If Mobile Telecom products or
services is your business, where
should you be looking ?
Ever since its inception, the surprising growth of the worldwide mobile market—both in terms
of subscriber numbers and the scale at which new and interesting services are being
World Wide Subscribers
introduced and taken up—has repeatedly surpassed expert estimates.
By end-2008, there were nearly 3.9 billion mobile subscribers worldwide and it is expected
that in 2013 this number will reach close to 6 billion.
Figure 1: Worldwide Subscriber Base (In Million, 2006 – 2013F)
Worldwide Subscriber Base (In Million, 2006 – 2013F)
5,800.1 By end-2008, there were
4,766.5 nearly 3.9 billion mobile
Subscriber Base (In
3,892.6 subscribers worldwide and it is
4000 3,334.3 expected that in 2013 this
3000 number will reach close to 6
2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
F – Forecasted
In the initial years, the growth of wireless services was primarily restricted to the developed markets
of The worldwide mobile market with grown rapidly in theadoptedwireless market expanded its 3.9 billion by attracting
has last five years. Declining handset By end-2008, there were
Europe and North America. As prices fell, the by telecom regulators
prices and voice tariffs, along favourable policies nearly
new subscribers in the developing significant increase in America, Africa and Middle East, and Asia Pacific.
worldwide, have acted as factors driving a regions of Latin the subscriber base. subscribers worldwide and it is
expected that in 2013 this
Keythe initialmarketsthe Europe of wirelessAmerica. was primarily restricted to the Brazil have also pickedtoup pace.
Latin American marketsNorth services
such as Argentina, Venezuela and number will reach close 6
! Conversely, the wireless market expanded its reach by attracting new subscribers in
As prices fell, many advanced European markets have almost reached saturation and growth in
these markets is gradually tapering off. Middle East, and Asia Pacific.
the developing regions of Latin America, Africa and
! Today, the Asia Pacific region is growing the fastest in terms of the number of mobile
Atsubscribers.of 2008, American markets —such as Argentina, stood at and Brazil— percent.
the end Key Latin worldwide mobile penetration Venezuela nearly 57
Today, the Asiaup pace. region is growing the fastest in terms of the number of mobile subscribers.
have also picked Pacific
! Conversely, many advanced European markets have almost reached saturation and
growth in these markets is gradually tapering off.
! At the end of 2008, worldwide mobile penetration stood at nearly 57 percent.
SMS and MMS
Mobile Messaging Mobile Factbook – June 2009
Table 8: Regional SMS Traffic (In Billion, 2006 – 2013F)
SMS Traffic (In Billion)
Region 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F Asia totally dominates, this is
inescapable. Over the next five years
Europe 329.0 425.0 465.0 537.6 598.8 657.1 735.7 791.1 and beyond, Asia will account for half the
world’s mobile subscribers, half the
Asia Pacific 967.7 1,605.3 2,102.5 2,444.9 2,649.7 2,890.0 3,069.5 3200.1
handset sales, almost half the messaging
revenues, and well over half of all the
198.2 373.1 624.6 756.4 847.3 882.7 899.7 904.1
messaging traffic. On a global scale, the
future of mobile messaging is an Asian
Latin America 116.9 152.4 191.0 250.2 286.4 317.9 337.3 350.1
story – what happens in Asia will define
50.6 70.1 104.2 132.2 160.6 185.9 209.7 226.3
the future of mobile messaging.
Regional SMS Traffic (In Billion, 2006 – 2013F) Source: Portio Research Ltd.
Table 9: Regional MMS Traffic (In Billion, 2006 – 2013F)
A few years ago it seemed as though everyone in the mobile industry was convinced SMS would be in decline by
now, and still SMS doesn’t get much glory from network operators, yet SMS is the mainstay of non-voice revenues
MMS Traffic (In Billion)
and will remain that way for many years to come. In full year 2008, SMS generated a staggering USD 89 billion in
worldwide revenues, and 2008 figure will grow to pass the USD 100 billion mark in 2010.
Region 2006 2007 that 2009F 2010F 2011F 2012F 2013F
While many believe 12.6 SMS prices may be in danger of commoditizing, they still have room to move and maintain
Europe 8.8 that 15.7 20.6 26.2 31.5 35.7 40.1
profitability, as SMS is still so fast growing and highly profitable. We wholly believe that SMS is at the heart of the
action Pacific mobile 28.9 41.8 - SMS is 64.5booming 83.3 100 billion market - and yet for most of the last few years
Asia in the 13.0 industry 53.0 a 75.2 USD 90.3
MNOS have shown little interest in the service. As SMS use worldwide doubles over the next few years, operators
need to work with vendors to deliver a broad array of innovative new SMS services.
4.0 6.8 13.2 17.1 20.5 24.1 27.4 29.1
In the mature and highly developed markets of Europe and North America, SMS will likely evolve into SMS 2.0;
Latin America 1.6 1.8 2.3 3.1 4.2 5.5 6.4 6.8
SMS will probably find its way into enterprise applications; mobile e-mail may proliferate throughout the enterprise
space and grow in the consumer space; mobile IM may grow vigorously and messaging revenue should continue
to grow East a steady clip. All this looks likely in mature markets, but the real story is always going to be in Asia,
0.7 1.4 1.9 2.7 3.4 4.4 4.9 5.4
where hundreds of millions of new users will come online every year and use just one non- voice service – SMS.
Mobile Factbook – June 2009
Signiﬁcance of Data
Figure 11: Value-Investment Mapping of Data Services
Bubble size correlates to
importance of usability
High “Star” Performer Promising Challenging While SMS is the unchallenged star
performer (low on investment, high on
Importance of Perceived Value
perceived value and moderate in need for
usability), services such as mobile
banking/payments and mobile TV are
challenging to develop because the need
for investment in these services is usually
Need for investment
SMS MMS Email/IM Games
Full-track music Mobile Interent UGC TV
Banking/payments Caller Tones
Value-Investment Mapping of Data Services
Source: Portio Research Ltd.
While SMS is the unchallenged star performer (low on investment, high on perceived value
Operators need for usability), services such as mobile banking/payments and mobile
and moderate in worldwide are offering some form of data service or other and are constantly trying to fortify
their challenging to develop because the needThat said, these services is dangerous to foray into offering new data services
TV are data services portfolio. for investment in it may be usually
without considering their feasibility. Different data services demand different degrees of resources and
Further recommended reading:
involvement from the operator – as is depicted above.
Strategies for Driving Data ARPU
WithIM, music downloads, mobilestrategies for voice services, report is loaded are looking for ways to increase non-voice
increasing pressure on non-voice mobile services operators
Analyze best practice go-to-market
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with valuable information that will been made by MNOs in both developed and emerging markets to find products
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and services which can enable them to stem the decline in ARPU.
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The operators in developed markets have understand MNO high-speed networks to provide multimedia
Ranking the World’s Best Mobile Operators: New ways to measure and
performance, beyond revenues, subscribers and ARPU
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This ground-breaking report delivers comparative analysis of the performance at 204 major
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MNOs worldwide MNOs have focused on innovating with
traditional key performance indicators to compare MNOs operating in radically differing
servicesmarket study creates a previously unavailable level-playing field to fairly judge
markets, this and ring-back tones.
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Digital Music in ASIA
By the numbers.......
Digital music (i.e. online and mobile) will outsell physical music in
Asia. This year India and South Korea have already crossed over.
Globally, online and mobile music sales will represent more than
60% of all music retail sales by 2009.
Almost 50% of all music purchases in Asia in 2006 were digital, of
which 85% were sales of mobile music e.g. Caller Ringback Tones,
OTA tracks, ringtones
Asian music sales will continue to be dominated by mobile music
which will comprise 75% of all music purchased by 2009.
Asia Pacific will generate more than 40% of all mobile music sales
globally in 2009.
While mature markets like Australia and the United States will see
growing online music revenues at 1:1 online:mobile or greater,
emerging markets will be virtually 100% mobile oriented.