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Cal Poly Climate Planning Guest Lecture

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Guest lecture at Cal Poly SLO on Climate Action Planning

Guest lecture at Cal Poly SLO on Climate Action Planning

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  • “There is some common ground where each of the circles converge, but the main priority in this model is the health of the economy. Economists sometimes refer to this as the weak sustainability model ….. it assumes that the degradation of one group of assets, (environmental, social or economic) can be compensated for by improvement in another and that externalities can be externalised (PRISM and Knight, 2000, cited in PCE, 2002). This weak sustainability model fails to acknowledge the ecological constraints that humans, other species, markets, policies and developments must operate within” (
  • Stong Sustainability“This model recognises that the economy is a subset of society (i.e. it only exists in the context of a society), and that many important aspects of society do not involve economic activity. Similarly, human society and the economic activity with it are totally constrained by the natural systems of our planet”
  • Emissions IntensitiesExplicit consideration of growth and intensity

Cal Poly Climate Planning Guest Lecture Cal Poly Climate Planning Guest Lecture Presentation Transcript

  • Planning, Energy, and Climate ChangeTrends and Opportunities
    Matthew Burris, AICP, LEED AP
    CTG Energetics, Inc.
  • The Climate Change Imperative
    Science
    Legislative Trends
  • The Science
    The debate is over
    98% of climate research indicates warming is occuring
  • Greenhouse Gas Emissions
    Signal: Atmospheric concentration
    Source: Land use and human activity
    Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center/ORNL
  • National GHG Emissions
  • We are changing the planet
  • Impacts of Climate Change
    Physical Impacts
    Higher air temperatures
    Rising sea levels
    Changing precipitation patterns
    Social-Economic Impacts
    Risks to public health
    Risks to property
    Displacement of vulnerable people and economic activity
  • The Legislation and Targets
  • Hierarchy of Emissions Targets
  • National Targets
  • Our Brave New World
    • AB 32—Global Warming Solutions Act
    • Mandates reporting, caps emissions at 1990 levels, scoping plan…
    • SB 375
    • Links land use, transportation planning and housing with emissions reductions
    • SB 97
    • Amends CEQA guidelines
    • Projects must consider climate change
  • Climate Change Connections
    Energy
    Water
    Transportation
    Materials
    Agriculture
    Solid Waste
    Land Use
    Habitat
  • Transition to the New Normal
    BAU
    Continuous degradation
    Continuous improvement
    Source: CARB Proposed Scoping Plan
  • Challenge
    California must reduce per capita greenhouse gas emissions from
    14+ to 1.5 metric tons/year by 2050
  • Local Targets
    AB 32 Scoping Plan recommends that local governments reduce emissions by 15% from current conditions -- in line with the state’s overall reduction.
  • Understanding Emissions
    How do you calculate carbon emissions, anyway?
  • The Simplicity of Carbon…
  • Metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year
    Activities:
    • SF of buildings
    • Miles traveled
    • Waste generated
    • Water consumed
    Emissions per:
    • Square Foot
    • Employee
    • Per Capita
    • Per unit activity
    …or not
  • Carbon is connected to everything
    Emissions “sectors”
    Residential
    Commercial
    Transportation
    Agriculture
    Water
    Solid Waste
    Energy
    Land Conversion
  • Land Use as an Emissions Nexus
  • Understanding Emissions
  • By location, time, land use…
    Each Planning Area
  • Changing Sources
  • Systems Problem
    Systems problem needs systems thinking for viable solutions
  • A brief turn towards sustainability
    "In every deliberation we must consider the impact on the seventh generation... even if it requires having skin as thick as the bark of a pine.“
    Great Law of the Iroquois
  • Three legged stool of sustainability
    Environment
    Economy
    Equity
    Environment
    Economy
    Equity
  • The Three E’s
  • The Three e’s
    Economy exists within society
    Society exists with environment
    2 interpretations
  • Sustainable Design Methodology
    Passive Strategies
    System Efficiency
    Renewable
    Sources
    Regenerative
    Design
    Reduce Loads
    Improve Efficiency
    Renewable
    Regenerative
  • Sustainable Design Process
    Monitoring
    Goals,
    Needs,
    Resources
    Develop Baseline
    Measurement & Verification
    Design Alternatives
    Implementation/
    Education
    Cost/
    Benefit Analysis
    Planning & Design
  • State of The Practice Solutions
  • Land Use as an Emissions Nexus
    Land-use influences a wide-range of greenhouse gas emissions, including:
  • Role of Local Government
    Regulatory authority
    General & Specific Plans
    Zoning & Ordinances
    Review of Environmental Documents
    Incentive Programs
    GHG Policies
    CEQA
  • CEQA
    AB 32 Goals are being realized at the community level via CEQA
    Planning and permitting
    General Plan Updates
  • Current CEQA expectations
    Plans and projects should support state GHG reduction goals. This includes:
    Assess the impact on GHG emissions and the consequences of changing climatic conditions
    Quantify and disclose emissions
    Reduce emissions to a level “consistent with AB 32”
    Baselines also vary
  • Typical CEQA strategy: Demonstrate a Break From BAU
    Business-as-usual
    Mandates
    PDFs
    GHG emissions
    Proposed
    Build out
    Carbon neutral
    Years
  • GHG inventory
  • Project Design Features
    Building shell and systems upgrades
    20% better than Title 24 (2005)
    Offset construction phase emissions
    5% additional energy efficiency
    On-site generation
    Solar PV on 25% of suitable rooftops
    Water use efficiency
    50% reduction in potable water consumption
  • Role of Project Design Features
    Business-as-usual (T24 2005)
    Energy efficiency
    PV
    Water
    GHG emissions
    Build out
    Carbon neutral
    Years
  • Example: Merriam Mtns, San Diego
    Master planned community
    • 2,700 DU
    • 110,000sf commercial
  • Approximate cost *
    First cost to builder
    $0.25-$1.50 per square foot
    $500-5,000 per DU
    Long term cost to home owner
    Cash flow neutral on a monthly basis
    Savings on monthly energy bill exceeds additional financing cost for improvements
    * Cost data are typical for these features across Southern California projects – not specific to Merriam Mountains
  • Project Targets
  • Project GHG performance commitmentsA recent Southern California master planned community
    * Including transportation
  • Climate Action Plans
    Establishing programmatic frameworks
    Mitigation for community scale efforts
  • Implicit requirements for California
    Assess the implications of the project for climate change and the consequences of climate change for the project
    Quantify and disclose emissions
    Demonstratea break from “Business as Usual”
  • Next Step: Layers of Plans
  • Climate Action Plans
    Climate Action Plans are the foundation for local government action
    Basis for policy, programs, regulation, and project review
    Changes to traditional tools
  • What Comprises a CAP?
    • Emissions Inventories
    • Targets
    • Emissions targets to support AB 32
    • Reduction Strategies
    • Policy options that prioritize and allocate reductions across sectors, planning areas, time, etc.
  • The Process
  • Inventories
  • Targets
    Business-as-Usual
    30%
    15%
    Community-wide GHG Emissions
    2006
    1990
    2020
  • Community-Level GHG Reduction Strategy
    • There is no silver bullet
    • Solutions vary based on:
    • Location/ climate
    • Local resources
    • Cost of energy
    • Utility and regulatory environment
    • Land use distribution, densities, mix
    • Risk tolerance
  • Hierarchy of Strategies
  • Solutions on many scales
    Buildings
    Land Use
    Transportation
  • Example: Reduction in Intensity
    Reduce Building Energy Use Intensities
    Reduce EUI of 100 % of buildings by 35 % by 2014
    Reduce EUI of 80 % of buildings by 50 % by 2016
    Reduce EUI of 60 % of buildings to Net Energy Zero Energy by 2020
  • Example of reduction policy
    Efficiency Required:52 %
    Intensity ReductionAchieved:28 %
  • Land Use Solutions
    • More: dense, energy efficient, transit-oriented, walkable land uses
    Lower per capita GHG emissions
    • Fewer: low density, inefficient, auto-oriented land uses
    Higher per capita GHG emissions
  • Land use solutions
    Dense, “high intensity” projects can decrease per capita emissions
    2 million sf development
  • Land use solutions
    Dense, “high intensity” projects can decrease per capita emissions
    2 million sf development
  • Transportation solutions
    Source: Travelmatters.org
  • Irvine’s Process
    Bringing ICLEI database down from regional to Irvine-specific:
    Transportation
    Water
    Utilities
  • Irvine Emissions Sectors
  • Irvine CAP Development
  • Identifying Emissions
    Data collection can be a challenge the first time
    The uncertainties in data will serve as a roadmap for future monitoring and verification plans
  • CAP Targets by Sector
  • Irvine Projections – Business As Usual
  • Irvine Projections – 15 % Below 2006
  • Irvine Projections – 30 % Below 2006
    Efficiency Required:52 %
  • Elements of the Irvine CAP
    Emissions reduction strategies include:
    • Actions that can reduce emissions in a sector or sub-sector
    • Address all or part of emissions in a sector
    • Applied over some time schedule between now and 2020
  • Four Types of Reduction Strategies
    Reductions include:
    State actions
    e.g., Renewable Portfolio Standard
    Existing city programs
    e.g., Irvine Green Building Program
    Proposed (unrealized) city programs
    e.g., municipal building retrofit program
    New actions
    e.g., community-wide building retrofit program
  • For 30 % Below 2006 – 52 % of Carbon Intensity needs to be reduced
    Efficiency Required:52 %
  • Integration of Reduction Strategies to Reach 52 % goal
    Business-as-Usual
    State Actions
    52%
    Existing Programs
    Community-wide GHG Emissions
    Expanded Programs
    New Programs
    Years
    2006
    2020
  • CAP Implementation
  • Key: Implementing an M & V Plan
    Identify Key Performance Indicators to Measure (Based on Sensitivity Analysis)
    Update Inventory and Actual Performance on an Ongoing Basis (at least annual)
    This will calibrate inventory as well as creating a feedback loop on progress.
  • Funding
    Energy Master Plan = Approx. $100K
    GHG Protocol Development = Approx. $100K
    Climate Action Plan Development = Approx $135K
    Web-based Monitoring and Verification = Approx. $200K
  • Climate Change Adaptation
    The climate is already changing
    CAPs typically provide little guidance on this issue
  • Impacts of Climate Change
    Physical Impacts
    Higher air temperatures
    Rising sea levels
    Changing precipitation patterns
    Social-Economic Impacts
    Risks to public health
    Risks to property
    Displacement of vulnerable people and economic activity
  • Risks
    Extended heat waves
    Increased flooding
    Increased storm damage
    Erosion and sedimentation
    Reduced water supply
    Increased wildfires
    Public health threats
    Reduced ag outputs
  • Adaptation Strategies
    Flood control
    Water conservation
    Protection of open space
    Alternative water and energy sources
    Thermal comfort
    Diversified economy
    Flexible and adaptable design
  • Developing an Adaptation Plan
    Conduct Vulnerability Analysis
    Identify the hazards and impacts
    Profile the hazards and impacts and potential consequences
    Weigh and compare risks
  • Developing an Adaptation Plan
    Create a strategy to mitigate disasters
    Identify a range of mitigation options
    Select for effectiveness
    Risk reduction
    Feasibility
    Cost
    Create implementation framework
    Steps to take
    Timing
    Funding
    Priority
    Responsibility
    Link/Integrate with CAP and or General Plan
  • Examples of Adaptation Strategies in Coastal California
    Shoreline Flooding
    Acquistion/relocation
    Breakwaters, bulkheads, revetments, seawalls, levees
    Building Codes/Safety Codes
    Detention/retention basins
    Deed restrictions
    Elevation of structures
    Evacuation plans
    Interconnected network design
    Risk and vulnerability mapping
    Subdivision regulations
    Transfer of Development Rights
  • Example: Steamboat Springs
  • Implications for Buildings and Land Use
    Permitting and Planning
    New plans
    Design
    New tools and strategies
  • Design
    Today
    Design and engineering focuses on first costs and energy code; based on historic climatic conditions
    Green building is based on static state or national standards
    Tomorrow
    Dynamic, placed-based green building rating systems
    Consideration for climatic conditions anticipated over the performance life of the project (e.g., higher temperatures)
  • Green building and GHGs
    Reducing GHG’s involves more than green buildings
    Green buildings involve more than GHG’s
    GHG Reduction Activities
    Green Building
  • LEED-NC and GHGs
  • Identifying and Prioritizing Credits
    Relative value of LEED-NC credits with respect to GHG reduction
    National average office building prototype 135,000-sf, 9-to-5
    operations
  • LEED, GHGs and Entitlement
  • Different
    Footprints
    Median building
    4,600 TCO2e | 9 T/FTE
    Efficient building with transit
    Efficient building without transit
    1,100 TCO2e | 2 T/FTE
    4,200 TCO2e | 8 T/FTE
  • Rural credit weights
    Urban credit weights
  • Next Step: Place-based Green Building
    Place-based, context-dependent green building strategies
    Green building “score cards” that respond to local conditions and prioritize strategies based specifically on carbon reduction potential
  • Different
    Scorecards
    Building type, location, and operation
    Available
    credits
    Relative importance of credits
  • Take Home Messages
    New paradigm for planning
    Plans and projects must quantify and disclose GHG emissions
    Challenges remain to the consistent calculation, interpretation, and communication about GHG emissions
    Quite behind on planning for adaptation
  • Discussion
    Matthew Burris, AICP, LEED AP
    Director
    Sustainable Communities + Climate Services
    CTG Energetics