Predictions 2010

Predictions 2010 Cloudy with A Chance of Alarm Michael Cairns Information Media Partners January 2010 © Michael Cairns : Use with Attribution only

Better or Worse?
During 2009 Book Publishing a winner
Contrast: Magazines, newspapers, some television
No ‘resurrection’ during 2009
Executives guarded about immediate future
Anticipated short to medium term problems with education and library funding

Maturing Macro Trends
Educational segment development
Electronic content and applications
Testing, assessment
Increasing not slowing
“ New” not migrated products
Speak about “databases” and “subscriptions”
Paid subscription models
Experimentation: Disney
Bullying: NewsCorp
Attempts to separate advertising and subscriber web models
Experimentation with “communities”
BusinessWeek exchange
Nature.com
Tor.com
Harlequin

What hasn’t happened
No trade consolidation
Anticipated for several years
Far less Merger/Acquisition activity
Mismatch: Valuations and expectations
Big names on market for extended period
Collaboration across the supply chain
Friction with Amazon & pricing
Physical book retailing heightens problems
Institutional knowledge leveraged

Macro Predictions 2010
E-Books
2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’
End of 2010: The Cloud
Google Editions
Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content will be defining
Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of ownership
E-Content rather than E-Books
E-Content another format option

Are the Libraries my Friend?
Mobile and remote access awakening threat to trade publishers
Content aggregators build relations with Publishers
Requirement for more research on patron use of content
Implies an industry wide ‘re-think’ of library sales model
Challenges definition of ‘purchase’ and ‘loan’

Content silos: How trade build community
Subject specific content silos
Publishers license ancillary and related content: Drive repeat traffic
Encyclopedia
Reference
News content
Seminars/How to’s/ interactive modules, etc.
Become sites within sites: Build community with consumers
Build other services
Over time create broader types of content to support silos
Trade titles/imprints with other publishers

Micro Predictions 2010
Library market challenged through mid 2011
Retention, renewal, pricing difficult
Perhaps some vendor consolidation as a result
Return of collaboration between magazines and traditional publishers
Return of serial and short story: Magazines need ready-made content
Trade-off for publishers: Magazines offer targeted marketing
Year of warfare
Publishers vs. retailers, wholesalers vs. retailers, retailers vs. retailers, publishers vs. consumers
Consolidation of trade houses
As magazines migrate on-line they will need more content and journalists will be there: Magazines outsource editorial

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Predictions 2010

by Michael Cairns on Jan 15, 2010

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