TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIOHealthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth                        SOURCE              Michae...
Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
2050 Growth Scenarios
Asia Will Account for 70% of World’sAdded Capital Stock between 2030-2050
Engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies                           Asia’s march to prosperity will           ...
Asia will account for 55% of global output in 2050
Asia’s urban population will double by 2050
The world’s current youth cohort — 1.2 billion youngpeople ages 15 to 25 — is the largest in human historyThis “youth bulg...
Avoiding & Averting Traps
Outcome fraught with multiple risks & challengesAlmost all countries face the overarching challenge of governance    and i...
Projection Asia Energy Supply & Demand
Asia will lead global energy demand                           And energy-related                      GT                  ...
Get used to ridingPerfect Storms
Your Future – Business as Usual
Riding perfect storms for people, profit & planet
Why success always starts with failure
Riding the Perfect Storm meets Only the Paranoid Survive
Unprecedented  Challenges ofHistorical & Global    Magnitude
Planetary Boundaries TODAYExceeding the Safe Operating Space for HumanityRockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, ...
Planetary Boundaries 2150Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity                       CLIMATE                    ...
Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate                                extinction                       ...
Recommendations: Natural capital and poverty reduction                                         Indonesia          India   ...
US$ 6.6 trillion                                                                                               Estimated a...
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption         becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.CLOSING THE LOOP– Red...
Fishing down the Food Web
55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web    ...
More frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts
More frequent, severe, and prolonged wildfires
More frequent, severe, and prolonged floods
Multiple Cascading Social-Ecological CrisesCarl Folke, A ° sa Jansson, Johan Rockstro¨m, Per Olsson, Stephen R. Carpenter,...
What’s Left?
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year1950                                 2005 www.armsflow.org/
UnendingResource Wars &Conflicts
MMN, Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the USA, American EconomicsReview, 2011; E...
LINFEN, CHINA the most polluted city on earth. Where, if one puts  laundry out to dry, it willturn black before finishing ...
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
Past planetary mass extinctions                                                                    Catastrophestriggered b...
Top 15 nation populationsexposed to sea level rise today & 2070
Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (pop)Ranked in terms of POPULATION exposed to coastal flooding in the2070s (including...
Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (assets)Ranked in terms of ASSETS exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s(including ...
MIT Temperature Study10°                ←>0%   2009 MIT Study:• Danger                  95% chance that “Business-        ...
Negative Tipping PointsSource: Timothy M. Lenton , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang Lucht,Stefan Rah...
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "...
Social Cost of CarbonFrank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Costof Carbo...
Target CO2:                                         < 350 ppm            To preserve creation, the planet on              ...
<350 ppm is Possible, But…                                Essential Requirements1. Quick Coal Phase-Out Necessary All coal...
Where the world needs to go:                  energy-related CO2 emissions per capita                                     ...
The path towards sustainable consumption:      Responding to increasing demand without inflating ecological footprintsSwit...
Can WE  Avert Multiple Catastrophes,Avoid Irreversible Consequences,      and Make the Shift toHealthy, Sustainable Econom...
Ken Caldeira
GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering     GENETICS        AUTOROBOTICS     INFORMATICS      NANOTECH
CLIMATE in 4“Bumper Stickers”  Your grandchildren’s   lives are important    We need to buyinsurance for the planetClimate...
Your grandchildren’s              lives are important           Using the right Discount RateClimate Change is a long-term...
Climate damages are too                valuable to have pricesAmong the most important impacts of unchecked climate change...
Some costs are better                     than othersWhile the benefits of climate protection involve the priceless values...
We need to buy                                   insurance for the planet   The probability of a residential fire is less ...
Insurance is the response to the desire     to avoid or control worse-case scenarios  Probability of house burning  down? ...
While non-linear complexadaptive systems pervadeexistence, humans have astrong propensity to thinkand act as if life is li...
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3        knowledge relationships of knowledge                             ...
David Snowden, The Cynefinframework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/
David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/
David Snowden, The Cynefinframework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/
http://www.envirobase.info/
Governance / values                                                    Rights / duties                                    ...
Getting to Yes!! Riding the Perfect Storm with triple strength
TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO        SOURCE
Summary Points                 The Role of Finance Related to              Climate Security and Energy Security“Low Hangin...
Triple S Portfolio
Adopting Cost & Risk-Resilient Portfolio     Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become            climate pos...
Promoting Triple S Portfoliothrough Innovative Policies       1)SHRINKING - CONTINUOUS EFFICIENCY        Adopt decoupling+...
Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
Roles and responsibilities of actors in driving                       sustainable consumptionWBCSD, A Path to Sustainable ...
sustainable   consumptionWBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11
IBM O’Driscoll
NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214...
NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214...
via Emergent Collaboration Networks
Portfolio Part 1      SHRINKING         ecological footprints(emissions, pollutants, waste, water, energy,    land, & capi...
$1.2 billion savings over5 years on energy, water    & chemical costs.      670% ROI  So the financial incentive is there,...
STMicro Carbon Positive       & Revenue Positive    SHRINK:    Reduce total emissions of CO2 due to our    energy consumpt...
CO2 reductions at                           negative cost Dow slashed energy intensity by ~40%  between 1990-2005. $9.4 ...
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020                                               Breakdown by abatement type         ...
Rob Walton, Chairman, Walmart   Mike Duke CEO, Walmart
Our License to Grow isthreatened  2004 in the Bull’s eye
60,000 suppliers in 70 countries               100,000 product lines                         Walmart’s World1.7 million as...
70% Walmart Imports from China – 2008    25% from 14 other nations ( )
Most of Walmart’s impact & cost is imbedded in products                               Water    Packaging                  ...
On Climate Change Action“We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions. This used tobe controversial, but ...
On Climate Change ActionWe are committed to aggressively investing $500 million annually intechnologies and innovation to ...
On Climate Change ActionWe are committed to the following:  Assisting in the design and  support of a green company  progr...
On Climate Change Action    “You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everything    around you is changing. To succe...
In 2006, Walmart set a goal ofreducing energy consumption& CO2 emissions in the USA byselling 100 million compactfluoresce...
New Goal to Supersede CFLs with LEDs                                                                    LED               ...
LED lighting could displace 100s GWsAugmenting natural daylighting with ultra-efficient LEDs offer capital andoperating sa...
Walmart’s Biggest Competitor             High Oil & Utility PricesAggressively pursuing regulatory and policy changes that...
Cost of new delivered electricity (US¢/kWh)                                               CCS                             ...
1¢/kWh    93 kg             Coal-fired CO2             emissions displaced             per dollar spent on             ele...
US$26.3 trillion       global cumulative electric utility      infrastructure investment needed           between 2007 and...
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from   revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants       ...
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS           Now use 1/2 global power30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI
Motor Market Transformation     Path to Multi- Trillion Dollar Savings   Demand Facts                               Effici...
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”    Less Need for Coal Mines & Power PlantsLess Coal Power Plants Less Coal Ra...
Walmart is on the path to tripling                                              its truck fleet efficiency.               ...
2.7 km/l –                    529 million liters                       [6.4 mpg –                     140 million gal]    ...
40,000 hectares                                                        2.7 km/l – 529 million liters When the truck fleet ...
Land- & Water-Conserving, Oil-Reducing,                    Emission-Preventing and Money Saving                        Cos...
HOW ENERGY EFFICIENT ARE YOUR BUILDINGs?         Typical Energy usage Commercial Building                                 ...
ASHRAE--Chiller Plant Efficiency          New Technology       High-efficiency Conventional                     Chiller Pl...
Typical Chiller Plant -- Needs Improvement                           (1.2 kW per ton)Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
High Performance Chiller Plant (0.56 kW/t)Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
HOW? Bigger pipes, 45° angles, Smaller chillersSource: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
Financial Benefits                                                       Before                AfterCooling TonHr/Week    ...
Daily System Report – August 2009         Real time monitoring with calibrated smart sensorsSource: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
Simple Guide to retrofit success1. Ask for 0.60 kW/RT or better for chiller plant.2. Ask for performance guarantee backed ...
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE IF Cooling Load in kW per ton:Typical: ~1.2 kW/ton or 114% moreBest: ~0.56 kW/ton   Cost of overbuild...
ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE  Cooling Load in kW per ton?Code: ~0.85 kW/ton or 50% moreBest: ~0.56 kW/ton   Cost of overbuilding &...
Portfolio Part 2       SHIFTINGTo green power and fuel options that are both climate & biodiversity positive, and have the...
Annual global energy consumption by humans                             Oil                                                ...
Attributes of Green Energy Services                    Dozen Desirable Criteria1. Economically affordable including poores...
Uninteresting military target          A Defensible Green                                                               Ro...
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere      worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never   failing,...
SOLAR REFLECTORSOver 4000 Walmart stores with      white roofs, and standard             practice since 1990Reflects away ...
World of Solar Reflecting Cities   $2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction                     100 m2Ha...
OnshoreWind Trillion$
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles                                              Solar-battery                     ...
Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to    the grid over an agreed initial averag...
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-GeneratedElectricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
Myth 1:PV use more energy to make than they     produce over their lifetime     For cells in production now the     energy...
Myth 2:  We do not have Enough Raw Materials• Si - 2nd most abundant element  in Earth’s crust• The amorphous silicon cell...
Myth 3:        Solar Doesn’t Create Many JobsJobs created with everymillion dollars spenton:– oil and gas exploration:  1....
Myth 3:          Solar requires too much land areaIn the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.Every kWh of...
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%           total US electricity from brownfields        90% of America’s current   ...
The Global market for solar cells,Washington Post, December 16,2011, Sources: PhotonInternational, Earth PolicyInstitute, ...
• The price of solar panels fell steadily for 40 years.• Since January 2008 German solar modules prices dropped from €3 to...
China Economics of Commercial BIPV            Building-Integrated Photovoltaics                                           ...
China EconomicsCommercial BIPV             Economics of of Commercial BIPV                                                ...
Daylighting could displace 100s GWs          Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,          consume half of a c...
High-E Windows displacing pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in theU.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan...
120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China            Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all  ...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LAwww.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA
Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide
The African market for off-grid lighting products is projected to achieve40 to 50 % annual sales growth, with 5-6 million ...
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages...
Portfolio Part 3   SOURCING OFFSETS  remaining footprints by prevention of threatenedtropical forests (REDD+) and other in...
Protecting CriticalWilderness to OffsetOperation FootprintsIn 2005, Wal-Mart adopted thegoal to permanently offset theland...
High Quality   Multi-Benefit
Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern...
Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction                       Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion ton...
Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive                       Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion ...
Geological storage (CCS) vs                 U.S. fossil Electricity CO2           Ecological storage (REDD)               ...
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007        $7.50 per ton CO22.4 billion tons CO2 emissions         1/2 cent per kWh           ...
TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO PARTNERS             SOURCE
Amory Lovins, select publications 1976 to 2012
Convergences & Emergences               Vehicle-to-GridConnect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
hwww.techonomy.com/#te10www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_EKZvb7gc8                                      www.youtube.com/watch?v=l...
Buildings
Commercial building energy efficiency supply curve                by end use, 2050
Energy savings for integrative design cases            (new residential)
Zero Emissions Home and Electric CarShannon Smith, In Germany, house powers car, SmartPlanet, December 30, 2011, www.smart...
Beddington Zero Energy Design, UK
Cradle-to-Cradle   McDonough   Flow House,   New Orleanshttp://www.greenpacks.org/2009/07/16/william-mcdonough-partners-co...
Venlo, NL – First Cradle-to-Cradle region in the Worldhttp://sustainablecities.dk/en/city-projects/cases/venlo-first-cradl...
Utilities
2050 installed capacity by case
Technology capital cost* projections, 2010-2050*Renewable costs exclude tax credits & similar subsidies; nonrenewable cost...
U.S. wind & solar PV capital cost trends 1976-2010
Near-term cost reductions for ground-mounted PV System
Present value costs of the U.S. electricity system 2010-2060
Historic & projected CO2 emissions from the      U.S. electricity sector, 1990-2050
Industry
Transport
Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail PriceLightweight autos needn’t cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleetshows little or no...
Traffic fatalities, vehicle weight changes, and vehicle size           based on 1999 U.S. fleet on the road    Crash-safet...
Comparison of carbon fiber vs. steel manufacturing costsAutomotive manufacturing costs can be cut by 80% with carbon fiber...
U.S. motor gasoline consumption with & withoutpolicy change and accelerated retooling, 2010-2050
Cost reduction potential of powertrains
Cumulative volume-based learning curves for battery packs and fuel cell systems
U.S. installed wind & solar power capacities         and projections, 1990-2050
Hourly operability in a high-penetration renewables scenario
Hourly operability on a microgrid
Variable renewable output (hourly)
Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a SustainableFuture by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –  The Power in the Photon Bit stream
Earth receives more solar energyevery 90 minutes than humanityconsumes all year
Market share of different PV technologies               1999-2010
BIPV (mccabe)
FINANCING
Innovative Solar Financing Options  Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops      100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,    WATER, FUELS OR E...
Catalyzing solar smart poly-microgridsContinuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energypro...
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power AuctionsSmart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar ...
Sierpinski ―Pyramid‖                  Fractal Market ModelSelf-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern...
Self-limited plasmonic welding                        of silver nanowire junctions  When two nanowires lay crisscrossed li...
Nanoshell whispering galleries improve thin solar panels Using spherical nanoshell structures achieved absorption comparab...
Quantum-dot solar PV cellsQuantum dot solar cells use quantum dots as the photovoltaic material, as opposedto bulk materia...
Collodial-quantum-dot PVs using atomic-ligand passivation                                              16 of the inorganic...
Solar cell nanodomes and plasmonicsTitania within the solar cell is imprinted into a honeycomb pattern by the siliconnanod...
Nanoshell whispering galleries            Optical simulations of Silicon spherical nanoshellsYan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris ...
GrapheneGraphene is an allotrope of carbon, whosestructure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of sp2-bonded carbon atoms that...
Solar cell                                                   nano cones                                                 Th...
Cerium Solar reactor (Haile caltech)Nano pillar solar cell arrays                                Solar roll 50 sq meters(A...
Urban Solar Canopies
Solar Ivy
Tensile Solar Structures
OnshoreWind Trillion$
Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to    the grid over an agreed initial averag...
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-GeneratedElectricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles                                              Solar-battery                     ...
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains                                                 Figures of Merit   ...
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double    farm/ranch income with 30x less land area                                           ...
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of          Rural Farm and Ranch Income                                           US F...
Potential Synergisms                   Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:1) Restoring the deep-root...
Grasslands of the WorldSource: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html
Offshore Wind Trillion$
China will construct 5 GW of offshore wind  projects by 2015 and 30 GW by 2030.
China Qingdao 5 MW wind turbine   Vesta 7 MW wind turbine
Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions                                                              Tucuruí dam, BrazilSt. Louis VL, K...
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with                  Combined Cycle Natural Gas                         ...
Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies
Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies
Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds                               Billion $ 2008 constant                          90 ...
2 billion people lack safe waterAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water fo...
Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking  dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach            adulthood...
4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of          dollars in lo...
A new water disinfector for the                                                 developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA• M...
WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.                          Other Treatment OptionsAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions t...
WaterHealth International  The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of  pathog...
WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of o...
Mobility Services & AcccessAmount of space required to transport the same number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle.   M...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slid...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slides to Singapore universities and business schools 2012

529 views

Published on

Slides from lectures and seminars given at Singapore universities and business schools (NUS, SMU, INSEAD) on how Asia Pacific region faces mega-catastrophic socio-ecological challenges that can be largely prevented and resolved through aggressive, ambitious pursuit of clean tech, green economic investment opportunities (e.g, end-use efficiency, solar power, wind power).

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
529
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
8
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slides to Singapore universities and business schools 2012

  1. 1. TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIOHealthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth SOURCE Michael P. Totten, Senior Advisor, CI Singapore Presentation at Asia Research Institute, NUS February 09, 2012
  2. 2. Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap
  3. 3. 2050 Growth Scenarios
  4. 4. Asia Will Account for 70% of World’sAdded Capital Stock between 2030-2050
  5. 5. Engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies Asia’s march to prosperity will be led by 7 economies, 2 already developed and 6 fast growing middle income converging economies. Between 2010 and 2050, these 7 economies would account for nearly 90% of total GDP growth in Asia more than half of global GDP growth.
  6. 6. Asia will account for 55% of global output in 2050
  7. 7. Asia’s urban population will double by 2050
  8. 8. The world’s current youth cohort — 1.2 billion youngpeople ages 15 to 25 — is the largest in human historyThis “youth bulge” wraps itself around the center of the globe,with nearly 90 % of today’s young people growing up in developingcountries where barriers to opportunity remain high.
  9. 9. Avoiding & Averting Traps
  10. 10. Outcome fraught with multiple risks & challengesAlmost all countries face the overarching challenge of governance and institutional capacity.Large and increasing inequities within countries could undermine social cohesion and political stability. Individual countries risk falling into Middle Income Trap due to a host of domestic economic, social and political challenges.Rising disparities across countries and sub-regions could destabilize the region and halt its growth momentum.Intense competition for finite natural resources (energy, water and fertile land) unleashed by this growth, as the newly affluent Asians aspire to higher standards of living.Climate Destabilization with increased natural disaster), as well as associated water shortages, could threaten agricultural production, coastal populations and major urban areas.
  11. 11. Projection Asia Energy Supply & Demand
  12. 12. Asia will lead global energy demand And energy-related GT CO2 emissions
  13. 13. Get used to ridingPerfect Storms
  14. 14. Your Future – Business as Usual
  15. 15. Riding perfect storms for people, profit & planet
  16. 16. Why success always starts with failure
  17. 17. Riding the Perfect Storm meets Only the Paranoid Survive
  18. 18. Unprecedented Challenges ofHistorical & Global Magnitude
  19. 19. Planetary Boundaries TODAYExceeding the Safe Operating Space for HumanityRockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K.Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safeoperating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
  20. 20. Planetary Boundaries 2150Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity CLIMATE CHANGERockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K.Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safeoperating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
  21. 21. Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate extinction Species
  22. 22. Recommendations: Natural capital and poverty reduction Indonesia India BrazilEcosystem services 99 million 352 million 20 milliondependency 21% 10% 16%Ecosystem services as a 90%% of classical GDP 79% 84% 47% 11% 25%Ecosystem services as a 53%% of ―GDP of the Poor‖ 75% 89% Ecosystem servicesSource: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB 09.02.2012 26
  23. 23. US$ 6.6 trillion Estimated annual environmental costs from global human activity equating to 11% of global GDP in 2008 US$ 2.2 trillion Cost of environmental damage caused by the world’s 3,000 largest publicly-listed companies in 2008. >50% The proportion of company earnings that could be at risk from environmental costs in an equity portfolio weighted according to the MSCI All Country World Index.Universal Ownership: Why environmental externalities matter to institutional investors, Trucost Plc, commissioned by UN-backed Principles for ResponsibleInvestment (PRI) and UNEP Finance Initiative, 2011, www.trucost.com
  24. 24. Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
  25. 25. Fishing down the Food Web
  26. 26. 55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web Acidifying Oceans Global Circulation Models (GCM)Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
  27. 27. More frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts
  28. 28. More frequent, severe, and prolonged wildfires
  29. 29. More frequent, severe, and prolonged floods
  30. 30. Multiple Cascading Social-Ecological CrisesCarl Folke, A ° sa Jansson, Johan Rockstro¨m, Per Olsson, Stephen R. Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Cre´pin, Gretchen Daily, Kjell Danell, Jonas Ebbesson, Thomas Elmqvist, VictorGalaz, Fredrik Moberg, Ma°ns Nilsson, Henrik O¨ sterblom, Elinor Ostrom, A ° sa Persson, Garry Peterson, Stephen Polasky, Will Steffen, Brian Walker, Frances Westley, Reconnecting to theBiosphere, AMBIO (2011) 40:719–738, DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
  31. 31. What’s Left?
  32. 32. A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
  33. 33. Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year1950 2005 www.armsflow.org/
  34. 34. UnendingResource Wars &Conflicts
  35. 35. MMN, Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the USA, American EconomicsReview, 2011; Epstein et al, NewYork Academy of Sciences, 2010
  36. 36. LINFEN, CHINA the most polluted city on earth. Where, if one puts laundry out to dry, it willturn black before finishing drying. Spending one day in Linfen is equivalent to smoking 3 packs of cigarettes
  37. 37. Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
  38. 38. Past planetary mass extinctions Catastrophestriggered by high CO2 >550ppm Where we will be by 2100 900ppm Climate Parts per Million CO2 TODAY: 387PPM
  39. 39. Top 15 nation populationsexposed to sea level rise today & 2070
  40. 40. Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (pop)Ranked in terms of POPULATION exposed to coastal flooding in the2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change)and showing present-day exposure
  41. 41. Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (assets)Ranked in terms of ASSETS exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s(including both climate change and socioeconomic change) andshowing present-day exposure
  42. 42. MIT Temperature Study10° ←>0% 2009 MIT Study:• Danger 95% chance that “Business- as-usual” temperature increase will exceed 3.5ºC in 2095; and a 50% chance temperature will exceed 5ºC!
  43. 43. Negative Tipping PointsSource: Timothy M. Lenton , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang Lucht,Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in the Earthsclimate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, www.pnas.org/.
  44. 44. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed: "rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
  45. 45. Social Cost of CarbonFrank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Costof Carbon, 2011, Stockholm Environment Institute & Tufts Univ., www.e3network.org
  46. 46. Target CO2: < 350 ppm To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developedJames Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
  47. 47. <350 ppm is Possible, But… Essential Requirements1. Quick Coal Phase-Out Necessary All coal emissions halted in 20 years2. No Unconventional Fossil Fuels Tar sands, Oil shale, Methane hydrates3. Don’t Pursue Last Drops of Oil Polar regions, Deep ocean, Pristine land James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1
  48. 48. Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita >$/GDP/capSource: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
  49. 49. The path towards sustainable consumption: Responding to increasing demand without inflating ecological footprintsSwitchAsia, Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption in Asia, Consumer Book No. 3, citing WWF 2006,
  50. 50. Can WE Avert Multiple Catastrophes,Avoid Irreversible Consequences, and Make the Shift toHealthy, Sustainable Economies?
  51. 51. Ken Caldeira
  52. 52. GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering GENETICS AUTOROBOTICS INFORMATICS NANOTECH
  53. 53. CLIMATE in 4“Bumper Stickers” Your grandchildren’s lives are important We need to buyinsurance for the planetClimate damages are too valuable to have prices Some costs are better than others Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?
  54. 54. Your grandchildren’s lives are important Using the right Discount RateClimate Change is a long-term problem over many centuries, witha non-zero probability of catastrophic , irreversible events andcredible worst cases involving the end of much of human andother life on the planet.Discount rates based on market interest rates ,or rate of return onfinancial investments, are more appropriate for shorter terminvestments with an average pattern of market risks.Investments in climate protection, however, bear a closerresemblance to insurance, because it is a risk-reducing investment. Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?
  55. 55. Climate damages are too valuable to have pricesAmong the most important impacts of unchecked climate changeare increased losses of human lives. Many cost-benefit analysesassign an income-based value of a life.But any price for lives, high or low, creates the misleadingimpression that lives can be traded for other things of comparablevalue. A policy that kills 100 people now in order to save 300 otherlives 10 years from now is not equally successful: there is no way tocompensate the 100 people who paid the initial cost.As Kant put it centuries ago, some things have a price, or relativeworth, while other things have a dignity, or inner worth. Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?
  56. 56. Some costs are better than othersWhile the benefits of climate protection involve the priceless valuesof human life, nature, and the future, the costs consist of producingand buying goods and services, i.e., things that have prices.In the SHORT run, economic theories of market equilibrium oftendeny existence of costless or negative-cost opportunities foremissions reductions;In the MEDIUM term, the same theories overlook the employmentand other benefits that result from climate policies;In the LONG term, the most important effect is the pace ofinnovation in energy technologies, another subject on whichconventional economics has little to offer. Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?
  57. 57. We need to buy insurance for the planet The probability of a residential fire is less than half a percent, yet mortgages require fire insurance. The worst climate catastrophe is inescapably unknowable – but current knowledge indicates the 99th percentile of climate sensitivity parameters could be 10°C or higher. “such high temperatures have not been seen for hundreds of millions of years…it would effectively destroy planet Earth as we know it. At a minimum this would trigger mass species extinctions and biosphere ecosystem disintegration matching or exceeding the immense planetary die-offs associated with a handful of such previous geoclimate mega-catastrophes in Earth’s history.”Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?, citing Martin Weitzman
  58. 58. Insurance is the response to the desire to avoid or control worse-case scenarios Probability of house burning down? Less than 1% YET >80% homeowners buy hazard insuranceProbability of catastrophicclimate disasters? Over 50%YET>Half of USA essentially sayscannot afford climate insurance
  59. 59. While non-linear complexadaptive systems pervadeexistence, humans have astrong propensity to thinkand act as if life is linear,uncertainty is controllable,the future free of surprises,and planning is predictableand compartmentalizedinto silos.Normal distributions areassumed, fat-tail futuresare ignored.
  60. 60. Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames Natural system Technical system Social systemBrugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
  61. 61. David Snowden, The Cynefinframework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/
  62. 62. David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/
  63. 63. David Snowden, The Cynefinframework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/
  64. 64. http://www.envirobase.info/
  65. 65. Governance / values Rights / duties Will networks ETHICAL CAPITAL Arts Finance Sciences Competence Knowledge networks Power networks EPISTEMIC PRACTICAL CAPITAL CAPITAL Collective Intelligence CULTURAL BIOPHYSICAL CAPITAL CAPITAL Messages Equipment / technology Medias Health / environment Documentary networks Bodily networks SOCIAL CAPITAL Trust Social roles Personal networksPierre Levy, 2008, Beyond Semantic Web, Semantic Space, WKD Conference
  66. 66. Getting to Yes!! Riding the Perfect Storm with triple strength
  67. 67. TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO SOURCE
  68. 68. Summary Points The Role of Finance Related to Climate Security and Energy Security“Low Hanging Fruit that keeps growing back” now offer amulti-trillion dollar global pool of savings for companiesand institutions, with high ROIs, and myriad ancillaryvalues and co-benefits beyond climate/energy securityElectric, Gas & Water Utilities incented to deliver least-cost, least-risk utility services to the point of use could besource of tens of trillions of dollars of financeSourcing standards-based, multiple-benefits conservationcarbon offsets (CCB) is a key part of a cost & risk-minimizing portfolio for addressing multiple securities(climate, energy, economic, ecosystem services, conflicts)
  69. 69. Triple S Portfolio
  70. 70. Adopting Cost & Risk-Resilient Portfolio Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become climate positive and revenue positive Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to SuccessAmbitious, Continuous Protecting Smart Green Power Efficiency Gains Ecosystem Services
  71. 71. Promoting Triple S Portfoliothrough Innovative Policies 1)SHRINKING - CONTINUOUS EFFICIENCY Adopt decoupling+ and comprehensive IRP for delivering utility services to the point of use at least cost & risk, fully including end-use efficiency improvements and onsite/distributed generation 2)SHIFTING – GREEN/SMART ENERGY Select only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts 3)SOURCING - ECOSYSTEM OFFSETS Add standards-based (CCB) carbon mitigation options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits (climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and promotion of community sustainable development)
  72. 72. Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
  73. 73. Roles and responsibilities of actors in driving sustainable consumptionWBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11
  74. 74. sustainable consumptionWBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11
  75. 75. IBM O’Driscoll
  76. 76. NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf
  77. 77. NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf
  78. 78. via Emergent Collaboration Networks
  79. 79. Portfolio Part 1 SHRINKING ecological footprints(emissions, pollutants, waste, water, energy, land, & capital) through aggressive, ambitious and continuous efficiency gains
  80. 80. $1.2 billion savings over5 years on energy, water & chemical costs. 670% ROI So the financial incentive is there, but as CEO Pasquale Pistorio stressed, it’s not enough. “If the chief executive is not totally committed, it won’t succeed,” Pasquale Pistorio, CEO, STMicro, 1987-2005
  81. 81. STMicro Carbon Positive & Revenue Positive SHRINK: Reduce total emissions of CO2 due to our energy consumption (tons of CO2 per production unit) by 5% per year: SHIFT: Adopt whenever possible renewable energy sources of wind, hydroelectric, geothermic, photovoltaic, and thermal solar. Between 1998-2010 STMicro SOURCE: planted 10 million trees in Compensate the remaining direct CO2 reforestation programs in emissions through reforestation or other Morocco, Australia, USA, France carbon sequestration methods, to reach and Italy (9,000 ha total). CO2 direct emissions neutrality by 2015. 179,000 tons of CO2 sequestered.Source: STMicroelectronics, Sustainability Report 2010, Our culture of Sustainable Excellence in Practice,www.st.com/internet/com/CORPORATE_RESOURCES/FINANCIAL/FINANCIAL_REPORT/ST_2010_sustainability_report.pdf
  82. 82. CO2 reductions at negative cost Dow slashed energy intensity by ~40% between 1990-2005. $9.4 billion savings between 1994-2010 940% ROI
  83. 83. CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low-carbon energy supplyZero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 fordeveloping countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or about half the €215billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
  84. 84. Rob Walton, Chairman, Walmart Mike Duke CEO, Walmart
  85. 85. Our License to Grow isthreatened 2004 in the Bull’s eye
  86. 86. 60,000 suppliers in 70 countries 100,000 product lines Walmart’s World1.7 million associates 138 million customers every week 8,500-plus stores and clubs
  87. 87. 70% Walmart Imports from China – 2008 25% from 14 other nations ( )
  88. 88. Most of Walmart’s impact & cost is imbedded in products Water Packaging Indirect Impact = 92% Marine Agriculture Factories
  89. 89. On Climate Change Action“We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions. This used tobe controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming.“ “We believe every company has a responsibility to reduce GHG as quickly as it can. Wal-Mart can help restore balance to climate systems, reduce greenhouse gases, save money for our customers, and reduce Lee Scott, CEO dependence on oil.” 21st Century Leadership Presentation Nov. 24, 2005
  90. 90. On Climate Change ActionWe are committed to aggressively investing $500 million annually intechnologies and innovation to do the following: Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and Distribution Center base around the world by 20 percent w/in 7 years. Designing and opening prototype stores 25-30 % more efficient and 30% fewer GHG emissions within the next 4 years. Increasing fleet efficiency 25% in 3 years, and doubling efficiency in the next 10 years. Sharing all learning in technology with the world, including our competitors (the more people who can utilize this type of technology the larger the market and more we can save our customers)
  91. 91. On Climate Change ActionWe are committed to the following: Assisting in the design and support of a green company program in China, where Walmart would show preference to those suppliers and their factories involved in such a program. Initiating a program in the U.S. Lee Scott, then- that shows preference to president and CEO of suppliers who set their own goals Walmart , speaking to and aggressively reduce their 1000 Suppliers in China, own emissions. October 2008
  92. 92. On Climate Change Action “You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everything around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.” Sam Walton, founder “These commitments are a first step. To address climate change we need to cut emissions worldwide. We know that these commitments won’t even maintain our fast growing company’s overall emissions at current levels. There is more to do, we are2010 Sustainability report 2011 Sustainability report committed to doing our part.” Lee Scott, CEO 21st Century Leadership Presentation Nov. 24, 2005
  93. 93. In 2006, Walmart set a goal ofreducing energy consumption& CO2 emissions in the USA byselling 100 million compactfluorescent light bulbs (CFLs)by the end of 2007.Walmart exceeded that goal byselling 137 million.By the end of 2010, Walmarthad sold more than 460million CFLs.
  94. 94. New Goal to Supersede CFLs with LEDs LED light- emitting“You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everythingaround you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.” diodes Sam Walton, founder
  95. 95. LED lighting could displace 100s GWsAugmenting natural daylighting with ultra-efficient LEDs offer capital andoperating savings, as well as dramatic reductions in Mercury emissions
  96. 96. Walmart’s Biggest Competitor High Oil & Utility PricesAggressively pursuing regulatory and policy changes that willcreate incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency andlow or no GHG sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers tointegrating these sources into the power grid.
  97. 97. Cost of new delivered electricity (US¢/kWh) CCS US current average nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  98. 98. 1¢/kWh 93 kg Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services 2¢ 47Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  99. 99. US$26.3 trillion global cumulative electric utility infrastructure investment needed between 2007 and 2030. 12.7 trillion kWh Additional generation by 2030Source: IEA, in 2007 US$; GEF & Global Smart Energy. 2008. The Electricity Economy,http://www.globalenvironmentfund.com/data/uploads/The%20Electricity%20Economy.pdf
  100. 100. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Consumption Coal Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian‟s have net savings of $1,000 per family California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  101. 101. ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS Now use 1/2 global power30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI
  102. 102. Motor Market Transformation Path to Multi- Trillion Dollar Savings Demand Facts Efficiency OutcomesIndustrial electric motor systems 2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal toconsume 40% of electricity 1/4th all coal plants to be built throughworldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China 2030 worldwide.– over 7 trillion kWh per year. $240 billion savings per decade.Retrofit savings of 30%, New savingsof 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. $200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx. Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market Efficiency of Electric transformation strategy to promote efficient Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide
  103. 103. More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Need for Coal Mines & Power PlantsLess Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines
  104. 104. Walmart is on the path to tripling its truck fleet efficiency. Over the past 2 years Walmart replaced ~2/3rd of their fleet with more efficient tractors.Achieved 65% reduction in fuel per ton km overpast 5 years.In 2010, Walmart delivered 57 million morecases, while driving 79 million fewer km.Avoiding ~40,000 t/CO2 -- equivalent to taking7,600 U.S. cars off the road.Source; Building the Next Generation Walmart…Responsibility,2011 Global Responsibility report
  105. 105. 2.7 km/l – 529 million liters [6.4 mpg – 140 million gal] Land required if Wal-Mart Class 8 large truck fleet Switched from Fossil Diesel to121,000 hectares BioDiesel from Oil Palm Plantations
  106. 106. 40,000 hectares 2.7 km/l – 529 million liters When the truck fleet achieves triple fuel efficiency 5.5 km/l – 265 million liters 2004 2011 8 km/l – 176 million liters
  107. 107. Land- & Water-Conserving, Oil-Reducing, Emission-Preventing and Money Saving Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency $70 $60 $50per barrel cost $40 $65 $30 $20 $15 $10 $- biodiesel truck efficiency
  108. 108. HOW ENERGY EFFICIENT ARE YOUR BUILDINGs? Typical Energy usage Commercial Building Tropical Climate (Cooling All Year Round) Others Equipment 4% 8% Lift/Escalator 5% Lighting Space Cooling 18% 60% Ventilation 5%Data is for buildings in hot and humid climate like Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, etc
  109. 109. ASHRAE--Chiller Plant Efficiency New Technology High-efficiency Conventional Chiller Plants with Older Chiller All-Variable Speed Optimized Code Based Correctable Design or Plants Chiller Plants Chiller Plants Chiller Plants Operational Problems EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR NEEDS IMPROVEMENTkW/ton 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 C.O.P. (7.0) (5.9) (5.0) (4.4) (3.9) (3.5) (3.2) (2.9) AVERAGE ANNUAL CHILLER PLANT EFFICIENCY IN KW/TON (C.O.P.) (Input energy includes chillers, condenser pumps, tower fans and chilled water pumping) Based on electrically driven centrifugal chiller plants in comfort conditioning applications with 42F (5.6C) nominal chilled water supply temperature and open cooling towers sized for 85F (29.4C) maximum entering condenser water temperature and 20% excess capacity. Local Climate adjustment for North American climates is +/- 0.05 kW/ton 0.59 typical Trane GuarantySource: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
  110. 110. Typical Chiller Plant -- Needs Improvement (1.2 kW per ton)Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
  111. 111. High Performance Chiller Plant (0.56 kW/t)Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
  112. 112. HOW? Bigger pipes, 45° angles, Smaller chillersSource: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
  113. 113. Financial Benefits Before AfterCooling TonHr/Week 80,000 80,000System kWH/Week 152,000 47,200kWh/TonH 1.90 0.59Energy Savings in % 68.95%Energy Savings in kWH / Year 5,449,600Energy Savings in $/Year @ $0.20/KWH $1,089,920Water usage per year (M3) 0 34,682Water Charge per year (New Water @ $1.0/M3) $34,682Estimated Total $ Savings per Year $1,055,238Annual Reduction in Carbon Emission per year (Tones) 2,724,800 ROI = 29%. Energy Savings over 15 years = S$15M
  114. 114. Daily System Report – August 2009 Real time monitoring with calibrated smart sensorsSource: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
  115. 115. Simple Guide to retrofit success1. Ask for 0.60 kW/RT or better for chiller plant.2. Ask for performance guarantee backed by clear financial penalties in event of performance shortfall.3. Ask for accurate Measurement & Verification system of at least +-5% accuracy in accordance to international standards of ARI-550 & ASHRAE guides 14P & 22.4. Ask for online internet access to monitor the plant performance.5. Ask for track record.Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore
  116. 116. ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE IF Cooling Load in kW per ton:Typical: ~1.2 kW/ton or 114% moreBest: ~0.56 kW/ton Cost of overbuilding & poor efficiency level• Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton• Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of aircon space• Average over-sizing is 2x• Wasted capital stock = 0.025 x 1m m2 x $4k = US$100 million• Avg efficiency existing aircon 1.2 kW/t• Excess aircon energy (1.2 – 0.56), & cost: 0.025 x 1m m2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh = US$17 million/yr
  117. 117. ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE Cooling Load in kW per ton?Code: ~0.85 kW/ton or 50% moreBest: ~0.56 kW/ton Cost of overbuilding & Code efficiency level• Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton• Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of air-conditioned space• Above average oversizing is 1.5x• Wasted capital stock = 0.025*50% x 1m m2 x $4k = US$50 million• Code efficiency existing aircon 0.85 kW/t • Excess aircon energy (0.85 – 0.56), & cost: 0.0125 x 1mm2 x 5000 hrs/a x $0.20/kWh= US$12.5 million/yr
  118. 118. Portfolio Part 2 SHIFTINGTo green power and fuel options that are both climate & biodiversity positive, and have the smallest combined ecological impacts
  119. 119. Annual global energy consumption by humans Oil SOLAR PHOTONS Gas ACCRUED IN A MONTH EXCEED THE EARTH’S FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES Coal ANNUAL Wind Uranium Hydro ANNUAL Solar Energy PhotosynthesisSource: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on NationalPetroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
  120. 120. Attributes of Green Energy Services Dozen Desirable Criteria1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?2. Safe through the entire life cycle?3. Clean through the entire lifespan?4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?10. Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities & amplifying positive externalities scalable production possibilities?12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off radar of terrorists or military planners?
  121. 121. Uninteresting military target A Defensible Green Robust experience curves Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Promote Fails gracefully, not catastro Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically AffordableEfficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
  122. 122. SUN FUSION PHOTONS
  123. 123. A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving economic activity Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream
  124. 124. SOLAR REFLECTORSOver 4000 Walmart stores with white roofs, and standard practice since 1990Reflects away 80% of solar heat
  125. 125. World of Solar Reflecting Cities $2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction 100 m2Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate ChangeConference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  126. 126. OnshoreWind Trillion$
  127. 127. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanolSolar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLESMark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  128. 128. Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption. Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
  129. 129. Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-GeneratedElectricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
  130. 130. Myth 1:PV use more energy to make than they produce over their lifetime For cells in production now the energy payback is between 6 months and 5 years!
  131. 131. Myth 2: We do not have Enough Raw Materials• Si - 2nd most abundant element in Earth’s crust• The amorphous silicon cells manufactured from one ton of sand could produce as much electricity as burning 500,000 tons of coal
  132. 132. Myth 3: Solar Doesn’t Create Many JobsJobs created with everymillion dollars spenton:– oil and gas exploration: 1.5– on coal mining: 4.4– on producing solar water heaters: 14– on photovoltaic panels: 17
  133. 133. Myth 3: Solar requires too much land areaIn the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply byapplying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, andin dual-uses. [ Also requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.]Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of newland to make PV our primary energy source!
  134. 134. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the ―brown- fields‖— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solarLarry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  135. 135. The Global market for solar cells,Washington Post, December 16,2011, Sources: PhotonInternational, Earth PolicyInstitute, Wiley Rein.
  136. 136. • The price of solar panels fell steadily for 40 years.• Since January 2008 German solar modules prices dropped from €3 to €1 per peak watt (Wp). During that same time production capacity grew 50% per annum.• China market share rose from 8% in 2008 to over 55% by end of 2010.• Module prices have dropped to US$1.2–1.5/Wp (crystalline).
  137. 137. China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in SwitzerlandByrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  138. 138. China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  139. 139. Daylighting could displace 100s GWs Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
  140. 140. High-E Windows displacing pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in theU.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskanpipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), aswell as accrue over $15 billion per year ofsavings on energy bills.
  141. 141. 120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all personal motorized transportation in China. $3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh – twice as expensive as solar PV electricitySource: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasonsfor Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
  142. 142. www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LAwww.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA
  143. 143. Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide
  144. 144. The African market for off-grid lighting products is projected to achieve40 to 50 % annual sales growth, with 5-6 million African householdsowning quality portable lights (primarily solar) by 2015.Lighting Africa contributed to this market acceleration: in 2010 alone,the sales of solar portable lanterns that have passed Lighting Africa’squality tests grew by 70% in Africa.This resulted in more than 672,000 people on the continent withcleaner, safer, reliable lighting and improved energy access.
  145. 145. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  146. 146. Portfolio Part 3 SOURCING OFFSETS remaining footprints by prevention of threatenedtropical forests (REDD+) and other intact ecosystems (e.g., mangroves, peat lands, grass lands) through standards-based conservation carbon offsets
  147. 147. Protecting CriticalWilderness to OffsetOperation FootprintsIn 2005, Wal-Mart adopted thegoal to permanently offset theland footprint of all their USAstores and distribution centers byprotecting critical wildlife habitatin the USA.Walmart’s $35 million donationover 10 years enables purchasingenough land to account for itsstores current land-use, as well asthe company’s developmentthroughout the 10-year period --roughly 60,000 hectares.
  148. 148. High Quality Multi-Benefit
  149. 149. Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservationarea in Peru.Will prevent more than 900,000 tons ofCO2 from being released into theatmosphere.Using Climate, Community & BiodiversityCarbon Standards.
  150. 150. Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion tons CO2 14 million hectares burned each 25 year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year. More emissions than world transport system of 20 cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships 15 10 GHG levels 5 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land useIPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  151. 151. Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion tons CO2 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year 25 in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving better-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 GHG levels 5 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land useIPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  152. 152. Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)$ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation $20 & Degradation (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- 0 CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
  153. 153. U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO22.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion/yr REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss A A win-win-win win-win-win Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome outcome 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions
  154. 154. TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO PARTNERS SOURCE
  155. 155. Amory Lovins, select publications 1976 to 2012
  156. 156. Convergences & Emergences Vehicle-to-GridConnect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
  157. 157. hwww.techonomy.com/#te10www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_EKZvb7gc8 www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTKGP0O5f5Y&feature=related
  158. 158. Buildings
  159. 159. Commercial building energy efficiency supply curve by end use, 2050
  160. 160. Energy savings for integrative design cases (new residential)
  161. 161. Zero Emissions Home and Electric CarShannon Smith, In Germany, house powers car, SmartPlanet, December 30, 2011, www.smartplanet.com/
  162. 162. Beddington Zero Energy Design, UK
  163. 163. Cradle-to-Cradle McDonough Flow House, New Orleanshttp://www.greenpacks.org/2009/07/16/william-mcdonough-partners-complete-the-cradle-to-cradle-flow-house/
  164. 164. Venlo, NL – First Cradle-to-Cradle region in the Worldhttp://sustainablecities.dk/en/city-projects/cases/venlo-first-cradle-to-cradle-region-in-the-world
  165. 165. Utilities
  166. 166. 2050 installed capacity by case
  167. 167. Technology capital cost* projections, 2010-2050*Renewable costs exclude tax credits & similar subsidies; nonrenewable costs implicitly include many complex subsidies.
  168. 168. U.S. wind & solar PV capital cost trends 1976-2010
  169. 169. Near-term cost reductions for ground-mounted PV System
  170. 170. Present value costs of the U.S. electricity system 2010-2060
  171. 171. Historic & projected CO2 emissions from the U.S. electricity sector, 1990-2050
  172. 172. Industry
  173. 173. Transport
  174. 174. Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail PriceLightweight autos needn’t cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleetshows little or no correlation between lighter weight and higher prices.
  175. 175. Traffic fatalities, vehicle weight changes, and vehicle size based on 1999 U.S. fleet on the road Crash-safety risk with lightweight materials in automotive applications is only perceived, not supported by evidence. Lighter autos are actually safer than heavier ones the same size.
  176. 176. Comparison of carbon fiber vs. steel manufacturing costsAutomotive manufacturing costs can be cut by 80% with carbon fiber-based autos vs. steel-based ones due to greatly reduced tooling and simpler assembly and joining. However, suchcost savings are currently overshadowed with carbon fiber material prices ~$16/lb.
  177. 177. U.S. motor gasoline consumption with & withoutpolicy change and accelerated retooling, 2010-2050
  178. 178. Cost reduction potential of powertrains
  179. 179. Cumulative volume-based learning curves for battery packs and fuel cell systems
  180. 180. U.S. installed wind & solar power capacities and projections, 1990-2050
  181. 181. Hourly operability in a high-penetration renewables scenario
  182. 182. Hourly operability on a microgrid
  183. 183. Variable renewable output (hourly)
  184. 184. Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
  185. 185. Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a SustainableFuture by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
  186. 186. Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients – The Power in the Photon Bit stream
  187. 187. Earth receives more solar energyevery 90 minutes than humanityconsumes all year
  188. 188. Market share of different PV technologies 1999-2010
  189. 189. BIPV (mccabe)
  190. 190. FINANCING
  191. 191. Innovative Solar Financing Options Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
  192. 192. Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
  193. 193. GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops 100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this CenturyGermanys SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
  194. 194. Catalyzing solar smart poly-microgridsContinuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data withadministrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
  195. 195. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power AuctionsSmart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.
  196. 196. Sierpinski ―Pyramid‖ Fractal Market ModelSelf-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can bereproducible at any magnification or reduction.
  197. 197. Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions When two nanowires lay crisscrossed light will generate plasmon waves at the place where the two nanowires meet, creating a hot spot. The beauty is that the hot spots exist only when the nanowires touch, not after they have fused. The welding stops itself. Its self-limiting. This ability to heat with precision greatly increases the control, speed and energy efficiency of nanoscale welding.Erik C. Garnett, Wenshan Cai, Judy J. Cha, Fakhruddin Mahmood, Stephen T. Connor, M. Greyson Christoforo, Yi Cui, Michael D. McGehee &Mark L. Brongersma, Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions, Nature Materials, February 05, 2012
  198. 198. Nanoshell whispering galleries improve thin solar panels Using spherical nanoshell structures achieved absorption comparable to micron-thick layers with 50-nm- thick shells, reducing the film deposition time necessary to achieve strong absorption from hours to minutes.Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whisperinggallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012
  199. 199. Quantum-dot solar PV cellsQuantum dot solar cells use quantum dots as the photovoltaic material, as opposedto bulk materials such as silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) or CadmiumTelluride (CdTe). Quantum dots have bandgaps that are tunable across a wide range ofenergy levels by changing the quantum dot size, in contrast to bulk materials wherethe bandgap is fixed by the choice of material composition. This property makesquantum dots attractive for multi-junction solar cells, where a variety of differentenergy levels are used to extract more power from the solar spectrum.
  200. 200. Collodial-quantum-dot PVs using atomic-ligand passivation 16 of the inorganic CQD devicesQuantum dots are nanoscale semiconductors that capture light and convert itinto an energy source. The dots can be sprayed on to flexible surfaces,including plastics. Enables production of solar cells less expensive and moredurable than the more widely-known silicon-based version.
  201. 201. Solar cell nanodomes and plasmonicsTitania within the solar cell is imprinted into a honeycomb pattern by the siliconnanodomes like a waffle imprinted by the iron. A thin layer of batter is spread on atransparent, electrically conductive base. This batter is mostly titania, a semi-porous metalthat is also transparent to light.Next, they use their nano waffle iron to imprint the dimples into the batter. Then layer onsome butter – a light-sensitive dye – which oozes into the dimples and pores of the waffle.Lastly, some syrup is added – a layer of silver, which hardens almost immediately. When all those nanodimples fill up, the result is a pattern of nanodomes on the light-wardside of the silver. The silver acts as a mirror, scattering unabsorbed light back into the dyefor another shot at collection, plus, the light interacts with the silver nanodomes toproduce plasmonic effects.
  202. 202. Nanoshell whispering galleries Optical simulations of Silicon spherical nanoshellsYan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whisperinggallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012
  203. 203. GrapheneGraphene is an allotrope of carbon, whosestructure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of sp2-bonded carbon atoms that are densely packed inan atom-scale honeycomb crystal lattice.
  204. 204. Solar cell nano cones The n-type nanoncones are made of zinc oxide and serve as the junction framework and the electron conductor. The p-type matrix is made of polycrystalline cadmium telluride and serves as the primary photon absorber medium and hole conductor.Key features of the solar material include its unique electric field distributionthat achieves efficient charge transport; the synthesis of nanocones usinginexpensive proprietary methods; and the minimization of defects and voids insemiconductors.Because of efficient charge transport, the new solar cell can tolerate defectivematerials and reduce cost in fabricating next-generation solar cells.
  205. 205. Cerium Solar reactor (Haile caltech)Nano pillar solar cell arrays Solar roll 50 sq meters(Ascent)
  206. 206. Urban Solar Canopies
  207. 207. Solar Ivy
  208. 208. Tensile Solar Structures
  209. 209. OnshoreWind Trillion$
  210. 210. Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice current consumption. Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
  211. 211. Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-GeneratedElectricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)
  212. 212. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanolSolar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLESMark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  213. 213. 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
  214. 214. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How?The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, SouthDakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  215. 215. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  216. 216. Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  217. 217. Grasslands of the WorldSource: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html
  218. 218. Offshore Wind Trillion$
  219. 219. China will construct 5 GW of offshore wind projects by 2015 and 30 GW by 2030.
  220. 220. China Qingdao 5 MW wind turbine Vesta 7 MW wind turbine
  221. 221. Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions Tucuruí dam, BrazilSt. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience50: 766–75,
  222. 222. Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas Emissions: Emissions: Reservoir Generating km2/ Emissions DAM Hydro CC Gas Area Capacity Ratio MW (MtCO2- (MtCO2- (km2) (MW) Hydro/Gas eq/yr) eq/yr) Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4 Curuá- 72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5 Una Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the InternationalHydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
  223. 223. Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies
  224. 224. Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies
  225. 225. Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds Billion $ 2008 constant 90 $85 2 80Civilian Nuclear Power 70(1948 – 2009) 60vs. 50 40Solar Photovoltaics 30(1975-2009) 20 10 $4.2 1 0 1 2 PV NUCLEAR
  226. 226. 2 billion people lack safe waterAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  227. 227. Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  228. 228. 4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poorAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  229. 229. A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global- water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device
  230. 230. WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment OptionsAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  231. 231. WaterHealth International The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  232. 232. WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  233. 233. Mobility Services & AcccessAmount of space required to transport the same number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle. Muenster Planning Office, August 2001

×