Predictions 2010

1,973 views

Published on

Summary presentation of book industry predictions for 2010 first presented on my blog: Personanondata.blogspot.com

Published in: Education, Business
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,973
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
97
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
97
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Predictions 2010

  1. Predictions 2010 Cloudy with A Chance of Alarm Michael Cairns Information Media Partners January 2010 © Michael Cairns : Use with Attribution only
  2. Better or Worse? <ul><li>During 2009 Book Publishing a winner </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Contrast: Magazines, newspapers, some television </li></ul></ul><ul><li>No ‘resurrection’ during 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Executives guarded about immediate future </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipated short to medium term problems with education and library funding </li></ul>
  3. Maturing Macro Trends <ul><li>Educational segment development </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Electronic content and applications </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Testing, assessment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increasing not slowing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ New” not migrated products </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Speak about “databases” and “subscriptions” </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Paid subscription models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Experimentation: Disney </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bullying: NewsCorp </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Attempts to separate advertising and subscriber web models </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Experimentation with “communities” </li></ul><ul><ul><li>BusinessWeek exchange </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nature.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tor.com </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Harlequin </li></ul></ul>
  4. What hasn’t happened <ul><li>No trade consolidation </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Anticipated for several years </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Far less Merger/Acquisition activity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mismatch: Valuations and expectations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Big names on market for extended period </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Collaboration across the supply chain </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Friction with Amazon & pricing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Physical book retailing heightens problems </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Institutional knowledge leveraged </li></ul>
  5. Macro Predictions 2010 <ul><li>E-Books </li></ul><ul><ul><li>2009 ‘Year of the E-Book’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>End of 2010: The Cloud </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Google Editions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Apple’s (Hardware) role in book/media content will be defining </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content ‘rights’ challenged: Concept of ownership </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E-Content rather than E-Books </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E-Content another format option </li></ul></ul>
  6. Macro Predictions 2010 <ul><li>Are the Libraries my Friend? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobile and remote access awakening threat to trade publishers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content aggregators build relations with Publishers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Requirement for more research on patron use of content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Implies an industry wide ‘re-think’ of library sales model </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenges definition of ‘purchase’ and ‘loan’ </li></ul></ul>
  7. Macro Predictions 2010 <ul><li>Content silos: How trade build community </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Subject specific content silos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Publishers license ancillary and related content: Drive repeat traffic </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Encyclopedia </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Reference </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>News content </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Seminars/How to’s/ interactive modules, etc. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Become sites within sites: Build community with consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Build other services </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Over time create broader types of content to support silos </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade titles/imprints with other publishers </li></ul></ul>
  8. Micro Predictions 2010 <ul><li>Library market challenged through mid 2011 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Retention, renewal, pricing difficult </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perhaps some vendor consolidation as a result </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Return of collaboration between magazines and traditional publishers </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Return of serial and short story: Magazines need ready-made content </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Trade-off for publishers: Magazines offer targeted marketing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Year of warfare </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Publishers vs. retailers, wholesalers vs. retailers, retailers vs. retailers, publishers vs. consumers </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Consolidation of trade houses </li></ul><ul><li>As magazines migrate on-line they will need more content and journalists will be there: Magazines outsource editorial </li></ul>

×