GreenATPGreen Applications & Tipping Points          Presentation at the   UCLA Anderson School of Business               ...
WHY?             Collapsing  Mass            EcosystemsPoverty         Mass Climate      Extinctiondisasters
Unprecedented  Challenges ofHistorical & Global    Magnitude
More absolute poor than any time                                            Mass poverty    in human history – 1 out of 4[...
UnendingResource Wars &Conflicts
Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate                                extinction                       ...
Past planetary mass extinctions                                                                    Catastrophestriggered b...
55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web    ...
Negative Tipping PointsSource: Timothy M. Lenton¤y , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , WolfgangLucht , Stefan ...
Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate o...
human               12 to 16                billionextinction?70,000 years ago humansdown to 2000                 2100    ...
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "...
Where the world needs to go:                 energy-related CO2 emissions per capita                                      ...
$1,000 trillion GWP       2 TO 3% Annual Average           ~$100,000 per cap         Gross World Product            # in p...
GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering     GENETICS        AUTOROBOTICS     INFORMATICS      NANOTECH
While non-linear complexadaptive systems pervadeexistence, humans have astrong propensity to thinkand act as if life is li...
Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3        knowledge relationships of knowledge                             ...
The adaptive cycle - a theory of the relationship of           transformation to resilience StoredReleased            Vari...
Cross-Scale Interactions – temporal & spatialSource: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
Can WE  Avert Multiple Catastrophes,Avoid Irreversible Consequences,      and Make the Shift toHealthy, Sustainable Econom...
OR,                       Getting to                             Maybevia Emergent Collaboration Networks
Greening Economies    Locally to Globally   A Need for GreenATPGreen Apps & Tipping Points
Harnessing the Busy BeesNoel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,
The Universe of human activity   Greenin Green Apps & Tipping Points    ATP
Green      ATPGreenAPPs  User built User driven
greening city economics 24/7       by bit s & wits
billions forming & swarming  knowledge, for well-being,value, prosperity & posterity            Green             ATP
Green ATP User-built Public assetOpen source, Global access
More GreenerAPPscollaboratively filtered              Greenest APPs via             ranking algorithms
HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERSSource: Albert-Lázló Barabási & Eric Bonabeau, Scale-Free Networks, Scientific American, May 2003
Institutional level                    A change in culture                       A change in laws                  A chang...
water   energy        mobile knowbilityfood
WHAT?Buildings    MobilityUtilities   Products
FinanceRegulation          HOW?   Learning                  Sharing [EPPs]
Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS       Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become              climate positive...
Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies           1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY            Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuo...
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption   becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.       Closing the Loop – R...
Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses ondesign of products and a production cycl...
Reducing a Product’s Environmental FootprintSpider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmentaleffe...
CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020                                              Breakdown by abatement type          ...
Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction                       Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion ton...
Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive                       Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion ...
High Quality   Multi-Benefit
Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern...
Geological storage (CCS) vs                 U.S. fossil Electricity CO2           Ecological storage (REDD)               ...
U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007        $7.50 per ton CO22.4 billion tons CO2 emissions         1/2 cent per kWh           ...
1824 Liters per year                 4.8 tons CO2 emissions per(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year)   =                 year  ...
Irreversible LossIn the wake of 14million hectares oftropical forestsburned down eachyear, some 16 millionspecies populati...
Bioprospecting biological wealth using          bioinformatic tools from field to lab One-quarter all medical drugs  used...
Bioprospecting biological wealth using     biotechnology tools from field to labBiomolecules prospectedfrom different bio-...
Ultra-low Carbon    multi-beneficial  Energy, Mobility &Utility Service Options
Attributes of Green Energy, Mobility &            Utility Energy Services           Dozen Desirable Criteria1. Economicall...
Uninteresting military target        A Defensible Green                                                            Robust ...
Universal symbol for Efficiency         eta          η                       The best thing                               ...
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS   Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable        90% cost savings
$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 ReductionHashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Co...
PassiveHaus
Beyond Zero Net                                                  Energy Buildings                                       Th...
Daylighting could displace 100s GWs          Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,          consume half of a c...
High-E Windows displacing pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in theU.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan...
Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh)                                               CCS                       ...
How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing     one dollar to make or save delivered electricity       2...
2¢          47  Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced  per dollar spent on electrical services                               ...
Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from   revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants       ...
The Stone           Age did           not end         because it         ran out of            stones         The FossilCH...
SUN FUSION PHOTONS
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere      worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never   failing,...
Annual global energy consumption by humans                             Oil                                                ...
Harnessing 1/7500th of the Sun’s   delivered photons is technically, economically & financially feasible.  Scientists conf...
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simpl...
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%           total US electricity from brownfields        90% of America’s current   ...
Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of JobsSource: Dave Miller, President, DuPont Electronics & Communications, GW Solar...
Innovative Solar Financing Options  Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
Solar power beats thermal plants within their          construction lead time—at zero carbon priceSource: Amory Lovins, RM...
China Economics of Commercial BIPV            Building-Integrated Photovoltaics                                           ...
China EconomicsCommercial BIPV             Economics of of Commercial BIPV                                                ...
21GW Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008MW                                         40% annual growth rate               ...
Shifting from a $2500 trillion energy billthis century, 75% from fossil fuels                             To an energy    ...
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China            Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all  ...
Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds                               Billion $ 2008 constant                          90 ...
What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century?          Rate Largely Driven by Incentives, Finance Innovations...
GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops      100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,    WATER, FUELS OR E...
Catalyzing solar smart poly-gridsContinuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided...
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power AuctionsSmart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar ...
Wind Trillion$
95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains                                     Figures of Merit                  ...
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double    farm/ranch income with 30x less land area                                           ...
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of              Rural Farm and Ranch Income                                           ...
Montana      South Dakota                                GREAT PLAINS                               WIND RESOURCES        ...
Potential Synergisms
Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century, but worse
China     OppsIntensive farmingand grazingpractices anddeforestation inChina have led tomore frequent duststorms, like thi...
Offshore Wind Trillion$
Offshore Wind potential several times greater than total world energy consumption           Announced turbine developments...
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles                                           Solar-battery                        ...
Orangutan habitat destructionfor biodiesel oil palm plantations
Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
Mississippi River DeltaInstead, Use Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for     Biofuel Production through Algae Systems   ...
Small Land footprint      Only Wastewater as FeedstockButanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
Shallow production area –30x less land area than crop   biofuels for same yields
Locally diverse algae produce biomass (Biomimicry)Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, em...
Nutrient Rich Water                                                 Clean water                     (Sewage, polluted rive...
Biofuel Production from Algal            Turf Scrubber Biomass    (50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry)...
water
2 billion people lack safe waterAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water fo...
Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking  dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach            adulthood...
4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of          dollars in lo...
A new water disinfector for the                                                 developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA• M...
WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.                          Other Treatment OptionsAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions t...
WaterHealth International  The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of  pathog...
WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of o...
FOOD
starving
At the same time, climate-triggered weather disasters are expected    to severely reduce global agricultural yields – by 2...
Food, Fuel, Species    Tradeoffs?By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha ofland may be required for agriculture.Combined wi...
FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITYUsing low-input, high-yield micro-farming methods cangrow complete vegetarian diets on 1 h...
Currently, 15% of food is grown in urban areas. Many citiescould grow complete food diets on 10% of urban land area.
COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS
WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDSThere are more than 20,000 known species of edible plants in the world and yet, today, less...
Using Green Apps & Tipping Points forGrowing Food for Self, Family, and Income
MobileKnowbility
Climate mitigation actions             Complete the StreetsWeb-based routes   Bicycle promotion programs                  ...
Geographic WikisSource: Reid Royer Priedhorsky and Loren G. Terveen, The Value of Geographic Wikis, 2010
Handhelds can enable &     enoble citizens,  consumers, families,    neighborhoods, communities, regions, nations and the ...
End User Green Tipping Points
Barefoot Women’s Solar Engineering Assoc.
Characteristics of crowdsourcing processes 19 distinct process types identified from46 crowdsourcing examples. Subsequent ...
The Collective Intelligence GenomeTHE LEADING QUESTIONHow can you get crowds to do what your business needs done?FINDINGSC...
Successful Commercial & Social Collective Intelligence Web Sites
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2...
When the Crowd gene is usefulThe Crowd gene is most useful in situations where the resourcesand skills needed to perform a...
Innovative Collaborative Knowledge Networks, http://www.ickn.org/innovation.html
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2...
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2...
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2...
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2...
Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2...
Flowchart for the design of a CI system Developing a detailed decision tree This approach then asks a series of sequential...
Noah Raford, When CollectiveIntelligence Genes are Useful,2010, www.noahraford.com
Noah Raford, When Collective Intelligence Genes are Useful, 2010, www.noahraford.com
Green ATP 60month        Green         ATPGoal
Green ATP Operating Budget                              ANNUAL              MONTHLY            60 MONTHS    THE TEAM      ...
How much is a unique visitor     worth on the Internet?Depends on who you are. Amazon (e-commerce) is generating $189 per ...
Potential Growth Scenarios             1 hour of                     2%        TOTAL                            Site Green...
Green ATP  Michael P. Totten, mtotten@conservation.org
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11
GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11
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GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11

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Slides from seminar. See article for details: http://www.scribd.com/mtotten6756
Summary:
Humanity’s unceasing ingenuity is generating vast economic gain for billions of people with goods unavailable to even kings and queens throughout most of history. Unfortunately, this economic growth has triggered unprecedented se- curity challenges of global and historical magnitude: more absolute poor than any time in human history, the sixth largest extinction spasm of life on earth, climate destabilization with mega-catastrophic consequences, and multi-trillion dollar wars over access to energy. These multiple, inextricably interwoven chal- lenges have low probability of being solved if decision makers maintain the strong propensity to think and act as if life is linear, has no carrying capacity limits, uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, planning is predictable and compartmentalized into silos, and Gaussian distributions are taken as the norm while fat-tail futures are ignored. Although the future holds irreducible uncertainties, it is not fated. The emergence of Internet availability to one-third of humanity and access by most of humanity within a decade has spawned the Web analogue of a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of speciation in knowledge applica- tions. Among the most prodigious have been collaboration innovation networks (COINs) reflecting a diversity of ‘genome’ types, facilitating a myriad of collective intelligence crowd-swarming phenomena (Malone T, Laubacher R, Dellarocas C. The Collective Intelligence Genome. MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring; 2010, Vol. 51). COINs are essential tools for accelerating and scaling transformational solutions (positive tipping points) to the wicked problems confronting humanity. Web COINs enable acceleration of multiple-benefit innovations and solutions to these problems that permeate the nested clusters of linked nonlinear complex adaptive systems comprising the global biosphere and socioeconomy [Raford N. How to build a collective intelligence platform to crowdsource almost anything. Available at: http:news.noahraford.com.

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GreenATP ucla anderson business school mp totten 06 11

  1. 1. GreenATPGreen Applications & Tipping Points Presentation at the UCLA Anderson School of Business by Michael P. Totten Chief Advisor, Green Economies Conservation International June 09-10, 2011
  2. 2. WHY? Collapsing Mass EcosystemsPoverty Mass Climate Extinctiondisasters
  3. 3. Unprecedented Challenges ofHistorical & Global Magnitude
  4. 4. More absolute poor than any time Mass poverty in human history – 1 out of 4[alongside more extreme wealth than ever]
  5. 5. UnendingResource Wars &Conflicts
  6. 6. Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate extinction Species Extinctions Human population
  7. 7. Past planetary mass extinctions Catastrophestriggered by high CO2 >550ppm Where we will be by 2100 900ppm Climate Parts per Million CO2 TODAY: 387PPM
  8. 8. 55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web Acidifying Oceans Global Circulation Models (GCM)Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
  9. 9. Negative Tipping PointsSource: Timothy M. Lenton¤y , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , WolfgangLucht , Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements inthe Earths climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA,www.pnas.org/.
  10. 10. Unintended Geo-engineering Consequences A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of tens of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
  11. 11. human 12 to 16 billionextinction?70,000 years ago humansdown to 2000 2100 ????
  12. 12. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed: "rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
  13. 13. Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita ???Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
  14. 14. $1,000 trillion GWP 2 TO 3% Annual Average ~$100,000 per cap Gross World Product # in poverty? century growth rate (~10 to 20x today’s) $500 trillion GWP ~$50,000 per cap # in poverty?$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty? 2005 2105 at 2% 2105 at 3%
  15. 15. GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering GENETICS AUTOROBOTICS INFORMATICS NANOTECH
  16. 16. While non-linear complexadaptive systems pervadeexistence, humans have astrong propensity to thinkand act as if life is linear,uncertainty is controllable,the future free of surprises,and planning is predictableand compartmentalizedinto silos.Normal distributions areassumed, fat-tail futuresare ignored.
  17. 17. Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames Natural system Technical system Social systemBrugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
  18. 18. The adaptive cycle - a theory of the relationship of transformation to resilience StoredReleased Variety SamenessSource: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
  19. 19. Cross-Scale Interactions – temporal & spatialSource: Resilience Alliance, www.resalliance.org/
  20. 20. Can WE Avert Multiple Catastrophes,Avoid Irreversible Consequences, and Make the Shift toHealthy, Sustainable Economies?
  21. 21. OR, Getting to Maybevia Emergent Collaboration Networks
  22. 22. Greening Economies Locally to Globally A Need for GreenATPGreen Apps & Tipping Points
  23. 23. Harnessing the Busy BeesNoel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10,
  24. 24. The Universe of human activity Greenin Green Apps & Tipping Points ATP
  25. 25. Green ATPGreenAPPs User built User driven
  26. 26. greening city economics 24/7 by bit s & wits
  27. 27. billions forming & swarming knowledge, for well-being,value, prosperity & posterity Green ATP
  28. 28. Green ATP User-built Public assetOpen source, Global access
  29. 29. More GreenerAPPscollaboratively filtered Greenest APPs via ranking algorithms
  30. 30. HIERARCHICAL CLUSTERSSource: Albert-Lázló Barabási & Eric Bonabeau, Scale-Free Networks, Scientific American, May 2003
  31. 31. Institutional level A change in culture A change in laws A change in resource distribution/availability Organizational level A change in strategiesA change in procedures A change in resourcedistribution/availability Network/Group level A change in conversation A change in routine A change in resource commitment or influence Individual level A change in heart A change of habits A change of ambition
  32. 32. water energy mobile knowbilityfood
  33. 33. WHAT?Buildings MobilityUtilities Products
  34. 34. FinanceRegulation HOW? Learning Sharing [EPPs]
  35. 35. Adopting Win-Win-Win PORTFOLIOS Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become climate positive and revenue positive Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success EcosystemRadical Energy Efficiency Ecological Green Power Protection
  36. 36. Adopting Portfolios of Best Policies 1)RADICAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY Pursue vigorous, rigorous & continuous improvements that reap monetary savings, ancillary benefits, & GHG reductions (same w/ water & resources) 2)PROTECT THREATENED ECOSYSTEMS Add conservation carbon offset options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits (climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and promotion of community sustainable development) 3)ECOLOGICAL GREEN POWER/FUELS Select only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts
  37. 37. Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months. Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste NutrientsE. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
  38. 38. Cradle-to-Cradle is an innovative and sustainable industrial model that focuses ondesign of products and a production cycle that strives to produce no waste orpollutants at all stages of the lifecycle.Source: Braungart and McDonough Cradle-to-Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002)
  39. 39. Reducing a Product’s Environmental FootprintSpider diagram is one way to show how a particular product’s environmentaleffects or ―footprint‖ are reduced over time through incremental improvements insustainable design. This diagram shows the dimensions of the footprint in years2009, 2025 and 2050.Source: California Green Chemistry Initiative, Final Report, California EPA and Dept. Toxic Substances Control, December 2008
  40. 40. CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low-carbon energy supplyZero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 fordeveloping countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the €215 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
  41. 41. Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion tons CO2 14 million hectares burned each 25 year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year. More emissions than world transport system of 20 cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land useIPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  42. 42. Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive Gigatons global CO2 emissions per yearBillion tons CO2 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year 25 in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving better-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land useIPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  43. 43. High Quality Multi-Benefit
  44. 44. Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date$4 million to protect the Tayna andKisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves ineastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservationarea in Peru.Will prevent more than 900,000 tons ofCO2 from being released into theatmosphere.Using Climate, Community & BiodiversityCarbon Standards.
  45. 45. Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)$ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation $20 & Degradation (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- 0 CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
  46. 46. U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO22.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion/yr REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss A A win-win-win win-win-win Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome outcome 13 million hectares burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions
  47. 47. 1824 Liters per year 4.8 tons CO2 emissions per(10.6 km/l x 19,370 km per year) = year ~$48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation at $10 per tCO2 Adds 7 cents per gallon
  48. 48. Irreversible LossIn the wake of 14million hectares oftropical forestsburned down eachyear, some 16 millionspecies populationsgo extinct.Endemic speciescomprising thenatural laboratory ofbiocomplexity withfuture values yet tobe assessed ordiscovered.
  49. 49. Bioprospecting biological wealth using bioinformatic tools from field to lab One-quarter all medical drugs used in developed world from plants. Cortisone and first oral contraceptives derived from Central American yam species Pacific yew in western US yielded anti-cancer drug taxol Vincristine from the Rosy Periwinkle in Madagascar Drug to prevent blood clotting from snake venom Active ingredient aspirin synthesized from willow trees.
  50. 50. Bioprospecting biological wealth using biotechnology tools from field to labBiomolecules prospectedfrom different bio-resourcesfor pesticidal, therapeutic andother agriculturally importantcompounds Biomolecules for Industrial and Medicinal Use Novel Genes/Promoters to address Biotic and Abiotic Stress Genes for Transcription Factors Metabolic Engineering Pathways Nutritional Enhancement Bioavailability of Elements Microbial Biodiversity
  51. 51. Ultra-low Carbon multi-beneficial Energy, Mobility &Utility Service Options
  52. 52. Attributes of Green Energy, Mobility & Utility Energy Services Dozen Desirable Criteria1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?2. Safe through the entire life cycle?3. Clean through the entire lifespan?4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?10. Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities & amplifying positive externalities scalable production possibilities?12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off radar of terrorists or military planners?
  53. 53. Uninteresting military target A Defensible Green Robust experience curves Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Promote Fails gracefully, not catastro Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically AffordableEfficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
  54. 54. Universal symbol for Efficiency eta η The best thing about low- hanging fruit is that it keeps growing back.SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
  55. 55. ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable 90% cost savings
  56. 56. $2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 gigatons CO2 ReductionHashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate ChangeConference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  57. 57. PassiveHaus
  58. 58. Beyond Zero Net Energy Buildings The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings,Public library – North Carolina A Report to California‟s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value Oberlin College Heinz Foundation Ecology Center, Green Building, PA Ohio
  59. 59. Daylighting could displace 100s GWs Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
  60. 60. High-E Windows displacing pipelinesFull use of high performance windows in theU.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskanpipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), aswell as accrue over $15 billion per year ofsavings on energy bills.
  61. 61. Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh) CCS US current average nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  62. 62. How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity 2¢ 50 33 25 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  63. 63. 2¢ 47 Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services 1¢: 93 kg CO2/$ 32 23 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  64. 64. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Consumption Coal Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian‟s have net savings of $1,000 per family California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  65. 65. The Stone Age did not end because it ran out of stones The FossilCHANGE Fuel Age won’t end because it ran out of fossils
  66. 66. SUN FUSION PHOTONS
  67. 67. A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving economic activity Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream
  68. 68. Annual global energy consumption by humans Oil SOLAR PHOTONS Gas ACCRUED IN A MONTH EXCEED THE EARTH’S FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES Coal ANNUAL Wind Uranium Hydro ANNUAL Solar Energy PhotosynthesisSource: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on NationalPetroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
  69. 69. Harnessing 1/7500th of the Sun’s delivered photons is technically, economically & financially feasible. Scientists confident that 10X thisamount can be harnessed this century.GreenATP can drive transformationalinnovations essential for shifting to a solar powered global economy --buyers, incentives, financing, training,R&D, standards, training, policies, etc
  70. 70. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply byapplying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, andin dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of newland to make PV our primary energy source!
  71. 71. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the ―brown- fields‖— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solarLarry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  72. 72. Photovoltaics is an Excellent Creator of JobsSource: Dave Miller, President, DuPont Electronics & Communications, GW Solar Institute Symposium,The Critical Role of Materials in the Solar PV Industry, April 19, 2010
  73. 73. Innovative Solar Financing Options Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
  74. 74. Solar power beats thermal plants within their construction lead time—at zero carbon priceSource: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
  75. 75. China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in SwitzerlandByrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  76. 76. China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  77. 77. 21GW Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008MW 40% annual growth rate Doubling <22 months 40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current total world energy use Compared to: Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009] Nuclear power 350,000 MW Hydro power 770,000 MW Natural Gas power 1 million MW Coal power 2 million MW 2009
  78. 78. Shifting from a $2500 trillion energy billthis century, 75% from fossil fuels To an energy bill half this amount, and 75% solar services.
  79. 79. Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
  80. 80. 120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all personal motorized transportation in China. $3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh – twice as expensive as solar PV electricitySource: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasonsfor Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
  81. 81. Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds Billion $ 2008 constant 90 $85 2 80Civilian Nuclear Power 70(1948 – 2009) 60vs. 50 40Solar Photovoltaics 30(1975-2009) 20 10 $4.2 1 0 1 2 PV NUCLEAR
  82. 82. What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century? Rate Largely Driven by Incentives, Finance Innovations, Public Policies & Regulations 200000 Solar PV Growth @ 20% per year 2032 @ 180000 40% >10X total world energy consumption than in 2009 160000 2071GigaWatts (GW) 140000 @ 15% 120000 100000 2103 @ 80000 10% 60000 40000 20000 15000 GW total world consumption in 2009 0 2009 2013 2016 2020 2023 2027 2031 2034 2038 2041 2045 2049 2052 2056
  83. 83. GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops 100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this CenturyGermanys SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
  84. 84. Catalyzing solar smart poly-gridsContinuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data withadministrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
  85. 85. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power AuctionsSmart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.
  86. 86. Wind Trillion$
  87. 87. 95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 3MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total WindFarm spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40% USA total GHG emissions
  88. 88. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How?The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  89. 89. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  90. 90. Montana South Dakota GREAT PLAINS WIND RESOURCES in varying stages of digitalWyoming Nebraska Apps --technical, training ecological, economic, financial assessment, mapping & mashups, visualization, installation, Iowa operation & post-Colorado production options OklahomaNew Mexico Texas
  91. 91. Potential Synergisms
  92. 92. Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century, but worse
  93. 93. China OppsIntensive farmingand grazingpractices anddeforestation inChina have led tomore frequent duststorms, like this onein 2001 that sweptaerosol particlesinto the Great Lakesregion of the US,and even left asprinkling in theAlps mountains inEurope.
  94. 94. Offshore Wind Trillion$
  95. 95. Offshore Wind potential several times greater than total world energy consumption Announced turbine developments China Offshore Wind USA Offshore Wind >7 meters/second Brazil Offshore Wind
  96. 96. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanolSolar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLESMark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, StanfordUniversity, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  97. 97. Orangutan habitat destructionfor biodiesel oil palm plantations
  98. 98. Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
  99. 99. Mississippi River DeltaInstead, Use Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems Yangtze River Pearl River
  100. 100. Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as FeedstockButanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
  101. 101. Shallow production area –30x less land area than crop biofuels for same yields
  102. 102. Locally diverse algae produce biomass (Biomimicry)Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  103. 103. Nutrient Rich Water Clean water (Sewage, polluted river water) Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH ATS + atmospheric CO2 Less CO2 in atmosphere (or power plant stack gases) ALGAL CO2 BIOMASS Biobutanol Solvent Fermenter Extraction (Clostridium butylicum Oil Ethanol C. Pasteurianum, etc.) Acetone C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + … Transesterification Lactic Acid Acetic Acid Organic Biodiesel FertilizerSource: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  104. 104. Biofuel Production from Algal Turf Scrubber Biomass (50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry) Estimated Biofuel Production gallons per acre [ha per year] Algae butanol 1520 + biodiesel [3,770 gal/ha/yr] 2000 [5,000 gal/ha/yr] Corn (ethanol) 500 ---- [1,250 gal/ha/yr] Soy (biodiesel) ---- 100 [250 gal/ha/yr]Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  105. 105. water
  106. 106. 2 billion people lack safe waterAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  107. 107. Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  108. 108. 4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poorAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  109. 109. A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global- water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device
  110. 110. WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment OptionsAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  111. 111. WaterHealth International The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  112. 112. WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  113. 113. FOOD
  114. 114. starving
  115. 115. At the same time, climate-triggered weather disasters are expected to severely reduce global agricultural yields – by 20 to 40 %.Projected reductions in yield in some African countries could be as much as 50% by 2020.
  116. 116. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs?By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha ofland may be required for agriculture.Combined with the 800 million ha ofadditional land needed for medium growthbioenergy scenarios, threatens intactecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
  117. 117. FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITYUsing low-input, high-yield micro-farming methods cangrow complete vegetarian diets on 1 hectare of landsufficient for 100 people.Urban food production worldwide is a key climatemitigation and adaptation strategy, enhancing food securityand system resilience against ever-increasing threat ofsudden supply disruptions and price spikes.Urban farming for many populations around the world isliterally an insurance hedge against the threat of persistenthunger.
  118. 118. Currently, 15% of food is grown in urban areas. Many citiescould grow complete food diets on 10% of urban land area.
  119. 119. COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS
  120. 120. WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDSThere are more than 20,000 known species of edible plants in the world and yet, today, less than20 species of plants now supply most of our plant foods; just four plant species – corn, wheat,rice and potatoes – feed more people than the next 26 plant species combined
  121. 121. Using Green Apps & Tipping Points forGrowing Food for Self, Family, and Income
  122. 122. MobileKnowbility
  123. 123. Climate mitigation actions Complete the StreetsWeb-based routes Bicycle promotion programs Walkability city programs
  124. 124. Geographic WikisSource: Reid Royer Priedhorsky and Loren G. Terveen, The Value of Geographic Wikis, 2010
  125. 125. Handhelds can enable & enoble citizens, consumers, families, neighborhoods, communities, regions, nations and the worldhuman society towards practical wisdom
  126. 126. End User Green Tipping Points
  127. 127. Barefoot Women’s Solar Engineering Assoc.
  128. 128. Characteristics of crowdsourcing processes 19 distinct process types identified from46 crowdsourcing examples. Subsequent cluster analysis shows general patterns among these types and indicates a link to certain applications of crowdsourcing. 96 theoretically possible process types (for the current dimensions) have been identified so far.Source: David Geiger et al, Managing the Crowd: Towards a Taxonomy of Crowdsourcing Processes, Proceedings of theSeventeenth Americas Conference on Information Systems, Detroit, Aug. 4th-7th 2011
  129. 129. The Collective Intelligence GenomeTHE LEADING QUESTIONHow can you get crowds to do what your business needs done?FINDINGSCollective Intelligence (CI) has already been proven to work, and CIsystems can be designed and managed to fit specific needs.CI building blocks, or “genes,” can be recombined to create the rightkind of system.Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  130. 130. Successful Commercial & Social Collective Intelligence Web Sites
  131. 131. Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  132. 132. When the Crowd gene is usefulThe Crowd gene is most useful in situations where the resourcesand skills needed to perform an activity are distributed widely orreside in places that are not known in advance.
  133. 133. Innovative Collaborative Knowledge Networks, http://www.ickn.org/innovation.html
  134. 134. Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  135. 135. Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  136. 136. Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  137. 137. Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  138. 138. Thomas Malone, Robert Laubacher, Chrysanthos Dellarocas, The Collective Intelligence Genome, MIT SlowMgnt Review, Spring 2010, vol. 51, No. 3
  139. 139. Flowchart for the design of a CI system Developing a detailed decision tree This approach then asks a series of sequential, logical questions, the answers of which form specific guidelines for all CI systems: 1. Can activities be divided into pieces? Are necessary resources widely distributed or in unknown locations? 2. Are there adequate incentives to participate? 3. What kind of activity needs to be done? 4. Can the activity be divided into small, independent pieces? 5. Are only a few good (best) solutions needed? 6. Does the entire group need to abide by the same decision? 7. Are money or resources required to exchange hands or motivate decision?Source: Noah Radford, How to Build a Collective Intelligence Platform to CrowdsourceAlmost Anything, August 21, 2010, http://news.noahraford.com
  140. 140. Noah Raford, When CollectiveIntelligence Genes are Useful,2010, www.noahraford.com
  141. 141. Noah Raford, When Collective Intelligence Genes are Useful, 2010, www.noahraford.com
  142. 142. Green ATP 60month Green ATPGoal
  143. 143. Green ATP Operating Budget ANNUAL MONTHLY 60 MONTHS THE TEAM (fully loaded) (fully loaded) (fully loaded)Chief Persuader $ 200,000 $ 16,667 $ 1,000,000Chief Networker $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000Chief Interfacer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000Chief Engineer $ 150,000 $ 12,500 $ 750,000Finance (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000Legal (1) $ 10,000 $ 833 $ 50,000Support (2) $ 30,000 $ 2,500 $ 150,000Technical equipment $ 80,000 $ 6,667 $ 400,000and servicesTravel & Promotion $ 25,000 $ 2,083 $ 125,000TOTAL $ 805,000 $ 67,083 $ 4,025,000
  144. 144. How much is a unique visitor worth on the Internet?Depends on who you are. Amazon (e-commerce) is generating $189 per user. Google(search) is generating $24 per user. Facebook (social networking) is only generating $4per user according to this chart from JP Morgans Imran Khan.
  145. 145. Potential Growth Scenarios 1 hour of 2% TOTAL Site Green TOTAL Volunteer Service service END USER Product Service time/week @ earnings earnings+ENGAGEMENT Purchases Earnings Outcomes? $9/hour value on volunteerSCENARIOS (million $ only (million (million $ per purchases time (million per year) $ per year) year) (million $) $ per year) WILD 100,000,000 $ 46,800 $ 10,000 $ 1,000 $ 47,800 $ 1,000 SUCCESS VIRAL 10,000,000 $ 4,680 $ 1,000 $ 100 $ 4,780 $ 100 SUCCESS 1,000,000 $ 468 $ 100 $ 10 $ 478 $ 10 SUCCESS BUDGET 100,000 $ 47 $ 10 $ 1$ 48 $ 1 SURPLUS BUDGET 10,000 $ 5$ 1 $ 0$ 5$ 0.1 DEFICIT INKIND assumes 1 hour of Volunteer time per week per end user valued at $9/hr PRODUCT purchases assumes $100 per end user per year SERVICE transaction earnings assumes 2 percent of Product purchases
  146. 146. Green ATP Michael P. Totten, mtotten@conservation.org

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