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Dan Rawitch - Market Update 10/26/2010
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Dan Rawitch - Market Update 10/26/2010

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2011 Interest Rate Predictions

2011 Interest Rate Predictions

Published in Economy & Finance , Business
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  • Have a 5 min conversation with MC Community around what they want from a Facebook community --
  • Where do you get your business? How much business do you do?
  • Where do you get your business? How much business do you do?
  • Where do you get your business? How much business do you do?
  • Have a 5 min conversation with MC Community around what they want from a Facebook community --

Transcript

  • 1.
    • The purpose of our coaching call
      • to connect as a community,
      • to learn the IDEAS that are working best
      • to get focused for the week ahead
    Mortgage Coach Weekly Coaching Call
  • 2. I’m passionate about finding sales and marketing breakthroughs and then making them predictable and scalable with technology Dave Savage
  • 3. Connect with the Best www.facebook.com/MortgageCoach Share ideas & strategies with the best in the business
  • 4.
    • FHA Loan Officer in 1978
    • VP for Bear Stearns working with Larry Kudlow
    • Founded Data Fax
    • Founded RPM Mortgage in 1989
    • CEO of FiNet
    • EVP with WMC
    • EVP at Ownit
    • Author of “Magnetic Wealth”
    • Founder of Milestone Mortgage
    • Husband and father of three
    Dan Rawitch
  • 5. www.RateWatch.com
  • 6. Dan do you think interest rate will be higher or lower on Jan 1 st 2011?
  • 7. What is your advice on how loan officers can use this advice and your presentation to get in front of top Realtors?
  • 8. Please share your opinions and perspective on the future of interest rates
  • 9.
    • Key Driver to all other data that follows
    • If Inflation kicks above 3.5% the Fed will take foot off of Gas
    • Politics could play a role and we could trade short term improvements for long term disaster
    • Low risk of inflation, thus adding confidence to forecast
    Inflation Picture
  • 10.
    • No Room to go down
    • Fed pushes down through Spring of 2011
    • Slight increases as economy improves late Q2
    What will the FED do?
  • 11.
    • 2000 point Dow correction in Q1/Q2
    • Based on rising unemployment
    • Plunging GDP
    • Housing starts drop more
    • Drives one last flight to quality!
    How will the DOW behave?
  • 12.
    • Unemployment gets worse before improving
    • Remains too high throughout 2011
    • Keeps easing pressure on Fed
    • Damages Demo chances, thus leading to tax cuts
    Unemployment Rate
  • 13.
    • GDP plunges in Q1 proving double dip forecasters right!
    • Helps keep pressure on FED
    • Provides ok refinance business
    • Holds down purchase business
    Do we double dip?
  • 14.
    • Housing Starts may lead the turnaround late in Q1
    • Expect anemic starts through the Q4 2011, perhaps dipping once more
    • Existing home sales and inventory absorption will be drivers
    Housing Starts
  • 15.
    • Fed Intervention will be a huge and unquantifiable driver!
    • Expect dip in Q1 prior to a shake out in Q2
    • Overall I see current levels plus or minus 75 bps as sustainable for yr
    • Typically this is not a Fed controlled instrument
    10 Year Bond Behavior
  • 16.
    • Most of the same logic as ten year comments apply
    • Spreads between the 10 year and MBS must remain constant to hold forecast
    • Rapid and sudden drop in values will widen the spread, due to quality fears
    • Increased Fed control could narrow the spreads
    Mortgage Rates
  • 17.  
  • 18. Why do I want to buy?
  • 19. Once in a Lifetime? The Data Speaks Loudly!
  • 20. Homes were LESS Affordable in the 70’s!
  • 21.  
  • 22.  
  • 23. “ Pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered” 18 months ago…rates were in the mid 6% range!
  • 24.  
  • 25. Key Takeaways
    • 2011 will be better than 2010
    • Q1 2011 could be tough without momentum
    • Rates NOT purchases will save 2011
    • A hiccup in rates and you suffer without purchase
    • It has seldom been easier to work with agents
    • Our job is to work together and build one another
    • Use Blogs, FTB seminars, press releases and office meetings to tell this story! The press sure is not getting it!
    • Scott, Tracy and Roberto will help you tie this together!
  • 26. Become a “Trusted Advisor” 6% 5%
  • 27. Simplify the Market & Create a Sense of Urgency
  • 28. Success Stories in www.facebook.com/MortgageCoach Share Success Stories with your peers & friends
  • 29. www.RateWatch.com
  • 30. www.RateWatch.com
  • 31. www.RateWatch.com
  • 32. www.RateWatch.com
  • 33. Thank you Dan Rawitch
  • 34. www.RateWatch.com