Is the Future Here Already?        Marc Prioleau       Prioleau Advisors      www.prioleauadv.com
“The future has already arrived. Its just not           evenly distributed yet.”                                    Willia...
Agenda•   Some History•   My Hypothesis•   The Big Trends•   Implications•   M&A in the Location Space
“The K-Mart of Navigation”• Navigation, Circa 1995• Delco Telepath 100• “The system is  rudimentary”                      ...
Evolution of Capabilities                                      Tablets                           SmartPhones/App Stores   ...
Evolution of Mobile Location                                         Location Context                                     ...
Hypothesis• The Mobile experience is driving the User Expectations• User expectations will drive user behavior, regardless...
Why Does it Matter? • New business models disrupt established                                                  Online   mo...
Not Covering•   Passenger Infotainment•   Car-to-infrastructure•   Vehicle CRM•   Car-to-car Communications•   Specific Im...
Local Search• Most highly monetized  online revenue   • Online local search has     disrupted off-line• Well adopted, evol...
Ads in cars?• Appropriate?  • Strong sentiment that ads    may not be relevant while    driving• Feasible?  • Can it drive...
Blurring of Desktop and Mobile• Online behavior is no longer segmented into  “mobile” behaviors and “desktop” behaviors• C...
Location-Based Advertising• Spending on on-line  (hyper-)local advertising  remains defiantly small                       ...
Reach vs Radius (& Relevance)• Conversation with  Mobile Ad company:                         Auto Dealer  • Importance of ...
New Category: Driving Search• Search while driving = high  relevance   • Intent   • Immediacy   • Proximity• Local search ...
Integration of Real Time Content•   Traffic Information•   Parking Availability•   Speed Cameras•   Real-Time Offers    • ...
New Idea: The Mobile GeofenceStatic Geofence:             Mobile                             Geofence:• Geofence around  s...
Search becoming Social               TravelSearch                    Reviews
Social Influence• Social is no longer a discreet  segment of online• Every aspect of Online will  have a social component ...
Social Structure• Social is evolving around  major “Engagement  Platforms” plus many  specialized apps• Building on the en...
Which Social Network?• All have slightly  different aspects• Not all will succeed   • Some may be just     proving a marke...
FacebookOpenGraph: More than Likes                                                                   PLACE• OpenGraph allo...
Last Week from FacebookWe are also launching APIs to allow applications to read thisdata. With permission, it will allow a...
Implications of Social for Auto• Not about checking Facebook  while driving• Social recommendations in  “Driving Search”• ...
Twitter?• Not what you had for breakfast• Is real-time Micro-Publishing  about:   •   Events   •   Traffic/Accidents   •  ...
The Maligned Check-In• Foursquare pioneered the  check-in  • Semi-Interesting social    gesture  • Very interesting engage...
Context: Personalization• Mobile phones are ground  zero for online  personalization   •   Apps   •   Contacts   •   Calen...
Phones track location…a lot
Habits• Habits involve:              Brain Activity  • Trigger  • Habit  • Reward• Mobile Phone use is  driving the habits...
Don’t Believe Me?
Five Behavior Cues• Time of day• Emotional State• Other People• Preceding event and…..(drum roll please)• LOCATION
Local Context• Location is one of Five Key Behavioral Cues• Location helps define:  •   Behavior/habits  •   Lifestyle  • ...
Let’s Be Social Scientists….
Marc’s Last 30 Days                                                  Marc is:                                             ...
Marc’s Last 30 Days                                          Marc is:                           Squaw Valley   •   From Ca...
Marc’s Last 30 Days                                             Marc is:                                             •   F...
Marc’s Last 30 Days                  Marc is:                  •   From California Downtown San     •   In Telecom   Franc...
Which would you try to sell Marc?   Mani-Pedi          Ski Vacation
Business ModelsDo you want to:                                  ?•   Sell Vehicles•   Build Brand Loyalty•   Sell Auto Ele...
Key for Future: Partnerships• Competition is driving  integrated solutions• Many parts are needed• They will not self-asse...
M&A in the Location Business• 40-50 M&A Transactions/Year  since 2007                                             $3.5B $3...
Look at the Big Picture• Think of the bounds of  the problem you solve• What Parts:   •   Do you have now?   •   Can you d...
Thank Youmarc@prioleauadv.comwww.prioleauadv.com
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Beyond Maps Forum 2012 Keynote

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Keynote presentation from the Beyond Maps Forum, hosted by Sensis in Melbourne Australia. March 2012. Looking at trends in mobile location and the implications for the automotive market.

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  • As we look at the future of automotive navigation “Beyond Maps”, need to realize that the future of auto will be heavily influenced by trends that are happening already.
  • iPhone Intro MacWorld 2007iPad 2010
  • 2004: Local Search; Launch of Google Maps2008: Started to see location based advertising2009: Foursquare launched at SXSW: Social locationContext: Starting to emerge
  • Way beyond wanting to check Facebook status updates while drivingSocial recommendations will find a way into driving search
  • 2007: TA, NAVTEQ2008: Semiconductor space (ST Micro buys NXP
  • Beyond Maps Forum 2012 Keynote

    1. 1. Is the Future Here Already? Marc Prioleau Prioleau Advisors www.prioleauadv.com
    2. 2. “The future has already arrived. Its just not evenly distributed yet.” William Gibson
    3. 3. Agenda• Some History• My Hypothesis• The Big Trends• Implications• M&A in the Location Space
    4. 4. “The K-Mart of Navigation”• Navigation, Circa 1995• Delco Telepath 100• “The system is rudimentary” Gary Dickson President, Delco Master of Understatement
    5. 5. Evolution of Capabilities Tablets SmartPhones/App Stores Data Networks Digital Maps Location (GPS)1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
    6. 6. Evolution of Mobile Location Location Context Social-Location Location Advertising Local Search Navigation1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
    7. 7. Hypothesis• The Mobile experience is driving the User Expectations• User expectations will drive user behavior, regardless of attempts to “manage” that behavior• Therefore, the in-car experience will be impacted by the core aspects of mobile…• Or else people will drive with smartphones on their knee… So how will Search, Social and Location Context impact the in-vehicle experience?
    8. 8. Why Does it Matter? • New business models disrupt established Online models Loyalty engagement Online Local Foot traffic Search Marketing Location Context Upfront sell Social-Location Subscription Location Advertising Local Search Navigation1995 2000 2005 2010 2012
    9. 9. Not Covering• Passenger Infotainment• Car-to-infrastructure• Vehicle CRM• Car-to-car Communications• Specific Implementations
    10. 10. Local Search• Most highly monetized online revenue • Online local search has disrupted off-line• Well adopted, evolving merchant models• Penetrating into most Connected Car concepts
    11. 11. Ads in cars?• Appropriate? • Strong sentiment that ads may not be relevant while driving• Feasible? • Can it drive new business models?• My Guess: Inevitable
    12. 12. Blurring of Desktop and Mobile• Online behavior is no longer segmented into “mobile” behaviors and “desktop” behaviors• Can search, find, research, compare, respond, purchase, discuss …equally well on Mobile and Desktop.• Implication: What I saw on my desktop, I may buy off my mobile• Where does the vehicle fit into this?
    13. 13. Location-Based Advertising• Spending on on-line (hyper-)local advertising remains defiantly small Cost (CPM) The Location Ad Divide• Locations Services and Brands talking past each other Reach
    14. 14. Reach vs Radius (& Relevance)• Conversation with Mobile Ad company: Auto Dealer • Importance of location: 8 out of 10 Reach • Understanding of Coffee Shop Location: 4 out of 10 Radius (Relevance-1)
    15. 15. New Category: Driving Search• Search while driving = high relevance • Intent • Immediacy • Proximity• Local search • Radius not as relevant • Why not Headlight: Along route • Why not Predictive: Tied into Diary/PIM
    16. 16. Integration of Real Time Content• Traffic Information• Parking Availability• Speed Cameras• Real-Time Offers • Slack Time Marketing• Loyalty Programs
    17. 17. New Idea: The Mobile GeofenceStatic Geofence: Mobile Geofence:• Geofence around static object • Geofence around Mobile (auto)• Action triggered when mobile • Triggers controled detected in static by mobile geofence • Better control of privacy, preferences, timing
    18. 18. Search becoming Social TravelSearch Reviews
    19. 19. Social Influence• Social is no longer a discreet segment of online• Every aspect of Online will have a social component • Communication • Search • Reviews • Marketing • Buying/eCommerce
    20. 20. Social Structure• Social is evolving around major “Engagement Platforms” plus many specialized apps• Building on the engagement platform means: • Faster, cheaper distribution • Less control over the business model
    21. 21. Which Social Network?• All have slightly different aspects• Not all will succeed • Some may be just proving a market• Google + is TBD
    22. 22. FacebookOpenGraph: More than Likes PLACE• OpenGraph allows application developers tie directly into the 800+M Users in the Facebook Social Graph• Push is on for new Verbs: More specific descriptors of what friends are doing
    23. 23. Last Week from FacebookWe are also launching APIs to allow applications to read thisdata. With permission, it will allow any application that aperson is interacting with to access the places that thatperson and their friends have visited. This will allow travelapps to create trip suggestions based on vacations taken byyour friends or suggest customized experiences to peoplebased on their current location. A person arriving in a newcity can get restaurant suggestions, hotel recommendations,and advice on the best gyms to use based on the placestheir friends in the area frequent to make the experienceeasier.
    24. 24. Implications of Social for Auto• Not about checking Facebook while driving• Social recommendations in “Driving Search”• What verbs will be important in the driving experience? • Visiting, touring, looking for…• Crowd-sourced data for Traffic, usage, lines, etc.
    25. 25. Twitter?• Not what you had for breakfast• Is real-time Micro-Publishing about: • Events • Traffic/Accidents • Offers • Sights• Twitter needs better location filtering
    26. 26. The Maligned Check-In• Foursquare pioneered the check-in • Semi-Interesting social gesture • Very interesting engagement mechanism• Problem: Check-In fatigue• Evolution: Auto Check-In
    27. 27. Context: Personalization• Mobile phones are ground zero for online personalization • Apps • Contacts • Calendar • Communications• Integration of phone with vehicle now underway in several ways
    28. 28. Phones track location…a lot
    29. 29. Habits• Habits involve: Brain Activity • Trigger • Habit • Reward• Mobile Phone use is driving the habits Source: MIT Brain & Cognitive Sciences Dept.
    30. 30. Don’t Believe Me?
    31. 31. Five Behavior Cues• Time of day• Emotional State• Other People• Preceding event and…..(drum roll please)• LOCATION
    32. 32. Local Context• Location is one of Five Key Behavioral Cues• Location helps define: • Behavior/habits • Lifestyle • Demographics • “Personal Map” • Unusual Events
    33. 33. Let’s Be Social Scientists….
    34. 34. Marc’s Last 30 Days Marc is: • From California • In Telecom High Zurich • CheapConcentration 26Feb & 1 Mar • A Swiss Air Traveler 24 Comercio Barcelona Restaurant 26Feb-1Mar
    35. 35. Marc’s Last 30 Days Marc is: Squaw Valley • From California 11-12 Feb • In Telecom • Cheap • A Swiss Air traveler • From SF Bay Area1000’s of points • A skier
    36. 36. Marc’s Last 30 Days Marc is: • From California University Ave 1000’s of points • In Telecom • Cheap • A Swiss Air traveler • From SF Bay Area • A skier • From Palo AltoTrain Station • Likes to get coffee on University Ave • A train rider
    37. 37. Marc’s Last 30 Days Marc is: • From California Downtown San • In Telecom Francisco, • Cheap Mon, Weds, 8-6 • A Swiss Air traveler • From SF Bay Area • A skier • From Palo Alto • Likes to get coffee on University Ave • A train rider • In downtown SF two days/week for work
    38. 38. Which would you try to sell Marc? Mani-Pedi Ski Vacation
    39. 39. Business ModelsDo you want to: ?• Sell Vehicles• Build Brand Loyalty• Sell Auto Electronics• Sell Services/Subscriptions• Sell Local advertising
    40. 40. Key for Future: Partnerships• Competition is driving integrated solutions• Many parts are needed• They will not self-assemble• Partnerships need to be meaningful, focused on Big Picture
    41. 41. M&A in the Location Business• 40-50 M&A Transactions/Year since 2007 $3.5B $3.0B• Many “Acqui-Hires” $15B $.5B $1.7B• A Few Mercy Killings• Relatively Few Big Deals Market does not yet have Pattern Recognition Source: Location Technology M&A Project
    42. 42. Look at the Big Picture• Think of the bounds of the problem you solve• What Parts: • Do you have now? • Can you develop? • Should you partner for? • Should you acquire• Have a plan!
    43. 43. Thank Youmarc@prioleauadv.comwww.prioleauadv.com
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