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Totten Dose Cognitive Surplus Towards Climate For Life 10 08

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green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through …

green and smart techologies for profitably anda positively resolving climate destabilization, mass poverty, species extinction, oil wars and resource conflicts. And accelerating solutions through wiki-meshups.

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  • 1. A Dose of Cognitive Surplus Towards A Climate for Life
  • 2. Soon to migrate to a web-based social collaboration value net www.conservation.org/
  • 3. More absolute poverty than any time in human history
  • 4. 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours
  • 5. Humanity’s Climate Footprint 1100 Within grandchild’s lifespan Present atmospheric CO2 concentration not exceeded past Your grandchildren’s lifespan 400,000 years, and likely not during past 20 million years. Your children’s lifespan Your lifespan Global temperature rising 15 to 60 times faster than historical Your parents lifespan natural rate. Oceans more acidic than past 800,000 years. dioxide Today carbon methane Past 400,000 years
  • 6. 6th largest extinction – 100 times the natural background rate
  • 7. NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
  • 8. A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
  • 9. / yr / yr 2% 3% x 7x 19
  • 10. Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2006 now 29GtCO2 2050 reduce to 15 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <5 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
  • 11. Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/ Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality. The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo oking-for-the-mouse.html One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
  • 12. The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 70,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 140+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
  • 13. • General purpose tool for gathering and distributing knowledge swiftly • Process not product, never finished • Error-correcting process leads to better articles, on average, over time • Every web page latent community able to be enhanced and grown with conversation, sharing, plug-ins • Cumulated insights with annotated changes
  • 14. Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions oil gas coal forests geothermal agriculture Assumes: 1% 2% 1% 5% biomass1% 5% 10% 1) Global economic bldgs EE growth 2-3% 15% per year all wind century long; 15% 2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains; transport EE 15% 3) Combined solar carbon cap & 15% carbon tax industry EE 15%
  • 15. CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs) BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years – 113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum. SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save $50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions. Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this century. OR, Envision eliminating the need for 6,700 Chernobyl reactors. OR, Envision eliminating the need for 13,800 Glen Canyon dams. OR, Envision eliminating the need for 17 million LNG tanker shipments.
  • 16. 14 million ha
  • 17. “Leasing”CO2 emissions per year Gigatons global CO2 Services Billion tons CO2 Some 5 billion tons CO2 per year 25 in CO2 offset services available in LDCs, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving ODCs billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use 13 million hectares burned each year IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  • 18. USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply $700 billion per year in energy bill savings Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year. Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year. Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
  • 19. $10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value $300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year [source: SafeClimate.net] 6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
  • 20. CFL factories displace powerplants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps. source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991]
  • 21. Less Large Power Plants & Mines More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines
  • 22. Biggest Efficiency Option of Them All: Supplier Chain Factories & Products Demand Facts Efficiency Outcomes Industrial electric motor systems 2 trillion kWh per year savings – consume 40% of electricity equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in built through 2030 worldwide. China – over 7 trillion kWh per year. $240 billion savings per decade. Retrofit savings of 30%, New $200 to $400 billion benefits per savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx. Support SEEEM (Standards SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive for Energy Efficiency of market transformation strategy to promote efficient Electric Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide
  • 23. $50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  • 24. Green Buildings – ecologically sustainable, economically superior, higher occupant satisfaction The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, Public library – North Carolina A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value Oberlin College Heinz Foundation Ecology Center, Green Building, PA Ohio
  • 25. Daylighting could displace 100s GWs Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
  • 26. High-E Windows displacing pipelines Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.
  • 27. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Key to harnessing Retail Efficiency Power Plants (EPPs) For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Consumption Coal Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian’s have net savings of $1,000 per family California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  • 28. RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES Brick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year. The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.
  • 29. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.
  • 30. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  • 31. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  • 32. 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
  • 33. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  • 34. Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  • 35. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
  • 36. Solar PV satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 5 million acres of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  • 37. Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  • 38. Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  • 39. Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
  • 40. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  • 41. Soon to migrate to a web-based social collaboration value net www.conservation.org/
  • 42. ENJOY THE RIDE
  • 43. Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months. Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/