presentation by
Michael P. Totten
Chief Advisor, Climate,
Freshwater & Ecosystem
Services,
Conservation International
At the panel on
Sustaining Our Natural
Resources: Protecting the
World's Forests
Sustainable Opportunities
Summit 2009:
Global Sustainability: the
New Bottom Line,
CORE Colorado
March 18, 2009
www.aclimateforlife.org/

4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven
EXTINCTION SPASM
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE
FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY

6th largest extinction – 1000 times natural background rate
1800 species populations extirpated every hour

More absolute poverty than any time in human history

Food, Fuel, Species
Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha
of land may be required for
agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of
additional land needed for medium
growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens
intact ecosystems and biodiversity-
rich habitats.

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere
rs
u
o
h
4
4
ry
e
v
e
1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

6°C

Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the
atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of
hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real
threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be
determining the level of \"catastrophe insurance\" needed:
\"rough comparisons could perhaps be
made with the potentially-huge payoffs,
small probabilities, and significant costs
involved in countering terrorism, building
anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman
…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of
climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that
the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of
national income on the cost of a clean environment.\"
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
2008
now 45GtCO2
2050
reduce to
<10 GtCO2
2100
reduce to
<4 GtCO2
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-
based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Century of Global Economic Growth Compared with Today
/y r
yr 3% x
/
2% 19
7x

“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in
Billion tons CO2
mitigation services available in
25
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
20
annually ; and saving well-off
nations billions of dollars.
15
10 US
GHG
5
levels
0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
14 million hectares burned each year
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Direct yields from tropical lands
converted to farming, including
proceeds from the sale of timber:
equivalent to less than $1 per
ton of CO2 in many areas
currently losing forest, and
usually well below $5 per ton.
Sir Nicholas Stern
Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately
available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options.
Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 by up to 130 ppm this century.
CONTRASTING ACTIONS:
$45 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.
The same amount of money would prevent the release of 6 times
this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
Geological storage (CCS) vs
mitigation cost annually
Ecological storage (REDD)
(2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
Carbon Mitigation Cost
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50
$45
~$100 billion
$40
~3 ¢ per kWh
$35
$30
$25 Reduced Emissions
Deforestation & Degradation
$20
(REDD)
$15
$10
~$18 billion
$5
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$- 0
CCS REDD
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007
$7.50 per ton CO2
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions
1/2 cent per kWh
$18 billion REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss
Tropical Deforestation 2007
30 million acres burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions A win-
win-win
outcome

480 gallons per year 4.8 tons GHG emissions
=
(25 mpg x 12,000 miles per year) per year
$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation & Degradation (REDD)
Adds 8.5 cents per gallon

carbon markets
forests
and
Toby Janson-Smith
Senior Director, Forest Carbon Markets

What is the “Carbon Market”
The buying and selling (trading) of:
emissions permits (rights to pollute) distributed by
a regulatory body, or
carbon offsets that have been generated by GHG
emissions reduction projects
Carbon markets help achieve emissions reductions in the
most cost effective way via the trading of carbon credits
Carbon credit = reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs)
equal to one ton of carbon dioxide (tCO2e), the most
common GHG

Regulatory Carbon Market
“cap & trade”
The Carbon
Market: trading
offsets and
allowances
Company pre-
regulatory CO2
emissions
Allowances Offsets
or Offsets sold
purchased
Allowances
sold
Regulatory Cap
Offset Projects

Voluntary Carbon Market
e.g. carbon neutral
commitments The Carbon
Market: trading
offsets
Starting emissions
Energy
Efficiency Offsets
sold
Offsets
purchased
Renewable
Energy
Carbon
Offset Projects
Offsets
“Carbon Neutral!”

Rapid Growth of Carbon Markets

Carbon Market Demand

The Forest Carbon Opportunity
Ref: IPCC 2007 cited in Climate Report 14 (2008). Mission Climat of Caisse des Dépôts

burning and clearing tropical forests
accounts for about 20% of global GHG
emissions — more than all the world’s cars,
trucks, ships, planes, and trains combined

protecting tropical forests is one of
the fastest and most cost effective
ways we can reduce CO2 emissions

people living in poverty world-wide,
depend on forest ecosystems and
the services they provide for their
livelihoods

biodiversity

healthy ecosystems buffer the
impacts of climate change
Forests reduce risks of floods+ droughts and
maintain agricultural productivity
Coral reefs + mangroves buffer coastal storms
Intact habitat allows species to migrate

investments target energy efficiency +
low carbon technologies
<1% forest +
land use $120M
Existing carbon
project investment
$15B

investing in nature is a cost effective +
immediate solution
Potential carbon
market project
investment
(2020)
$150 billion forest + land use
$30 billion
By protecting forests we can provide an
effective bridge to a low-carbon economy.

CI – building markets for forest carbon
1) Shaping climate policies
2) Creating carbon standards
3) Developing field projects
4) Securing major investment
5) Creating innovative funding
vehicles

1) Shaping Climate Policies
UN post-Kyoto
global treaty
European Union
US Federal
US state (e.g., CA)

2) Creating Standards
Project Design, plus Social
Credibility of GHG Reductions
and Environmental Impacts
Additionality
Poverty alleviation &
Measurement & Monitoring
Sustainable development
Leakage
Biodiversity conservation
Permanence
Watershed protection
Registration
Climate Adaptation

3) Developing Model Carbon Projects
Projects pre-FY08
Projects initiated FY08

Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring
wilderness, while helping people, species & climate

Ecuador collaborative offset projects
Preserve habitat for threatened
Andean Spectacled Bear,
Howler Monkey, and Northern
Naked Tailed Armadillo

FCCB
Forest Restoration
for Climate, Community and Biodiversity

4) Securing Corporate Investment

5) Conservation & Community Carbon Fund
Repayment of
Project
Carbon Credit
project costs
Development
Transactions
and Capacity Grants
($250M - $1,000M)
$
($25M - $100M)
tCO2
$ $$
Project Project Project Implementation
Design Start-up (Producing carbon credits)
Years 1 - 3 Years 4 - 30
• Carbon purchases and assets
managed by private sector

Various Types of Private Tropical Forest Financial Instruments
John O. Niles, Driving Private Capital to Conserve Tropical Forests: Current Frameworks & Policy Ideas, 2009 Forest Carbon Finance
Summit, Harvard University’s Program on International Financial Systems, 03-04-09, www.law.harvard.edu/programs/pifs/fcfsbb2009.html

thank you

Presentations & Publications by
Michael P Totten
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