Global Change in Mountain Regions: What Does It Mean and Why Should You Care? Greg Greenwood Executive Director, Mountain Research Initiative University of Bern, Switzerland Suzhou, China, 26 May 2011 Mountain research initiative
Global significance of mountain regions Quantitative considerations
22% of the terrestrial land area are mountains
12% of the global human population live in mountain regions
50% of the human population depend on freshwater resources from mountains
(UNEP-WCMC) (FAO 2003)
China is the largest country that is more than 50% mountainous
Water (3x) Protection Resource extraction Global significance of mountain regions Qualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (1/2)
DATA FROM ADAM AND LETTENMAIER (2003) AND ADAM ET AL., (2005), GLOBAL AVERAGE: EXCLUDING ANTARCTICA COMPLEX TERRAIN: 887 MM/Y;(“FLAT” TERRAIN: 768 MM/Y) (Slide from Rick Lawford, GEWEX) More precip over complex terrain (except in SA) NA: 957 MM/Y (640 MM/Y) SA: 1345 MM/Y (1784 MM/Y) EA: 746 MM/Y (552 MM/Y) AF: 887 MM/Y (689 MM/Y )
IPCC model simulations with 2x CO 2 show temperature change increases with altitude °N °S Climate change may be amplified in mountain regions Example: The American Cordillera
20 th century warming is more important in the Alps Rebetez & Reinhard In press + 0.57 °C / decade Temperature anomaly [°C] (slide from Pascal Vittoz and Antoine Guisan, UniL)
Climate scenario for Central Alps 0 50 100 150 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm) Month Month Future climate downscaled based on simulations with regional climate model (CHRM56 A2, Schär et al . 2004) (slide from Harald Bugmann, ETHZ) Current climate (1960-2000) Future climate (2070-2100)
Consequences for floods: the buffering effects of snow Runoff Flood level (slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)
Temperature trends (station data) Vuille & Bradley, 2000, Geophys. Res. Lett. Vuille et al., 2003 , Clim. Change
Climate change is amplified in mountain regions Tibetan Plateau: Trends in surface air temperature with elevation: 1961-90
Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected climatic change in the Alps 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 Snowpack duration [days] Mean winter temperatures [°C] Mean winter precipitation [mm/day] Beniston et al, 2003: Theoretical and Applied Climatology (slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva) -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2081-2090 2091-2100 2071-2080 Säntis: Future climate Arosa: Current climate Arosa: Future climate 2071-2080 2081-2090 2091-2100 Säntis: Current climate
Changes in the extent of Muskulak glacier (Notgemeinschaftsgletscher) (slide from Ludwig Braun, Bavarian Academy of Science and Humanities)
2 x CO 2 no glaciation Cool summer, low runoff Warm summer, high runoff The loss of glaciers = loss of late summer runoff
Climate change in mountains affects water supply current average snow water equivalent in Sierra Nevada (CA) (Knowles and Cayan 2004) Current average April snow water equivalent in Sierra Nevada (CA) Percent reduction in April SWE with 1.6 °C rise by 2060 Even in non-glaciated mountains such as in Central California, warming will lead to more rain and less snow, and earlier melting, Shifting the timing of fresh water runoff impacts Delta water quality more in winter = flooding? less in summer = salt-water intrusion
Climate change in mountains affects hydropower production capacity
Glacier recession leads to change in timing of water delivery such that small changes in precipitation may lead to larger changes in performance.
Transient plant dispersion with warming L. perenne , +5.8°C by 2100, dispersion: 40 m/ yr Randin, Engler et al. (in prep) Milleret (2004) Master MigClim model (slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne) 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2035 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 Colonized surface per 5 years 2050 2055 2095 2100 Temperature increase [°K]
Winners and losers with climate change gained stable lost never present Present 2100 + 6.2 °C ∩ present absent ∩ = = present absent Lolium perenne Saxifraga oppositifolia Randin et al. In prep.
Species turnover and extinctions Randin et al. (in prep.) D. octopetala E. myosuroides L. alpinus A. elatius V. tripteris S. minor All species different in 2100 A1 scenario (slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne) 25 100 % sp turnover by 2100: winners losers Committed to extinction? gaining > 200% 201 Number of species (N = 287) % area lost or gained -100 0 220 0 130 86
Dispersal types among declining species Will species track their suitable climate? < 20 m < 40 m < 100 m < 200 m < 1000 m Classification of dispersal types: Vittoz & Engler (in press) Botanica Helvetica N = 287 species Fragaria vesca Epilobium sp. Phleum Androsace & Gentiana < 1 m < 2 m < 4 m (slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)
A large third of species has limited dispersal capacities
Will they be able to keep pace with fast changing climate?
Effect of dispersal distance on future predicted area of occupancy +5.8°C by 2100 Lolium perenne Engler & Guisan (in revision) km 2 unlimited 100 m 40 m 20 m 10 m 5 m Dispersal distance (per year): Predicted area of occupancy Years (slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)
(slide from Andreas Hemp, University of Bayreuth)
(slide from Andreas Hemp, University of Bayreuth)
Impacts: range shifts and disturbances Schumacher & Bugmann (2006), GCB Future climate (2080)
Linking Natural Phenomenon with Agency Response
a model of nature
a model of response
driven by climate scenarios
Fires CLIMATE Los Angeles San Diego CALFIRE resources policies T, RH, wind speed RESULTS no. ha ECOSYSTEM fuels topography ignition weather
Escapes in the future driven by WIND.. Los Angeles San Diego Grass Brush Forest Number of escapes
Changing the climate, changing the rules: global warming and insect disturbance in western North American forests Allan L. Carroll Canadian Forest Service Pacific Forestry Centre Victoria, BC Natural Resources Canada Ressources naturelles Canada Canada http://mri.scnatweb.ch/content/view/141/73/ and look for Allan Carroll
Mountain pine beetle outbreak history (western Canada)
Largest outbreak in recorded history
Outbreaks during previous centuries?
Influence of host availability?
Forest management impacts?
Likely (selective harvest, fire suppression)
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Annual area (ha × 10 3 ) of mortality Year Affected by MPB Susceptible pine Adapted from Taylor and Carroll 2004 (slide from Allan Carroll, Canadian Forest Service)
If CC scenario true, and MPB dynamics in jack pine similar to lodgepole, then cont’d eastward expansion probable
Ponderosa pine Lodgepole pine Jack pine Lodgepole /Jack pine hybrids Mountain pine beetle infestations (2005) Grand Prairie Edmonton Calgary Red Deer Banff National Park Jasper National Park Confirmed infestation locations (2006)
How can we adapt the GLP approach to the Third Pole? MRI is working with INSTITUTE OF TIBETAN PLATEAU RESEARCH/CAS http://www.tpe.ac.cn/home
How does one actually implement this? Earth System (global) Land Systems (Third Pole) Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Decision Making Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Ecosystem Services & Hazards Circulation, forcings
“ Putting names to fluxes”... Charles J. V örösmarty 2006
Earth System (global) Land Systems (Third Pole) Social Systems Population Political/Institutional Regimes Culture Ecosystems Biogeochemistry Biodiversity Vegetation Soil Resource Use & Management Decision Making Flowing & Standing Water Cryosphere Pollution Livelihood Groups Ecosystem Services & Hazards Circulation, forcings Whose names go in the boxes? Earth System Drivers: Prof. ?? Ecosystem Conditions: Prof. ?? Ecosystem Services: Prof. ?? Feedbacks to Earth System Resource Benefits: Prof. ?? Current Resource Use: Prof. ?? Impacts of use Nature of the Social System Decision Making Processes: Prof. ?? A human resources project..
We could do this at range or basin scale..who does what where? Sanjiangyuan Hengduan Chang Tang Yarlung Kosi Karakorum Ladakh Kun Lun Pamir Tian Shan from M. Menenti 2010
Different socio-economic systems co-exist on the Third Pole Vegetation Land use Hydrology: soil water, stream discharge Meteorological and climatic “forcings”: precip, temp, radiation Pastoral Cropping Gathering