A Climate for Life
presentation
by
Michael P. Totten
Conservation International
mtotten@conservation.org
at the
Duke University, Nicholas
School of the Environment's
annual symposium
February 13, 2009
\"A World in Conflict: Tackling
Issues of Water, Energy,
and Biodiversity in the
Developing World\"
www.aclimateforlife.org/
www.slideshare.net/mptotten/slideshows

4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven
EXTINCTION SPASM
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE
FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY

NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE
First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere
rs
u
o
h
4
4
ry
e
v
e
1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

6°C

$2.5 trillion
almost a quarter of
the US economy
is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since
weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the
atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of
hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real
threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be
determining the level of \"catastrophe insurance\" needed:
\"rough comparisons could perhaps be
made with the potentially-huge payoffs,
small probabilities, and significant costs
involved in countering terrorism, building
anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman
…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of
climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that
the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of
national income on the cost of a clean environment.\"
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
2008
now 45GtCO2
2050
reduce to
<10 GtCO2
2100
reduce to
<4 GtCO2
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-
based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Century of Global Economic Growth Compared with Today
yr yr
/ /
2% 3% x
7x 19

The Virtuous Cycle
of Green Innovation
Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
oil gas coal forests
geothermal agriculture Assumes:
1% 2% 1% 5%
biomass1% 5%
10% 1) Global
economic
bldgs EE
growth 2-3%
15%
per year all
wind century long;
15%
2) sustaining
3% per year
efficiency
gains;
transport EE
15%
3) Combined
solar carbon cap &
15% carbon tax
industry EE
15%

“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in
Billion tons CO2
mitigation services available in
25
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
20
annually ; and saving well-off
nations billions of dollars.
15
10 US
GHG
5
levels
0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
14 million hectares burned each year
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

Direct yields from tropical lands
converted to farming, including
proceeds from the sale of timber:
equivalent to less than $1 per
ton of CO2 in many areas
currently losing forest, and
usually well below $5 per ton.
Sir Nicholas Stern
Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately
available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options.
Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 by up to 130 ppm this century.
CONTRASTING ACTIONS:
$45 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.
The same amount of money would prevent the release of 6 times
this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
Geological storage (CCS) vs
mitigation cost annually
Ecological storage (REDD)
(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
Carbon Mitigation Cost
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50
$45
~$100 billion
$40
~3 ¢ per kWh
$35
$30
$25 Reduced Emissions
Deforestation & Degradation
$20
(REDD)
$15
$10
~$18 billion
$5
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$-
CCS REDD
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
$7.50 per ton CO2
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions
1/2 cent per kWh
$18 billion REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
Tropical Deforestation 2007
30 million acres burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions A win-
win-win
outcome

480 gallons per year 4.8 tons GHG emissions
=
(25 mpg x 12,000 miles per year) per year
$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)
Adds 8.5 cents per gallon

Mitigation Portfolio: Shrink, Green, & Offset GHG Footprint

Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring
wilderness, while helping people, species & climate

Market Transformation: Steadily Declining Cap

Ecuador collaborative offset projects
Preserve habitat for threatened
Andean Spectacled Bear,
Howler Monkey, and Northern
Naked Tailed Armadillo

FCCB
Forest Restoration
for Climate, Community and Biodiversity

Indonesia & Brazil No. 3 & 4 GHG Emitting Nations

DOZEN CRITERIA
Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system
1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
2. Safe through the entire life cycle?
3. Clean through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?
10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
11. Robust experience curve for reducing
negative externalities and amplifying
positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities?
12. Uninteresting target for malicious
disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

Uninteresting military target
A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves
Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Fails gracefully, not catastro
Promote
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS

end-use
bldg scale recycled
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
ind cogen efficiency
cogen cogen
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing
one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
end-use
bldg scale recycled
CC ind
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm
ind cogen efficiency
cogen cogen
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Coal-fired CO2 displaced per dollar spent
on electrical services
end-use
bldg scale recycled
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind
ind cogen efficiency
cogen cogen
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

POLICY & MARKET TRANSFORMATION:
UTILITY DECOUPLING
Align utility and customer financial interests
to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency,
onsite and distributed energy and water
service opportunities.
Dr. Art Rosenfeld, CEC Amory Lovins, RMI Ralph Cavanagh, NRDC

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to
harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity 165 GW
Coal
Consumption
Power
New York Plants
California
[EPPs]
Californian’s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family
California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost
efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and
lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share
IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75
ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings
Envision 18 million coal railcars
that would wrap around the world
seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil
supertanker shipments per year.
Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –
113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.
SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800
TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.
Envision eliminating the need this century for:
AND 2,500 giant AND 1,674 AND 4.25
3.5 billion
offshore oil large nuclear million LNG
coal rail
platforms. reactors.
road cars. tanker shipments.

$1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value
$300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
[source: SafeClimate.net]

CFL factories displace Powerplants
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million
CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will
produce lighting services sufficient to displace several
billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments
used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.
source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

Less Large Power Plants & Mines
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines

Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All:
Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Efficiency Outcomes
Demand Facts
2 trillion kWh per year savings –
Industrial electric motor systems
equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be
consume 40% of electricity
built through 2030 worldwide.
worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in
China – over 7 trillion kWh per
$240 billion savings per decade.
year.
$200 to $400 billion benefits per
Retrofit savings of 30%, New
decade in avoided emissions of
savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.
GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive
Support SEEEM (Standards
market transformation strategy to promote efficient
for Energy Efficiency of
industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Electric Motor Systems)

ZERO NET ENERGY
GREEN BUILDINGS
The Costs and
Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings,
Public library – North Carolina A Report to
California’s
Sustainable
Building Task
Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700
per m2 net
present value
Oberlin College
Ecology Center,
Heinz Foundation
Ohio
Green Building, PA

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available
capacity to fuel -- 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million
vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons
per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5
million barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC,
90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx.
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and
Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met
simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on
roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of
buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of
new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of
total US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current electricity
could be supplied with PV systems
built in the “brown-fields”— the
estimated 2 million hectares of
abandoned industrial sites that
exist in our nation’s cities.
Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV
Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha
of land may be required for
agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium
growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens
intact ecosystems and biodiversity-
rich habitats.

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Cellulosic ethanol
Corn ethanol
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND
NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Bottom of the Pyramid Growth
Creating a World
Without Poverty
Social Business and the
future of Capitalism
Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most
Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty

2 billion people lack safe water
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

A new water disinfector for the
developing world’s poor
DESIGN CRITERIA
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp
disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters,
264 gallons, or 1 m3)
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, LBL, inventor
• Reliable, Mature components
• Can treat unpressurized water
• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
• Low maintenance: 4x per year
• No overdose risk
• Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
WaterHealth Intl device
water%202008.pdf

WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power
(Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)
This is an unique combination
of Grameen Bank and
Grameen Shakti’s
integrated effort for poverty
reduction.
• Solar PV System is being
used for mobile phone
charging.
• Telephone lady earns
US$100 per month from
this pay phone.
• The system also help her
children for their education

FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY

MOBILITY & ACCESS

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mptotten/slideshows
Thank you !

Global Web Mesh
Collective Intelligence in Action

Global Wired Mesh Resources
http://www.shirky.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
www.wikinomics.com/
The_Wealth_of_Networks
And incredible video at:
And incredible video at: And incredible video at:
http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/
www.youtube.com/watc www.youtube.com/watc
855937/
h?v=NgYE75gkzkM h?v=NgYE75gkzkM

5000 days ago Pre-Web
Pre-Commercial Internet

“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web”
collective
intelligence
published
content
published user user
content generated generated
content content
45 million global users 1 billion+ global users

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees,
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than
the Encyclopedia Britannica,
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer
editors and content authors,
Translating content into 150+ languages, and
Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus
http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are
impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide
watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo
oking-for-the-mouse.html
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per
year worth of peer participation.

Web3.0+
Semantically-linked RW web
Collective
1 trillion sites
intelligence
Smart Grid
published User generated
content content
3 billion global users
2010-2012

5000 days ago Pre-Web
5000 days from now Global Cloud Network
Pre-Commercial Internet

Classifying user-generated information
where every click is a datum
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:
Prevent Climate Catastrophe
Avert Mass Species Extinction
Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being

UNINTENDED MOLECULAR GEOENGINEERING
Wrapping Our Minds Around GHG Molecules

Waste as Nutrient
Every second, the sun produces 400 trillion TW -- more energy than
human civilizations have ever produced in history.

Information Bit Stream

Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms
continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar
panel locations.

Where PV systems stand in the USA 2002)
Where Solar PV systems Stand (USA (2002)
Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Solar Photovoltaics Focusing on Markets that
Photovoltaics are
Really Shine, NREL, 2002, www.nrel.gov/
cost-effective at today's
prices of about $6 to
$7 per watt.

Attributes of breakeven Solar PV systems
Compensation for power at retail
electric rates
• Tax credits
• Financing, leasing, and
depreciation options
• Net-metering options and/or
rate-based incentives
• Building credits for
architectural applications
• Willingness to pay for clean
power and innovation
• Quality of solar resource and
customer load match
• Progressive state government,
regulatory, and utility support.
Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing
PVs are cost-effective at $6 to $7 per watt.
on Markets that Really Shine, 2002, www.nrel.gov/

Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent
Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions
Retail-driven Scenario
Status Quo
1975-2000
USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2010-2050
• Lower energy
costs
• Lower price
DOE
$8 trillion
Environmental/
volatility
budget
losses price
$325
health
volatlity
• Lower
externalities
billion
$10+ trillion
2/3 Environmental
Dept of
efficiency & Health
Energy
$25 trillion solar, wind
externalities
energy costs biofuels
Military/
• Lower military
Security
4% for all & security
externalities
$10+ trillion
efficiency & 5%
externalities
all renewables
Outcomes Priorities Outcomes
Priorities
Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility
Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector
Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out
Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs
Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air &
Large Hydro industry damage sector water pollution

What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can Do
Supporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource
efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat
and power (CHP), solar PV, windpower, geothermal and biofuel wastes, ensures a continuous
pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower cost and
less polluting goods.
Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and
emergent opportunities.

Presentations & Publications by
Michael P Totten
www.slideshare.net/mptotten/slideshows
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