Totten Climate For Life Presentation 02 13 09 Duke Symposium Final Update

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"A Climate for Life" presentation by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater and Ecosystem Services, Conservation International, on Feb. 13, 2009, at the "A World in Conflict: Tacking …

"A Climate for Life" presentation by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Freshwater and Ecosystem Services, Conservation International, on Feb. 13, 2009, at the "A World in Conflict: Tacking Issues of Water, Energy and Biodiversity in the Developing World," held at Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Student International Discussion Group. Presentation makes case for viewing and treating these compartmentalized issues (climate, energy, water, biodiversity, poverty) from an inter-disciplinary, integrated perspective in order to avoid lost opportunities and capture synergistic, leveraging opportunities.

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  • 1. A Climate for Life presentation by Michael P. Totten Conservation International at the Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment's annual symposium February 13, 2009 quot;A World in Conflict: Tackling Issues of Water, Energy, and Biodiversity in the Developing Worldquot;
  • 3. NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
  • 4. A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
  • 5. Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere rs u o h 4 4 ry e v e 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
  • 6. 6°C
  • 7. $2.5 trillion almost a quarter of the US economy is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.
  • 8. Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
  • 9. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed: quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment.quot; MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008,
  • 10. Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2008 now 45GtCO2 2050 reduce to <10 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <4 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
  • 11. Century of Global Economic Growth Compared with Today yr yr / / 2% 3% x 7x 19
  • 12. The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,
  • 13. Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,
  • 14. Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions oil gas coal forests geothermal agriculture Assumes: 1% 2% 1% 5% biomass1% 5% 10% 1) Global economic bldgs EE growth 2-3% 15% per year all wind century long; 15% 2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains; transport EE 15% 3) Combined solar carbon cap & 15% carbon tax industry EE 15%
  • 15. “Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in Billion tons CO2 mitigation services available in 25 poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use 14 million hectares burned each year IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  • 16. 6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate
  • 17. Direct yields from tropical lands converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber: equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton. Sir Nicholas Stern Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options. Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by up to 130 ppm this century. CONTRASTING ACTIONS: $45 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants. The same amount of money would prevent the release of 6 times this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
  • 18. U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 Geological storage (CCS) vs mitigation cost annually Ecological storage (REDD) (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007) Carbon Mitigation Cost $ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation & Degradation $20 (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
  • 19. U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO2 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss Tropical Deforestation 2007 30 million acres burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions A win- win-win outcome
  • 20. 480 gallons per year 4.8 tons GHG emissions = (25 mpg x 12,000 miles per year) per year $48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation & Degradation (REDD) Adds 8.5 cents per gallon
  • 21. Mitigation Portfolio: Shrink, Green, & Offset GHG Footprint
  • 22. Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring wilderness, while helping people, species & climate
  • 23. Market Transformation: Steadily Declining Cap
  • 24. Ecuador collaborative offset projects Preserve habitat for threatened Andean Spectacled Bear, Howler Monkey, and Northern Naked Tailed Armadillo
  • 25. FCCB Forest Restoration for Climate, Community and Biodiversity
  • 26. Indonesia & Brazil No. 3 & 4 GHG Emitting Nations
  • 27. DOZEN CRITERIA Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system 1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? 2. Safe through the entire life cycle? 3. Clean through the entire lifespan? 4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility? 5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? 6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity? 7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality? 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time? 10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities? 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities? 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
  • 28. Uninteresting military target A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Fails gracefully, not catastro Promote Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically Affordable Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
  • 29. end-use bldg scale recycled nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008,
  • 30. How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity end-use bldg scale recycled CC ind nuclear coal CC gas wind farm ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008,
  • 31. Coal-fired CO2 displaced per dollar spent on electrical services end-use bldg scale recycled nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008,
  • 32. POLICY & MARKET TRANSFORMATION: UTILITY DECOUPLING Align utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency, onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities. Dr. Art Rosenfeld, CEC Amory Lovins, RMI Ralph Cavanagh, NRDC
  • 33. “Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants” For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Coal Consumption Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian’s have net savings of $1,000 per family California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  • 34. USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply $700 billion per year in energy bill savings Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year. Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year. Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
  • 35. CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs) BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years – 113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum. SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions. Envision eliminating the need this century for: AND 2,500 giant AND 1,674 AND 4.25 3.5 billion offshore oil large nuclear million LNG coal rail platforms. reactors. road cars. tanker shipments.
  • 36. $1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008,
  • 37. $10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value $300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account [source:]
  • 38. CFL factories displace Powerplants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps. source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991
  • 39. Less Large Power Plants & Mines More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines
  • 40. Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All: Supplier Chain Factories & Products Efficiency Outcomes Demand Facts 2 trillion kWh per year savings – Industrial electric motor systems equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be consume 40% of electricity built through 2030 worldwide. worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per $240 billion savings per decade. year. $200 to $400 billion benefits per Retrofit savings of 30%, New decade in avoided emissions of savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. GHGs, SO2 and NOx. SEEEM ( is a comprehensive Support SEEEM (Standards market transformation strategy to promote efficient for Energy Efficiency of industrial electric motor systems worldwide Electric Motor Systems)
  • 41. ZERO NET ENERGY GREEN BUILDINGS The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, Public library – North Carolina A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value Oberlin College Ecology Center, Heinz Foundation Ohio Green Building, PA
  • 42. Daylighting could displace 100s GWs Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
  • 43. High-E Windows displacing pipelines Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.
  • 44. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel -- 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx. Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07,
  • 45. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
  • 46. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab,;
  • 47. Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy,]
  • 48. Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977,
  • 49. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.
  • 50. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007,
  • 51. Bottom of the Pyramid Growth Creating a World Without Poverty Social Business and the future of Capitalism Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty
  • 52. 2 billion people lack safe water Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08,
  • 53. A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA • Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection • Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3) • Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, LBL, inventor • Reliable, Mature components • Can treat unpressurized water • Rapid throughput: 12 seconds • Low maintenance: 4x per year • No overdose risk • Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, WaterHealth Intl device water%202008.pdf
  • 54. WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08,
  • 55. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project,
  • 56. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project,
  • 57. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project,
  • 58. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project,
  • 59. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project,
  • 60. Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) This is an unique combination of Grameen Bank and Grameen Shakti’s integrated effort for poverty reduction. • Solar PV System is being used for mobile phone charging. • Telephone lady earns US$100 per month from this pay phone. • The system also help her children for their education
  • 63. mptotten/slideshows Thank you !
  • 64. Global Web Mesh Collective Intelligence in Action
  • 65. Global Wired Mesh Resources The_Wealth_of_Networks And incredible video at: And incredible video at: And incredible video at: 855937/ h?v=NgYE75gkzkM h?v=NgYE75gkzkM
  • 66. 5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet
  • 67. “the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web” collective intelligence published content published user user content generated generated content content 45 million global users 1 billion+ global users
  • 68. The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
  • 69. Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality. The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. oking-for-the-mouse.html One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
  • 70. Web3.0+ Semantically-linked RW web Collective 1 trillion sites intelligence Smart Grid published User generated content content 3 billion global users 2010-2012
  • 71. 5000 days ago Pre-Web 5000 days from now Global Cloud Network Pre-Commercial Internet
  • 72. Classifying user-generated information where every click is a datum Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
  • 73. Harnessing Collective Intelligence to: Prevent Climate Catastrophe Avert Mass Species Extinction Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being
  • 74. UNINTENDED MOLECULAR GEOENGINEERING Wrapping Our Minds Around GHG Molecules
  • 75. Waste as Nutrient Every second, the sun produces 400 trillion TW -- more energy than human civilizations have ever produced in history.
  • 76. Information Bit Stream
  • 77. Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
  • 78. Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
  • 79. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
  • 80. Where PV systems stand in the USA 2002) Where Solar PV systems Stand (USA (2002) Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Solar Photovoltaics Focusing on Markets that Photovoltaics are Really Shine, NREL, 2002, cost-effective at today's prices of about $6 to $7 per watt.
  • 81. Attributes of breakeven Solar PV systems Compensation for power at retail electric rates • Tax credits • Financing, leasing, and depreciation options • Net-metering options and/or rate-based incentives • Building credits for architectural applications • Willingness to pay for clean power and innovation • Quality of solar resource and customer load match • Progressive state government, regulatory, and utility support. Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing PVs are cost-effective at $6 to $7 per watt. on Markets that Really Shine, 2002,
  • 82. Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions Retail-driven Scenario Status Quo 1975-2000 USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2010-2050 • Lower energy costs • Lower price DOE $8 trillion Environmental/ volatility budget losses price $325 health volatlity • Lower externalities billion $10+ trillion 2/3 Environmental Dept of efficiency & Health Energy $25 trillion solar, wind externalities energy costs biofuels Military/ • Lower military Security 4% for all & security externalities $10+ trillion efficiency & 5% externalities all renewables Outcomes Priorities Outcomes Priorities Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air & Large Hydro industry damage sector water pollution
  • 83. What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can Do Supporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat and power (CHP), solar PV, windpower, geothermal and biofuel wastes, ensures a continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower cost and less polluting goods. Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and emergent opportunities.
  • 84. Presentations & Publications by Michael P Totten