Synergizing Two NWP Models to Improve Hub-Height Wind Speed Forecasts Hong Liu, Ph.D., ORTECH Power Peter Taylor, Ph.D., Prof., York University CanWEA2010, 26th Annual Conference and Exhibition Montreal, Quebec – November 1, 2010
Synergizing Two NWP Models to Improve Hub-Height Wind Speed Forecasts Drivers Methodology Evaluation Criteria Data Source Results Discussions
ORTECH Power An engineering/consulting firm that specialized in getting renewable energy projects completed, from project management to permitting to financial analysis onto commissioning. ORTECH helps; investors buy Wind Farms developers build Wind Farms
Drivers Two forecast paradigms: Statistical Physical Forecast errors dictated by phase error (Lange, 2003; Liu, 2009 ) Refined NWP modelling limited by data availability (Giebel, 2003, Yu, et al, 2008, Liu, 2009) Ensemble forecasts constrained by computational resources (Cutler, et al, 2008, Mohrlen, 2004) Synergizing outputs from more than 1 NWP model as an alternative (Marti, 2006, Nielsen et al, 2007)
Discussions Importance of forecast aspects Trading Unit commitment & scheduling O&M Next step is to see if this approach could improve the ramp forecasts
References Cutler, N., Kepert, J. D., Outhred, H. R. and MacGill, I. F., 2008, Characterizing Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty with numerical Weather Prediction Spatial Fields, Wind Engineering, 32, 509-524. Giebel, G., 2003, The State-of-the-Art in Short-Term Prediction of wind Power - A Literature Overview, Project ANEMOS, Risø National Laboratory. Lange, M., 2003, Analysis of the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions, PhD Thesis, University Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany. Liu, H., 2009, Wind Speed Forecasting for Wind Energy Applications, PhD Thesis, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Marti, I., 2006, Evaluation of Advanced Wind Power Forecasting Models – Results of the Anemos Project, European Wind Energy Conference, Athens, Greek. Mohrlen, C., 2004, Uncertainty in wind energy forecasting, PhD Thesis, University College Cork, National University of Ireland. Nielsen, H. A., Nielsen, T. S. and Madsen H., 2007, Optimal Combination of wind Power Forecasts, Wind Energy, 10: 471-482 Yu, W, Plante, A., Chardon, L., Benoit, R., Glazer, A., Tran, L. D., Gauthier, F., Petrucci, F., Forcione, A. and Roberge, G., 2008, A Wind Forecasting System for Application in Wind Power Management – Results from One-year Real-Time Tests in Quebec, CanWEA 2008 Annual Conference, Vancouver, Canada.
Synergizing Two NWP Models to Improve Hub-Height Wind Speed Forecasts Hong Liu, Ph.D., ORTECH Power Peter Taylor, Ph.D., Prof., York University Thank you CanWEA2010, 26th Annual Conference and Exhibition Montreal, Quebec – November 1, 2010