Combine tools for vulnerability and disaster risk assessment in terai


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Combine tools for vulnerability and disaster risk assessment in terai

  1. 1. Tools for Vulnerability and Multi Hazard Risk Assessment in the Terai Eco-region An Experience of JWAS and HUDEP (Mahottari & Sunsari) Dr. Krishna Bahadur Karki & Mr. Krishna Prasad Ghimire
  2. 2. The eco-region-the Terai  Similarities in Mahotari and Sunsari  Terai based region Climate Geology Forest types (Vegetation ) Land use pattern and agriculture system Degraded Watershed Seasonal Variability in water flows and flood
  3. 3. Differences  The Koshi River has all the year round flows only the difference of volume of water
  4. 4. Assessment tools  Use of the tools is the results of the two workshops organized by UNDP (Chitawan and Kathmandu) before proceed to the fields- Reference : Dr. NR Khanal and Dr. D. Gautam Focused on Social vulnerability Economic Vulnerability Environment vulnerability Physical vulnerability  Spatial land analysis
  5. 5. Social, physical structures andSocial, physical structures and capacity mappingcapacity mapping Approach- Focus Group DiscussionApproach- Focus Group Discussion (FGD) & Household Survey (HS) with(FGD) & Household Survey (HS) with set of questionnaires , keyset of questionnaires , key informant discussion, Livelihoodinformant discussion, Livelihood trend analysistrend analysis Hazard and vulnerability mappingHazard and vulnerability mapping  1:1 Topo sheet (1958) , LRMP1:1 Topo sheet (1958) , LRMP (1986), FINIDA map 1996 and(1986), FINIDA map 1996 and compare WITH Google Earthcompare WITH Google Earth Time series Aerial photographsTime series Aerial photographs (1990 )(1990 )  Intensity of Hazards and trendIntensity of Hazards and trend analysis-Data analyzed in Arc Gisanalysis-Data analyzed in Arc Gis
  6. 6. Walk through theWalk through the vulnerable area withvulnerable area with other expert, markother expert, mark the GPS coordinatethe GPS coordinate points, geology,points, geology, hydrologist,hydrologist, watershedwatershed management experts,management experts, soil and land usesoil and land use experts & prepareexperts & prepare Vulnerable maps,Vulnerable maps, Land Use maps. GPSLand Use maps. GPS coordinates analyzedcoordinates analyzed in ArcGis Programin ArcGis Program
  7. 7. dw'jg uflj;sf ;/f]sf/jfnfx? dw'jg uflj; ljBfnox ? Kf| x/Lrf}sL :jf:Yo rf}sL X'nfs sfof{no Uff=lj=; = Kof/flnun :yfgLo ljkb Aoj:yfkg ;ldlt Dflxnf ;d"xDfl:hbx? Onfsf jg sfof{no / fhgLlt s bnx? Smf];L6K k' /f=lg= a=cf= Onfsf kz' sfof{no D'l:nd ;+3
  8. 8. Historical profile of the community – pastHistorical profile of the community – past disasters (such as loss and frequencydisasters (such as loss and frequency mapping), gradual changes in the societalmapping), gradual changes in the societal structures and risk profiles of the communitystructures and risk profiles of the community
  9. 9. ljkbsf 36gf 36gf 36]sf] jif{ 36gf 36]sf] :yfg Ifltsf] ljj/0f dfgjLo Ef}flts Rf}kfof Iflt hËnL hgfj/sf] cftÍ @)$#, @)$$, @)$^, @)^^, @)^%, @)^$ ,@)^^, @)^* Dfw'jg jf8{ g ^, Dfw'jg * dw'jg (, Dw'jg @, Dw'jg(, Dw'jg @,$,%, ^, !, (,& ! d[To' ( 3fOt] # j6f 3/ !% 3/ uf]7 Cgfh / pv'afnL Aff9L @)%&÷%*÷% ( b]lv @)^& ;Dd @)^%.%.@ Dfw'jg &,*, %,#,! Dfw'jg ( Nfuftf/ Hfldg s6fg * ufO{ e} +;L cfunfuL @)$%–@)^ % ;fn @)^%– @)^* Dfw'jg *,( Dfw'jg %,(,& @ j6f 3/ & j6f 3/ – Xfjfx'/L @)^$–)^% Dfw'jg @, %,,&,$ ! afn ljsf; ejg gi6 dw'jg uflj;sf ;do/]vf ljZn]if0f
  10. 10. o Flood calculated following empiricalFlood calculated following empirical formulae developed by WECSformulae developed by WECS The 2 year and 100 year returned period Q2 and Q100 flood is calculated From the following equation. Q2 =1.8767*(Area below 3000 m )0.8783 Q100=14.630 *(Area below3000 m)0.7342 The 50 year flood is then calculated using the following formula Q50 =e (InQ2 + In S*2.054) where In S= In (Q100/Q2 )/2.326 Calculation of Q50 at Maisthan: Q2= 24.700 m3 /s Q100= 126.154 m3 /s In S=In (126.154/24.7)/2.326 0.701 Q50=e(InQ2+InS*2.054) 103.53 m3 /s Calculation of Q50 at Phulbaria: Q2= 53.502 m3 /s Q100= 240.715 m3 /s In S=In (240.715/53,502)/2.326 0.646 Q50=e(InQ2+In S*2.054) 199.71 m3 /s In addition Erodes-imagine, Geo-reference enhancement were also tried to use Hazards analysis, flood calculation
  11. 11. Sedimentation caused by Koshi flood of 2008 in the downstream VDCs
  12. 12. January February March April May June July August September October November December January February pointed guard, water melon, Cucumber rock melon , Tomato, bitter guard, sponge guard Kentuky bean, cowpeas etc. Nursery Cauliflow ers summer vegetables contd.. Proposed cropping pattern for River Bank farming in Sunsari and Mahottari Tomato, cabbage, broccoli River bank farming is very profitable if appropriate water and fertilizer management is done in conducible manner . For summer vegetable crops the nursery is proposed during winter but are done in a plastic tunnel where temperatures is raised certain number of days have to be passed on the tunnel. Improved practices of vegetables cultivation, drip irrigation and integrated nutrients management system needs to be followed. Sand culture techniques of vegetable cultivation has to be Applied Seasonal calendars – hazard calendar/climate variability, cultivation & harvestingSeasonal calendars – hazard calendar/climate variability, cultivation & harvesting calendarcalendar
  13. 13. Seasonal Calendar of Mahendranagar VDC ljkb Af}i ffv Hf] 7 c;f/ >fj0 f Eff b| cflZjg sflQ{ s d+l; / Kff }if Dff 3 kmf u'g R}ft Aff9L cfunfuL Xfjfx'/L Dffxfdf/L E"fsDk E"fIfo cl;gf Rf6ofª ;k{b+z xfQL cftÍ Rf8kj{ afnL nufpg] ; do afnL p7fpg] ; do
  14. 14. Thank You Welcome to queries and suggestions ?????