CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴            茂木耕作            海洋研究開発機構
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴            茂木耕作            海洋研究開発機構
CINDY2011                                Japan / Mirai       Oct. 2011-Jan. 2012    Oct 2011-Jan 2012                     ...
CINDY        MJO1               3事例の        MJO2   MJOを        MJO3                観測
A2 だけが 示せるALERCINDY中のMJOの特徴                    茂木耕作                    海洋研究開発機構
ALERA2エラーバー付き客観解析(2003∼2012)               観測 アンサンブル  のばらつき     ≒    誤差               次の解析         解析         予報
ALERA2 予報モデル    AFES     (榎本剛)同化システム    LETKF (三好建正) 解像度             T119L48アンサンブル数            63             UCAR GTS  観測...
R A2だけ が示せるMJO1   ALE       MJO1の特徴MJO2MJO3
東西風解析値の時間高度断面
東西風解析値の時間高度断面                            U解析(m/s)σ面高度                       西風          西風     西風               MJO1
東西風誤差の時間高度断面                           U誤差(m/s)σ面高度                      西風          西風     西風               MJO1
東西風誤差の時間高度断面                            U誤差(m/s)        E1 E2   E3     E4σ面高度                MJO1
東西風誤差の経度時間断面      E1      E2      E3       MJO1      E4
東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面      E1      E2      E3     MJO1      E4
東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面      E1      E2      E3     MJO1      E4
U誤差(500hPa)MJO1                 MJO1MJO2                 MJO2MJO3                 MJO3
V誤差(500hPa)MJO1                 MJO1MJO2                 MJO2MJO3                 MJO3
T誤差(500hPa)MJO1                 MJO1MJO2                 MJO2MJO3                 MJO3
Q誤差(500hPa)MJO1MJO2MJO3
誤差                  進   Q東進              西  UVT        誤差力学場不確定性      水蒸気場不確定性 後面で大          前面で大
A2 だけが 示せる  ALER  CINDY中のMJOの特徴 力学場不確定性              水蒸気場不確定性  後面で大                  前面で大 アフリカ大陸                海大陸でのでの力学場...
A2 だけが 示せるALERCINDY中のMJOの特徴                    茂木耕作
現象が生じた結果として  見える解析値   解析誤差発生前の兆候
可降水量MJO1MJO2MJO3
MJO1       CINDYMJO2MJO3
現象トレーサー:解析誤差
T誤差(500hPa)          CW誤差(500hPa)              MJO1              MJO2              MJO3
T誤差(500hPa)          Q誤差(500hPa)              MJO1              MJO2              MJO3
PDF          予稿            紙      MJO発生前から中層で周期的誤差増大
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴
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CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴

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講演動画Youtube→ http://bit.ly/PJCeAL
要旨:
 2011年10月から2012年2月にかけてインド洋でMJO発生の観測を目的とした国際大気海洋観測計画CINDYが実施された.ここでは,観測船「みらい」が捉えた10月後半のMJOについて,アンサンブル大気再解析ALERA2による解析誤差の特徴を報告する.
 図(a)に示すように,南緯8度,東経80.5度でラジオゾンデ定点観測(毎日8回)を行なっていたみらいによる相対湿度の時系列では,10月25日から11月5日まで深い湿潤域が観測された.
 この観測結果のうちのMJO通過前後における南緯10度—0度,東経70度—80度で平均したALERA2による東西風の解析誤差および解析値を図(b)に示す.CINDYに関連して実施された周囲6地点でのゾンデ強化観測データはGTSへの通報を通じてALERA2の解析にも用いられている.
 等値線で示す東西風解析値では,MJO通過時期に地表から500hPa付近までの深さの西風極大が現れており,さらに通過の前と後に下層西風の極大がそれぞれ2回,1回現れている.
 こうした西風の極大が現れる1〜2日前の中層東風域に解析誤差の極大が現れていることは大きな特徴である.また,これらの解析誤差の極大は,徐々により上層で現れるような傾向が見られ,これはMJOおよびその前後に発生する対流活動の深さが解析値の不確定性に寄与しているためだと考えられる.

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  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • We used a reanalysis dataset with errors at all grid points.\nWe are calling it ALERA.\nIt is produced by an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation technique.\nWe get the error reference from the spread of analysis ensemble member at all grid points.\nIt is not constant as like the other datasets, it is, of course, flow-dependent on dynamic.\n\n
  • Now, we are producing a new one using far more accurate system of the second generation ALERA.\nThis system is mainly developed by the two genius guys here.\nAs for the forecast model, the AGCM for Earth Simulator is developed by Dr. Enomoto.\nAs for the assimilation system, the local ensemble transform Kalman filter is developed by Dr. Miyoshi.\nIt has a resolution of T119 with 48 levels, and 63 ensemble members.\nThe assimilated observations are obtained from UCAR GTS archive and NOAA daily SST.\n\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • I’d like to provide a topic on the synergy of observations and numerical models through the assimilation technique.\nI think that this project will be successful.\nAfter the success, we will want to know how it is important.\nSo, I’d like to challenge to objectively evaluate the value of this observation experiment.\nThe method is very simple.\nIt is so called “Observing system experiment: OSE” evaluating the assimilation impact.\nThat is, \n\n
  • All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Like this.\nWe are having the intensified observation network in this way.\nOne day, we have larger errors of zonal wind in the western part of the Indian Ocean.\n
  • Four days after, it becomes larger and moves eastward.\n
  • Four more days after, it moves eastward further and has the maximum more than 6 m/s associating with strong westerly winds.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  • All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  • All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  • All what we need to do is see a map of the accuracy improvement by adding the CINDY and DYNAMO data.\nLet me show you an example from MISMO project.\n\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Doing such Observing System Experiments for CINDY and DYNAMO, we will get a great progress on studies on tropical waves. \nThis is one of the things that we can do after the campaign.\n
  • Transcript of "CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴"

    1. 1. CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴 茂木耕作 海洋研究開発機構
    2. 2. CINDY期間中の解析誤差分布の特徴 茂木耕作 海洋研究開発機構
    3. 3. CINDY2011 Japan / Mirai Oct. 2011-Jan. 2012 Oct 2011-Jan 2012 U.S. / Roger Revelle + + ++ Nairobi + Seychelles ++ + Cocos India / Sagar Kanya
    4. 4. CINDY MJO1 3事例の MJO2 MJOを MJO3 観測
    5. 5. A2 だけが 示せるALERCINDY中のMJOの特徴 茂木耕作 海洋研究開発機構
    6. 6. ALERA2エラーバー付き客観解析(2003∼2012) 観測 アンサンブル のばらつき ≒ 誤差 次の解析 解析 予報
    7. 7. ALERA2 予報モデル AFES (榎本剛)同化システム LETKF (三好建正) 解像度 T119L48アンサンブル数 63 UCAR GTS 観測 NOAA 日毎のSST
    8. 8. R A2だけ が示せるMJO1 ALE MJO1の特徴MJO2MJO3
    9. 9. 東西風解析値の時間高度断面
    10. 10. 東西風解析値の時間高度断面 U解析(m/s)σ面高度 西風 西風 西風 MJO1
    11. 11. 東西風誤差の時間高度断面 U誤差(m/s)σ面高度 西風 西風 西風 MJO1
    12. 12. 東西風誤差の時間高度断面 U誤差(m/s) E1 E2 E3 E4σ面高度 MJO1
    13. 13. 東西風誤差の経度時間断面 E1 E2 E3 MJO1 E4
    14. 14. 東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面 E1 E2 E3 MJO1 E4
    15. 15. 東西風誤差の偏差の経度時間断面 E1 E2 E3 MJO1 E4
    16. 16. U誤差(500hPa)MJO1 MJO1MJO2 MJO2MJO3 MJO3
    17. 17. V誤差(500hPa)MJO1 MJO1MJO2 MJO2MJO3 MJO3
    18. 18. T誤差(500hPa)MJO1 MJO1MJO2 MJO2MJO3 MJO3
    19. 19. Q誤差(500hPa)MJO1MJO2MJO3
    20. 20. 誤差 進 Q東進 西 UVT 誤差力学場不確定性 水蒸気場不確定性 後面で大 前面で大
    21. 21. A2 だけが 示せる ALER CINDY中のMJOの特徴 力学場不確定性 水蒸気場不確定性 後面で大 前面で大 アフリカ大陸 海大陸でのでの力学場観測強化 水蒸気観測強化
    22. 22. A2 だけが 示せるALERCINDY中のMJOの特徴 茂木耕作
    23. 23. 現象が生じた結果として 見える解析値 解析誤差発生前の兆候
    24. 24. 可降水量MJO1MJO2MJO3
    25. 25. MJO1 CINDYMJO2MJO3
    26. 26. 現象トレーサー:解析誤差
    27. 27. T誤差(500hPa) CW誤差(500hPa) MJO1 MJO2 MJO3
    28. 28. T誤差(500hPa) Q誤差(500hPa) MJO1 MJO2 MJO3
    29. 29. PDF 予稿 紙 MJO発生前から中層で周期的誤差増大

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