Unlocking the Power of Aviation Operations DataAlliance Network Coverageand Ontime PerformanceRoutes Presentation2 October...
THREE QUESTIONSToday I focus on three questions      How broad is alliance coverage of 1      major population and wealth ...
R E L AT I V E S C A L EDaily Departures by Region                                                                       E...
ALLIANCE DOMINANCEAlliance dominance in key global marketsAlliance share is percent of total nonstop departures between re...
C O M PA R I N G R E A C HHow to compare alliance reach?We compare the Big 3 on population size, wealth and distanceWe des...
MARKET PRESENCEMeasuring Market PresenceFirst, we look at where alliances have service today1. We measure the city pair co...
RANKING THE ALLIANCESSo who’s best? We weight routes by qualityOur data set comprises 0, 1 and 2 stop itineraries.We need ...
C I T Y A N A LY S I SAlliance coverage from key global citiesOut of 100 potential points per market, based on breadth of ...
C O U N T R Y A N A LY S I SInternational network strength from each countryOut of 100                                    ...
THREE QUESTIONSOur three questions today      How broad is alliance coverage of 1      major population and wealth centers...
GULF CARRIER REACHEmirates and Qatar: Current Routes                                                      Asia &          ...
REGIONAL COMPETITIONGulf carriers: threat to alliance players                This table shows the percent of seats offered...
NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIESWhat’s next? Best new markets for EK, QRWe looked at un-served cities and ranked them.The value in...
THREE QUESTIONSOur three questions today      How broad is alliance coverage of 1      major population and wealth centers...
BEST AND WORSTBest and Worst Routes for Emirates                                                Summer 2012 (June-August) ...
A R R I VA L D I S T R I B U T I O NComparing arrival distribution, EK vs. QRQR builds in more schedule buffer than EK, im...
CONCLUSIONSConclusions     Alliance Coverage              Gulf Carriers Competition              Ontime Performance1. Regi...
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Routes 2012, 2 October: Presentation on Alliance Coverage and Gulf Carrier Performance

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Using the masFlight platform, we show that Qatar Airways leads the Middle East’s three super carriers in ontime performance, while Emirates maintains its advantage on network scale and destinations served. This presentation was prepared in partnership with OAG.

Presented on 2 October at the OAG-hosted World Route Development Forum in Abu Dhabi, UAE. According to masFlight’s comparative data analysis, Qatar Airways is currently leading the Gulf’s ‘superconnectors’ in ontime performance. However, when it comes to global network footprint and connectivity, Emirates still enjoys a clear advantage.

However, Emirates, Qatar and Etihad are all still in the infancy of their network expansion and the competition they present to airline alliances is increasing. The key route expansion opportunities for Gulf carriers are with the United States, overflying European hubs. We can therefore expect to see an accelerating ‘land grab’ by Middle East airlines, especially for neutral airports like Boston’s Logan International, and for US hubs with a European focus, such as Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County, Miami International and Philadelphia International.

Regarding the airline alliances, our analysis shows that oneworld needs to add member airlines to compete effectively with Star Alliance and SkyTeam. Star Alliance has by far the greatest network reach, with top coverage across the 1,000 major global markets. In contrast, SkyTeam’s strength is efficiency: its strong, centralised hubs give the alliance great geographic reach through fewer flights that Star. Trailing the pack is oneworld, which while competitive in key cities and market pairs needs new members to increase its coverage globally.

masFlight is a leading analytics platform for aviation, combining global flight information with weather, airport, fleet and economic data. At the World Route Development Forum on 1 October 2012, masFlight and OAG, the market leader in airline schedule data, announced a new partnership to jointly develop operations data analysis tools to enable airlines and airports to understand their own and competitors’ operational performance.

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Routes 2012, 2 October: Presentation on Alliance Coverage and Gulf Carrier Performance

  1. 1. Unlocking the Power of Aviation Operations DataAlliance Network Coverageand Ontime PerformanceRoutes Presentation2 October 2012 In partnership withJoshua MarksChief Executive Officerjosh@masflight.comMobile. +1 703-994-00004833 Rugby Avenue, Suite 301Bethesda, Maryland 20814 USAwww.masflight.com
  2. 2. THREE QUESTIONSToday I focus on three questions How broad is alliance coverage of 1 major population and wealth centers? 2 How much overlap is there by Middle East carriers on key demographic routes? How does operational performance vary 3 across alliances and ME carriers?
  3. 3. R E L AT I V E S C A L EDaily Departures by Region Europe Asia North America StarAlliance 5,519 StarAlliance 752StarAlliance 9,667 SkyTeam 3,218 SkyTeam 394 SkyTeam 5,177 oneworld 2,506 oneworld 76 oneworld 3,283 Emirates 57 Middle East Emirates 21 Emirates 8 Qatar 42 SkyTeam 496 Qatar 19 Etihad 27 Qatar 3 Emirates 230 Etihad 9 Qatar 209 Etihad 2 StarAlliance 164 Etihad 115 oneworld 102 Central & South Africa Pacific America StarAlliance 735 oneworld 748 StarAlliance 691 SkyTeam 210 StarAlliance 642 SkyTeam 561 oneworld SkyTeam 35 99 oneworld 262 Emirates Emirates 18 27 Emirates 2 Etihad 3 Qatar 25 Qatar 1 Qatar 1 Etihad 8 Etihad - Daily NONSTOP departures and markets based on OAG schedules week of October 1, 2012 Source: masFlight (www.masflight.com)
  4. 4. ALLIANCE DOMINANCEAlliance dominance in key global marketsAlliance share is percent of total nonstop departures between regions Region to Region Alliance Share Far East to Africa 100% Few unaffiliated carriers remain Australia to Africa 100% on nonstop flights between India to Africa 100% key global economies India to North America 100% Central to South America 92% • Alliances overfly connecting North America to Far East 91% hubs in the Middle East, targeting high yield business traffic North to South America 88% Central America to Caribbean 86% • Alliances dominate markets that ME North America to Europe 85% carriers can’t reach, such as Europe to Far East 85% US/Canada to Europe, South America Australia/NZ to Far East 85% • If your routes overfly the Middle East, US to Canada 83% and you’re not affiliated with an alliance, Africa to Asia 80% you have competitive issues! Intra Central America 79% Europe to Central America 76%Schedule sample September 15, 2012SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com)
  5. 5. C O M PA R I N G R E A C HHow to compare alliance reach?We compare the Big 3 on population size, wealth and distanceWe designed a method that uses demographics, flight schedules androuting rules to map global city pairs served by each airline or allianceDefine global reach by viable routings Rules for Building Itinerariesamong top 1000 global population centers between City Pairs1. Take population and regional income No airport transfers permitted for the 1000 largest global cities No code-shares permitted; regional affiliate flights permitted2. Determine 3 closest airports for each Segment-based sale restrictions only3. Find bidirectional routings (0-2 stops) Interline OK only within alliance group4. Weight by population & wealth Minimum connect time based on airline5. Penalize long routings vs. shorter ones data and transit times6. Combine factors to measure coverage Maximum connection time 5 hours
  6. 6. MARKET PRESENCEMeasuring Market PresenceFirst, we look at where alliances have service today1. We measure the city pair combinations where service is offered2. At this stage, we’re not considering which service option is better Market presence among 1,000 global cities (No Weighting) Domestic International All City Pairs Group 13,998 153,035 167,033 Star Alliance 10,905 115,904 126,809 78% 76% 75.9% SkyTeam 10,662 97,115 107,777 76% 63% 64.5% oneworld 4,379 53,162 57,541 31% 35% 34.4% Emirates 298 8,807 9,105 2% 6% 5.5% Qatar 27 4,013 4,040 0% 3% 2.4%SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com), OAG global schedules, DoorTrip methods
  7. 7. RANKING THE ALLIANCESSo who’s best? We weight routes by qualityOur data set comprises 0, 1 and 2 stop itineraries.We need to compare them. So we weight itinerary options by:1. Time and distance for the trip versus the fastest competitor2. Importance of the route, measured by population and wealth3. Quality of service, measured by schedule densityWe score each group on each route and show results on a scale from 0-100 points 100 points = Best Option Across All 167,000 Markets Analyzed Type of Route Star Alliance SkyTeam oneworld Emirates Qatar Domestic & 69.8 56.9 32.5 International 4.3 2.2 Just 70.2 56.7 33.0 InternationalSOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com), OAG global schedules, DoorTrip methods
  8. 8. C I T Y A N A LY S I SAlliance coverage from key global citiesOut of 100 potential points per market, based on breadth of service Star Star Flights to/from: Oneworld SkyTeam Flights to/from: Oneworld SkyTeam Alliance Alliance Atlanta 33.8 78.8 60.2 Moscow 35.6 73.0 69.2 Bangkok 45.3 54.3 77.3 New York/Newark 43.5 63.7 82.7 Barcelona 44.1 65.3 77.8 Paris 38.9 72.9 72.6 Berlin 47.2 59.2 79.2 Philadelphia 43.7 54.2 84.0 Bogota 42.6 45.6 87.4 Rio de Janeiro 46.4 25.7 89.0 Boston 46.9 64.7 78.9 Riyadh 38.1 60.3 64.8 Buenos Aires 59.1 59.9 35.6 Rome 38.4 69.7 74.3 Chicago 47.5 56.0 82.0 San Francisco 41.9 57.6 80.1 Hong Kong 50.5 58.6 61.9 Santiago 55.3 58.9 31.2 Istanbul 27.0 55.1 84.7 Sao Paulo 44.9 38.5 86.2 Jakarta 37.8 66.2 61.4 Seoul 31.4 72.3 70.1 London 52.6 59.7 76.5 Shanghai 35.9 76.4 64.3 Los Angeles 38.0 64.7 78.4 Singapore 41.1 57.3 75.8 Madrid 51.6 64.4 72.7 Sydney 50.7 44.1 65.6 Melbourne 53.3 42.4 50.5 Tel Aviv Yafo 40.5 63.8 75.0 Mexico City 32.9 75.6 67.5 Tokyo 39.5 60.1 77.5 Miami/Ft. Lauderdale 56.0 55.8 70.4 Toronto 40.3 57.2 83.6 Milan 42.3 66.4 78.5 Washington DC 40.9 59.6 81.3SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com), OAG global schedules, DoorTrip methods
  9. 9. C O U N T R Y A N A LY S I SInternational network strength from each countryOut of 100 oneworld SkyTeam Starpotential points Global reach is still driven by United States 44.3 59.0 76.8 composition of membership China 8.7 71.2 64.2Japan 37.7 56.7 75.2 Reviewing international flights:Germany 36.7 52.3 84.1 • Star owns key economiesMexico 42.9 68.2 49.2India 24.5 21.9 82.9 (US, Germany, Japan)Russia 29.2 74.8 38.8 • Star also has BRIC tractionUnited Kingdom 39.8 59.7 67.2South Korea 26.7 76.0 63.5 • SkyTeam efficiently coversBrazil 56.1 40.6 77.9 global and regional pairsFrance 33.7 78.3 56.4Canada 32.5 52.0 85.8 • Oneworld depends on keyItaly 28.1 69.3 73.4 members but needs growthTurkey 9.2 16.8 94.8Spain 52.5 61.7 67.3 • Most competitive markets:South Africa 34.7 45.0 78.1 US, UK, Spain, KoreaAustralia 56.6 31.0 57.0SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com), OAG global schedules, DoorTrip methods
  10. 10. THREE QUESTIONSOur three questions today How broad is alliance coverage of 1 major population and wealth centers? 2 How much overlap is there by Middle East carriers on key demographic routes? How does operational performance vary 3 across alliances and ME carriers?
  11. 11. GULF CARRIER REACHEmirates and Qatar: Current Routes Asia & India & Australia, NZ North South Seats per Day Middle East Europe Africa Far East Pakistan and Pacific America America Emirates 73,310 20,072 12,234 12,725 7,870 7,021 2,965 708 Qatar 40,526 8,885 8,674 4,971 4,624 440 1,110 301 Etihad 23,653 5,920 4,537 2,636 1,544 826 829 - % of Seats 55.8% 14.2% 10.3% 8.3% 5.7% 3.4% 2.0% 0.4% Sources: masFlight, OAG global schedules (Week of October 1, 2012), gcmap.com
  12. 12. REGIONAL COMPETITIONGulf carriers: threat to alliance players This table shows the percent of seats offered to each region where a stopover in Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Doha is an attractive routing Asia & Middle North India / Africa Pacific Europe Total Far East East America Pakistan AF/KLM 37% 96% 100% None 65% None 100% 16% British 53% 100% 100% None 72% None 100% 15% Lufthansa 20% 89% None None 49% None 100% 10% South African None 100% None 100% None 100% 100% 17% Based on route circuity of 1.5x or less • For example, BA LHR-JNB 5,635 mi, EK LHR-DXB-JNB 7,397 mi (1.3x) • Carriers face real competitive impact on a subset of routes (10-17% of total network)SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com), OAG global schedules, DoorTrip methods
  13. 13. NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIESWhat’s next? Best new markets for EK, QRWe looked at un-served cities and ranked them.The value index measures each opportunity against the best one (100%)• U.S. is (by far) the largest untapped market for Emirates and Qatar Emirates Value Index Qatar Value Index 1 Chicago 100% 1 Los Angeles 100% 2 Taipei 78% 2 San Francisco 75% 3 Boston 72% 3 Sydney 57% 4 Detroit 71% 4 Dallas 51% 5 Miami 67% 5 Taipei 49% 6 Atlanta 63% 6 Nagoya 48% 7 Philadelphia 60% 7 Koln Ruhr Area 45% 8 Phoenix 58% 8 Miami 42% 9 Denver 50% 9 Philadelphia 38% 10 Montreal 48% 10 Seattle 38% SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com), OAG global schedules, DoorTrip methods
  14. 14. THREE QUESTIONSOur three questions today How broad is alliance coverage of 1 major population and wealth centers? 2 How much overlap is there by Middle East carriers on key demographic routes? How does operational performance vary 3 across alliances and ME carriers?
  15. 15. BEST AND WORSTBest and Worst Routes for Emirates Summer 2012 (June-August) Arrival Delays (up to 14 minutes late) Most delayed routes Most punctual routes Inbound From Delayed % Inbound From Delayed % 1 IKA (Tehran) 69% 1 PER (Perth) 6% 2 CMN (Casablanca) 68% 2 AMD (Ahmedabad) 6% 3 BCN (Barcelona) 64% 3 LAD (Luanda) 5% 4 BEY (Beirut) 61% 4 BLR (Bangalore) 4% 5 TUN (Tunis) 61% 5 ICN (Seoul) 3% 6 DAR (Dar es Salaam) 61% 6 KIX (Osaka) 3% 7 GVA (Geneva) 58% 7 PEW (Peshawar) 3% 8 DMM (Damman) 57% 8 MED (Madinah) 2% 9 DKR (Dakar) 55% 9 LIS (Lisbon) 2% 10 JED (Jeddah) 53% 10 BNE (Brisbane) 0%SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com)
  16. 16. A R R I VA L D I S T R I B U T I O NComparing arrival distribution, EK vs. QRQR builds in more schedule buffer than EK, improving on-time arrival rates GRAPH OF ARRIVAL VARIANCE INTO HUB (VS SCHEDULE) Rate per 10,000 arrivals, June through August 2012 300 250 FLIGHTS PER 10,000 ARRIVALS Average arrival Average arrival deviation for flights deviation for flights 200 -60 to +60 mins: -60 to +60 mins: 7m 35s early 36 seconds early 150 100 50 - -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ARRIVAL TIME VARIANCE (MINUTES) FROM SCHEDULE Tracked arrivals into Doha (QR) and Dubai (EK) from June 2012 through August 2012, with arrival variance between -60 minutes and +60 minutes. SOURCE: masFlight (masflight.com)
  17. 17. CONCLUSIONSConclusions Alliance Coverage Gulf Carriers Competition Ontime Performance1. Regional dominance clearly 1. Competition focused within 1. Few differences among the depends on composition. 4,000 miles of the Middle major alliances − overall East where deployment is around the 80% on-time2. Star Alliance is about scale highly efficient. arrival mark, consistently. and breadth, giving them top coverage across the 2. Middle East, Europe, Asia, 2. Wide variation among 1,000 major global markets. India threatened - circuity Middle East carriers, with via DXB/AUH/DOH is minor. Qatar at the head and3. Star is present in 76% of Emirates at the tail. the market pairs among 3. Key economic opportunities 1,000 top global markets are in the United States. 3. Emirates OTP driven by a scoring 70 out of 100 points different block time in network coverage. 4. Expect land grab in the U.S. philosophy than Qatar, to accelerate, particularly for which appears to add block4. SkyTeam is very efficient neutral cities (BOS) and to time to facilitate customer - strong, centralized hubs hubs focused on Europe connections at Doha. give them great reach with today (DTW, MIA, PHL). fewer flights than Star.

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