Biocomplexity Decisionmaking 03 07 09

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Michael P Totten presentation on "Biocomplexity Decisionmaking -- Innovative approaches to the inter-connected challenges of Climate destabilization, Species extinction and Mass poverty" at the 2009 Pew Foundation Annual Meeting, Programs in Biomedical Sciences, San Juan, Puerto, Rico. 125 slides showing connections and common solutions for addressing climate catastrophe, mass poverty, species extinction, and resource wars.

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Biocomplexity Decisionmaking 03 07 09

  1. 1. Biocomplexity Decisionmaking Innovative approaches to the inter-connected challenges of Climate destabilization, Species extinction and Mass poverty 2009 Pew Annual Meeting Programs in Biomedical Sciences Michael Totten mtotten@conservation.org
  2. 2. www.nsf.org BIOCOMPLEXITY - the complex behavioral, biological, social, chemical, and physical interactions of living organisms with their environment.
  3. 3. New England Complex Systems Institute, Visualizing Complex Systems Science, www.necsi.org
  4. 4. 4 TRENDS – Inextricably Interwoven EXTINCTION SPASM CLIMATE CATASTROPHE FOOD & WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY
  5. 5. POST 9/11 VULNERABILITY DISRUPTION First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
  6. 6. A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
  7. 7. SEVERE AIR & WATER POLLUTION, DISLOCATED REFUGEES
  8. 8. Climate Catastrophe
  9. 9. Climate Solution Resources www.climateprogress.org/ www.realclimate.org/ www.aclimateforlife.org/
  10. 10. Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere rs u o h 4 4 ry e v e 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
  11. 11. 6°C
  12. 12. $2.5 trillion almost a quarter of the US economy is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.
  13. 13. Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
  14. 14. Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed: quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction Martin Weitzman …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment.quot; MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
  15. 15. Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2008 now 45GtCO2 2050 reduce to <10 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <4 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
  16. 16. Century of Global Economic Growth Compared with Today /y r yr 3% x / 2% 19 7x
  17. 17. GAIN Science & Technologies GENETICS AUTOROBOTICS NANOTECH INFORMATICS
  18. 18. The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
  19. 19. Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
  20. 20. Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions oil gas coal forests geothermal Assumes: agriculture 1% 2% 1% 5% biomass1% 5% 10% 1) Global economic bldgs EE growth 2-3% 15% per year all wind century long; 15% 2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains; transport EE 15% 3) Combined solar carbon cap & 15% carbon tax industry EE 15%
  21. 21. “Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year in Billion tons CO2 mitigation services available in 25 poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use 14 million hectares burned each year IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
  22. 22. 6th largest extinction – 1000 times natural background rate 1800 species populations extirpated every hour
  23. 23. Direct yields from tropical lands converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber: equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton. Sir Nicholas Stern Avoided Deforestation offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options. Unchecked, deforestation could increase atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by up to 130 ppm this century. CONTRASTING ACTIONS: $45 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants. The same amount of money would prevent the release of 6 times this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
  24. 24. U.S. fossil Electricity CO2 Geological storage (CCS) vs mitigation cost annually Ecological storage (REDD) (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007) Carbon Mitigation Cost $ per ton CO2 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) $50 $45 ~$100 billion $40 ~3 ¢ per kWh $35 $30 $25 Reduced Emissions $20 Deforestation & Degradation (REDD) $15 $10 ~$18 billion $5 ~0.5 ¢ per kWh $- 0 CCS REDD Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008
  25. 25. U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO2 2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh $18 billion REDD trade Poverty reduction Prevent Species loss Tropical Deforestation 2007 30 million acres burned 7 billion tons CO2 emissions A win- win-win outcome
  26. 26. 480 gallons per year 4.8 tons GHG emissions = per year (25 mpg x 12,000 miles per year) $48 to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation & Degradation (REDD) Adds 8.5 cents per gallon
  27. 27. Madagascar Makira Reserve - Protecting & restoring wilderness, while helping people, species & climate
  28. 28. Ecuador collaborative offset projects Preserve habitat for threatened Andean Spectacled Bear, Howler Monkey, and Northern Naked Tailed Armadillo
  29. 29. FCCB Forest Restoration for Climate, Community and Biodiversity
  30. 30. Various Types of Private Tropical Forest Financial Instruments John O. Niles, Driving Private Capital to Conserve Tropical Forests: Current Frameworks & Policy Ideas, 2009 Forest Carbon Finance Summit, Harvard University’s Program on International Financial Systems, 03-04-09, www.law.harvard.edu/programs/pifs/fcfsbb2009.html
  31. 31. Bioprospecting biological wealth Using biotechnological tools One-quarter all medical drugs used in developed world from plants. Cortisone and first oral contraceptives derived from Central American yam species Pacific yew in western US yielded anti-cancer drug taxol Vincristine from the Rosy Periwinkle in Madagascar Drug to prevent blood clotting from snake venom Active ingredient aspirin synthesized from willow trees.
  32. 32. Bioprospecting biological wealth Using biotechnological tools Biomolecules prospected from different bioresources for pesticidal, therapeutic and other agriculturally important compounds Biomolecules for Industrial and Medicinal Use Novel Genes/Promoters To Address Biotic And Abiotic Stress Genes for Transcription Factors Metabolic Engineering Pathways Nutritional Enhancement Bioavailability of Elements Microbial Biodiversity
  33. 33. Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting Forest Area No. of EndemicSimpson et WTP given a Biodiversity ``Hot Spot'' (1,000 ha) Plant Species al. WTP hit, rho=.001 Western Ecuador 250 2188 $21 $580 Southwestern Sri Lanka 70 500 $17 $2,562 New Caledonia 150 790 $12 $1,414 Madagascar 1,000 2911 $7 $94 Western Ghats of India 800 1620 $5 $237 Philippines 800 1582 $5 $240 Atlantic Coast of Brazil 2,000 3750 $4 $26 Uplands of Western Amazonia 3,500 3846 $3 $14 Tanzania 600 528 $2 $307 Cape Floristic Province of South Africa 8,900 6278 $2 $1 Peninsular Malaysia 2,600 1624 $1 $73 Southwestern Australia 5,470 2831 $1 $18 Ivory Coast 400 194 $1 $236 Northern Borneo 6,400 2674 $1 $17 Eastern Himalayas 5,300 2205 $1 $27 Colombian Choco 7,200 2303 $1 $19 Central Chile 4,600 1450 $1 $44 California Floristic Province 24,600 2136 $0 $6 Sean B. Cash. 2002. quot;The Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting,quot; abstract published in Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 31:2.
  34. 34. Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting WTP Given Expected WTP for the Biodiversity ``Hot Spot'' 2% Habitat Loss Last Hectare (rho = 0.001) (rho=0) Western Ecuador $673 $1,479,947 Southwestern Sri Lanka $2,947 $465,027 New Caledonia $1,628 $607,524 Madagascar $109 $1,392,597 Western Ghats of India $274 $819,456 Philippines $278 $800,133 Atlantic Coast of Brazil $30 $1,508,540 Uplands of Western Amazonia $16 $1,345,077 Tanzania $353 $286,998 Cape Floristic Province of South Africa $1 $1,738,829 Peninsular Malaysia $84 $611,717 Southwestern Australia $21 $885,702 Ivory Coast $271 $116,640 Northern Borneo $20 $804,217 Eastern Himalayas $31 $695,363 Colombian Choco $22 $672,580 Central Chile $51 $473,654 California Floristic Province $7 $458,829 Sean B. Cash. 2002. quot;The Value of Habitat Conservation for Bioprospecting,quot; abstract published in Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 31:2.
  35. 35. Mass Poverty More Absolute Poor than any time in Human History
  36. 36. Economic Pyramid Mature markets: >$20,000/yr Emerging markets: 75-100 million people >$2,000-20,000/yr 1.75 billion people Bottom of Pyramid Survival markets: <$2,000/yr 4 billion people
  37. 37. 2 billion people lack safe water Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  38. 38. Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  39. 39. 4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  40. 40. A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA • Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection • Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3) Dr Ashok Gadgil, LBL, inventor • Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water • Reliable, Mature components • Can treat unpressurized water • Rapid throughput: 12 seconds • Low maintenance: 4x per year • No overdose risk • Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, WaterHealth Intl device Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global- water%202008.pdf
  41. 41. WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  42. 42. WaterHealth International The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
  43. 43. Bottom of the Pyramid Growth Creating a World Without Poverty Social Business and the future of Capitalism Three to four $100 microfinance loans enable most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty
  44. 44. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  45. 45. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  46. 46. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  47. 47. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  48. 48. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  49. 49. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
  50. 50. Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) This is an unique combination of Grameen Bank and Grameen Shakti’s integrated effort for poverty reduction. • Solar Photovoltaic (PV) System is being used for mobile phone charging. • Telephone lady earns US$100 per month from this pay phone. • The system also help her children for their education.
  51. 51. RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES Brick house construction is still widely used in many Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year. The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.
  52. 52. DOZEN CRITERIA Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system 1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? 2. Safe through the entire life cycle? 3. Clean through the entire lifespan? 4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility? 5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? 6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity? 7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality? 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time? 10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities? 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities? 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
  53. 53. Uninteresting military target A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Fails gracefully, not catastro Promote Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically Affordable Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS
  54. 54. USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply $700 billion per year in energy bill savings Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year. Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year. Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
  55. 55. About $800 billion per year (at 8% of $10 trillion U.S. economy) 100 years of Cumulative Energy Costs at 2.5%/yr GDP Growth ■USA $355 trillion (out of total of $4,444 trillion GNP) ■GLOBAL $1,422 trillion (out of total $17,774 trillion GWP) 200 1970 6
  56. 56. end-use bldg scale recycled nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  57. 57. How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity end-use bldg scale recycled CC ind nuclear coal CC gas wind farm ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  58. 58. Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services end-use bldg scale recycled CC ind nuclear coal CC gas wind farm ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
  59. 59. CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs) BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years – 113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum. SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$150 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions. Envision eliminating the need this century for: AND 2,500 giant AND 1,674 AND 4.25 3.5 billion offshore oil large nuclear million LNG coal rail platforms. reactors. road cars. tanker shipments.
  60. 60. KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING Aligning utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency, onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities. Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins Ralph Cavanagh
  61. 61. “Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants” For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Coal Consumption Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian’s have net savings of $1,000 per family Utility’s Earnings Go Up even as Revenues Go Down Customers’ Bills Go Down even as Rates Go Up
  62. 62. $1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
  63. 63. CFL factories displace Powerplants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps. source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991
  64. 64. Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All: Supplier Chain Factories & Products Efficiency Outcomes Demand Facts 2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal Industrial electric motor systems to 1/4th all coal plants to be built consume 40% of electricity through 2030 worldwide. worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per $240 billion direct savings per decade. year. $200 to $400 billion benefits per Retrofit savings of 30%, New decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. SO2 and NOx. SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive Support SEEEM (Standards market transformation strategy to promote efficient for Energy Efficiency of industrial electric motor systems worldwide Electric Motor Systems)
  65. 65. ZERO NET ENERGY GREEN BUILDINGS The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, Public library – North Carolina A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value Oberlin College Ecology Center, Heinz Foundation Ohio Green Building, PA
  66. 66. High-E Windows displacing gas pipelines Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.
  67. 67. Avoided Emissions & Savings each China Efficiency Power Plant Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP) (1.8 billion kWh per year) Eliminates 7,000 railroad car shipments of coal each year Avoids burning 700,000 tons coal Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2 Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2 Avoids toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals Avoids 70,000 tons/year of sludge waste Saves 45 billion gallons waters Accrues $67.5 million annual savings Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year And generates several times more jobs per $ of investment Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT T
  68. 68. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
  69. 69. Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
  70. 70. Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
  71. 71. Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
  72. 72. Water Shortages
  73. 73. Global Water Consumption • Humanity consumes half of global freshwater flow 5,235 • No major river in the world is without existing or planned hydroelectric dams Increasing freshwater use 3,973 Total annual water • 2/3 of the freshwater withdrawal historical flowing to the oceans is & projected, in cubic controlled by dams kilometers 1,382 Yet…. 579 1950 2000 2025 1900 Clark, Robin & Jannet King, The Water Atlas, New Press, 2004.
  74. 74. Immense Water Shortages projected population 10 billion • 1 billion people without safe 4-5 billion water total population May live in countries 6 billion that are 0.5 billion • 4 billion yet to be born will need chronically lived in short of countries water additional freshwater in decades chronically short of to come water Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, and P. R. Ehrlich, 1996, Human appropriation of renewable fresh water, Science 271:785- 2000 2050 788, www.sciencemag.org/; Gleick PH, et al. 2003, The world's water 2002–2003, www.pacinst.org/; Jackson, Robert B., et al., Water in a Changing World, Issues in Ecology, Technical Report, Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp. 1027–1045, Ecological Society of America, www.esapubs.org/
  75. 75. Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.
  76. 76. Immense Water Waste The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003
  77. 77. Soft Water Path More productive, Less cost, Less damage Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water. Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices, often unconnected to the amount of water used. Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems, but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers. Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the world’s irrigated area. Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/
  78. 78. Reverse Osmosis (RO) & Cogeneration (CHP) Synergism for Clean Water China’s total wastewater discharges annually exceed 60 km3,(16 trillion gallons), and less than 1/7th treated as of the late 1990s. 600 million Chinese have water supplies that are contaminated by animal and human waste. Harnessing 30 GW of CHP in cities & industrial facilities could operate RO technologies to purify these wastewaters, while also providing ancillary energy services like space and water heating & cooling. Desalination of wastewater has double benefits: reduces contaminated discharges directly into rivers, and economically expands city freshwater supplies rather than importing remote water resources.
  79. 79. Reverse Osmosis (RO) of Wastewater Reverse Osmosis estimates considered valid for China today ranges from a cost of $0.60 per m3 (1000 liters) for brackish and wastewater desalination to $1 per m3 for seawater desalination by RO. Extrapolating from technological trends, and the promise of ongoing innovations in lower- cost, higher performance membranes, seawater desalination costs may decline to $0.30 per m3 before 2025.
  80. 80. RO of Wastewater into Clean Water For comparison, China’s water prices are more than $0.60/m3 in Tianjin and Dalian, and the price of urban water supply in Beijing is $0.72 per m3. This RO plant in Ashkelon, Israel, turns out 100 million m3 of fresh water/yr, at $0.53 cents per m3, the cheapest ever by a desalination facility.
  81. 81. Global Web Mesh
  82. 82. Global Wired Mesh Resources http://www.shirky.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ www.wikinomics.com/ The_Wealth_of_Networks And incredible video at: And incredible video at: http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/ www.youtube.com/watc 855937/ h?v=NgYE75gkzkM
  83. 83. 5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet
  84. 84. “the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web” collective intelligence published content published user user content generated generated content content 45 million global users 1 billion+ global users
  85. 85. The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
  86. 86. Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality. http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/ 100 million hours to create Wikipedia – same as hours Americans watch TV ads each weekend. The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo oking-for-the-mouse.html One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
  87. 87. Web3.0+ Semantically-linked RW web 1 trillion sites Collective intelligence Smart Grid published User generated content content 3 billion global users 2010-2012
  88. 88. 5000 days ago Pre-Web 5000 days from now Global Cloud Network Pre-Commercial Internet
  89. 89. Classifying user-generated information where every click is a datum Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
  90. 90. Gathering Data & Harvesting Collective Intelligence
  91. 91. A user interacts with items, which have associated metadata Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
  92. 92. Ways users provide valuable information through their interactions Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
  93. 93. Harnessing Collective Intelligence to: Prevent Climate Catastrophe Avert Mass Species Extinction Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being
  94. 94. Sun Data Transmission Rate EVERY SECOND, the sun produces 400 trillion TW more energy than human civilizations have ever produced in history.
  95. 95. Information Bit Stream
  96. 96. Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
  97. 97. Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
  98. 98. Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
  99. 99. “Accordion”-structured Solar PV Finance Compensation for power at retail electric rates • Federal & State Tax credits • Financing, leasing, and depreciation options • Utility Net-metering options and/or rate-based incentives • Building credits for architectural applications • Willingness to pay for clean power and innovation • Quality of solar resource and customer load match • Progressive state government, regulatory, and utility support. Source: Christy Herig, Customer-Sited Photovoltaics Focusing PVs are cost-effective at $6 to $7 per watt. on Markets that Really Shine, 2002, www.nrel.gov/
  100. 100. LEED Certified Green Buildings CA GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
  101. 101. MOBILITY & ACCESS
  102. 102. Complete the Streets A Complete Street is safe, comfortable and convenient for travel via automobile, foot, bicycle, and transit. www.completestreets.org
  103. 103. Portland Oregon 1990 Bike lanes encourage bike commuting Black lines …Colors show show 1990 1990 mode bikeway splits network... (by census tract) Bike Commute Mode Split 0 - 2% 2 - 3% 3 - 5% 5 - 8% 8 - 10% City of Portland 10+% Dept. of Transportation www.completestreets.org
  104. 104. Portland Oregon 2000 Bike lanes encourage bike commuting Black lines show 2000 …Colors show bikeway 2000 mode network... splits (by census tract) Bike Commute Mode Split 0 - 2% 2 - 3% 3 - 5% 5 - 8% 8 - 10% City of Portland 10+% Dept. of Transportation www.completestreets.org
  105. 105. Success Complete canopy closure Trees planted sufficiently apart in a planting strip 10 feet wide; this spacing allowed for the crowns of individual trees to touch, encouraging development of a more natural upright form; The 10' wide planting strip allowed the trunk flare to develop appropriately State College, Pennsylvania Saint Augustine, Florida Seattle, Washington
  106. 106. Convergences & Emergences Vehicle-to-Grid Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet
  107. 107. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
  108. 108. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
  109. 109. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
  110. 110. 95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
  111. 111. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
  112. 112. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits non-wind farm windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm $0 $60 govt. subsidy $200 $0 windpower royalty $50 $64 farm commodity revenues Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
  113. 113. Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
  114. 114. Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.
  115. 115. FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY
  116. 116. COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS
  117. 117. WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS
  118. 118. ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - LAND, FOOD & WATER
  119. 119. thank you
  120. 120. Presentations & Publications by Michael P Totten www.slideshare.net/mptotten/slideshows www.scribd.com/mtotten6756

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