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Michael P Totten DENIN talk "Water in an Uncertain Climate Future" focusing on win-win solutions

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The DENIN Dialogue Series is a semiannual lecture series sponsored by the Delaware Environmental Institute (DENIN) that brings experts of international renown in environmental research and policy to …

The DENIN Dialogue Series is a semiannual lecture series sponsored by the Delaware Environmental Institute (DENIN) that brings experts of international renown in environmental research and policy to address the public at UD's Newark campus. Totten's presentation will be podcast on DENIN's iTunes U site following the lecture.
Totten will address the topic “Water in an Uncertain Climate Future.” Billions of people around the world are mired in poverty, are chronically ill, and lack adequate drinking water and basic sanitation services. Efforts to ensure water security now also contend with the impacts of climate change and the uncertainty in water flow and availability.
Water use is pervasive throughout the global economy but concentrated in agriculture (about 75 percent of water withdrawals worldwide) and thermal power plants (48 percent of off-stream use in the U.S.). A core concern is how to
deliver water services for these needs at least cost and risk while addressing issues of social equity and ecological integrity.
Totten will present the case that there are win-win-win pathways in addressing these multiple crises, and he will highlight
some of the evidence and experience to date in using innovative practices, policies and regulations in delivering water and water-related services.
He has nearly three decades of professional experience in promoting ecologically sustainable economic development at the local, national and international levels. At Conservation International's CELB, he engages corporations and public institutions in adopting strategies to shrink and offset the ecological footprints of goods and services throughout their lifecycle. He has given more than 1,500 presentations and written scores of publications.
Totten is the principal co-author of the 2008 book, A Climate for Life: Meeting the Global Challenge, an interdisciplinary perspective on preventing catastrophic climate change and human-triggered species extinction while providing robust
economic growth. He received the Lewis Mumford Prize for Environment in 2000 for pioneering the creation of interactive multimedia and Internet tools for spurring ecologically sustainable development. As senior adviser to U.S. Rep. Claudine Schneider (R-R.I.), he drafted the 1989 Global Warming Prevention Act, cosponsored by one-third of the House of Representatives.

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  • 1. Water in an Uncertain Climate Future Michael Totten, Chief Advisor, Climate, Water and Green Technologies, Conservation International Denin Dialogue Series Delaware Environmental Institute November 30, 2010
  • 2. 2 to 3% Annual Average $1,000 trillion GWP growth Gross World ~$100,000 per cap Product (GWP) in 21st # in poverty? Century (~10 to 20x today’s GWP) $500 trillion GWP ~$50,000 per cap # in poverty?$50 trillion GWP~$7,500 per cap2+ billion inpoverty 2005 2105 2105
  • 3. More absolute poor than any time Mass poverty in human history [alongside more wealth than ever]
  • 4. Where we will be by 2100 900ppm wierding Climate Parts per Million CO2Past planetary mass extinctionstriggered by high CO2 >550ppm
  • 5. 55 million years since oceans as acidic – business-as-usual emissions growth threaten collapse of marine life food web Acidifying Oceans 40% decline in phytoplankton – base of the marine food web -- past 50 yearsBernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL
  • 6. Species extinction by humans1000x natural background rate extinction Species
  • 7. Ecological Footprint
  • 8. Decline of North American Freshwater Fishes Fish species 8 times more threatened than mammals or birds in the USAMap source: Jelks, H. J., S. J.Walsh, N. M. Burkhead, S.Contreras-Balderas, E. Díaz-Pardo, D. A. Hendrickson, J.Lyons, N. E. Mandrak, F.McCormick, J. S. Nelson, S. P.Platania, B. A. Porter, C. B.Renaud, J. J. Schmitter-Soto, E.B. Taylor, and M. L. Warren, Jr.2008. Conservation status ofimperiled North Americanfreshwater and diadromousfishes. Fisheries 33(8): 372–40
  • 9. 37% Freshwater Fish Species Threatened% Sources: IUCN Red List 2009 for species threatened, and IUCN 2000 for map
  • 10. 2 billion people lack safe waterAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  • 11. Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  • 12. 4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaustphysical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poorAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  • 13. Incident Human Water Security ThreatSource: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and riverbiodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
  • 14. Incident Biodiversity ThreatSource: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
  • 15. Threat to Human Water Security & BiodiversitySource: C. J. Vorosmarty et al. 2010. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature. V.467 30 Sept. 2010
  • 16. Intensive farmingand grazingpractices anddeforestation inChina have led tomore frequent duststorms, like thisone in 2001 thatswept aerosolparticles into theGreat Lakes regionof the US, and evenleft a sprinkling inthe Alps mountainsin Europe.
  • 17. Increased dust in the Sahel, which can spread far out to sea (inset), has been linked toagriculture. Credit: J. Leyrer/NIOZ (photo); NASA (inset)
  • 18. Direction of change in water run-off by 2060 2 C increase 4 C increase drier areas dry further & wetter areas become wetterSource: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011369, 99-116
  • 19. Seasonal changes Mean Annual Run-off 2060 Nile Ganges Murray Darling +2 C +4 C Danube Mississippi Amazon +2 C increasing to +4 C by 2100Source: Fai Fung, Ana Lopez and Mark New. 2010. Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds References, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011369, 99-116
  • 20. Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity at +4°CWilliam Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.
  • 21. Interactions may result in societal impacts that aregreater than the sum of individual sectoral impacts
  • 22. Resource Wars &Conflicts
  • 23. Comparing Cumulative Emissions for 350 ppm CO2 TrajectoryGtCO2 BAU >80 GtCO2 and >850 ppm Based on 6 Celsius average global temperature rise due to greater climate sensitivity Need to reverse CO2 emissions by 2015 and become negative CO2 by 2050 to achieve <350 ppmMain difference between projections is assumption of rate of technology diffusion Source: F. Ackerman, E.A. Stanton, S.J. DeCanio et al., The Economics of 350: The Benefits and Costs of Climate Stabilization, October 2009, www.e3network.org/
  • 24. Where the world needs to go: energy-related CO2 emissions per capita >$/GDP/capSource: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
  • 25. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed: "rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINALVersion July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
  • 26. Averting catastrophes by Greening the Global Economy
  • 27. Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3 knowledge relationships of knowledge Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames Natural system Technical system Social systemBrugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing toodifferently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
  • 28. USA Water Chart 2004 45% US water use 75% US water consumption
  • 29. A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global- water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device
  • 30. WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment OptionsAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  • 31. WaterHealth International The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  • 32. WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, PurdueCalumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  • 33. Soft Water Path More productive, Less cost, Less damage Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water. Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices, often unconnected to the amount of water used. Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems, but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers. Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the world‟s irrigated area.Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of thePlanet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/
  • 34. Immense Water Waste The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annuallyWWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003
  • 35. Hoekstra, A.Y. (2008) Measuring your water footprint: What’s next in water strategy, Leading Perspectives, Summer 2008, pp. 12-13, 19,http://www.waterfootprint.org/?page=files/CorporateWaterFootprints.
  • 36. Energy/Water Integration Benefits during Drought PeriodsSource: Andrew Belden, Priscilla Cole, Holly Conte et al. 2008. Integrated Policy and Planning for Water and Energy,Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Univ. of Delaware.
  • 37. 1200 100,000+1000 Water consumption per kWh (relative to wind power=1)800600 1022400 784 552 541200 1 4 5 38 0
  • 38. Green Power or Megadamus negavitae?
  • 39. Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions Tucuruí dam, BrazilSt. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience50: 766–75,
  • 40. Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas Emissions: Emissions: Reservoir Generating km2/ Emissions DAM Hydro CC Gas Area Capacity Ratio MW (MtCO2- (MtCO2- (km2) (MW) Hydro/Gas eq/yr) eq/yr) Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4 Curuá- 72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5 Una Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the InternationalHydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
  • 41. What about Biofuels? The water requirements of energy derived from biomass are about 70 to 400 times more than that of other energy carriers such as fossil fuels, wind, and solar. More than 90% of the water needed is used in the production of the feedstock.Source: Gerbens-Leenes, P.W., A. Hoekstra, Th. van der Meer. 2008. Water footprint of bio-energy and other primaryenergy carriers. Value of Water Research Report Series No. 29. UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands..
  • 42. Projections of crop water use and irrigation withdrawals for bio-energySource: De Fraiture, C. & Berndes, G. 2009. Biofuels and water. Pages 139-153 in R.W. Howarth and S. Bringezu (Eds.)Biofuels: Environmental Consequences and Interactions with Changing Land Use. Proceedings of the Scientific Committeeon Problems of the Environment (SCOPE) International Biofuels Project Rapid Assessment, 22-25 September 2008,Gummersbach, Germany. Ithaca NY: Cornell University. http://cip.cornell.edu/biofuels/) .
  • 43. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs?By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha ofland required for agriculture.800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FORMEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-richhabitats under constant threat.
  • 44. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles? Solar-w/storage Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-w/storage turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Solar-storage and Wind-storage refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles, CAES or other storage technologiesMark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
  • 45. A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatilityafflicting every energy and power source used in driving economic activity Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –1336 Watts per m2 in the Photon Bit stream
  • 46. SUN FUSION PHOTONS
  • 47. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply byapplying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, andin dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of newland to make PV our primary energy source!
  • 48. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2+ million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solarLarry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  • 49. China Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in SwitzerlandByrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  • 50. China EconomicsCommercial BIPV Economics of of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  • 51. Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
  • 52. 21GW Global Cumulative PV Growth 1998-2008MW 40% annual growth rate Doubling <22 months 40% annual growth rate through 2030 could provide twice current total world energy use Compared to: Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009] Nuclear power 350,000 MW Hydro power 770,000 MW Natural Gas power 1 million MW Coal power 2 million MW 2009
  • 53. What Annual Growth Rate Can Solar PV Sustain this Century? 16,000,000 14,000,000 Solar PV Growth@ 25% perper year Solar PV Growth @ 25% year 12,000,000Megawatts 10,000,000 59 8,000,000 6,000,000 TW 4,000,000 by 2,000,000 2075 0 2000 1 2009 4 2021 7 2033 10 2045 13 2057 16 2089 2069 2069 19 Year Equal to total world consumption in 2009 16,000,000 Solar PV Growth@ 15% per per year Solar PV Growth @ 15% year 14,000,000 12,000,000 59Megawatts 10,000,000 8,000,000 TW 6,000,000 by 4,000,000 2119 2,000,000 0 2000 2009 2029 2049 2069 2089 2109 1 4 7 10 13 16 2109 19 Year
  • 54. Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,zweibel@gwu.edu , http://Solar.gwu.edu/
  • 55. Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
  • 56. Solar power beats thermal plants within their construction lead time—at zero carbon priceSource: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
  • 57. Federal Research & Development Funds Billion $ 2008 constant 90 $85 2 80Civilian Nuclear Power 70(1948 – 2009) 60vs. 50 40Solar Photovoltaics 30(1975-2009) 20 10 $4.2 1 0 1 2 PV NUCLEAR
  • 58. GIS Mapping the Solar Potential of Urban Rooftops 100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND, WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this CenturyGermanys SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.
  • 59. Solar smart poly-gridsContinuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energyprovided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream basedon real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data withadministrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.
  • 60. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power AuctionsSmart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital mapalgorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rankexpansion of solar panel locations.
  • 61. Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Consumption Coal Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian‟s have net savings of $1,000 per family California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
  • 62. Achieving the 2050 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal How Far Can We Reach with Energy Efficiency?, Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner, California EnergyCommission, (916) 654-4930, ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US , http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html
  • 63. CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020 Breakdown by abatement type: • 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry & agriculture) • 6 Gt energy efficiency • 4 Gt low carbon energy supplyZero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings theincremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is $66-96 billion per year between 2010–2020 fordeveloping countries and $48–60 billion for developed countries, or less than 1 % of global GDP, orabout half the $258 billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.
  • 64. Universal symbol for Efficiency eta η The best thing about low- hanging fruit is that it keeps growing back.SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
  • 65. ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS Now use 1/2 global power50% efficiency savings achievable 90% cost savings
  • 66. Cost of new delivered electricity (cents per kWh) CCS US current average nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • 67. How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity 2¢ 50 33 25 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • 68. 2¢ 47 Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services 1¢: 93 kg CO2/$ 32 23 nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use cogen cogen ind cogen efficiencyAmory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  • 69. Michael Totten Conservation International mtotten@conservation.orgTHANK YOU!
  • 70. Hypoxia Dead Zones due to Agriculture fertilizer run-off
  • 71. Mississippi River DeltaUsing Wastewater Pollutants as Feedstock for Biofuel Production through Algae Systems Yangtze River Pearl River
  • 72. Small Land footprint Only Wastewater as FeedstockButanol, Biodiesel and Clean Water Outputs
  • 73. Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  • 74. Nutrient Rich Water Clean water (Sewage, polluted river water) Lower N P P, higher O2 + pH ATS + atmospheric CO2 Less CO2 in atmosphere (or power plant stack gases) ALGAL CO2 BIOMASS Biobutanol Solvent Fermenter Extraction (Clostridium butylicum Oil Ethanol C. Pasteurianum, etc.) Acetone C6H12O6  C4H9OH + CO2 + … Transesterification Lactic Acid Acetic Acid Organic Biodiesel FertilizerSource: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  • 75. Biofuel Production from Algal Turf Scrubber Biomass (50 tons per acre or 125 tons per hectare per year, dry) Estimated Biofuel Production (gallons per acre or ha per year) Algae butanol 1520 + 2000 biodiesel [3,770 gal/ha/yr] [5,000 gal/ha/yr] Corn (ethanol) 500 ---- [1,250 gal/ha/yr] Soy (biodiesel) ---- 100 [250 gal/ha/yr]Source: Walter Adey, Director, Marine Systems, Smithsonian Institute, email: ADEYW@si.edu ph: 202 633-0923
  • 76. 95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 3MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total WindFarm spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40% USA total GHG emissions
  • 77. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How?The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota,South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains= Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  • 78. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  • 79. Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s Again this century?

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