Totten Esource Presentation Portfolio Sensible 21st C Market Transformation 09 28 2008
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Totten presentation to ESource Annual Forum on energy efficiency - Portfolio Sensible 21st Century Market Transformation

Totten presentation to ESource Annual Forum on energy efficiency - Portfolio Sensible 21st Century Market Transformation

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Totten Esource Presentation Portfolio Sensible 21st C Market Transformation 09 28 2008 Totten Esource Presentation Portfolio Sensible 21st C Market Transformation 09 28 2008 Presentation Transcript

  • A Climate Friendly Industrial Revolution A Portfolio Sen$ible 21 st Century Market Transformation Michael P. Totten Chief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater Center for Environmental Leadership in Business Conservation International Presentation at the 21st Annual E Source Forum September 25, 2008
  • Soon to migrate to a web-based social collaboration value net www.conservation.org/
  • Dedicated to Shimon Awerbuch (1946-2007) Utility Portfolio Theorist Par Excellent Portfolio analysis is widely used by financial investors to create robust portfolios that produce efficient outcomes under various economic conditions. In essence, an efficient portfolio takes no unnecessary risk relative to its expected return. Put another way, efficient portfolios are defined by the following properties: they maximize the expected return for any given level of risk, while minimizing risk for every given level of expected return.
  • 21st century highly dynamic conditions and complex variables call for Scenario planning and Portfolio managing. G. Peterson et al., “Scenario Planning, a tool for conservation in an uncertain world,” Conservation Biology, V. 17:2, April 2003.
  • Highly Skewed Economic Growth 10-fold growth in world GDP 1950-2000 2.6-fold growth in world population 1950-2000
  • 7x 9x /yr llion or % tri r1 2 0 r o llion /y ri $29 3% 0 t ~ ~$ 86
  • More absolute poverty than any time in human history Large percentages physically impaired & mentally stunted for life And vast percentage chronically ill and premature mortality
  • 6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate
  • A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered Vulnerability of National Economic and Energy Security Global Military spending increased 40% since 2000 - $1.2 trillion in 2007
  • NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
  • 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours
  • Humanity’s Climate Footprint 1100 Within grandchild’s lifespan Present atmospheric CO2 concentration not exceeded past Your grandchildren’s lifespan 400,000 years, and likely not during past 20 million years. Your children’s lifespan Your lifespan Global temperature rising 15 to 60 times faster than historical Your parents lifespan natural rate. Oceans more acidic than past 800,000 years. dioxide Today carbon methane Past 400,000 years
  • Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2006 now 29GtCO2 2050 reduce to 15 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <5 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
  • Failure of Action Will Put Hundreds of Millions at Risk (Parry et al., 2001)
  • Lack Financial & Technical Infrastructure for Adaptation or Mitigation Pose Increased National Security Risks & Conflicts from “Climate Refugees”
  • “It’s not hard to make the connection between climate change and instability…We will pay for this one way or another. We will pay to reduce greenhouse gas emissions today, and we’ll have to take an economic hit of some kind. Or, we will pay the price later in military terms. And that will involve human lives. There will be a human toll” General Anthony Zinni Retired Gen. Anthony Zinni was among 11 former generals and “You have very real changes in natural systems that are admirals on the military most likely to happen in regions of the world that are advisory board that examined already fertile ground for extremism.” Admiral T.J. Lopez the potential threats of climate change to national security. “the military and intelligence communities should be April 2007 specifically tasked to aggressively find ways to make their data, talent, and systems capabilities available to American efforts in understanding climate change signals..” http://securityandclimate.cna.org/report/ Vice Admiral Paul Gaffney
  • U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses Growing Faster than Premiums, Population, GDP Source: Mills, Roth and Lecomte, 2005
  • $2.5 trillion almost a quarter of the US economy is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.
  • Top 10 Most Costly Hurricanes in US History, (Insured Losses, $2005) $45 Seven of the 10 most expensive $40.6 $40 hurricanes in US history $35 occurred in the 14 months from $30 Aug. 2004 – Oct. 2005: $ Billions $25 $21.6 Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, $20 Ivan, Frances & Jeanne $15 $10.3 $10 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7 $3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $5 $3.5 $0 Georges Jeanne Frances Rita Hugo Ivan Charley Wilma Andrew Katrina (1998) (2004) (2004) (2005) (1989) (2004) (2004) (2005) (1992) (2005) Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.
  • Top 11 Insured Property Losses in US ($2005) $45 Eight of the 11 most $40.6 $40 expensive disasters is US $35 history occurred since 2001 $30 $ Billions $25 $20.7 $21.6 $20 $16.5 $15 $10.3 $10 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7 $3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $5 $0 2) 5) ) ) 4) ) 9) 4) 5) ) ) 94 5 04 01 04 99 00 00 00 98 00 00 19 20 0 0 (1 (2 (2 (2 (1 (2 (2 (2 (2 e( s( w a a y o ck n ita ne ak ilm ce rin rle ug re va tta n eR n qu nd eH ha eI at ea eW ra A th eK eA n eJ eC n eF n ca or ca ar n ca n n n ca ri n n rr ri eE ca ri ca ca ca ca ur ur ri Te ur ri ri ri ri ri ur g H H ur rid ur ur H ur ur 1 H .1 H H H H H th pt or Se N Note: 9/11 loss figure is for property claims only. Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.
  • Yet, Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) Evangelical James Dobson Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee Raymond
  • Including Much of Congress National Journal 02-03-07
  • 75% of Americans Get Climate Change
  • Fiscally Prudent Insurance Need People care a lot about unlikely “worst cases” Airport security is all about worst case possibilities Insurance is not based on average outcomes The average (US) house has a fire every 250 years (0.4% probability per year of a residential fire) But most people have fire insurance Probability of death next year is less than 1% until age 61; (under 0.2% until 40, US data) But most young parents have life insurance Probability of enough warming to guarantee loss of Greenland ice sheet is much greater than 1% Fiscally prudent to buy insurance for the planet Frank Ackerman, The economics of climate policy: Cost-benefit analysis or global insurance policy? European Parliament, 03-26-08, www.sei-us.org/more-news.html
  • A New Climate Economics Uncertainty and catastrophic risk are decisive Climate policy is insurance against low-probability (but not impossible) catastrophic events By comparison, the “most likely” outcome is irrelevant. Certainty will not be achieved until it is too late Climate catastrophes are now at least as likely as risks (fire, death) we buy insurance against Exact probabilities are unknown, but become more likely as the climate changes Cost-benefit analysis offers to guard against the risk of spending “too much” on “favored options” This is a very different (less urgent) problem The real economic question: what is the least-cost way to ensure that we prevent global catastrophe? The economics of climate policy: Cost-benefit analysis or global insurance policy? Frank Ackerman, Tufts University and Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, presentation to the European Parliament, Brussels, March 26, 2008, http://www.sei-us.org/more-news.html
  • “The best way to predict your future is to create it!” Abraham Lincoln
  • DOZEN CRITERIA Desirable attributes of a Portfolio Energy system 1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? 2. Safe through the entire life cycle? 3. Clean through the entire lifespan? 4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility? 5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? 6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity? 7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality? 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time? 10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities? 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities? 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
  • Uninteresting military target A Portfolio Sensible Robust experience curves Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Score Promote Fails gracefully, not catastroph Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically Affordable Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
  • Efficiency services Immense pool Highly cost-effective Extraordinarily low risk A myriad of benefits
  • No. 1, 2,3 Actions: Efficiency, Efficiency, and more Efficiency Decoupling, Financial Alignment, Standards, Dynamic Pricing The Art of Efficiency
  • Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply $700 billion per year in energy bill savings Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year. Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year. Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
  • McKinsey’s recent assessment concluded energy efficiency improvements with a 10% or higher ROI could provide half of all new energy demand through 2030. And IEA’s “Aggressive Innovation” scenario concluded efficiency gains could provide 75% of projected new energy service demand through 2030.
  • Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions oil gas coal forests oil gas coal geothermal agriculture Assumes: 1% 2% 1% 5% biomass1% 5% 10% 1) Global economic bldgs EE growth 2-3% 15% per year all wind century long; 15% 2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains; transport EE 15% 3) Combined solar carbon cap & 15% carbon tax industry EE 15%
  • CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs) BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years – 113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum. SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions. Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century. OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors. OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams. OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.
  • $50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  • Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  • Green Buildings – ecologically sustainable, economically superior, higher occupant satisfaction The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, Public library – North Carolina A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $50 to $70 per ft2 net present value Oberlin College Heinz Foundation Ecology Center, Green Building, PA Ohio
  • Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All: Supplier Chain Factories & Products Demand Facts Efficiency Outcomes Industrial electric motor systems 2 trillion kWh per year savings – consume 40% of electricity equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in built through 2030 worldwide. China – over 7 trillion kWh per year. $240 billion savings per decade. Retrofit savings of 30%, New $200 to $400 billion benefits per savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx. Support SEEEM (Standards SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive for Energy Efficiency of market transformation strategy to promote efficient Electric Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide
  • Less Large Power Plants & Mines More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines
  • SEIZING THE 4 E’S EFFICIENCY OF ENERGY, WATER, RESOURCES AND LAND USE President Hu Jintao repeatedly calls for China to build a great “resource-conserving, water- conscious, and innovating society.” Premier Wen Jiabao continually emphasizes China's development depends on scientific knowledge, technological progress and President Hu Jintao innovation, with a top priority on energy, water and resource conservation and environmental protection. The 11th 5 Year Plan is unprecedented in giving highest priority to pursuing the 4E’s over the traditional fixation on resource expansion. Premier Wen Jiabao
  • Avoided Emissions & Savings per China EPP Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP) (1.8 billion kWh per year) Eliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coal Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2 Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2 Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals Avoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge Saves 45 billion gallons waters Accrues $67.5 million annual savings Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment [1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdf T T
  • $10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value $300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year [source: SafeClimate.net] 6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
  • Wal-Mart Surpasses Goal To sell 100 million compact fluorescent light bulbs Three Months Early CEO Lee Scott
  • On Climate Change Action “We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions. This used to be controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming. Lee Scott 21st Century Leadership Presentation Nov. 24, 2005 “We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce GHG as quickly as it can. Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers, and reduce dependence on oil.”
  • On Climate Change Action We are committed to the following: 1. Aggressively investing approximately $500 million annually in technologies and innovation to do the following: o Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and DC base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years. o Designing and opening a viable prototype that is 25-30 percent more efficient and will produce up to 30 percent fewer greenhouse gas emissions within the next 4 years. o Increasing fleet efficiency by 25% in the next 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years. o Sharing all learnings in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers) 2. Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy change that will create incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency and low or no greenhouse gas sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to integrating these sources into the power grid. 3. Assisting in the design and support of a green company program in China, where Wal-Mart would show preference to those suppliers and their factories involved in such a program. 4. Initiating a program here in the U.S. over the next 18 months that would show preference to suppliers who set their own goals and aggressively reduce their own emissions. These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide. We know that these commitments won’t even maintain our fast growing company’s overall emissions at current levels. There is more to do and we are committed to doing our part.
  • • $1 billion per year commitment • Supply chain energy efficiency • Wireless embedded sensor applications • Energy Efficiency Certificates • Green Servers and Data Centers • Intelligent Utility Networks - Smart Grids • Carbon management • Advanced Water Management • Solar electric technology • Computational modeling • Project finance for Data Centers (both IBM and non- IBM components) • Integrated mass transit information systems
  • MeshNetics and ZigBee Slash Industrial Facility’s Energy Bill By 37% A wireless network with a web server oversees the facility’s energy usage. Every 10 minutes, all values collected by the ZigBee modules are sent to the web server, which in turn channels the values over the internet to a database. Each time the web server connects to the database, changed values are read and sent back to the local ZigBee-based controllers.
  • Global Total Wireless Sensor Network Building Control Units by Protocol 2007-2011 WSN is both driving and benefiting from Web centric technologies and traditional building controls. • BACnet® industry group is working with the ZigBee Alliance to make protocols interoperable • IP based building controls through service oriented architectures and Web services are gaining traction through organizations such as oBIX • IETF’s 6LoWPAN working group is focused on IP based wireless sensing and control devices to facilitate new Internet based web services ON World, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) for Smart Buildings, June 2007, www.onworld.com/
  • Public Policies
  • State Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) A market-based performance standard Implementing a proposed national EERS would commit every state to utilizing this least-cost resource and establish a baseline level of cost-effective and achievable energy savings. Retail electricity and natural gas distributors must achieve a particular percentage of energy savings relative to forecasted energy sales. ACEEE, Energy Efficiency Resource Standard (EERS) forRetail Electricity & Natural Gas Distributors, Sept. 2008, http://aceee.org/energy/national/eers0908.htm
  • Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/
  • Rich Cowart, Power System Carbon Caps: Portfolio-based Carbon Management”, NREL Carbon Analysis Forum, 11-07, www.rap-online.org/ citing:
  • Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/
  • Rich Cowart, Architecture & Policy of Cap&Trade: Power Sector Issues, NARUC Conference on Climate Change & Utility Regulation,07-23-08, www.rap-online.org/
  • Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions Status Quo Retail-driven Scenario USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2007-2030 • Lower energy costs $8 trillion DOE • Lower price Environmental/ health losses price $325 budget volatility volatlity externalities $10+ trillion billion • Lower 2/3 Environmental Dept of efficiency & Health $25 trillion Energy solar, wind energy costs externalities Military/ biofuels Security • Lower military externalities 4% for all & security $10+ trillion efficiency & 5% externalities all renewables Priorities Outcomes Priorities Outcomes Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air & Large Hydro industry damage sector water pollution
  • What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can Do Supporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat and power (CHP), solar photovoltaics, windpower, and cellulosic biofuels, ensures a continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower cost and less polluting goods. Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and emergent opportunities.
  • Ultra-Efficient System Opportunities
  • Vehicle-to-Grid Convergences & Emergences
  • Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
  • Immense Implications of V-to-Grid 1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution system of mobile batteries 2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources become economically attractive because plug-in vehicles provide battery storage 3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost off-peak power 4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in case of load loss, earning income on parked “asset” 5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency 6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity needs
  • Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  • Utility payment for accessing battery when PHEV parked
  • & form Green Superpower Alliance Google already announced that it wants the U.S. to use 100 percent alternative energy by 2030. Now Google & GE plan to 1) focus on developing and investing in green energy technologies; and 2) lobbying US political leaders to support alternative. “Both companies believe that our economic, environmental and security challenges require that we use electricity more efficiently, generate it from cleaner sources, and electrify our transportation fleet. This 21st century electricity system must combine advanced energy technology -- a major GE focus -- and cutting edge information technology -- a major Google focus.”
  • EPRI, GM, 34 UTILITIES COLLABORATE TO ADVANCE PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES Group Aims to Accelerate Grid Integration and Deployment
  • Marine Corps Commandant General P.X. Kelly (rtd) Electrify transport for National Security “The recent conflict between Georgia and Russia has once again highlighted the profound danger that oil dependence poses to free nations, including the United States. Our nation's deep reliance on oil, largely imported from unstable and, in some cases, hostile regimes is corrosive to the integrity and effectiveness of American security policy. The electrification of transportation represents a major Members of the Energy Security Leadership Council - retired US transformation of our energy Marine Corps General P.X. Kelley, retired US Navy Admiral Gregory equation.” General P.X. Kelly, Johnson, retired US Air Force General Charles Wald, President and Sept. 12, 2008 CEO of FedEx Corporation Fred Smith and Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs Robert Hormats, hold a news conference to discuss the dangers of the United States' oil dependence
  • Doubling efficiency vehicle fleet at average cost $15 per barrel www.oilendgame.org/ 2004
  • Developing Countries
  • More absolute poverty than any time in human history Large percentages physically impaired & mentally stunted for life And vast percentage chronically ill and premature morbidity
  • by Jose Goldemberg, Amulya Reddy, Thomas Johannson, Robert Williams
  • End-use-oriented global energy strategy Showed nearly 30 years ago how economically attractive energy technology was available to provide people worldwide with the level of well-being experienced by modern Europeans in the 1970s, on just 1 KW of energy supply. For comparison, the U.S. average is 10kW, OECD countries range between 4 and 7 kW, the world average is about 2.5 kW. At the time they published the book, the average energy consumption in developing countries was 1 kW. But it was super-inefficient, as well as highly polluting and sickness causing. Goldemberg, Reddy, Williams & Johannson, Energy Strategy for Sustainable Development, Wiley-India
  • Brightening up life Micro-utility service provider Mr. Umor, who owns a grocery shop. He bought a PV system with 6 lamps. One lights his shop, and he rents the other 5 to nearby shops, increasing income by $12.50/month, paying for entire investment in 40 months.
  • CFL factories displace powerplants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps. source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]
  • Clean, Safe Water UV Waterworks uses ultraviolet light to quickly, safely, and cheaply disinfect water of the viruses and bacteria that cause cholera, typhoid, dysentery, and other deadly diseases. UV Waterworks can be powered by a car battery or a 60-watt solar cell, is about the size of a microwave oven, and weighs about 15 pounds. It can disinfect water at the rate of four gallons per minute, for about five cents for every thousand gallons.
  • China growth in Green LEED- certified Buildings Century Prosper Center green building Beijing Shanghai Skyway Oasis Hotel LEED-certified Silo City Beijing LEED green building Harbin Municipal LEED green building Hangzhou Xihu Tiandi retail LEED Platinum
  • Daylighting could displace 100s GWs Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
  • High-E Windows displacing pipelines Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.
  • Immense Distributed Energy Potential Recent assessments indicate China could pursue 100 percent high-efficiency decentralized energy (DE) systems through 2021 at a superior financial return than central station investments. Retail and capital cost savings could reach $400 billion by 2021. At no extra cost, new emissions of CO2 would drop 56%, avoiding 400 megatons of CO2 emissions per year, and declines in NOx and SOx emissions by 90 %. But these results are possible only if China adopts key innovative policies enabling a dramatically faster rate of implementation than the current annual CHP addition of 3 GW. Some 100 GW of CHP could be online by 2010 if a number of important power sector reforms occur. LeSang Green Mall in Harbin Hushan Green Apartments in Shenzhen
  • RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES Brick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year. The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.
  • Constructing commercial buildings to be solar passive, active and electric ready Newport Coast Elementary School Computer tools such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) help designers in making more effective decisions when using passive solar design.
  • Solar-Ready Building turns this: Wes Kennedy, VP
  • …..into This! Wes Kennedy, VP
  • Constructing commercial buildings to be solar passive, active and electric ready Rooftop PV array on Bayonne, NJ high school
  • What Supply After Efficiency?
  • USA Renewable Electricity Growth – [R]evolution Scenario EFFICIENCY TOTAL Released Jan 2007 (3,400 TWh – not shown) (33 TWh) (366 TWh) (285 TWh) (114 TWh) (1,220 TWh) (341 TWh) (510 TWh) Source: European Renewable Energy Council & Greenpeace, Energy [R]evolution,, 01-07, RENEWABLE TOTAL www.greenpeace.org/usa/press/reports (2,868 TWh)
  • Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.
  • Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles? Solar-w/storage Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-w/storage turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologies WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  • Web Calculator-Visualizer for emissions reductions from biofuels, wind-batteries, solar-batteries Mark Jacobson, Stanford
  • 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
  • US Population Concentration 28 coastal states use 78% of the electricity MASH-UPS W/ MYRIAD INTERACTIVE WEB CALCULATORS & VISUALIZERS SHOWING RE2 (e.g., WIND FARMS, PV panels, efficiency) TO MEET POPULATION CENTER ENERGY DEMANDS
  • $68 billion for transmission expansion
  • 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
  • Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  • Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  • The Great Plains’ huge wind resource, combined with wind farms’ small footprints and excellent GIS mapping tools, can enable siting that minimizes ecological damage 1. Unsuitable – lands where development is prohibited (Appalachian Trail corridors, for example) or quot;high conflictquot; areas 2. Less than ideal – federal or state conservation lands Wyoming wind power potential South Dakota wind power rated quot;medium conflictquot; is 750 billion kWh/yr – 20% of potential is 1 trillion kWh/yr – current U.S. total electricity 30% of current U.S. total consumption. electricity consumption. 3. Conditionally favorable – Conservation or open space lands rated quot;low conflict,quot; or open space or private lands Kansas (right) wind power rated quot;medium conflictquot;: potential is 1 trillion kWh/yr – 30% of current U.S. total 4. Most favorable – electricity consumption. Unrestricted private land and quot;low conflictquot; areas
  • Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  • Marine Area for Wind Turbines to Provide 50% of U.S. Energy Wind resources offshore are some of the best in the world, and could provide half the nation’s total energy needs from a relatively small area Spacing between turbines Professor Willett Kempton, Univ. of Delaware WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – INCREASING OFFSHORE WIND FARMS DECREASING EMISSIONS, OIL IMPORTS, COAL PLANTS Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  • In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
  • Solar PV satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  • 30 million acres of 10% eff. PV systems could supply US total energy needs – fuels and electricity
  • Electricity Potential from BIPV Stefan Nowak, The IEA PVPS Programme – into the second decade of International Co-operation Results and Challenges, www.iea.org/
  • Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  • Economics of Commercial BIPV Net Present Values, Benefit-Cost Ratios and Payback Periods for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  • 2007 system price
  • Wind Water Use 99% less than Needed for Fossil or Nuclear Energy Production Water Consumption (liters per MWh) 2500 Solar photovoltaic & wind power systems use between 2000 200 and 500 times less water to generate electricity than 1500 fossil and nuclear systems 1000 500 0 Wind turbine Solar-electric combined coal-fired nuclear cycle
  • Vehicle-to-Grid Convergences & Emergences Ubiquitous Communication
  • Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/ Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality. The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo oking-for-the-mouse.html One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
  • The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 140+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
  • • General purpose tool for gathering and distributing knowledge swiftly • Process not product, never finished • Error-correcting process leads to better articles, on average, over time • Every web page latent community able to be enhanced and grown with conversation, sharing, plug-ins • Cumulated insights with annotated changes
  • ENJOY THE RIDE
  • DE-CARBONIZED FOSSIL FUELS?
  • CCS overall cost journey - reference case Mature commercial phase $44-$66 (2030+) Early commercial phase $51-$74 (2020+) Demonstration phase $88-$132 (2015) $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $ cost of CO2 abatement McKinsey & Co., Carbon Capture and Storage, Assessing the Economics, Sept. 22, 2008
  • Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. Fossil- fueled Ecological storage (REDD) Electricity Carbon Offset Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2 cost nationally per year $50 $45 $40 ~$60 billion $35 3 ¢ per kWh $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 ~$10 billion $- 0.5 ¢ per kWh CCS REDD
  • Research commissioned by the Stern Review, indicates that the direct yields from land converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber, are equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton. Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options, second only to energy efficiency options. For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants. The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 times this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
  • NUCLEAR POWER? The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal
  • Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • Operating CO2 emitted per delivered kWh Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org