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A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence  for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012
 

A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012

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A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012

A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012

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  • Goldemberg: fisico Rettore Universit à di Sao Paulo Ministro Ambiente (1992, Rio summit) e Educazione 2000 World Energy Assessment ONU (UNDP)

A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence  for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012 A 2000-watt society - Energy use convergence for a just and sustainable world. AUT, AUCKLAND , 24.4.2012 Presentation Transcript

  • A 2000-watt society.Energy use convergencefor a just and sustainable world. Dr. Marco Morosini, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich 1
  • Chasing nanogramms of pollutants in lichens of the most remote places: Tristan da Cunha
  • Mount Makalu, Himalaya
  • Antarctic Peninsula
  • Mount Kenya
  • Gas-chromatograph, University of Siena, University of Ulm
  • My most remote travel: Zurich – New Zealand
  • Gas-chromatograph, University of Siena, University of Ulm
  • 8 t CO2 , 37 000 kmCO2 offsetting my travelZurich-New Zealand-Zurich:
  • Definition of the normative scenario “2000-watt society” In a „2000-watt society“ all energy services together  require  a continuous flux of primary energy of  no more than  2000 watt per capita  (or: TPES* of 60 GJ /year per capita) Present requirement in Europe:  6000 watt per capita   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000-watt_society* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
  • Use of power or of  primary energy* - in the year 2000 (Switzerland) - and in 2050, in the scenario „2000-watt society“   Unit per capita Year 2000 Year 2050 watt 6000 2000 (continuous flux. 1 W = 1 J /sec) tons oil equivalent (toe) 4.5  1.5 x year gigajoule (GJ)  190 60 x year kilowatt hour (kW.h)  53 000 18 000 x year* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply
  • Why to cap energy use per capita?For a growing world population:1) Non-renewables energies (fossil, atomic) are limited, risky and environmental disruptive2) Renewable energy technologies are not „free“.   Need input of energy, materials, and surface (and much more...)      Can not expand infinitely3) Global distribution of energy and wealth     is strongly unequal and potentially social disruptive 12
  • Why 2000 watt per capita?1) "Biophysical“ argument: 2000 watt pc would be a precautionary limit       to avoid excessive perturbation to biodiversity and to biosphere  (Wolfram Ziegler, 1977; Hans-Peter Dürr 1993)2) Status quo argument: 2300 watt pc is the average flux of primary energy in the world now3) Quality of life indicators show poor correlation      with growing  energy use beyond 2000 watt pc       (Vaclav Smil 2003)  13
  • Outline1. History of the normative scenario  “2000-watt society”1. Examples in Switzerland2. Objections and obstacles1. Summary and conclusions 14
  • 2002:  The Swiss government adopts the 2000-watt normative scenario ”The scenario of a “2000-watt society” serves as a conception, guiding energy and climate protection policy. In the long term, this would require a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (primarily CO2) to the sustainable level of one tonne per capita, with per-capita energy consumption of 500 watts being derived from fossil fuels and 1500 watts from renewable sources.”  Swiss Government Sustainable Development Strategy 2002 (and 2008 and 2012)  www.deza.admin.ch/ressources/resource_en_23811.pdf 
  • X X http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society 16
  • 1985 Josè Goldemberg UNDP World Energy Assessment 17
  • 1994, Switzerland 18
  • 1998: The ETH-domain starts the research programme:          “2000 watt society – Switzerland”                       Institutions of the ETH-domain: ETH-Rat (1998) 2000-Watt-Gesellschaft - Modell Schweiz.  Strategie Nachhaltigkeit im ETH-Bereich, Wirtschaftsplattform, ETH Zürich 19
  • 2000: The foundation Novatlantis is createdto foster progress towards a 2000-watt society www.novatlantis.ch/ 20
  • 2002, 2004:Finalreports Jochen et al., 2002 Jochen et al., 2004 21
  • 2010“A 2000 watt society is compatible with a further growth of GDP in Switzerland” Bretschger L. et al. 2010 22
  • 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”1. Examples in Switzerland2. Objections and obstacles1. Summary and conclusions 23
  • 2000-2010: The vision of a 2000-watt societyspreads in Switzerland and is adopted by:-Swiss government, (Sustainable development strategy 2002, 2008,2012)-Zurich population: in a town referendum 78% of the voting population ofZurich decide to write in the town constitution the commitment to a “2000-watt society”-Some cantons and towns, in their energy strategies-All major national scientific institutions: ETH, EPFL, EMPA, WSL, PSI-Society of engineers and architects (SIA), with guidelines for “2000-watt society buildings”-Zurich, Basel, Geneva: Pilot towns for a “2000-watt society” 24
  • http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society 25
  • http://www.stadt-zuerich.ch/2000-watt-society 26
  • http://www.aue.bs.ch/fachbereiche/fachuebergreifendes/nachhaltige-entwicklung/pilotregion.htm 27
  • The new headquarter (1998) of the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics, Neuchatel Demand of primary energy: 10 % of a conventional building.Morosini, Torino, 4.11.2011 28
  • 29
  • 2009: New Monterosa Hut: 100% renewable energies at 2883 m aslSwiss Federal Institute of Technology and Swiss Alpine Club - 130 beds - hot shower for 130 - photovoltaic and thermosolar panels -emergency backup generator (agrodiesel)www.neuemonterosahuette.chwww.section-monte-rosa.ch/cabanes_4.htm 30
  • Since 1986: 100% renewable energy at 2126 m asl.Markus Menn, Postman and Postbus driver in Juf, Avers Valley, Grison, CH - chalet of 4 apartments - heat pump (4 ground probes, 80 m) - thermosolar panels - hydropower from nearby plant http://jufferien.ch/ 31
  • 1998 and 2007: Federal buildings with energy demand of only10% of a conventional building EAWAG e EMPA Federal Institutes for researchFederal Office of Statistics, on water and on materialsNeuchatel, 1998 Zurich, 2007 32
  • 1998: MINERGIE, the major Swiss registered label for low-energy buildings2010:- MINERGIE: 19 000 certified buildings (20 million m2)-MINERGIE-Plus: 630 buildings-MINERGIE-Plus-ECO: 80 buildings www.minergie.ch 33
  • MINERGIE certified: Headquarters of 2 top 10 companies, Zurich Migros Tower (nr 1 retail) Sunrise Towers (nr 2 phone company) 34
  • 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”1. Examples in Switzerland2. Objections and obstacles1. Summary and conclusions 35
  • 2008: “Energy saving is outIn its new energy strategy the ETH abandons the 2000-watt society” 36
  • Since 2008: Two diverging strategies 1) Government, cantons, towns, institutions, business: “2000-watt society” in 2050. And 1 t CO2 per capita 2) ETH (since 2008): New slogan: “1-t-CO2-society” in 2100-2150. 4000-6000 watt per capita in Switzerland and worldwideMorosini, Torino, 4.11.2011 37
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society1. “Reduce damage, not energy!” “A limit should be put to risks and damages caused by energy technologies, not to the level of energy use per se. With C-poor technologies, the average use of primary energy can grow at least up to 6000 watt pc for 9 billion humans.” 38
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society2. “Energy limit, nonsense!” “A world limit of 2000 watt pc could be either: - too low, if environmental friendly technologies are adopted. - too high, if environmental unfriendly technologies are still be used and world population soars.” 39
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society3. “Horizon 2050 too soon!”“2100 or 2150 more plausible.” 40
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society4. “More electrification – and energy - necessary!”“Fossil fuels can be phased out only throughmassive electrification (e.g. private transport; heating)Trade-off: more-electricity-for-less-carbon.” 41
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society5. “Lifestyles, not negotiable!”“For a 2/3 reduction of energy use,more energy efficiency is not enough.Strong restrictions in lifestyle would be necessary.Unacceptable!” 42
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society6. Rebound effect outmatches efficiency progressHigher efficiency lowers the price of energy services,thus boosts the overall use of energy. 43
  • 2007Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November 2007, pp. 4-7http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf 44
  • Rubin J., Tal B., Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy? Strateg Econ – 27 November2007, pp. 4-7http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/snov07.pdf 45
  • Rebound effect by lighting, UK, 1900 to 2000:Efficiency x 100 – but consumption X 1000 http://www.esc.ethz.ch/box_feeder/StrategyE.pdf 46
  • If alone, efficiency is not the solution.It is the problem http://www.novatlantis.ch/ 47
  • Two strategies for reducing overall energy use1) Efficiency:Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies2) Sufficiency*:Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety 48
  • Change priorities !1) Sufficiency*:Doing less.  Reform of lifestyles2) Efficiency:Doing more with less.  Reform of technologies*sufficiency / frugality / sobriety 49
  • Ecological economist Herman Daly:“Efficiency-first does not give frugality-second –it makes frugality less necessary.Frugality-first gives us efficiency-secondby making it more necessary.” 50
  • Examples of collective sufficiency:- building all trains for no more than 200 km/h- building all cars for no more than 120 km/h www.edizioniambiente.it/eda/catalogo/libri/609/ 51
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society7. Impossible to forecast new inventions. “Invention is the mother of necessity” Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929 52
  • 9 objections or obstacles to a 2000-watt society8. Advertising: Advertising pressure soars (ca. 1000 billion U$ in 2004) Desires engineers outperform efficiency engineers. 53
  • 9. Emulative consumption and growing wealth disparitiesThe “conspicuous consumption “ of the upper classesstimulates the emulative consumption of the lower classes. (s. Thorstein Veblen 1857-1929) 54
  • 55
  • Hervè Kempf (Paris newspaper Le Monde):Restrictions of the material consumption of the upper classes are necessaryin order to slow down the growth of the demand by the entire population. http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hervé_Kempf www.reporterre.fr 56
  • Prof. Robert Frank, Cornell University, USA:Income taxes to be substituted by progressive consumption taxes. www.robert-h-frank.com/ 57
  • 58
  • 2000 http://www.novatlantis.ch/ 59
  • 2005 60
  • 2000: Energy use distribution among countries and within countries (average + upper decile + lowest decile) Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911 61
  • The energy consumption window today (left) and in 2050 (right). The upper, ecological boundary (between 2 and 4 kW/capita) refers to the global average. The lower boundary (600 W/capita) refers to the poorest decile of the global society in 2050.Spreng D (2005) Distribution of energy consumption and the 2000 W/capita target, Energy Policy 33, 1905–1911 62
  • World use of primary energy*: Year 2000 to 2050-2100 Unsustainable transition? 12 TW 60 TW ? 2000 watt x 6 billion 6000 watt x 10 billion* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply 63
  • Iceland:16 000 watt per capita average use of primary energy80 % geothermic 64
  • World use of primary energy*: Sustainable transition? 12 TW 18 TW 2000 watt x 6 billion 2000 watt x 9 billion IC LIC 2000 2050IC: Industrialized countriesLIC: Less Industrialized Countries* TPES, Total Primary Energy Supply 65
  • 1. History of the normative scenario “2000-watt society”1. Examples in Switzerland2. Objections and obstacles1. Summary and conclusions 66
  • Summary (1/2)1. All technological energy transformations cause environmental costs – not only fossil fuels. No energy technology can expand infinitely. Renewables neither.2. A voluntary boundary around 2000 watt pc stimulates energy parsimony – including parsimony of fossil fuels.3. Only a “2000 watt society” in the industrialized countries can: a) legitimate them to ask for moderation in energy use worldwide b) offer to developing countries a possible model for sustainable energy consumption. 67
  • Summary (2/2)4. Efficiency (“doing more with less”) is ambivalent: - it can lower energy use in saturable sectors (es. heating, cooling, production) - but generally it boosts energy use in the society as a whole and in non saturable sectors (e.g. private transport, consumer goods, leisure travel)5. Sufficiency (“doing less”) is necessary and accessible through: - voluntary moderation (stimulated by mass communication) - incentives, disincentives, prescriptions 68
  • Conclusions1)For the political community:“Sufficiency first”should raise to a priority in the political and cultural arena.2)For the scientific community:Technologists and economists should bemore aware of the limited – or counterproductive - effectof efficiency progress, if this is not accompaniedby a “sufficiency first” policy. 69
  • Symposium for Wolfgang SachsBerlin, May 21-22, 2012„Sufficiency EconomyWhat is missing on the Rio Agenda…“Organised by:-Wuppertal Institute-Heinrich Böll FoundationProgramme:http://www.qualenergia.it/sites/default/files/articolo-doc/Agenda%20Symposium%20für%20Wolfgang%20Sach 70
  • 71
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Spirit_Level:_Why_More_Equal_Societies_Almost_Always_Do_Better 72
  • Uso di energia finale pro capite (kWh * anno) in Svizzera 1980-2009Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011 73
  • Emissioni di gas a effetto serra in Svizzera (Mt CO2 equivalenti) 1990-2009Morosini, Bologna, 16.11.2011 74