many join just for the light on the subject. Ed.]affected. It is as relevant today, C a i r o . This was reported in savings on rego, drivers licence,with the Iraq war, as with World English newspapers." I had his tolls, GST, etc., there are plenty Instant Wireless TransmissionWar Two. Studies have been con- attention then. who are ready to go to court to Dear Editor: In his fascinatingducted in The Netherlands and With a poker-faced look of fight for their rights. At the veryAustralia regarding this subject. blank credulity, Hawass replied, "I least, members learn their common articles, Rochus Boerner writes in "Suppressed Discoveries in There is also a fair amount of dont know anything about these law and constitutional rights.evidence, from survivors such as reports. Send me an email!" In solidarity, Physics—Part 2" [11/03]: "It mustmy father, that unfit men were Out of character (re challenges Sully/Noah, NSW, Australia, be understood that if the existencedeliberately kept in the front line tofrom revisionist adversaries), Zahi of instantaneous signals were con-hasten their demise to enable the did not disparage or angrily deny firmed, this would instantly invali- date relativity..."government to save on post-war discoveries attributed to Dr Hassan. Flu Vaccine Dangerswelfare costs. Sadly, these issues Given that Hawass had just shown Dear Sir or Madam: The phar- It undoubtedly is the result of theremain hidden in UK history, but numerous slides of himself person- maceutical companies have now absolute silence of the mass medialess so overseas. ally descending ancient shafts all manufactured a contagious disease. that Boerner does not know that Please check our website on over Egypt, reaching as far down As a self-employed health prac- this is exactly what has happened for as 300 feet, I must concur that titioner, I have read your articles on already.further details. Bushbys research does beg the the pharmaceutical and "illth" On 27 October 2001, in Bad Keep up the good work. question re both Zahis actual industry with great interest. Tölz (southern Germany) under Chris Powis, PO Box 147, knowledge and his authority for Chiropractors and other alterna- supervision of several scientistsWaltham Cross, Hertfordshire, "preserving and protecting Egypts tive health practitioners are well with Dr Hartmut Müller headingEN7 6HA, UK ancient past". aware of the pressure brought to the whole show, a telephone com- But, protecting it from whom or bear on society to reject us. munication between Bad Tölz andMysteries under Giza Plateau what—revisionist apocalypse? Before the turn of this new cen- St Petersburg based on gravitation FYI NEXUS: I picked up a Sincerely, tury, each winter there were per- waves was established. This is tun-newsstand copy of NEXUS on R. A. Koppang, Los Angeles, haps a half a dozen different ing in on a standing wave. There5/5/04, specifically for the California, USA patients who tested positive to was no electrosmog and no time"Ancient Cities Under the Sands of influenza. involved, and the communicationGiza" article [11/03]. Two weeks Our Common Law Rights During the winters of 2001 and lasted for more than a minutepassed. Dear Duncan: Thanks for the 2002, very few patients reacted (raum&zeit, no. 114, Nov–Dec Fortuitously, on 15 May 2004, article on common law and how it positive to the influenza test, even 2001).Supreme Council of Egyptian can empower us in these times of though they had positive symp- On 18 December 2003, the sameAntiquities Secretary-General Zahi loss of rights from the global gov- toms. About five patients reacted procedure was followed by theHawass himself came to town! ernment cabal. positive to the influenza vaccina- TIM research laboratory at DonauSynchronistically, Hawass availed As a member of UPMART with tion test—patients who had University, Krems (Austria), wherehimself for me to inquire directly alternative registration plates, we in received this vaccination as a communication during 40 min-about Tony Bushbys claim. New South Wales are now taking required by their employer, e.g., utes was established (16 code bits No respectable archaeocryptolo- the RTA to court to have our sys- nurses, or perhaps at the persuasion per second) without the use of agist would take Bushbys evidence tem made legal as in Victoria. This of their physician, particularly if cable or transmitter ( Raum undat face value, would he? Bushbys involves meetings amongst mem- they were an "older person". Zeit, no. 128, March–April 2004).case is impressive, but most credi- bers supporting each other in deal- During the same period, about Developments are going onbly verifiable is evidence attributed ing with police, writing legal 25 patients reacted positive to the apace, and the press stonewallsto Zahi Hawasss predecessor, Dr notices and holding practice court "flu vaccination" who had not been them. The finding is at least asSelim Hassan. So, I went right sessions, and also supporting the vaccinated. These patients had important as that of Marconi.down, tactfully asking Zahi face to national movement in different ref- been in contact with someone else Perhaps it would be a good idea toface about it. erendums on GST, petrol, legal who had been vaccinated only days take up contact with Dr Müller. Standing last in Zahis book- representation, food irradiation, etc. before. Sincerely yours,signing queue (one of his new We are also making This was my clinical observation Hans C. Moolenburgh, Haarlem,books, by the way, has three refer- more shareable to members, as in as I retired in April 2003; I have The Netherlandsences to Selim Hassan), I leaned database and chat rooms, etc. not any further clinical observa- [Thanks for the letter, Hans. Weover the table and said, "Dr We have just found the full tions to further this theory. are already in the process of con -Hawass, I wish to inquire about a Quick and Garran A n n o t a t e d Perhaps one of your reporters tacting Dr Müller about his work.specific detail from researches of Australian Constitution ( 1 1 7 0 can find more information on what See his article on Global ScalingDr Selim Hassan". pages) at the webpage are only my clinical observations. Theory in this issue. Ed.]AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 5
  6. 6. MONSANTO HAS A possession of seeds or plants MONOPOLY ON LIFE containing a patented gene, theC ivil society and farmers organisations worldwidereacted with outrage on 21 May burden is on the farmer to prove that s/he is not infringing the companys monopoly the 5–4 decision by the "In Monsantos world, were allCanadian Supreme Court, affirm- criminals unless a court rules oth-ing Monsantos right to prosecute erwise," observes Silvia Ribeirofarmers who are found to have of ETC Groups Mexico office.GM crops growing on their land, "This will come as shockingwhether they wanted them or not. news to indigenous farmers in Monsanto Company accused Mexico, whose maize fields haveSaskatchewan farmers Percy and been contaminated with DNALouise Schmeiser of violating the from genetically modified plants,companys patent on genetically and to farmers everywhere whomodified canola (oilseed rape). are fighting to prevent geneticallyPercy and Louise did not want modified organisms from tres-Monsantos GM canola seeds that passing in their fields," saidinvaded their property, and they Ribeiro.did not try to benefit from the Monsantos newspaper ads inherbicide-tolerant trait in the GM Chiapas, Mexico, are alreadyseed (that is, they didnt spray warning peasants that if they areRoundup weedkiller), but still Monsanto extend to anything its genes get into, found using GM seed illegally, they riskprosecuted them for patent infringement whether plant, animal or human," said Pat fines and even prison.and demanded a portion of their income. Mooney, Executive Director of ETC "No doubt Monsanto will say this is aThe Schmeisers waged a courageous, Group, one of the interveners in the case. victory for their stockholders, but itsseven-year battle against Monsanto that The Canadian Court goes even further victory will be shortlived," said Patwent all the way to the Supreme Court. than notoriously monopoly-friendly US Mooney. "This ruling will unite farmers The Supreme Courts decision effectively patent law because it finds that a gene and others opposed to corporate control ofnullifies the Courts 2002 decision that patent extends to any higher organism that food and life, and galvanize civil society tohigher life-forms, including plants, are not contains the patented gene. "Under this take the issue out of the courts and back topatentable subject matter. According to the ruling, spreading GM pollution appears to politicians," said Mooney.21 May decision, a patent on a gene or cell be recognized as a viable corporate owner- (Source: ETC Group news release, 21 Maycan be infringed by a farmers use of a plant ship strategy," said Mooney. 2004, seed into which the patented material has Monsantos GM seed technologybeen incorporated. accounted for over 90% of the global area NEW STUN WEAPONS TO "Monsanto has won an inflatable patent planted with GM seeds last year. The TARGET CROWDStoday. They can now say that their rights Courts ruling means that if a farmer is in W eapons that can incapacitate crowds of people by sweeping a lightning- like beam of electricity across them are being readied for sale to military and police forces in the USA and Europe. At present, commercial stun guns target one person at a time, work only at close quarters and have no effect on vehicles. The new breed of non-lethal weapons can be used on many people at once and oper- ate over far greater distances. But the advent of wireless stun weapons has horrified human rights groups, who are appalled by the fact that no independent safety tests have been carried out, and con- cerned by their potential for indiscriminate use. Robin Coupland of the Red Cross says they risk becoming a new instrument of torture, and Brian Wood of Amnesty International says the long-range stun guns could "inflict pain and other suffering on innocent bystanders". (Source: New Scientist, 19 June 2004)6 • NEXUS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004
  7. 7. ... GL BAL NEWS ... INDIAS GLOBAL TAKEOVER three hours television a day. Urine But now a team from Geomar, an earthA quiet metamorphosis is taking place in Asia as Indian companies buy up theirrivals abroad. Last year, Indian firms took samples taken at the beginning and end of the experiment showed a significant rise in melatonin levels, particularly among the sciences institute at Kiel University in Germany, has come up with a completely new type of geological catastrophe toover more than 75 international compa- younger children, by the end of the explain the death of the dinosaurs as wellnies. It started with acquisitions in the television-less week. As well as blacking as three previous mass extinctions. If theyinformation technology and related ser- out the video screens, parents were asked are right, the culprit was neither a mete-vices sector, but now it has spread far and to reduce the intensity of artificial lighting orite nor a flood basalt, but a colossalwide to cover other industries. in their homes during the experiment. underground explosion called a Verneshot In pharmaceuticals, Wockhardt has Melatonin is a hormone produced by the (named in honour of Jules Verne).bought CP Pharma of the United Kingdom pineal gland, a pea-sized organ just above The Verneshot hypothesis attempts tofor $10.85 million. Tata Tea, part of the the middle of the brain. Exposure to light explain a mystery that haunts the debateTata Group, Indias oldest industrial con- during the day inhibits its production, over why mass extinctions always seem toglomerate, has taken over Tetley of the which normally begins around 9 pm, with coincide with both continental floodUK, the worlds biggest teabag maker, for rising levels of melatonin in the blood basalts and meteorite impacts, when theUS$430 million—becoming the worlds making people feel sleepy. odds of these happening simultaneouslysecond-largest tea company in the process. Scientists are less certain about the role are vanishingly slim. Among the most publicised deals, Tata of the hormone in regulating the onset of In the past 400 million years, there haveMotors bought South Korean company puberty, an issue the Florence researchers been four major mass extinctions.Daewoos truck plant in that country. intend to pursue. In Western societies, the Between 380 and 364 million years ago,Reliance Infocomm, belonging to Indias arrival of puberty has advanced by about a the Frasnian–Fammenian extinction pulseslargest privately held business house, year since the 1950s, when television wiped out 60% of marine life. That wasReliance Group, took over Flag became common. followed by the biggest extinction of all,International, a major telecom network. It is the light from the TV set that is the when 96% of the worlds species disap- A recent report by Goldman Sachs, for supposed problem. Extra exposure to light peared at the end of the Permian, 251 mil-example, predicts that India will be the lowers production of melatonin, says lion years ago. There was another hugethird-biggest economy by 2050—just Roberti Salti of the University of Florence. die-off at the end of the Triassic, 201 mil-behind China and the US, in that order. (Sources: Independent, 27 June 2004; New lion years ago. And finally, 66 million In the UK alone, Indian firms have Scientist, vol. 183, issue 2454, 3 July 2004) years ago, the dinosaurs and numerousabout 440 investments/joint ventures, with other groups met their end at theIndia being the eighth-largest investor. VERNESHOT HYPOTHESIS MAY Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) boundary.Last year, the top 92 Indian-American- EXPLAIN IMPACT CRATERS Each of these events is associated withowned companies in the US generatedbusiness of $2.2 billion and provided full-time employment to about 19,000 in 2002. T he argument over what killed the dinosaurs has raged for 25 years and polarised into two opposing camps: those both a meteorite impact and a continental flood basalt. Yet even one such double whammy is highly unlikely, so could itThere are 1,441 Indian companies operat- who support a meteorite impact; and those really have happened four times ?ing in Singapore; of these, more than 450 who favour a prolonged bout of mega- Meteorite impacts large enough to trigger aare technology enterprises. volcanism—a "continental flood basalt". mass extinction are believed to occur less(Source: Asia Times Online, 22 June 2004, TV SCREEN LIGHT DEPRESSES SLEEP HORMONE IN CHILDRENE xposure to television can influence melatonin levels in children and possi-bly contribute to the premature onset ofpuberty, according to a study by scientistsfrom the University of Florence in Italy. The study found a 30% increase in lev-els of the sleep-regulating hormone in chil-dren who had abstained from watchingtelevision for a week. The findings are based on a study of 74children from the Tuscan town ofCavriglia who volunteered to foregotelevision, video games and computers fora week last month [May] in the interests ofscience. Aged between six and 12, thechildren normally watched an average ofAUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 7
  8. 8. ... GL BAL NEWS ...than once every 100 million years. MEDICAL IMPLANTS POWERED vaccines that were either identical orContinental flood basalts, meanwhile, hap- BY BODY HEAT slightly different to a strain of flu infectingpen roughly once every 30 to 50 millionyears and last for about a million years. Geomar team leader Jason Phipps A company in New York state is plan- ning to provide patients with an implantable power source that recharges ponies. The ponies given mismatched vaccine were more likely to become infected and to excrete live flu virus, andMorgan said that "the odds of a meteorite the battery of their medical implant (i.e., also stayed infectious longer than poniesimpact occurring at the same time as a con- pacemakers, defibrillators) using electricity with a well-matched vaccine.tinental flood basalt within the last 400 mil- generated by the patients own body heat. "The longer infectious period allows thelion years is around one in eight". But the By continuously recharging the batteries, virus more replication cycles and a greaterprobability of four of these coincidences it saves the patient from frequent surgery. chance to evolve," says co-author Jameshappening within the last 400 million years In some low power devices, it could even Wood. And when the researchers put theiris one in 3,500. replace the batteries altogether, making results into an epidemic model, they found A Verneshot event could trigger a such operations unnecessary. the risk of large outbreaks after using amagnitude 11 earthquake and eject as much The "biothermal battery", under develop- mismatched vaccine to be up to 1,000as 20 gigatonnes of rock into a "super- ment by Biophan Technologies of West times higher than after a well-matched vac-stratospheric" trajectory before crashing Henrietta, will generate electricity using cination (Proceedings of the Royal Societyback to earth, in some cases causing impact arrays of thousands of thermoelectric gen- B, DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2004.2766).craters. erators built into an implantable chip. This kind of flawed vaccination may(Source: New Scientist, 8 May 2004) These generators exploit the well-known have allowed flu mutants to evolve in thermocouple effect, in which a small volt- vaccinated poultry in Mexico (N e w DNA STUDY SHOWS HUMANS age is generated when two of the junctions Scientist, 27 March 2004). The work also AND CHIMPS NOT SO SIMILAR between two dissimilar materials are kept raises further concerns about widespreadH umans and their closest relatives, chimpanzees, may be more differentthan geneticists have realised. A compari- at different temperatures. Todays pacemaker batteries last more than a decade before they need replacing. poultry vaccination in China. A virulent new bird flu devastated birds across East Asia this year and also killed 22 people.son of the chimpanzees chromosome 22 Biophan says the device it is aiming for (Source: New Scientist, 19 June 2004)with its human counterpart, chromosome will be able extend this to three decades by21, shows that just 1.44% of the chromo- continuously trickle-charging pacemaker BACTERIAL INTEGRATEDsomes 33.3 million DNA bases are differ- batteries. It might even be able to power CIRCUITS CAN SENSE TOXINSent. The study also revealed nearly 68,000insertions or deletions of DNA, most ofwhich were only a few bases long. some low-power pacemakers directly. (Source: New Scientist, 12 June 2004) U sing silicon chips to collect signals from specially altered bacteria, NASA-supported researchers at the But because each gene contains hundreds CONTAGIOUS FLU VACCINES? University of Tennessee have created aor thousands of bases, even these differ-ences are enough to alter more than 80% ofthe proteins produced by those genes, says T he dangers of vaccinating against flu if the vaccine is not a perfect match for the disease strain have been highlighted by device that can detect almost anything. Microbiologist Gary Sayler and colleagues have already used these devices, known asthe International Chimpanzee Chromosome a horse study. BBICs, or Bioluminescent Bioreporter22 Consortium (Nature 429:382). Andrew Parks team at the Animal Integrated Circuits, to track pollution.(Source: New Scientist, 29 May 2004) Health Trust near Newmarket, UK, tested NASA is interested in sensing contami- nants because spaceships are tightly sealed. Unseen fumes from scientific experiments or toxins produced by moulds and other biofilms can accumulate and pose a hazard to astronauts. BBICs can be crafted to sense almost anything: ammonia, cadmi- um, chromate, cobalt, copper, lead, mer- cury, PCBs, proteins, ultrasound, ultravio- let radiation, zinc—the list goes on and on. Microbes thrive in a wide range of envi- ronments, so its possible to design BBICs that can survive in extreme or highly conta- minated surroundings. "They can actually do their job sitting in things such as jet fuel/water mixtures," marvels Sayler. BBICs are useful on Earth, too. They can detect formaldehyde emitted by pressed wood furniture and moulds often implicated in sick building syndrome. "If this device works as planned, it could "The future isnt what it used to be." turn out to be a very inexpensive kind of8 • NEXUS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004
  9. 9. ... GL BAL NEWS ...monitoring system," says Sayler. FROM BODY CLOCKS TO CHRONOTHERAPEUTICS Advanced BBICs could serve as bioter-rorism monitors, as a means to detect DNAradiation damage in astronauts, or as a C hronobiology, as the study of body clocks is known, has already produced some curiosities. If you want to bet on when you might give birth naturally, go for between 4 am and 6 am. If you have osteoarthritis, it will hit you worst in the earlydiagnostic tool for doctors. evening. Your risk of an asthma attack is 300 times higher between 2 am and 6 am.(Source: NASA Headlines, 10 June 2004, Each disease, it seems, strikes hardest at a time of its own choosing. It took decades of investigation for scientists to tease out the location of the bodys10jun_bbics.htm) master clock. Eventually, in mammals at least, it was narrowed down to a clump of just 20,000 cells in a part of the brain called the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN), a part of the A CLOSE CALL WITH ASTEROID hypothalamus at the base of the brain. Within the cells, scientists found a series of TOUTATIS IN SEPTEMBER 2004? genes that switched on, off and back on again over a 24-hour period. This cycle has twoO n 29 September, a three-mile-long asteroid will make the closest predict-ed approach of any asteroid or comet to knock-on effects: firstly, to send electrical pulses into the nervous system; and secondly, to produce squirts of hormones. Both spread through the body like the chime of a clock.visit Earth in the next 30 years, say scien- Scientists have since discovered that while the SCN beats out a standard time for thetists at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory body, each of our organs uses the signal to set its own individual clock, much as coun-Near-Earth Orbiting Programme Office. tries set their time by GMT. Many organs, such as the liver and kidneys, are typicallyThey predict the asteroid will come within on New York time—five hours behind our master body clock.963,000 miles of Earth—a very near miss. Many working at the forefront of chronobiology believe that medicine has missed a Asteroid 4179 Toutatis was named after trick by failing to take time variations into account. "Look at how we educate doctorsa Celtic/Gallic god, and is one of the and scientists. Theyre taught that the body is in a constant state over 24 hours, not thatlargest known Potentially Hazardous you get these cycles," says Michael Smolensky, an expert in body clocks at theAsteroids (PHAs) that approaches our University of Texas at Houston.planet on a Near Earth Orbit (NEO). The upshot is that many in the medical profession, though aware that physiology Close encounters with Venus, Earth, changes with time, do not appreciate the implications.Mars and Jupiter constantly alter the shape Many experts in the field are convinced that if doctors and pharmaceutical companiesof the asteroids path as it loops through the appreciated how diseases vary with time, they could significantly improve their treat-solar system every 3.98 years. On 31 ments. Studies have already shown that, in the case of certain diseases, taking drugs atOctober 2000, the asteroid passed less than different times has a marked influence on how effective they are.29 lunar distances from Earth. The 29 The revelation that drugs work better at certain times has raised deep concerns amongSeptember 2004 fly-past will come within some in the scientific community who believe that it undermines how common chemicalfour lunar distances of the Earth. tests are performed. Before a drug gets anywhere near a human, it is tested on animals, usually rodents. T o u t a t i s also has one of the strangest And your typical lab mouse is nocturnal. "It means weve been testing chemicals, androtations yet observed in the solar system. not just drugs, on animals whose physiology is 12 hours out of synch with our own,"Instead of spinning about a single axis, as says Foster. "Does this mean we need to redo all of our toxicity testing? Its not out ofdo the planets and the vast majority of the question."asteroids, it "tumbles" somewhat like a Foster believes that the pharmaceutical industry could benefit from investigating howrugby football when it bounces. time affects the workings of its drugs. Doing so could not only reveal the best time to At three miles long, it would present a take a drug, but also when not to take it. "Say you test a new anticancer drug and itterrible danger if it were to collide with the causes appalling side-effects and kills lots of animals. You decide you cant use thatEarth, although scientists at NASA say this drug, and move on to another one," Foster says. "But if that drug had been tested atis unlikely. It is travelling at a speed of another time, say 12 hours later, it may have caused very few side-effects. So it couldabout 20 miles per second, and if it struck well be the case that not only are we giving drugs that cause more damage than neces-an ocean it would unleash a "mega tsunami" sary, but we are missing out on other very valuable drugs because they are nasty at theor giant tidal wave that could reach around time they are tested."the entire globe, inundating millions of Despite emphasising the shortcomings, though, Redfern doesnt rule out chronothera-hectares of land, destroying coastal peutics. "There may well be conditions like cancer, asthma, cardiovascular disease andhabitations and killing perhaps millions of epilepsy where this is worth looking at," he says.people. "Its not like 10 years ago, when this was considered a bit off-the-wall. Its taken a lot If it hit land, it could annihilate an area more seriously now. We know it isnt fantasy."the size of Europe and raise enough dustinto the atmosphere to change the climate Further readingof the planet, causing a mini ice age that • Rhythms of Life, by Russell Foster and Leon Kreitzman, Profile Books, 2004, ISBNwould freeze crops, destroy plant life and 1861972350pre-empt a global famine. • Chronotherapeutics, by Peter Redfern, Pharmaceutical Press, 2003, ISBN 0853694885 An orbit simulation of the close • The Body Clock Guide to Better Health, by Michael Smolensky and Lynne Lamberg,approach of Toutatis is at http://neo.jpl. Owl Books, 2001, ISBN • Chronobiology, by Jay C. Dunlap et al., Sinauer Associates, 2003, ISBN 087893149X(Source: Ian Gurney, 5 February 2004) (Source: by Ian Sample, The Guardian, UK, 1 July 2004)AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 9
  10. 10. 10 • NEXUS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004
  11. 11. The one thing that every Middle Eastern leader, manager and planner who dreams of holding his country together fears now is that there will be a widespread uprising inspired by the perceived victory against Spain after [the bombing in] Madrid and Spains withdrawal from Iraq, that it might prompt much of the Muslim world to start attacking oil facilities everywhere. This is the way they see that has worked, to defeat the West and to avenge their grievances. May God help us all if that happens. As major oilfields Stability must come to Iraq. But how? — Anonymous Middle Eastern participant at the Third Conference of the Association continue to decline for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Berlin, Germany, May 2004 in productivity, as J une 21, 2004, Berlin and Los Angeles — From The Wilderness (FTW) began writ- ing about Peak Oil in the summer of 2002. It was much more difficult then to dis- new infrastructure cuss Peak Oil, what it means or how certain, quick and defiant was to be its arrival. Denial in many minds was so instant and overwhelming that only a trained eye is too expensive to could see its millisecond appearance before encountering the brick wall of a closed mind. build and as global By the spring of 2004, things had changed dramatically. This is both the good news and the bad news. In May 2004, I attended the Third Annual Conference of the oil reserves cannot Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) in Berlin, Germany. Although I have a great many friends in ASPO, I tend to leave these conferences feeling as though meet demand, we Ive had a big meal but am still hungry. Governed as they were by scientific protocols, the 2003 and 2004 conferences seemed to occur in vacuums. With the cool professionalism are on the brink of thats proper to scientific discourse, the conferences marshalled excellent resources of data and analysis while remaining eerily detached from political and economic developments a worldwide in the outside world—detached from 9/11, from violence and intrigue in Iraq, in Saudi Arabia, in West Africa, in Venezuela; detached from bitter conflict and bloodshed, and economic and from economic disintegration. social crisis. That disconnect was nowhere near as obvious in Paris in May 2003 as it was in Berlin a year later. From May 24, 2004, as people arrived for the conference, through to the final day on May 26, the hottest conversations were as much about what was going on in the headlines as about what was being discussed inside the room. The two didnt converge nearly enough. Peak Oil, Berlin, was almost twice as large as Paris had been. Many of the 250-plus attendees arrived on both mornings with papers under their arms containing stories about oil shortages and economic issues connected thereto. They tended to meet outside for drinks or meals, asking: "Have you seen the cover of the June 2004 National Geographic? Its Peak Oil!"; "Did you see the International Herald Tribune today on global production and supply?"; "Do you think the Saudis really can increase by Michael C. Ruppert production, or are they bluffing?"; "Did you see where Shell has downgraded its reserves, © June 2004 again!?"; "Did you notice that someone finally attacked a Saudi oil facility? Now the From The Wilderness Publications Saudis wont have to prove that they can increase production, either to their people or the All rights reserved markets. Its the perfect excuse." PO Box 6061-350 This had been no overnight development. For almost the entire year between the Paris Sherman Oaks, CA 91413, USA and Berlin conferences, the icons of the mainstream press—the ones known and employed Telephone: +1 (818) 788 8791 to mould public and business perception—had been acknowledging Peak Oils reality, Email: sometimes reluctantly, sometimes less than directly, but also sometimes very boldly. Website: CNN, the BBC, the New York Times, the Economist—dozens of media giants had begun to respond, like a giant ship turning slowly in the water. The ship had clearly changed course, but was it enough? Was it in time?AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 11
  12. 12. In Berlin: Show versus Substance With bottle-brush drilling, when the water table hits the Present in Berlin for the ASPO conference on May 25 and 26 horizontal shaft, often without warning, the whole field iswere some newcomers, senior representatives from British virtually dead and production immediately drops off to almostPetroleum, ExxonMobil and the International Energy Agency nothing. As several at the conference noted, this is exactly what(IEA). They came as nobles called to a commoners court: polite, has already happened in Oman, Syria and Yemen.courteous, but waving their flags just the same, unperturbed by As William Kennedy, a UK observer at the conference, notedthe growing mess around them. If nothing else, their presence afterwards: "For the record, Ghawars ultimate recoverableserved as a reminder that Peak Oil was squarely on the table. reserves in 1975 were estimated at 60 billion barrels—byEven from their denials came startling revelations. ExxonMobil, Texaco and Chevron. It had produced 55 billion As the press reports describing a disintegrating world outside barrels up to the end of 2003 and is still producing at 1.8 billionrolled on, the debate inside still seemed removed from it all. It per annum. That shows you how close it might be to the end.felt strange to discuss Peak Oil in a purely data-driven way, while When Ghawar dies, the world is officially in decline."knowing how utterly it will shatter our growth-driven industrial No one, not even from the major oil companies or the economiccivilisation. camp, rose to defend Saudi Arabias claim that it could increase The big three of ASPO—Colin Campbell, Kjell Aleklett and production rapidly.Jean Laherrère—accompanied by the de facto star of the event, The BBCs Adam Porter ("Is The Worlds Oil Running Outinvestment banker Matthew Simmons, had their work cut out for Fast?", BBC News, June 7, 2004) nailed the IEAs Chiefthem; not with the audience but with those who had come to deny. Economist, Faith Birol, over his confident assertion that there is Natural gas issues facing Europe took up most of the first day. still plenty of oil:Two things quickly became clear on that account. Firstly, almost "In public, Mr Birol denied that supply would not be able toall of Europe, soon even perhaps Ireland, is going to become meet rising demand, especially from the buoyant economies in thedependent upon Russian natural gas to stay warm (Britain has just USA, China and India.become a net gas importer in the face of North Sea decline). "But after his speech, he seemed to change his tune.Secondly, Russia has much less natural gas than the economists "For the time being, there is no spare capacity. But we expectand bookkeepers have predicted. demand to increase by the fourth quarter Simmons asked rhetorically why [of the year] by 3 million barrels aanyone would stake their future on day.four large Russian fields that have "If Saudi does not increase "He pinned his hopes for an increasebeen shown to be in permanent in production squarely on troubleddecline. It was a good question, espe- supply by three million barrels Saudi Arabia.cially in light of the fact that a day by the end of the year, "If Saudi does not increase supplyLaherrère, with his renowned calcula- by three million barrels a day by thetions, concluded that natural gas we will can I say end of the year, we will candemand in Europe would grow at 6.4% will be very difficult. I say will be very difficult. Weper year, that the global natural gas will have difficult times. They mustcliff would hit by approximately 2030, We will have difficult times." invest.and that by 2050 there would be zero "But even Mr Birol admitted thatreserves left. He calmly announced Saudi production was about flat.that, as far as Russian gas reserves are Three million extra barrels a dayconcerned, there is a 50% difference between the technical data would mean a huge 30% leap in output in just a few months.on Russian gas and what he called the "political" data. Simmons "When BBC News Online followed up by asking if this giantpointed out that North America hit its natural gas peak in 1973 increase in production was actually possible rather than simply aand is now falling off the production cliff. desire, he refused to answer. You are from the press? This is not Presentations exploring liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to for you. This is not for the press."the USA concluded what FTW already knew: the cost is tooexpensive, the lead-time too long, and the capital investment too Mistakes of the Energy Industrygreat to make much of a difference here. In his presentation, Matthew Simmons, CEO of Simmons and Everybody, even the giant German power companies like Co. International, the worlds largest investment bank, reeled off aRWE, talked about coal. Nuclear, at least for some, was also an litany of "mistakes" made by the energy industry over decades.option but there were no other viable near-term solutions He described some of these mistakes as: demand was neverpresented. Token representatives of hydrogen and alternative understood properly; supply was merely aspiration (not actualenergies made presentations—but for those who had looked at reality); decline curves became waterfalls; we didnt have enoughhard numbers, these were more show than substance. rigs (infrastructure); there was little fuel substitution; there were few technology gains.Saudi Arabia: The Hot Topic Simmons described these mistakes as cascading and Saudi Arabias promise to increase production to meet US and compounding over time, and suggested that the underlying causeworld economic needs was the hot topic. Much discussion and of all of them was the inherent assumption pushed by the financialhard data were devoted to the fact that Ghawar—the largest field markets that growth could possibly be infinite—when nothing elsein the world—is, along with all of Saudi Arabias other large in the physical universe is; when no organism or species has everfields, old and tired. In recent years, both water injection and so- avoided the cycle of growth, maturity and decline that governs thecalled "bottle-brush" drilling have been employed to maintain natural world.production, and both of these techniques tend to accelerate decline Colin Campbell, the "godfather" of the Peak Oil movement, withand damage the reservoirs. They are desperate measures. a bit of pique divided the conference presenters into three camps:12 • NEXUS AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004
  13. 13. the Surveyors, who report hard data and not abstract modelling; the FTW readers: West Africa, Middle East and South America. NotEconomists, who deny reality and assert that money produces one of those well-explored regions has anything near the two orenergy and not the other way around; and the Pretenders, "who three Ghawar fields we need to find immediately to avert a crisis.know full-well what the situation is but pretend otherwise for Assuming sufficient oil were found, how much money wouldshort-term political objectives". In the last camp he places Faith be needed to develop it and bring it to market? ExxonMobilsBirol of the IEA, supposedly the worlds energy watchdog. spokesman indicated that a global annual investment of US$530 Even Birol made his own startling revelations on the second day billion would be required. The IEAs Faith Birol stated that $16when he confirmed that another new trend, new since Paris, had trillion would have to be invested before 2030 to develop oil andbecome dominant. Many presenters from German and European gas reserves that, even he admitted, no one is sure exist.industry began listing a new priority for future energy planningthat I had not heard before. They all emphasised "energy security" Ali Samsam Bakhtiari: A Candid Assessmentas the top concern, or one of their most important concerns, for the Another fixture at ASPO conferences is Ali Samsam Bakhtiari,future. I checked my notes from Paris; I hadnt recorded its being Vice President of the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC). Amentioned once. That sounded military to suave and genial Persian on whose tribalme, at least in terms of building geostrategic land the first oil well in the Middle East wasalliances which always have military options drilled, Bakhtiari was doggedly followed byincluded. When confronted directly on that journalists and documentarians looking forpoint, the presenters retreated to assertions relevant quotations. Frequently in thethat what they really want are treaties and "The crisis is very, very company of Simmons, he remained availableeconomic agreements. "Well," I thought, throughout the conference. Bakhtiari is"what enforces those things?" near. World War III firmly in the camp of the Surveyors, warning Birol also hit hard on this point. Then he has started. It has about Peak Oil and convinced of itsengaged in a kind of irrational presentation certainty. It was he who, in Paris, droppedin which he put forth four points. The first already affected every the first hints to me and others that Sauditwo were telling. Firstly, he said the IEA is single citizen of the Arabia may have peaked in May 2003. Iabsolutely certain that there is enough ener- have come to call him "the Prophet Ali"—agy to guarantee economic growth until 2025. Middle East. Soon it label which makes him quickly blush andIn his next point, he said that (in light ofShells downward revisions and pend- will spill over to affect wave his hands in embarrassment. Like others from the region attendinging revisions from other major oil com- every single citizen of the conference, Bakhtiari brought newpanies) there is sufficient uncertaintyabout the true nature of stated world the world." warnings. He cited the data about sudden and unexpected declines as thereserves that a new "transparent" result of bottle-brush drilling in thereserve accounting system should be – Ali Samsam Bakhtiari region, and expressed his strong doubtsestablished to provide the needed trust Vice President that Saudi Arabia could increasefor the financial markets. In other National Iranian Oil Company production under any circumstances.words, his first point is meaningless. While a bit more reticent to express his Colin Campbell, seated on the panel fears about growing instability withinwith Birol, quipped, "If there were the region, he was more candid in histransparency, it would be clear that we assessment of the global energy picture.are at peak now and everything might Bakhtiari told the conference: "Thefall apart". Again, I thought of the crisis is very, very near. World Warheadlines and war and said to myself, III has started. It has already affected"Um, it already is". every single citizen of the Middle East. Soon it will spill over to British Petroleum and ExxonMobil also stepped through the affect every single citizen of the world. Syrias oil production islooking glass. After presenting a series of slides which almost in terminal decline. Yemen is following. Major Middle Easteveryone in the audience was quite capable of reading, BP producers, including Saudi Arabia, will peak soon or have alreadyspokesman Francis Harper, addressing the issue of "reserve peaked."growth", refused to answer two direct questions about how his Off the stage, he was even more direct. "The present war can-charts had just absolutely confirmed an imminent peak and not be confined to the Middle East. It will soon spill over to thedecline. He just didnt answer. He did say that "Reserve esti- rest of the world. The final implications will upset the globalmates are uncertain and can vary widely throughout field life". applecart." Later, ASPO founder Campbell speculated that BP is perhapsthe worst book-cooker of all the majors when it comes to reserves, Rimini and Uppsala Protocols: Ethical Managementand that there may be some large surprises coming as increasing Colin Campbell has begun the search, from a true expertspressure is put on the majors to produce transparent and verifiable viewpoint, for immediate, if admittedly incomplete, solutions. Incalculations. his final presentation, he submitted a draft of a plan to manage ExxonMobils G. Jeffrey Johnson, while saying that supply is decline ethically. Called the Uppsala Protocol (formerly thesufficient to satisfy growth until 2020, also admitted that current Rimini Protocol; see, Campbells simpledecline is at 4–6% per year. Economic growth is not possible proposal approaches Peak Oil from the perspective ofwithout increased energy production. When asked by me where humanitarian and egalitarian imperatives rather than marketExxonMobil is working feverishly to find new reserves, Johnson forces. Though simple in concept, the two proposals for futurerattled off a list of countries and regions already well familiar to consumption in the Uppsala Protocol may ultimately forceAUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2004 NEXUS • 13