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Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10



Humanity confronts unprecedented challenges of global and historical magnitude, including climate destabilization, ocean acidification, more absolute poor than any time in human history, and species ...

Humanity confronts unprecedented challenges of global and historical magnitude, including climate destabilization, ocean acidification, more absolute poor than any time in human history, and species extinction rate 1000 times the natural background rate. Instead of dealing with each problem separately, there are great gains to be made by looking for common solutions to these inextricably interwoven problems. Green economics offers one such perspective to assessment opportunities.



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Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10 Howard University Sigma Xi talk Biocomplexity Decisionmaking MP Totten 11-10 Presentation Transcript

  • Biocomplexity DecisionmakingInnovative approaches to the inter-connected challenges of Climate destabilization, Mass poverty and Species extinction Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International Sigma Xi talk, Howard University, November 29, 2010
  • ―Fundamental scales of physics,expressed in natural units, are remarkably different…widely spaced over 60orders of magnitude. Without this kind of hierarchy, complex structures (e.g.living beings) could not exist. Nobody knows why the scales are so apart‖Professor Sean CarrollCaltech H0 = expansion rate of the universe ρ vac = energy density of empty space Ry = Rydberg constant of atomic physics Λ QCD = scale governing the strong nuclear force mW = mass of the W boson carrying the weak nuclear force G-1/2 = Planck scale characterizing gravity, constructed from Newton’s constant G
  • www.nsf.orgBIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and physical interactions of living organisms with their environment.
  • New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org
  • Neural networks and synapses Fitness landscapes swarms migrations Fractal watersheds nested networks Collective intelligence Milankovitch cycles
  • While non-linearcomplex systemspervade existence,humans have a strongpropensity to think andact as if life is linear,uncertainty iscontrollable, the futurefree of surprises, andplanning can becompartmentalized intosilos.With nearly predictablefat-tail futures.
  • Unprecedented Challenges ofHistorical & Global Magnitude
  • More absolute poor than any time Mass poverty in human history [alongside more wealth than ever]
  • Resource Wars &Conflicts
  • Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate extinction Species
  • Past planetary mass extinctionstriggered by high CO2 >550ppm wierding Where we will be by 2100 900ppm Climate Parts per Million CO2
  • 55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web Acidifying OceansBernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
  • human 12 to 16 billionextinction?70,000 years ago humansdown to 2000 2100 ????
  • Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed: "rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
  • Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 TrajectoryGtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm Based on 6 Celsius average global temperature rise due to greater climate sensitivity Green Economics negative CO2 by 2050 to achieve <350 ppmMain difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
  • Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita >$/GDP/capSource: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
  • 2 TO 3% Annual Average $1,000 trillion GWP ~$100,000 per cap Gross World Product # in poverty? (GWP) 21st Century (~10 to 20x today’s) $500 trillion GWP ~$50,000 per cap # in poverty?$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty? 2005 2105 2105
  • Averting catastrophes by Greening the Global Economy
  • Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
  • Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames Natural system Technical system Social systemBrugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
  • Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions Tucuruí dam, BrazilSt. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience50: 766–75,
  • Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas Emissions: Emissions: Reservoir Generating km2/ Emissions DAM Hydro CC Gas Area Capacity Ratio MW (MtCO2- (MtCO2- (km2) (MW) Hydro/Gas eq/yr) eq/yr) Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4 Curuá- 72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5 Una Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the InternationalHydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
  • Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become climate positive and revenue positive Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success EcosystemRadical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power Protection
  • Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies 1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water & resources) 2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits (climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and promotion of community sustainable development) 3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS Select only verifiable ‘green power/fuels’ that are climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
  • CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low-carbon energy supplyZero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 fordeveloping countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
  • Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion tons CO2 14 million hectares burned each 25 year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year. More emissions than world transport system of 20 cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land useIPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  • Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion tons CO2 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year 25 in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving better-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land useIPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  • High Quality Multi-Benefit
  • Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservationarea in Peru.Will prevent more than 900,000 tons ofCO2 from being released into theatmosphere.Using Climate, Community & BiodiversityCarbon Standards.
  • Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)$ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation $20 & Degradation (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- 0 CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
  • U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO22.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion/yr REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss A A win-win-win win-win-win Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome outcome 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions
  • 1824 Liters per year 4.8 tons CO2 emissions per(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year) = year ~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO2 Adds 7 cents per gallon
  • In the wake of 14million hectares oftropical forestsburned down eachyear, some 16million speciespopulations goextinct.Speciescomprising thenatural laboratoryof biocomplexitywith future valuesyet to be assessedor discovered.
  • Bioprospecting biological wealth Using bioinformatic tools One-quarter all medical drugs used in developed world from plants. Cortisone and first oral contraceptives derived from Central American yam species Pacific yew in western US yielded anti-cancer drug taxol Vincristine from the Rosy Periwinkle in Madagascar Drug to prevent blood clotting from snake venom Active ingredient aspirin synthesized from willow trees.
  • Bioprospecting biological wealth Using biotechnological toolsBiomolecules prospected fromdifferent bioresources forpesticidal, therapeutic and otheragriculturally importantcompounds Biomolecules for Industrial and Medicinal Use Novel Genes/Promoters To Address Biotic and Abiotic Stress Genes for Transcription Factors Metabolic Engineering Pathways Nutritional Enhancement Bioavailability of Elements Microbial Biodiversity
  • GreenEngineering
  • Principles of Green Engineering 1. Inherent rather than circumstantial. 2. Prevention rather than treatment. 3. Design for separation. 4. Maximize mass, energy, space, and time efficiency. 5. ―Out‐pulled‖ rather than ―input‐pushed‖. 6. View complexity as an investment. 7. Durability rather than immortality. 8. Need rather than excess. 9. Minimize material diversity. 10. Integrate local material and energy flows. 11. Design for commercial ―afterlife‖. 12. Renewable and readily available.Source: Anastas and Zimmerman, Design Through the 12 Principles of Green Engineering,Environmental Science and Technology, March 1, 2003
  • Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
  • mass balance: E= [raw materials-product]/productSource: Green Chemistry & Catalysis for the Production of Flavours & Fragrances, Roger A. Sheldon,Biocatalysis & Organic Chemistry, Delft University of Technology, Nice, 17 June 2005; and, R.A. Sheldon, GreenChemistry & Catalysis for Sustainable Organic Synthesis, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, May 12, 2004
  • The Green Screen is a benchmarking tool that assesses a chemical’s hazard with the intent to guide decision making toward the use of the least hazardous options via a process of informed substitution.Source: The Green Screen for Safer Chemicals Version 1.0, Clean Production Action, Jan. 2001
  • Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses ondesign of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste orpollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)
  • Reducing a Product’s Environmental FootprintSpider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmentaleffects or ―footprint‖ are reduced over time through incremental improvements insustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years2009, 2025 and 2050.Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008
  • Ultra-low Carbonmulti-beneficial Energy Service Options
  • World Energy900 900 Projections To have a reasonable confidence that warming would stay below 2 C, global emissions must peak by 2015, reach a1000 1000 sustained rate of decline of 10%/year for decades, falling to zero by 2050. More cautious climate scientists argue we will need to go negative through 600 2100 to reach 350ppm – essential given greater climate A Copenhagen Prognosis: Towards a Safe Climate Future A Synthesis of the Science sensitivity than of Climate Change, Environment and previous thought. Development, SEI, TERI, PIK, 2009
  • Attributes of Green Energy Services Dozen Desirable Criteria1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?2. Safe through the entire life cycle?3. Clean through the entire lifespan?4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?10. Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities & amplifying positive externalities scalable production possibilities?12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off radar of terrorists or military planners?
  • Uninteresting military target A Defensible Green Robust experience curves Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Promote Fails gracefully, not catastro Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically AffordableEfficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
  • Universal symbol for Efficiency eta η The best thing about low- hanging fruit is that it keeps growing back.SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
  • CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type: • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low carbon energy supplyZero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 fordeveloping countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
  • Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh) CCS US current average nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity 2¢ 50 33 25 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • 2¢ 47 Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services 1¢: 93 kg CO2/$ 32 23 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California EnergyCommission, (916) 654-4930, ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
  • Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Consumption Coal Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian’s have net savings of $1,000 per family California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  • $50 billion/yr Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 ReductionHashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate ChangeConference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  • ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable 90% cost savings
  • ZERO NET ENERGY & EMISSION GREEN BUILDINGS The Costs andPublic library – North Carolina Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value Oberlin College Heinz Foundation Ecology Center, Green Building, PA Ohio
  • Daylighting could provide lighting services of 100s of GW power plants Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amounts of power plants with annual savings potential exceeding tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
  • Ultra-efficient Windows could save tens of billions $$ per year & displace Alaskan pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in theU.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskanpipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), aswell as accrue over $15 billion per year ofsavings on energy bills.
  • $10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value $ 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account[source: SafeClimate.net]
  • CFL factories displace power plants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil- fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991
  • LED light-emitting diodes
  • More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Need for Coal Mines & Power PlantsLess Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines
  • Earth receives more solar energyevery 90 minutes than humanityconsumes all year
  • USA Green Energy Services by 2060Source: Doug Balcomb, The Energy Road Ahead, Solar Today, April 2010, www.solartoday.org/
  • Global Green Economies-driven Energy Services this Century 70 60TeraWatts per year 50 40 30 20 10 Fast phase-out 0 fossil fuels 1 7 13 19 25 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 79 85 91 97 100 year
  • A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatilityafflicting every energy and power source used in driving economic activity Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream
  • In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply byapplying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, andin dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of newland to make PV our primary energy source!
  • Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solarLarry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  • China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in SwitzerlandByrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  • China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  • Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
  • 21GW Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008MW 40% annual growth rate Doubling <22 months 40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current total world energy use Compared to: Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009] Nuclear power 350,000 MW Hydro power 770,000 MW Natural Gas power 1 million MW Coal power 2 million MW 2009
  • What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century? 16,000,000 14,000,000 Solar PV Growth@ 25% perper year Solar PV Growth @ 25% year 12,000,000Megawatts 10,000,000 59 8,000,000 6,000,000 TW 4,000,000 by 2,000,000 2075 0 2000 1 2009 4 2021 7 2033 10 2045 13 2057 16 2089 2069 2069 19 Year Equal to total world consumption in 2009 16,000,000 Solar PV Growth@ 15% per per year Solar PV Growth @ 15% year 14,000,000 12,000,000 59Megawatts 10,000,000 8,000,000 TW 6,000,000 by 4,000,000 2119 2,000,000 0 2000 2009 2029 2049 2069 2089 2109 1 4 7 10 13 16 2109 19 Year
  • Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,zweibel@gwu.edu , http://Solar.gwu.edu/
  • Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
  • Solar power beats thermal plants within their construction lead time—at zero carbon priceSource: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
  • Federal Research & Development Funds Billion $ 2008 constant 90 $85 2 80Civilian Nuclear Power 70(1948 – 2009) 60vs. 50 40Solar Photovoltaics 30(1975-2009) 20 10 $4.2 1 0 1 2 PV NUCLEAR
  • Wind?
  • Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanolSolar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLESMark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  • 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
  • Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How?The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, SouthDakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  • Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  • Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  • Convergences & Emergences Vehicle-to-GridConnect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
  • PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large- scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity) providing operating reserves or storage for wind.Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewableenergy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
  • Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million). ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation).Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and RegionalU.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  • Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
  • Mississippi River DeltaUsing Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems Yangtze River Pearl River
  • Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as FeedstockButanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
  • Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  • Nutrient Rich Water Clean water (Sewage, polluted river water) Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH ATS + atmospheric CO2 Less CO2 in atmosphere (or power plant stack gases) ALGAL CO2 BIOMASS Biobutanol Solvent Fermenter Extraction (Clostridium butylicum Oil Ethanol C. Pasteurianum, etc.) Acetone C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + … Transesterification Lactic Acid Acetic Acid Organic Biodiesel FertilizerSource: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  • Biofuel Production from Algal Turf Scrubber Biomass (50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry) Estimated Biofuel Production (gallons per acre or ha per year) Algae butanol 1520 + 2000 biodiesel [3,770 gal/ha/yr] [5,000 gal/ha/yr] Corn (ethanol) 500 ---- [1,250 gal/ha/yr] Soy (biodiesel) ---- 100 [250 gal/ha/yr]Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  • Knowledge generationtransmission & distribution networks
  • The volume of digital information that exists—500 billion gigabytes-- equals a stack of books stretching to Pluto and back 10 times – 36 trillion miles total.
  • The amount ofdata producedeach yearwould fill37,000 librariesthe size of theLibrary ofCongress. The Library of Congress is the largest library in the world, with nearly 128 million items on approximately 530 miles of bookshelves.
  • 5000 days ago Pre-Web 5000 days from now Global Pre-Commercial Internet Cloud NetworkKevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
  • SocialCollaboration building aShared Vision
  • Imperative
  • What Makes This Possible?•Digital Technology• Internet networks• Web applications• Smart Phones & Handhelds
  • The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL:In 6 years and with only 6 paid employeesCatalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than theEncyclopedia BritannicaGrowing, Updated, Corrected daily by 100,000 volunteer editorsand content authorsTranslating content into 150+ languages, andVisited daily by > 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
  • Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007) Open Source & Global Access by Mobile Phones & Handhelds
  • How to fast-track greener cities
  • www.wbdg.org/ Whole Building Design GuidePassive Solar CoolingPassive Solar HeatingNatural VentilationSolar Daylighting
  • Web-based GreenBuilding Advisor
  • GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops 100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this CenturyGermanys SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
  • Solar smart poly-gridsContinuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data withadministrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
  • Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power AuctionsSmart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital mapalgorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rankexpansion of solar panel locations.
  • Architecture of Participation
  • Utility of expert & collective with increasing complexityNorman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. CollectiveIntelligence, Creating a Prosperous World at Peace, www.earth-intelligence.net.
  • Connected
  • The Universe ofGreen Tipping Points
  • GreenTippingPoints
  • Michael Totten Conservation International mtotten@conservation.orgTHANK YOU!
  • Doing the right things wrong Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1 incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in 130 nationsSource: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering
  • Doing the right things wrong Net reduction in atmospheric mercury emissions from the replacement of 1 incandescent bulb with a compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) in US statesSource: Green Chemistry: Molecular Design‐Build, Paul T. Anastas, Yale University, Center for Green Chemistry and Green Engineering
  • A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,Human Tragedy & Time Squandered