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Great plains win-win-wind strategy 100% renewable US power michael p totten april 20 2013
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Great plains win-win-wind strategy 100% renewable US power michael p totten april 20 2013

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currently 75% of Great Plains is farmed/ranched, generating 5% of the region's total revenues. Long-term sustainability threatened by increasing frequency severity droughts, heat waves, soil erosion, …

currently 75% of Great Plains is farmed/ranched, generating 5% of the region's total revenues. Long-term sustainability threatened by increasing frequency severity droughts, heat waves, soil erosion, dust storms - with increasing probability of long-term dust bowl. Placing several million large wind turbines on just three percent of the Great Plains would generate 100% of U.S. current power consumption, while providing farmers/ranchers with royalties twice as large as from ranching/farming. This would enable regenerative restoration of soils and carbon storage by shifting to deep-rooted, drought resistant native prairie grasses. Bison co-evolved with prairie grasses, and offer another source of revenues from healthy meat production. Eco-tourism offers an additional revenue source, given the restoration of migratory bird flyways. And soil carbon storage offers another revenue opportunity. In sharp contrast to business-as-usual, an inevitable Austerity driven future, this win-win-wind strategy is a Prosperity driven future. This is the slide presentation that visualizes an accompanying paper also posted on my slideshare site.

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  • 1. Great Plains Thunder Express 21st Century style
  • 2. 2012 drought 1930s dust bowl
  • 3. Great Plains aquifer hot spots increasing
  • 4. 2050 Water Supply Sustainability Index with climate impact (no. countries) 2080 Temperature Rise - BAU
  • 5. 1930s Dust bowl - Reprisal in our future?
  • 6. Business-as-Usual CO2 Emissions Trigger Great Plains Dust Bowlification this Century Dallas, South Dakota 1936 Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century, but worse
  • 7. Time to Think Beyond the Box to Home on the Range
  • 8. 95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures  of  Merit Great  Plains  area 1,200,000  mi2 Provide  100%  U.S.  energy 400,000  3MW  wind  turbines PlaCorm  footprint 6  mi2 Large  Wyoming  Strip  Mine >6  mi2 Total  WindFarm  spacing  area   37,500  mi2 SLll  available  for  farming   and  prairie  restoraLon 90%+  (34,000  mi2) Cost-­‐free  US  CO2  emissions 80%  reduced  at  zero  cost  
  • 9. US Onshore Wind Potential (TWh, billions of kWh) for comparison U.S. total power consumption in 2012 was 5,000 TWh
  • 10. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while  also  enabling  one  of  world’s  largest   restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture) 10
  • 11. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits non-wind farm windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 govt. subsidy
  • 12. >6    mi2   1  Wyoming  Strip  Mine 13,125  mi2 land  disturbed  by  surface  mining 40%  of  U.S.  electricity 6    mi2   plaCorm  footprint  400k  turbines 3,750    mi2   spacing  area 100%  of  U.S.  electricity 12
  • 13. g WA MT AK ME ND MN OR MI ID WI SD IA NE PA UT IL KS MO AZ OK NM TX NJ MD DE VA NC AR SC MS MA CTRI WV TN HI HI HI IN KY HI HI OH CO CA NY MI WY NV VTNH AL shortage Statewide GA Regional LA AK Local FL None No response or uncertain GAO Survey of Likely Water Shortages this Decade under Average Conditions Figure IV-1. Survey of Likely Water Shortages over the Next Decade under Average Conditions (GAO, 2003) 29 Fossil & nuclear power accounted for 41% total water use - 143 million gals/d or 52 billion gals in 2005. 100% U.S. power from wind farms would have a total water use 95% less. 13
  • 14. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol offshore area needed for 100% Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage refer to storage of Solar-battery and Wind-battery of these intermittent renewable the resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles intermittent solar & wind in plug-in electric vehicles COMPARISON power require 30 to 60 times less land area than Solar PV & Wind OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES biomass, require 95% less water, and produce zero emissions Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  • 15. Potential Synergisms
  • 16. Deep-rooted, soil-retaining, water-regenerating, carbon-storing, biodiversity rich Prairie grasslands “I bequeath myself to the dirt, to grow from the grass I love; If you want me again, look for me under your boot-soles.” Walt Whitman
  • 17. Restoring soil, grasslands, water and climate
  • 18. Wes Jackson, The Land Institute, why native grasses are the perennial favorite
  • 19. Ted Turner, bison entrepreneur
  • 20. Reviving the great migrations
  • 21. Preserving the praire potholes
  • 22. Great Plains: Dust Bowlification or Dollarization? ActionMapping Wind farms for Rural Prosperity & Urban Clean Energy EXISTING 75% land farmed/ranched 5% revenues of Great Plains Dust Bowlification looming Water Aquifer deep decline OPPORTUNE 3% land in Wind Farms 10+% revenues Great Plains 100% US power generation Dust Bowl prevention option Prairie grasses/bison option Water Regeneration option
  • 23. Existing U.S. Transmission Grid System NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012 (a) Existing transmission grid representation in ReEDS Designed for Fossil, Nuclear & Hydro Power NOT Wind & Solar Power
  • 24. Opportune New Transmission Links NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012 Figure ES-9. New transmission capacity additions and conceptual location in the 80% RE-ITI scenario Designed for Wind & Solar Power Expansion
  • 25. On the Verge of Convergences GRIDS BUILDINGS VEHICLES Smart Integration Eliminating Oil Dependency LINKING 1 TW Smart Grid w/ 3 TW Vehicle fleet
  • 26. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize largescale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity) providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
  • 27. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84%  of  the  nation’s  cars,  pickup  trucks,  and  SUVs  (198  million). ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). higher coal generation - but none if from wind power. ONLY IF from Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  • 28. Accelerating RE-powered Electric Vehicles
  • 29. http://evworld.com/blogs.cfm?authorid=226&blogid=1123
  • 30. Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015 Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines
  • 31. Windy  Grassland  regions  of  the  World Source:  h.p://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html  
  • 32. 20 Year 100% Global RE Scenario IF conventional, then 17 TW OR WIND TURBINES - 5MW - 1% in place 25%/yr growth rate SOLAR PV ROOFTOPS - .003MW - <1% in place 40%/yr growth rate CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER - 300MW- <1% in place SOLAR PV POWER PLANTS - 300MW - <1% in place Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009 IF RE + DeepDive Efficiency then 11.5 TW
  • 33. Spurring Emission-Free Cities by Using COLLABORATIVE  INNOVATION    NETWORKs COINs Ad hoc self-organized groups of Self-Motivated Citizens, geographically dispersed, focused on accomplishing a specific goal
  • 34. Web-led COINs using smart devices to create ASSETs Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge Leveraging the funnel of knowledge and learning-by-doing
  • 35. COIN MAPPING Rural & Urban ASSETs Geospatial Mapping Web-based visualization of city ASSETS: harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar, locally distributed power and microgrid network. Tech-knowledge roadmapping Web-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning, applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy, regulatory, communications, etc) Action mapping Identify the goal. Identify what needs doing to reach that goal. Identify actions for people to do. Identify the effective information required to complete the action. emission-free city
  • 36. ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE Goal of becoming emission free In collaboration with the Association for the Advancement of Sustainable Higher Education
  • 37. ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAP & MAKE EMISSION FREE COMMUNITIES Mayors Leading the Way on Climate Protection 1,060 U.S. Cities as of 3/22/2013 70% of U.S. cities with 30,000+ citizens are signatories to the Mayors’ Climate Protection Commitment
  • 38. Documentary Production Team Chris Tribble Michael P Totten
  • 39. Contact: Michael P Totten totten.michael@gmail.com 1-303-974-8676 http://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelptotten

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