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The Regulatory Threat to Broadband
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The Regulatory Threat to Broadband


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TIA experts, including featured guest, former FCC Commissioner Harold Furchtgott-Roth, analyze FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski's proposal to reclassify broadband as a Title II service under …

TIA experts, including featured guest, former FCC Commissioner Harold Furchtgott-Roth, analyze FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski's proposal to reclassify broadband as a Title II service under Telecommunications Act. Watch webinar:

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  • 1. Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Webinar Broadband Stimulus Kickstarts ICT Industry Growth Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen and TIA Vice President for Government Affairs Danielle Coffey March 19, 2010
  • 2. 3-5 Year Forecast and Global in Scope • Report produced by TIA annually since 1986 • Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates • Online version through TelecomTV • Segments information by: – Geography (U.S., international, global) – Sectors & services: • Landline • Wireless • Enterprise • Network equipment • Broadband • VoIP • Data transport • Internet access 2
  • 3. Global Market Forecast • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver 3
  • 4. Broadband Drivers • Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for next four years • Growing demand for high-volume data applications driving all segments • Demand pushes rollout of 4G networks • Government broadband stimulus awards to fuel network infrastructure growth to meet demands • Rural broadband to benefit from stimulus • Adoption of National Broadband Plan on the horizon 4
  • 5. Broadband Growth In the residential market, household penetration of broadband will increase from 64.2% in 2009 to 90.7% in 2013. 5
  • 6. Broadband Subscription Growth Fixed wireless is emerging as a last- mile solution for rural areas. In percentage terms, fixed wireless will be surpassed only by FTTH as the fastest-growing broadband technology during the next four years. 6
  • 7. Infrastructure Spending Cumulative spending on infrastructure equipment will total $130.8B through 2010-13. 7
  • 8. Fiber Deployment A total of 52.5 million miles is expected to be deployed during 2010–13, primarily in the backbone infrastructure. 8
  • 9. Access Equipment Spending DOCSIS 3.0 modems installation will drive spending on cable access equipment by 20.4% over the next 9 two years.
  • 10. Backbone Infrastructure Spending Stimulus funding will extend backbone infrastructure so more homes will be in range of DSL, cable modem and fixed wireless broadband service. 10
  • 11. Overall U.S. Landline Spending By 2011, we expect the economy to be on a recovery path, which will affect most components of the market positively. 11
  • 12. Voice Landlines Voice landlines will total an estimated 176.7M in 2013, a 0.3% compound annual increase from 2009. 12
  • 13. Decline in Voice Spending Overall landline voice spending will fall $160.1B in 2013 from $168.1B in 2009. 13
  • 14. Bundling Up By 2013, only 7 million households in the United States will have non-bundled telephone service. 14
  • 15. Cable Telephone Subscribers By 2013, we project that VoIP will account for 93% of cable’s telephone subscribers. 15
  • 16. Residential VoIP Subscribers The overall residential VoIP market will rise from 27.5 million subscribers in 2009 to 40.0 million in 2013, growing at a 9.8% compound annual rate. 16
  • 17. VoIP Transition Continues Projections show that by 2013 there will be more than 54% as many VoIP subscribers as circuit-switched subscribers. 17
  • 18. VoIP: Residential and Business By 2013, business VoIP will account for 9.7% of all business lines, while residential VoIP will grow to a 35.1% share. 18
  • 19. U.S. IPTV Spending IPTV spending will more than triple to $10 billion by 2013. 19
  • 20. National Broadband Plan • TIA provided a roadmap with 7 main issues to be addressed, including: – Broadband access and adoption – Spectrum allocation and efficiency – Access to all Americans, those in rural areas and with disabilities – Public Safety – Trade – R&D – Energy & Environment 20
  • 21. National Broadband Plan • Focus: Investment and Innovation; Inclusion; National Purposes • Recommendations: – Transition of Universal Service Fund to Broadband – Freeing 500 Mhz of Much-Needed Spectrum – Interoperable Public Safety Network – Digital Literacy Corps – Broadband Accessibility Working Group and Accessibility and Innovation Forum 21
  • 22. FCC’s Broadband Principles TIA APPROVES Every American should have a meaningful opportunity to benefit from the broadband communications era. TIA APPROVES Continuous private sector investment in wired and wireless networks and technologies, and competition among providers, are critical to ensure vitality and innovation in the broadband ecosystem. TIA APPROVES Strategic and prudent policies toward public resources like spectrum will benefit all Americans, by meeting current and future needs and by promoting continued innovation, investment, and competition. TIA APPROVES The nearly $9 billion Universal Service Fund (USF) and the intercarrier compensation (ICC) system should be comprehensively reformed. TIA APPROVES Our Nation should harness the tools of modern communications technology to protect all Americans, including by enabling the development of a nation-wide, wireless, interoperable broadband network for the Nation’s first responders. TIA APPROVES Ubiquitous and affordable broadband can unlock vast new opportunities for Americans, in communities large and small. 22
  • 23. More on Other Sectors Soon 23
  • 24. Research Methodology 1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources 2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory and competitive factors 3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry revenues 4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and assign relative significance weight 5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to compute range of prospective results 6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and institutional knowledge 24
  • 25. How To Order TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Mobile and Wireless Communications Chapter Is Available Today 25
  • 26. TIA: A World-Recognized Authority Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry Works through Policy, Standards, Environment, Intelligence and Networking 3,000 TIA standards developed, including: New Committee: Smart Communications Devices Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling Cell towers and CDMA technology CALEA and P25 Ethernet 26
  • 27. TIA Board of Directors Recognized leadership Advances association mission ACS | ADC | ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp | Avaya | Bechtel Communications, Inc. | Cisco Systems | Corning Incorporated | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels & McCoy | ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft | Motorola | Nokia Siemens Networks | Nortel | Openwave, Inc. | Panasonic Computer Solutions Co. | Powerwave Technologies| Qualcomm | Research In Motion | Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics | Ulticom, Inc. | Verari Systems Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia Technologies 27
  • 28. TIA’s Policy Agenda 28
  • 29. Thank You! Contact TIA at 29