© 2011 Rolls-Royce plc
The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or commun...
Introduction
Rolls-Royce 10-year turbine rotorcraft market forecast
Covers Civil and Military Original Equipment Manufactu...
Rotorcraft Forecast 2011-2020 – Summary
Rolls-Royce predicts a near-term recovery in civil markets,
with a strong long-ter...
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
RotorcraftUnits
10,900 Civil Units
6,070 M...
Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast
2011-2020 by Units
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Single...
Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast
2011-2020 by Value
$12.4 B OEM Value
~2 Ton ~3.5 Ton ~5 Ton ~10 Ton >10 Ton
Total Rotorcraft Forecast Comparison
2009 / 2010 / 2011
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2...
Civil Rotorcraft Forecast
Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Market
Single-engine rotorcraft continue to lead market in unit volume
Economics and operating co...
Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Forecast
10,900 Civil rotorcraft deliveries
Singles (60%) and light twins (20%) lead the market b...
Civil Rotorcraft Sales by Class
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Roto...
Military Rotorcraft Forecast
Military Turbine Rotorcraft Market
Global Military Engagements
Op Tempo continues to be high, but likely to decline beyond...
Military New Build Turbine Rotorcraft
Forecast
6,070 Military rotorcraft deliveries
Mediums (54%) lead the market by units...
Military OEM Rotorcraft Sales - Segmentation
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20...
Conclusion
Over 16,900 new rotorcraft forecasted in 10-year period
>$12 billion turbine engine market
Environment, Perform...
Rolls-Royce Contacts
David Newill
Director, Market Research & Analysis
(317) 230-4071
Email: david.newill@rolls-royce.com
...
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Rolls Royce Helicopter Market Projections 2011

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Rolls Royce Helicopter Market Projections 2011

  1. 1. © 2011 Rolls-Royce plc The information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc. This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc or any of its subsidiary or associated companies. Rolls-Royce Market Overview 10-year Helicopter Industry Market Forecast 2011-2020
  2. 2. Introduction Rolls-Royce 10-year turbine rotorcraft market forecast Covers Civil and Military Original Equipment Manufacture (OEM) production turbine helicopters Excludes military remanufacturing / major upgrade programs Based on: Civil customer new requirements and fleet replacement forecasts Military new requirements and fleet replacement forecasts Government acquisition plans OEM production plans Customer input Industry publications and databases Public domain information
  3. 3. Rotorcraft Forecast 2011-2020 – Summary Rolls-Royce predicts a near-term recovery in civil markets, with a strong long-term underlying demand for both civil and military helicopter segments Over the next 10 years, Rolls-Royce forecasts over 16,970 turbine rotorcraft deliveries, worth $140 billion 10,900 civil rotorcraft, worth $34 billion 6,070 military rotorcraft, worth $106 billion $12.4 billion turbine engine market Environment, Performance and Value continue to drive new designs Underlying strong long-term demand for vertical lift
  4. 4. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 RotorcraftUnits 10,900 Civil Units 6,070 Military Units Turbine Powered Rotorcraft Forecast 2011-2020
  5. 5. Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast 2011-2020 by Units 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Singles Light Twins Intermediate Medium Heavy TurbineEngineSales(units) Civil Defense ~2 Ton ~3.5 Ton ~5 Ton ~10 Ton >10 Ton 27,000 OEM Engines
  6. 6. Rotorcraft Turbine Engine Sales Forecast 2011-2020 by Value $12.4 B OEM Value ~2 Ton ~3.5 Ton ~5 Ton ~10 Ton >10 Ton
  7. 7. Total Rotorcraft Forecast Comparison 2009 / 2010 / 2011 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Units Total Deliveries 2011 16,970 2010 16,446 2009 15,711
  8. 8. Civil Rotorcraft Forecast
  9. 9. Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Market Single-engine rotorcraft continue to lead market in unit volume Economics and operating cost benefits of singles Entry level turbines have potential to expand the operator base to customers previously excluded or limited to used and/or surplus helicopters Underlying international demand for police, law enforcement, corporate, EMS and utility helicopters Fuel situation may move single engine operators from piston to turbine New twin engine models stimulating market demand All OEM’s introducing new products Longer range over-water missions to more distant offshore platforms Market drivers: Emerging market interest in twins for urban areas in some markets (Europe, Japan) Emerging markets (e.g. India, Brazil, China) Enhanced value proposition and performance through application of new technology Fleet demographics – 43% of global fleet over 25 years of age China – impact of opening of civil airspace to be determined Used rotorcraft availability Access to favorable financing terms
  10. 10. Civil Turbine Rotorcraft Forecast 10,900 Civil rotorcraft deliveries Singles (60%) and light twins (20%) lead the market by units Airframe value $34 billion Intermediates (30%) and light twins (24%) lead the market in value Engine OEM value $4.6 billion Singles (32%) lead the market in value, followed by intermediates (27%) and light twins (25%) Lifetime aftermarket value approximately 3-4 times OEM value Excludes military surplus rotorcraft deliveries and aircraft upgrades Includes paramilitary market
  11. 11. Civil Rotorcraft Sales by Class 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 RotorcraftSales(units) Heavy Medium Intermediate Light Twins Singles
  12. 12. Military Rotorcraft Forecast
  13. 13. Military Turbine Rotorcraft Market Global Military Engagements Op Tempo continues to be high, but likely to decline beyond 2015-2016 Harsh operating environments – sand, salt, brown-outs typical Importance of hot & high operations 6K, 95°F the new standard Humanitarian Relief Efforts Hurricanes, floods, tsunami, earthquakes strain multiple nations’ resources Fleet demographics Near term continues to focus on delivering derivatives /upgrades to fleet US Army JMR initiates official assessment of new technologies, designs, capabilities needed to address future vertical lift requirements Emergence of new heavy-lift requirements Emerging operational scenarios require very large VTOL aircraft Introduction of new technology Lower IR and noise signatures Digital cockpit HUMS, Conditioned Based Maintenance (CBM), intelligent diagnostics X-2 and X-3 hybrid propulsion platforms Manned/Unmanned/ optionally manned (MUM) Teaming integrating multiple UAS platforms and real-time video delivery Autonomous cargo delivery and re-supply
  14. 14. Military New Build Turbine Rotorcraft Forecast 6,070 Military rotorcraft deliveries Mediums (54%) lead the market by units Light, Heavy, Intermediate split the remaining units evenly Airframe value $106 billion Mediums (54%) and Heavy (35%) lead the market in value Engine value $7.8 billion Mediums (51%) and Heavy (31%) lead the market in value
  15. 15. Military OEM Rotorcraft Sales - Segmentation 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 RotorcraftSales(units) Heavy Medium Intermediate Light Twins Singles
  16. 16. Conclusion Over 16,900 new rotorcraft forecasted in 10-year period >$12 billion turbine engine market Environment, Performance, and Value continue to drive new designs Near term recovery in the civil market underpinned by market fundamentals Underlying strong long-term demand for vertical lift Global markets show continued requirement for helicopters Fleet demographics driving replacement demand Technology improvements flowing into new products Emerging markets offer substantial upside
  17. 17. Rolls-Royce Contacts David Newill Director, Market Research & Analysis (317) 230-4071 Email: david.newill@rolls-royce.com Matt Haugk Vice President, Marketing, Sales and Customer Operations (317) 230-3883 Email: matthew.p.haugk@rolls-royce.com

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