Telecommunications
       Industry Association (TIA)
                Webinar

      Broadband Stimulus Kickstarts
        ...
3-5 Year Forecast and
                              Global in Scope
    •   Report produced by TIA annually since 1986
   ...
Global Market Forecast




    • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing
    • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal d...
Broadband Drivers

    • Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for
      next four years
    • Growing demand fo...
Broadband Growth




    In the residential market, household penetration of
    broadband will increase from 64.2% in 200...
Broadband Subscription
                       Growth
    Fixed wireless is
    emerging as a last-
    mile solution for
 ...
Infrastructure Spending




    Cumulative spending on infrastructure equipment will
    total $130.8B through 2010-13.
7
Fiber Deployment




    A total of 52.5 million miles is expected to be
    deployed during 2010–13, primarily in the bac...
Access Equipment Spending




    DOCSIS 3.0 modems installation will drive spending
    on cable access equipment by 20.4...
Backbone Infrastructure
                      Spending




     Stimulus funding will extend backbone infrastructure
     ...
Overall U.S. Landline Spending




     By 2011, we expect the economy to be on a recovery
     path, which will affect mo...
Voice Landlines




     Voice landlines will total an estimated 176.7M in
     2013, a 0.3% compound annual increase from...
Decline in Voice Spending




     Overall landline voice spending will fall $160.1B in
     2013 from $168.1B in 2009.
13
Bundling Up




     By 2013, only 7 million households in the United
     States will have non-bundled telephone service....
Cable Telephone Subscribers




     By 2013, we project that VoIP will account for 93% of
     cable’s telephone subscrib...
Residential VoIP Subscribers




     The overall residential VoIP market will rise from 27.5
     million subscribers in ...
VoIP Transition Continues




     Projections show that by 2013 there will be more than
     54% as many VoIP subscribers...
VoIP: Residential and Business




     By 2013, business VoIP will account for 9.7% of all
     business lines, while res...
U.S. IPTV Spending




     IPTV spending will more than triple to $10
     billion by 2013.
19
National Broadband Plan

     • TIA provided a roadmap with 7 main issues to be
       addressed, including:
        –   B...
National Broadband Plan

     • Focus: Investment and Innovation; Inclusion; National
       Purposes
     • Recommendatio...
FCC’s Broadband Principles

     TIA APPROVES Every American should have a meaningful opportunity to benefit
     from the...
More on Other Sectors Soon




23
Research Methodology

     1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources
     2. Identify underlying economic, tech...
How To Order

        TIA’s 2010 ICT Market
        Review & Forecast
        Mobile and Wireless
        Communications
 ...
TIA: A World-Recognized Authority

     Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information
     and communications tec...
TIA Board of Directors
               Recognized leadership
               Advances association mission

     ACS | ADC | ...
TIA’s Policy Agenda




28
Thank You!

      Contact TIA at
     msnyder@tiaonline.org



         tiaonline.org

29
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The Regulatory Threat to Broadband

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TIA experts, including featured guest, former FCC Commissioner Harold Furchtgott-Roth, analyze FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski's proposal to reclassify broadband as a Title II service under Telecommunications Act. Watch webinar: http://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/21172

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The Regulatory Threat to Broadband

  1. 1. Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) Webinar Broadband Stimulus Kickstarts ICT Industry Growth Analysis Based on TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Presented by Economist Arthur Gruen and TIA Vice President for Government Affairs Danielle Coffey March 19, 2010
  2. 2. 3-5 Year Forecast and Global in Scope • Report produced by TIA annually since 1986 • Economists Wilkofsky-Gruen Associates • Online version through TelecomTV • Segments information by: – Geography (U.S., international, global) – Sectors & services: • Landline • Wireless • Enterprise • Network equipment • Broadband • VoIP • Data transport • Internet access 2
  3. 3. Global Market Forecast • Mobiledata-services demand skyrocketing • Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) principal driver 3
  4. 4. Broadband Drivers • Post-recession recovery 2010-13 dominant driver for next four years • Growing demand for high-volume data applications driving all segments • Demand pushes rollout of 4G networks • Government broadband stimulus awards to fuel network infrastructure growth to meet demands • Rural broadband to benefit from stimulus • Adoption of National Broadband Plan on the horizon 4
  5. 5. Broadband Growth In the residential market, household penetration of broadband will increase from 64.2% in 2009 to 90.7% in 2013. 5
  6. 6. Broadband Subscription Growth Fixed wireless is emerging as a last- mile solution for rural areas. In percentage terms, fixed wireless will be surpassed only by FTTH as the fastest-growing broadband technology during the next four years. 6
  7. 7. Infrastructure Spending Cumulative spending on infrastructure equipment will total $130.8B through 2010-13. 7
  8. 8. Fiber Deployment A total of 52.5 million miles is expected to be deployed during 2010–13, primarily in the backbone infrastructure. 8
  9. 9. Access Equipment Spending DOCSIS 3.0 modems installation will drive spending on cable access equipment by 20.4% over the next 9 two years.
  10. 10. Backbone Infrastructure Spending Stimulus funding will extend backbone infrastructure so more homes will be in range of DSL, cable modem and fixed wireless broadband service. 10
  11. 11. Overall U.S. Landline Spending By 2011, we expect the economy to be on a recovery path, which will affect most components of the market positively. 11
  12. 12. Voice Landlines Voice landlines will total an estimated 176.7M in 2013, a 0.3% compound annual increase from 2009. 12
  13. 13. Decline in Voice Spending Overall landline voice spending will fall $160.1B in 2013 from $168.1B in 2009. 13
  14. 14. Bundling Up By 2013, only 7 million households in the United States will have non-bundled telephone service. 14
  15. 15. Cable Telephone Subscribers By 2013, we project that VoIP will account for 93% of cable’s telephone subscribers. 15
  16. 16. Residential VoIP Subscribers The overall residential VoIP market will rise from 27.5 million subscribers in 2009 to 40.0 million in 2013, growing at a 9.8% compound annual rate. 16
  17. 17. VoIP Transition Continues Projections show that by 2013 there will be more than 54% as many VoIP subscribers as circuit-switched subscribers. 17
  18. 18. VoIP: Residential and Business By 2013, business VoIP will account for 9.7% of all business lines, while residential VoIP will grow to a 35.1% share. 18
  19. 19. U.S. IPTV Spending IPTV spending will more than triple to $10 billion by 2013. 19
  20. 20. National Broadband Plan • TIA provided a roadmap with 7 main issues to be addressed, including: – Broadband access and adoption – Spectrum allocation and efficiency – Access to all Americans, those in rural areas and with disabilities – Public Safety – Trade – R&D – Energy & Environment 20
  21. 21. National Broadband Plan • Focus: Investment and Innovation; Inclusion; National Purposes • Recommendations: – Transition of Universal Service Fund to Broadband – Freeing 500 Mhz of Much-Needed Spectrum – Interoperable Public Safety Network – Digital Literacy Corps – Broadband Accessibility Working Group and Accessibility and Innovation Forum 21
  22. 22. FCC’s Broadband Principles TIA APPROVES Every American should have a meaningful opportunity to benefit from the broadband communications era. TIA APPROVES Continuous private sector investment in wired and wireless networks and technologies, and competition among providers, are critical to ensure vitality and innovation in the broadband ecosystem. TIA APPROVES Strategic and prudent policies toward public resources like spectrum will benefit all Americans, by meeting current and future needs and by promoting continued innovation, investment, and competition. TIA APPROVES The nearly $9 billion Universal Service Fund (USF) and the intercarrier compensation (ICC) system should be comprehensively reformed. TIA APPROVES Our Nation should harness the tools of modern communications technology to protect all Americans, including by enabling the development of a nation-wide, wireless, interoperable broadband network for the Nation’s first responders. TIA APPROVES Ubiquitous and affordable broadband can unlock vast new opportunities for Americans, in communities large and small. 22
  23. 23. More on Other Sectors Soon 23
  24. 24. Research Methodology 1. Reference unbiased, respected third-party sources 2. Identify underlying economic, technological, regulatory and competitive factors 3. Develop models to quantify impact of factors on industry revenues 4. Create forecast scenario for each causative factor and assign relative significance weight 5. Apply proprietary mathematical models and algorithms to compute range of prospective results 6. Tune the results based on professional expertise and institutional knowledge 24
  25. 25. How To Order TIA’s 2010 ICT Market Review & Forecast Mobile and Wireless Communications Chapter Is Available Today http://www.tiaonline.org/market_intelligence/mrf/index.cfm 25
  26. 26. TIA: A World-Recognized Authority Since 1924, TIA has represented the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry Works through Policy, Standards, Environment, Intelligence and Networking 3,000 TIA standards developed, including: New Committee: Smart Communications Devices Data centers and Cat 5/Cat 6 cabling Cell towers and CDMA technology CALEA and P25 Ethernet 26
  27. 27. TIA Board of Directors Recognized leadership Advances association mission ACS | ADC | ADTRAN | Alcatel-Lucent | ANDA Networks | AttivaCorp | Avaya | Bechtel Communications, Inc. | Cisco Systems | Corning Incorporated | Ericsson, Inc. | GENBAND, Inc. | Graybar | Henkels & McCoy | ILS Technology | Intel Corp. | Intersect, Inc.| LGE | Microsoft | Motorola | Nokia Siemens Networks | Nortel | Openwave, Inc. | Panasonic Computer Solutions Co. | Powerwave Technologies| Qualcomm | Research In Motion | Sumitomo Electric Lightwave Corporation | Tellabs | Tyco Electronics | Ulticom, Inc. | Verari Systems Advisors to the Board: FAL Associates | Orca Systems | Telcordia Technologies 27
  28. 28. TIA’s Policy Agenda 28
  29. 29. Thank You! Contact TIA at msnyder@tiaonline.org tiaonline.org 29

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