Passing the healthcare innovation torch: from medicinal chemistry, though biotechnology to digital technology
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Passing the healthcare innovation torch: from medicinal chemistry, though biotechnology to digital technology

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In the middle of the 20th Century, pharmaceutical companies were highly respected and patients depended on their physicians to make healthcare decisions. Drugs were a key part of a physician’s ...

In the middle of the 20th Century, pharmaceutical companies were highly respected and patients depended on their physicians to make healthcare decisions. Drugs were a key part of a physician’s ‘toolkit’.

As we entered the era of the blockbuster drugs, most were small molecules made by chemical synthesis, but biotechnology was starting to emerge as a possible source of new therapeutics. Meanwhile, direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising began to empower patients.
 
Fast forward to today, and we see pharmaceutical companies suffering degraded reputations and values, patients further empowered by the Internet and social media, and average life expectancies increased by a decade. Digital health technologies are poised to explode and the top 10 pharmaceuticals by sales will soon all be biologicals!

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Passing the healthcare innovation torch: from medicinal chemistry, though biotechnology to digital technology Passing the healthcare innovation torch: from medicinal chemistry, though biotechnology to digital technology Presentation Transcript

  • Passing the Healthcare Innovation Torch:From Medicinal Chemistry throughBiotechnology to Digital TechnologyFrontiers of MedicineMaRS8 May 2013Martin Sumner-Smith
  • About meMartin Sumner-Smith, PhDAcademic – Biotechnology – Bioinformatics – Enterprise – Advisory1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
  • Global Core SystemsThe world’s 4 trillion dollar challenge, Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet – IBM
  • Inefficiency in HealthcareThe world’s 4 trillion dollar challenge, Using a system-of-systems approach to build a smarter planet – IBM
  • PharmaceuticalsDigital HealthBiotechnologyMedicinal Chemistry
  • “…the industry has seen itself as an independentproduct supplier to healthcarerather than as an integrated part of, andcollaborator with, the other participants in theecosystem.”Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
  • Market Growth
  • Patent ExpiryFade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
  • Declining R&D productivityFade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
  • R&D Success vs. ExpenditureIdentifying R&D outliersPeter Tollman, Yves Morieux, Jeanine Kelly Murphy & Ulrik SchulzeNature Reviews Drug Discovery 10, 653-654 (September 2011)
  • Identifying R&D outliersPeter Tollman, Yves Morieux, Jeanine Kelly Murphy & Ulrik SchulzeNature Reviews Drug Discovery 10, 653-654 (September 2011)
  • http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/in_vivo_new_face_of_blockbuster_drugs_l.e.k.pdf
  • Life Sciences Industry Trends…• Blockbuster era comes to an end• Strong sales growth but declining expectations P/E for large-cap biopharma fell from 35x in 2000to 11x in 2010 Pricing and access pressures Higher scientific hurdles More stringent regulatory hurdles Increased competition R&D actually destroys value in someorganizations!
  • Slide 18TimeMarketGrowthTechnology AdoptionLife CycleGrowthMarket MatureMarketDecliningMarketIndefinitely elasticmiddle periodEnd ofLifeAFaultLine!EDCBThe Category Maturity LifecycleCategory Lifecycle
  • Slide 19ExperientialInnovationMarketingInnovationInnovation Types for Mature Markets – Customer Intimacy ZoneCustomer Intimacy ZoneEnhancementInnovationLine ExtensionInnovationThere are four types of innovation in the Customer Intimacy Zone
  • Slide 20Market Access• Moore describes this further marketdevelopment as ‘fractilization’ of coremarketsPC
  • 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’sFirst DTG in 1981Merck’s Pneumovax in Reader’s Digesthttp://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3278148/
  • http://www.zoloft.com/
  • Average Life Expectancyhttps://www.google.ca/publicdata
  • TRIZGenrich Altshuller:“Theory of Inventive Problem Solving”1. Problems and solutions are repeated acrossindustries and sciences2. Patterns of technical evolution are alsorepeated across industries and sciences3. Innovations used scientific effects outsidethe field in which they were developedhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRIZ
  • http://www.triz-journal.com/archives/1998/12/a/
  • http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/in_vivo_new_face_of_blockbuster_drugs_l.e.k.pdf
  • http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/in_vivo_new_face_of_blockbuster_drugs_l.e.k.pdf
  • Therapeutic FociFade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
  • Market Leading “Pharmaceuticals”• In 2012 the top pharmaceutical was abiological for the first time Abbvie’s HUMIRA• “By 2020 the top 10 pharmaceuticals will allbe biologicals” – Steve Burrill
  • Sales Erosion after Patent ExpirySmall MoleculeBiologicalsMeasuring the return from innovation: Is R&D earning its investment? – Deloitte
  • Ultra-Orphanshttp://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2012/09/05/how-a-440000-drug-is-turning-alexion-into-biotechs-new-innovation-powerhouse/Alexion’s Soliris
  • R&D Innovation• Rising costs, especially sunk cost for failures Late stage failure rates too high• Declining output Need to simplify operations• Costs 7x in 25 years Cost per new drug now $1.1 - 1.7 billion Slow pace of discovery and validation Inefficient patient recruitment• 80% miss deadlines, average 90 day delay Complex analysis required for trial termination
  • RiskMitigationThe future of the life sciences industries:Transformation amid rising risk – Deloitte
  • http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnnosta/2013/04/16/digital-health-will-pharma-follow-or-lead/
  • Life Sciences Industry Trends• Traditionally:A high-risk, high-margin business• But increasing pressures:• Loss of patent protection & competition from generics• Costs of innovation and R&D skyrocketing• Reimbursement ceiling and demands• Increased transparency required by regulators & others• Drive a move to:Managed risk and more conservative margins
  • “The life sciences industry stands at a crossroads.Its business model is broken,and the surrounding healthcare ecosystem ischanging dramatically.So how should companies respond?They can carry on as normal andpotentially fade into insignificanceor completely rethink how they engage with theother stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem in aneffort to flourish anew.”Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
  • “…you can’t meet the challenges of tomorrow withyesterday’s tools—and expect to survive.”The future of the life sciences industries: Transformation amid rising risk– Deloitte
  • PharmaceuticalsDigital HealthBiotechnologyMedicinal Chemistry
  • “One of the key drivers for the future lies in usinginformation to create more personalised care andstandardisation at the same time. We are witnessingthe ‘industrial revolution’ of healthcare, enabled by IT”– PA Consulting
  • “And while the industry remains data rich, it isweaker when it comes to turning data into insights.”Fade or flourish? Rethinking the role of life sciences companies in the healthcare ecosystem – IBM
  • From vision to decision: Pharma 2020 – pwc
  • Engaging the Patienthttp://www.ted.com/talks/jamie_heywood_the_big_idea_my_brother_inspired.html
  • “The shifting trend in pharma towards increasedadoption of IT beyond their traditional needs andexploring new IT avenues in digitalmarketing, regulatory submissions, predictiveanalysis & cloud computing has become moreevident in the last few years.”IT Life Sciences Summit 2012: Technology Enabled Pharmaceutical Business Transformation – DIA
  • ChangeTimeAchievedExpected
  • Gartner’s Hype Cycle
  • Source: http://www.infoq.com/news/2012/08/Gartner-Hype-Cycle-2012
  • http://rockhealth.com/2013/04/2013-digital-health-funding-update/
  • http://www.xcubelabs.com/mhealth-infographics.php
  • Smartphone/Tablet base features• Processor• Local and Cloud storage• Distant communication• Time• Location• Activity• Local communication• Camera…
  • WearablesIMS estimates $14 million in 2011rising to $171 million by 2016
  • Add-ons
  • Proteus Digital Health
  • The Internet of things – M2M
  • Watson
  • Where do the data go?
  • Synergy“At 8:03am you used your asthma pufferwhile entering the MaRSconcourse, walking at a moderate pacetowards the Tim Horton’s after anunusually long subway ride. Your pulse was110, blood pressure 135/80, temperature37.2, blood glucose…”
  • “Based on data collected to date I estimate thatthere is 78.9% probability of an allergen towhich you react present at the followinglocations…”
  • Patient empowerment trends
  • Thank youMartin Sumner-Smith, PhDEmail: martins@digitalforhealth.comOffice/Mobile: 1 (416) 727-4426Web: www.DigitalForHealth.comTwitter: @martinssLinkedin: http://ca.linkedin.com/in/martinss