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09 3 Quarter Retail Report

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Commerce / Cushman & Wakefield - Las Vegas Commercial Real Estate Retail 3rd Qtr Market report

Commerce / Cushman & Wakefield - Las Vegas Commercial Real Estate Retail 3rd Qtr Market report

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  • 1. COMMERCE CRG is a regional real estate firm dedicated first and foremost to our clients. With the industry’s premier professionals, and industry leading technology, our mission is to exceed our clients’ expectations through service excellence. C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 2. RETAIL MARKET INDICATORS Change Since Current 3Q09 3Q08 LAS VEGAS RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW Vacancy 12.74% Lease Rates $1.92 NNN Net Absorption * (2.5 million) Construction N/A *The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period, and do not represent a positive or negative value. (e.g., absorption could be negative but still represent a positive trend over a specified period.) RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW AT A GLANCE By end of third quarter, vacancies reached new highs with approximately 6.9 million square feet of available product Vacancy Rates Reached New Highs coming online. This equates to a 12.74% vacancy factor. Above- Overall vacancy rates reached another high during the quarter at 12.74%. This is a 3.25% jump from second quarter 2009 and a 6.74% raise from a year ago. Freestanding average vacancies were noted in the Southwest (19.43%), North product type is showing the highest vacancy rates at 21.92%. Vacancy increases during Las Vegas (16.70%), Nellis (15.40%) submarkets. By product the year were impacted by several store closings due to the current economic conditions. type Strip Centers (21.87%) and Freestanding (21.92%) retail buildings posted the highest vacancies at the end of the quarter Rents Remained Stable as discretionary spending pulled back, further impacting the As Landlords are faced with a “Tenant” market, they are seeing many retailers viability of small business owners. The retailers that are pulling renegotiating for lower rents and asking for more concessions as their leases come through the recession have enjoyed the current vacancy. The up for renewal. Negotiations like these and more up-front incentives help stabilize and even lower the overall average lease rates. Currently, the Las Vegas market is showing old time saying “location, location, location” really means annual averages lease rates at $23.04 per square feet (psf). This is a drop from last something right now to the retailers that can make the move to quarter at $23.64 psf and higher of a drop from a year ago when rates where at $26.16 more premier locations as rental rates are lowered and become psf. more affordable. Challenging Outlook for Las Vegas Continues According to a report in Time magazine the new rage in retail Looking forward, the retail sector is expected to continue to face challenges posed by a troubled employment market, low consumer confidence levels and a still struggling leasing is something called “pop-up shops.” Pop-up stores, or housing market. Vacancy rates are expected to continue upward into the foreseeable temporary retail outlets, are one way for landlords to fill an ever future. The task of identifying tenants who have a need for space in some of the larger growing amount of retail vacancy. According to Mike Kraus, units and filling more than 6.9 million square feet of available product will be difficult in the next year. “pop-ups are an opportunity for both entrepreneurs and big brands to make some money without having to worry about the overhead of a five-year lease.” Pop-ups are not just for mom and pop operations. According to the report Toys “R” Us is looking to replace the former KB Toys, by opening 350 holiday express toy outlets during the holiday season. Other retails that have dabbled in the pop-up concept include American Eagle, Gap, JC Penny, Ann Taylor and Gucci. With long vacancy times Landlords are looking for some part time foot traffic and retailers gain opportunities to create buzz on special products and/ or short term sales during important shopping months. Pricing (Average Asking Rents) Weak consumer spending and troubled employment is forcing many businesses to close and the demand for retail space is shrinking. This activity has lowered the average asking rents around the valley. Average asking rents witness a decline to $1.92 per sf/mo NNN during 3rd quarter 2009, which was slightly below the $1.97 per sf/mo NNN reported in the preceding quarter (Q2 2009) and further below the $2.18 per sf/mo NNN reported one year ago. The amount of product available at year-end represented an all-time high, which will likely contribute to continue softening in retail prices. C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 3. OUTLOOK As the winter months approach the temperatures are not the only thing dropping around the valley. Turbulent debt markets and a slowing LAS VEGAS economy has finally hit the commercial real estate market. According RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW to a Federal Reserve official, “The strong headwinds that are facing financial institutions in the United States will likely continue for some time and struggles for the commercial real estate market are far from over.” Prices of existing commercial properties have declined sharply from their record highs and will likely continue to decline. Market conditions are expected to remain sluggish all throughout 2010 as the Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG economy works it’s way out of the recession. Also effecting a faster Third Quarter 2009 recovery in the retail market come from a combination of all-time low levels of consumer confidence and the highest unemployment numbers that we have seen in 26 years. The current 10.2% (SF) and Vacancy Rate (%) equates to 15.7 million workers that remain Retail: Inventory national unemployment rate jobless. According to the Labor Department “the largest job losses were in construction (down 62,000), manufacturing (down 61,000) 60,000,000 14.0% and retail (down 40,000). Chief economist, Alan Levenson stated that “It’s not surprising to see continuing job losses in the retail sector 12.0% because too many stores were built in response to overzealous consumer spending fueled by borrowing.” Although most economists 55,000,000 report that the recession ended sometime in June, people are still afraid to spend money as unemployment 10.0% going up. keeps 50,000,000 As the Holiday shopping season fast approaches, negative sales forecast are already hitting the news. Last 8.0% at this time retail sales year 45,000,000 fell 3.4% and this year is looking no different as shoppers continue to worry about credit card debt and sky high unemployment rates. 6.0% Intense price wars and early “Black Friday” specials is the approach many retailers are taking to prepare for the Holiday season. With 40,000,000 fewer spending dollars and a consumer mind set of buying only products that they need, Retailers will have to prepare for the holiday 4.0% consumer spending war. 35,000,000 2.0% Looking forward, incremental job growth is anticipated to be limited, with nearly every sector pointing toward continued contraction 30,000,000 0.0% in 2010. Income and spending levels are also likely to remain depressed, as consumers pull pack in the face of uncertainty. These 7 7 7 8 8 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 conditions will force retailers to shift their business models back to the pre-boom era, a change that can be difficult to achieve. That 30 40 10 20 30 40 20 30 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q said, opportunities for those seeking expansion or entrance into the Las Vegas market over the next several years should be attractive from a pricing perspective. Retail: Vacancy (%) and Ave. Lease Rates 25.00% $2.50 $2.22 $1.95 $2.29 $2.19 20.00% $2.09 $2.00 $2.03 $1.62 $1.82 15.00% $1.57 $1.50 $1.45 10.00% $1.00 5.00% $0.50 0.00% $0.00 n st y l in s t t t lis st es as es ll e so ga we Ea l er Ne hw lE lW Va er Ve m rth nd ra ut m ra en s No nt So He Su La nt re Ce Ce G rth No C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 4. Commerce CrG Las Vegas retail market report Q3 2009 inventory vacancy Demand & Supply Pricing No. of existing under Const. Planned Vacancy Net Gross New asking rent (NNN) Bldgs. SF SF SF SF rate absorption Spaced Supply Low high avg. Central east Community Centers 21 3,522,124 - - 459,114 13.04% (446,114) 5,000 - $0.75 $3.50 $1.66 Freestanding 8 257,490 - - 46,016 17.87% (25,050) 5,175 - $0.99 $2.10 $1.25 Neighborhood Centers 6 399,098 - - 122,022 30.57% (101,902) 4,500 - $0.75 $4.00 $2.59 anchorless Strip 34 1,320,265 - - 152,271 11.53% (21,024) 83,450 - $0.65 $4.00 $1.31 total 69 5,498,977 - - 779,423 14.17% (594,090) 98,125 - $0.65 $4.00 $1.62 Central west Community Centers 33 5,430,029 - - 595,413 10.97% (18,734) 321,268 - $0.55 $3.23 $1.57 Freestanding 2 90,320 - - 4,950 5.48% (3,750) - - $0.99 $1.60 $1.30 Neighborhood Centers 19 1,418,919 - - 129,745 9.14% (71,400) 26,793 - $0.90 $3.00 $1.55 anchorless Strip 42 1,516,814 - - 206,224 13.60% (140,612) 3,117 - $0.50 $2.50 $1.40 total 96 8,456,082 - - 936,332 11.07% (234,496) 351,178 - $0.50 $3.23 $1.45 east Community Centers 18 2,884,687 - - 174,879 6.06% 418,867 453,325 47,000 $0.95 $4.50 $1.74 Freestanding 3 135,336 - - 51,910 38.36% (47,748) - - $1.45 $3.25 $2.43 Neighborhood Centers 3 476,680 - - 42,898 9.00% (30,234) - - $1.50 $3.35 $2.21 anchorless Strip 14 488,185 - - 113,501 23.25% (40,237) 15,553 - $0.85 $2.25 $1.40 total 38 3,984,888 - - 383,188 9.62% 300,648 468,878 47,000 $0.85 $4.50 $1.95 Green valley Community Centers 33 6,422,389 - - 485,648 7.56% (113,807) 86,492 - $0.90 $4.00 $2.04 Freestanding 4 189,929 - - 55,446 29.19% (27,275) 17,086 - $0.99 $1.85 $1.61 Neighborhood Centers 20 2,019,865 - - 312,719 15.48% (85,915) 107,805 276,000 $1.00 $3.50 $1.87 anchorless Strip 21 740,566 - - 181,335 24.49% (24,879) 55,102 24,336 $0.40 $4.00 $1.77 total 78 9,372,749 - - 1,035,148 11.04% (251,876) 266,485 300,336 $0.40 $4.00 $1.82 Henderson Community Centers 9 1,713,893 - - 211,208 12.32% (146,142) 6,725 32,175 $1.00 $4.00 $2.07 Freestanding 3 115,059 - - - 0.00% - - - Neighborhood Centers 3 295,539 - - 7,400 2.50% (4,100) - - $1.75 $2.25 $2.06 anchorless Strip 3 191,977 - - 33,452 17.43% 38,569 50,921 40,401 $0.75 $3.50 $2.53 total 18 2,316,468 - - 252,060 10.88% (111,673) 57,646 72,576 $0.75 $4.00 $2.22 Nellis Community Centers 8 1,235,823 - - 66,588 5.39% 41,278 54,341 - $0.85 $2.55 $1.53 Freestanding 3 170,340 - - 38,535 22.62% (16,135) 20,000 - $0.83 $2.12 $1.35 Neighborhood Centers 11 809,449 - - 213,330 26.35% (195,034) 1,666 - $0.75 $3.75 $1.94 anchorless Strip 15 458,204 - - 93,288 20.36% (10,392) 27,841 - $0.50 $3.50 $1.46 total 37 2,673,816 - - 411,741 15.40% (180,283) 103,848 - $0.50 $3.75 $1.57 North las vegas Community Centers 24 4,817,384 - - 726,631 15.08% (461,295) 27,125 999,812 $0.99 $4.00 $2.31 Freestanding 1 22,200 - - 22,200 100.00% (9,800) - - $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 Neighborhood Centers 18 1,566,598 - - 238,989 15.26% (40,458) 98,308 - $0.99 $5.00 $2.00 anchorless Strip 10 381,727 - - 145,810 38.20% (126,600) 7,954 - $0.49 $3.50 $1.82 total 53 6,787,909 - - 1,133,630 16.70% (638,153) 133,387 999,812 $0.49 $5.00 $2.03 Northwest Community Centers 18 3,580,766 - - 284,993 7.96% (107,931) 27,000 - $0.80 $3.75 $2.22 Freestanding - - - - - #diV/0! - - - Neighborhood Centers 12 792,754 - - 195,269 24.63% (133,665) 24,337 152,380 $0.99 $4.00 $2.25 anchorless Strip 5 162,572 - - 16,461 10.13% (13,061) 1,000 - $1.00 $3.25 $2.39 total 35 4,536,092 - - 496,723 10.95% (254,657) 52,337 152,380 $0.80 $4.00 $2.29 Southwest Community Centers 18 3,947,674 - - 605,583 15.34% (311,448) 5,142 - $1.00 $4.00 $2.27 Freestanding 1 25,300 - - 1,500 5.93% (1,500) - - $2.25 $2.25 $2.25 Neighborhood Centers 11 1,046,156 - - 93,322 8.92% 11,154 48,607 159,300 $1.25 $3.25 $2.26 anchorless Strip 44 1,631,441 - - 590,877 36.22% (311,750) 64,414 - $0.99 $5.00 $1.96 total 74 6,650,571 - - 1,291,282 19.42% (613,544) 118,163 159,300 $0.99 $5.00 $2.19 Summerlin Community Centers 17 3,253,457 - - 126,489 3.89% 33,105 75,223 - $0.75 $5.00 $2.55 Freestanding - - - - - 0.00% - - - Neighborhood Centers 9 602,605 - - 40,507 6.72% (19,173) 4,613 - $0.40 $3.25 $2.15 anchorless Strip 12 384,521 - - 57,934 15.07% (32,758) 13,594 - $1.00 $3.25 $1.57 total 38 4,240,583 - - 224,930 5.30% (18,826) 93,430 - $0.40 $5.00 $2.09 las vegas total Community Centers 199 36,808,226 - - 3,736,546 10.15% (1,112,221) 1,061,641 1,078,987 $0.55 $5.00 $2.00 Freestanding 25 1,005,974 - - 220,557 21.92% (131,258) 42,261 - $0.83 $3.25 $1.74 Neighborhood Centers 112 9,427,663 - - 1,396,201 14.81% (670,727) 316,629 587,680 $0.40 $5.00 $2.09 anchorless Strip 200 7,276,272 - - 1,591,153 21.87% (682,744) 322,946 64,737 $0.40 $5.00 $1.76 total 536 54,518,135 - - 6,944,457 12.74% (2,596,950) 1,743,477 1,731,404 $0.40 $5.00 $1.92 C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 5. LAs VEgAs | RETAIL GRAPHS Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Third Quarter 2009 Retail: Quarterly Vacancy 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 7 7 7 7 8 5 5 6 6 6 6 8 8 8 9 9 9 20 30 40 10 20 30 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Retail: Quarterly Absorption (SF) 2,000,000 1,000,000 - (1,000,000) (2,000,000) (3,000,000) (4,000,000) 7 8 8 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 30 40 10 20 30 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 20 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 6. LAs VEgAs | RETAIL GRAPHS Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Third Quarter 2009 Retail: Inventory (SF) and Vacancy Rate (%) 60,000,000 14.0% 55,000,000 12.0% 10.0% 50,000,000 8.0% 45,000,000 6.0% 40,000,000 4.0% 35,000,000 2.0% 30,000,000 0.0% 7 7 7 8 8 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 30 40 10 20 30 40 20 30 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 10 Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Third Quarter 2009 Las Vegas Retail Overview 2005-2009 YTD Retail: Vacancy (%) and Ave. Lease Rates 9,000,000 18.00% 8,000,000 16.00% 25.00% $2.50 7,000,000 $2.22 12.74% 14.00% $1.95 $2.29 $2.19 20.00% 6,000,000 $2.09 $2.00 12.00% $2.03 $1.62 Square Feet $1.82 Vacancy 5,000,000 $1.57 10.00% 15.00% $1.50 4,000,000 $1.45 8.00% 10.00% 3,000,000 7.40% $1.00 6.00% 3.71% 4.31% 2,000,000 4.00% 5.00% 3.90% $0.50 1,000,000 2.00% 0.00% $0.00 0 0.00% Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 YTD n st y l in s t t t lis st es as es ll e so ga we Ea l er Ave Lease Rate Ne $1.75 $1.92 $2.04 $2.15 $1.92 hw lE lW Va er Ve m rth nd ra ut m ra en Base * Sf Millions s No 44.50 48.73 50.06 50.40 54.52 nt So He Su La nt re Ce Ce G rth No Built Vacant Inventory Vacancy C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 7. LAs VEgAs | RETAIL GRAPHS Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Third Quarter 2009 Retail Space Vacancy Rates Central East, Sum m erlin, 5.30% 14.17% Southw est, 19.42% Central West, 11.07% Northw est, 10.95% East, 9.62% Green Valley, North Las Vegas, 11.04% 16.70% Henderson, 10.88% Nellis, 15.40% Retail Vacancy by Type Freestanding, Anchorless Strip, 21.92% 21.87% Com m unity Neighborhood Centers, 10.15% Centers, 14.81% C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 8. LAs VEgAs | RETAIL SUBMARKET MAP C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w
  • 9. COMMERCE CRg | fULL sERVICE COMMERCIAL REAL EsTATE sOLUTIOns Commerce CRG has been among the top commercial real estate brokerage firms in the Intermountain West for 30 years. From our headquarters in Salt Lake City and offices in Provo/Orem, Park City, Clearfield and St. George, Utah and Las Vegas, Nevada we offer a full range of brokerage services, valuation and consulting, client representation and property/facility management. Our alliance with Cushman & Wakefield extends our reach worldwide. CUshMAn & WAKEfIELd ALLIAnCE A number of Cushman & Wakefield offices, including Commerce CRG, are independently owned and connected with the company by way of an international alliance. Cushman & Wakefield concentrates on larger markets like Los Angeles and New York, and alliance members like Commerce CRG concentrate on developing secondary markets. Together the geographic coverage is nearly universal. This enables Cushman & Wakefield to provide comprehensive services for clients with local requirements as well as for those with more expansive national or international portfolios. In either case, Cushman & Wakefield’s services are supported by the full integrated resources of the entire alliance. Cushman & Wakefield is the world’s largest privately-held commercial real estate services firm. Founded in 1917, it has 230 offices in 58 countries and more than 15,000 employees. The firm represents a diverse customer base ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies. It offers a complete range of services within four primary disciplines: Transaction Services, including tenant and landlord representation in office, industrial and retail real estate; Capital Markets, including property sales, investment management, valuation services, investment banking, debt and equity financing; Client Solutions, including integrated real estate strategies for large corporations and property owners, and Consulting Services, including business and real estate consulting. A recognized leader in global real estate research, the firm publishes a broad array of proprietary reports available on its online Knowledge Center at www.cushmanwakefield.com. 230 Offices in 58 Countries Europe Austria Bulgaria Channel Islands France Ireland Norway Russia Vienna* Pleven* Jersey* Lyon Cork* Drammen* Moscow Canada Belgium Plovdiv* Sofia* Czech Republic Paris Dublin* Oslo* Stavanger* Scotland Brussels Prague Germany Italy Edinburgh Alberta Manitoba Newfoundland Berlin Bologna Poland Glasgow Calgary Winnipeg* St. John's* Denmark Dusseldorf Milan Warsaw Edmonton* Copenhagen* Serbia New Brunswick Nova Scotia Frankfurt Rome Portugal Belgrade* British Columbia Fredericton* Halifax* England Hamburg Luxembourg Lisbon Vancouver Moncton* Birmingham Munich Slovakia Ontario Luxembourg* Saint John* London-City Romania Bratislava Greece United States London Newmarket London-West End Athens Macedonia Bucharest Spain Manchester Skopje* Timisoara Ottawa Barcelona Thames Valley Hungary Toronto Central Budapest The Netherlands Madrid Toronto East Amsterdam Alabama Sweden Maine Toronto West Birmingham* Northern Ireland Stockholm Portland Quebec Belfast* Mobile Switzerland Maryland Montreal Central Basel* Arizona Montreal Suburban Phoenix Baltimore Geneva* Tempe Bethesda Zurich* Tucson* Massachusetts Turkey California Boston Istanbul Carlsbad Michigan Inland Empire Ohio L.A. Detroit* Grand Rapids* Cincinnati* Middle East/Africa L.A. South Bay Grosse Point Cleveland* Israel South Africa United Arab Emirates L.A. West Kalamazoo* Columbus* Tel Aviv* Cape Town* Dubai Marin/Sonoma Cty Lansing* Toledo* Durban* Oakland Muskegon* Lebanon Oregon Johannesburg* Orange County Beirut* Portland Pretoria* Sacramento Minnesota San Diego - Downtown Minneapolis Minneapolis Suburban Pennsylvania San Diego - Eastgate Philadelphia San Francisco Missouri Philadelphia Suburban San Jose Kansas City* Pittsburgh* Australia/Asia Pacific Walnut Creek St. Louis* Puerto Rico Australia Malaysia Colorado Nevada San Juan* Adelaide* Kuala Lumpur* Colorado Springs* Latin America Las Vegas* Melbourne* South Carolina New Zealand Denver Reno Sydney Charleston* Auckland* Connecticut Argentina Ecuador China Wellington* New Hampshire Greenville/Spartanburg* Buenos Aires Quito Hartford Manchester Beijing Stamford Tennessee Chengdu Pakistan Brazil Mexico New Jersey Guangzhou Karachi* Memphis* Manaus Ciudad Juarez Delaware East Rutherford Nashville* Rio de Janeiro Guadalajara* Hong Kong Philippines Wilmington Edison São Paulo Mexico City Shanghai Manila* District of Morristown Texas Monterrey Shenzhen Columbia Austin* Chile Singapore New York Dallas Santiago* Peru Fiji* Washington, D.C. South Korea Albany* Lima Houston Colombia India Busan Florida Binghamton* San Antonio* Buffalo* Bogota* Venezuela Bangalore Seoul Ft. Lauderdale Corning/Elmira* Caracas Chennai Ft. Myers* Utah Gurgaon Taiwan Jacksonville Islandia Clearfield/Ogden* Taipei* Ithaca* Hyderabad Miami Park City* Kingston* Kolkata Thailand Orlando Provo/Orem* Melville, LI Mumbai – City Bangkok* Palm Beach Gardens Salt Lake City* N.Y. Downtown Mumbai – Suburbs Tampa St. George* Vietnam N.Y. Midtown New Delhi Georgia Virginia Pune Hanoi Rochester* Ho Chi Minh City C&W Owned Offices Atlanta Syracuse Fredicksburg* Indonesia Syracuse* McLean Hawaii Jakarta C&W Alliance/Associate Offices Utica* Newport News* Honolulu Watertown* Norfolk/Virginia Beach* Japan AS OF MARCH 2009 Illinois Westchester County Richmond* Tokyo Chicago Roanoke* Chicago Suburban North Carolina Washington Charlotte* Indiana Bellevue Greensboro/Winston-Salem* Indianapolis* Seattle Raleigh/Cary Kentucky Raleigh/Durham* Wisconsin Louisville* Tarboro* Milwaukee* C o m m e r C e C r G | t h i r d Q ua r t e r - 2 0 0 9 | r e ta i l m a r k e t r e v i e w