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What To Watch

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Published in: News & Politics
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  • 1. What to Watch
  • 2. Who’s winning the middle? Segment Obama Romney Region East 54% 40% *Midwest 50% 45% South 41% 54% West 48% 47% Age 18-29 59% 36% 30-49 48% 47% 50-64 46% 49% 65+ 40% 56% Education HS grad or less 49% 44% Some college 46% 50% College grad+ 43% 53% Postgraduate 54% 42% Income < $36,000 56% 38% $36,000-$89,999 46% 51% $90,000+ 44% 52% Party ID Democrat 93% 5% Independent 44% 46% Republican 5% 94% Source: Gallup. October 8-28, 2012. 3
  • 3. Key Electoral States Tier 1 states to watch: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado Tier 2 states to watch: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada Tier 3 states to watch: Arizona, Minnesota Governor Romney has a narrow path to victory. Beyond the states Governor Romney is likely to win, he MUST win Virginia, Ohio, Florida and Colorado. Less likely alternate scenarios: – ROMNEY WINS - loses Ohio, but wins Iowa, Wisconsin and Colorado – ROMNEY LOSES - wins his MUST win states, but unexpectedly loses Arizona 4
  • 4. Key Counties for President ObamaThe following counties represent the biggest changes in vote gains for PresidentObama in 2008 relative to 2004 and serve as points of comparison for the strengthof President Obama’s ground game in 2012. Republican Democrat Total Swing Swing as Key Counties (State) Vote Change Vote Change GOP to DEM % of Total 04-08 04-08 04-08 State D Gain Franklin (OH) -18,767 48,908 67,675 18% Hamilton (OH) -27,086 25,534 52,620 14% Miami-Dade (FL) -544 90,099 90,643 15% Orange (FL) -5,707 79,655 85,362 14% Jefferson (CO) -11,353 28,462 39,815 13% Denver (CO) -9,677 29,364 39,041 13% 5
  • 5. Most Likely Paths to Victory Gov. Romney’s Math President Obama’s Math States EVs Total States EVs Total Likely Romney 159 159 Likely Obama 165 165 Lean Romney +51 210 Lean Obama +67 232 OH, VA +31 241 WI, OH, VA +41 273 FL, CO +38 279 6
  • 6. Lining up the states Obama Romney Likely Lean Toss up Lean Likely• District of Columbia (3) • New Jersey (14) • New Mexico (5) • Arizona (11) • Utah (6)• Vermont (3) • Michigan (16) • Iowa (6) • Indiana (11) • Wyoming (3)• Hawaii (4) • Pennsylvania (20) • Wisconsin (10) • North Carolina (15) • Oklahoma (7)• Massachusetts (11) • Minnesota (10) • Nevada (6) • Missouri (10) • Idaho (4)• Rhode Island (4) • Ohio (18) • New Hampshire (4) • Alabama (9)• New York (29) • Virginia (13) • Nebraska (5)• Illinois (20) • Florida (29) • Alaska (3)• California (55) • Colorado (9) • Kansas (6)• Delaware (3) • Kentucky (8)• Connecticut (7) • Louisiana (8)• Maryland (10) • Texas (38)• Maine (4) • North Dakota (3)• Washington (12) • Mississippi (6)• Oregon (7) • Tennessee (11) • South Dakota (3) • Arkansas (6) • West Virginia (5) • South Carolina (9) • Georgia (16) • Montana (3) Total= 172 Total= 60 Total= 45/51 Total= 51 Total= 159 277 261 7
  • 7. Key states by poll closing timesBad News for Obama Good News for RomneyLose Win VA 7:00 13 FL 29 OH 18 7:30 OH 18 P MI A2 16 8:00 NH-4 0 MO 10 WI CO 10 9:00 9 CO 9 IA 6 10:00 NV 6 Polls Close All times in EST8
  • 8. 2012 Senate Elections Democrats - 23 seats at stake Solid D (8) Likely D (4) Lean D (5) Toss up (5) Lean R (1) Likely R Solid RFeinstein (CA) Stabenow (MI) Nelson (FL) Tester (MT) Nelson* (NE) Carper (DE) McCaskill (MO) HI (Akaka) ND (Conrad) Cardin (MD) Menendez (NJ) NM (Bingaman) VA (Webb)Klobuchar (MN) Manchin (WV) Brown (OH) WI (Kohl)Gillibrand (NY) Casey (PA) CT (Lieberman)Whitehouse (RI)Cantwell (WA)Sanders (VT) Republicans - 10 seats at stake Solid D Likely D Lean D Toss up (5) Lean R Likely R Solid R (5) AZ (Kyl) Wicker (MS) IN (Lugar) Corker (TN) ME (Snowe) TX (Hutchison) Brown (MA) Hatch (UT) Heller (NV) Barrasso (WY) Source: Cook Political Report. 9

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