FedEx International Air Cargo 2014

767 views
616 views

Published on

Published in: Business
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
767
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

FedEx International Air Cargo 2014

  1. 1. Trade Patterns and the Future of International Air Cargo ↗Frederick W. Smith ↗ Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of FedEx Corporation
  2. 2. Asian Tigers and Japan 13 JapanSouth Korea TaiwanHong Kong Singapore
  3. 3. Boeing 747-100
  4. 4. Export Trends for Top FedEx Markets Exports from some of these countries have been slowing down since CY2010 (YOY% Total Export Value in USD) Source: IMF, National Authorities
  5. 5. Air Cargo Traffic And Semiconductor Billings Semiconductors are a vital component of complex electronics like PCs and cellular phones – products often carried by air cargo 2012 Avg Semiconductor Forecast Strong correlation between air cargo traffic and semiconductor billings
  6. 6. Oil Prices Over Past 4 Decades Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics
  7. 7. FedEx 777F
  8. 8. All Other, 21, 1% 777F, 86, 5% 767-200s, 70, 4% 767-300s, 107, 7% 747-100s, 51, 3% 747-200s, 171, 11% 747-400s, 249, 16% 747-8F, 47, 3% A 330-200F, 25, 2% A 310 Family, 86, 5% A 300 Family, 262, 17% DC/MD-10s, 231, 15% MD-11 Family, 180, 11% 21 Widebody Freighter Aircraft All-Time Source: Jan ‘14 OAG/BACK database
  9. 9. 22 Widebody Freighter Aircraft Active Source: Jan ‘14 OAG/BACK database 777F, 86, 8% 767-200s, 64, 6% 767-300s, 105, 10% 747-100s, 9, 1% 747-200s, 30, 3% 747-400s, 200, 18% 747-8F, 46, 4% A 330-200F, 25, 2% A 310 Family, 39, 4% A 300 Family, 197, 18% DC/MD-10s, 132, 12% MD-11 Family, 153, 14%
  10. 10. Freight Traffic Growth Source: IATA, ACI
  11. 11. -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2003M1 2003M4 2003M7 2003M10 2004M1 2004M4 2004M7 2004M10 2005M1 2005M4 2005M7 2005M10 2006M1 2006M4 2006M7 2006M10 2007M1 2007M4 2007M7 2007M10 2008M1 2008M4 2008M7 2008M10 2009M1 2009M4 2009M7 2009M10 2010M01 2010M04 2010M07 2010M10 2011M01 2011M04 2011M07 2011M10 2012M01 2012M04 2012M07 2012M10 2013M01 2013M04 2013M07 2013M10 Worldwide Airfreight Capacity Growth vs. Freight Tonnage Growth (YOY) Tonnage growth exceeds capacity growth Capacity growth exceeds tonnage growth Current Freighter Capacity Growth Exceeds Demand Source: IATA Focus of analysis
  12. 12. World International Air Express, Air Freight, and Ocean Freight Revenue Mix 10% 31% 59% 12% 25% 63% 1994 2004 2012 International Air Express Dry Cargo Ocean International Air Freight 6% 38% 55% CAGR 14% CAGR 6% CAGR 9% CAGR 6% CAGR 1% CAGR 6% % revenue mix of international air express and ocean cargo has been increasing in the period CY 1994–2012 International air freight revenue mix has been declining in this period Source: Boeing Air Cargo Forecast, Global Insight, TSA estimates, ACMG & FedEx Analysis ($ Billions)
  13. 13. 23%Protectionism is up since 2009
  14. 14. World Trade Volume vs. Global Real GDP • During the globalization of manufacturing, trade grew 2-3 times faster than GDP • In 2012 and 2013, trade volumes failed to grow at their historical rate • Since the “Great Recession,” trade has been steadily improving but not at the prior pace Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy and Analysis, Economic Intelligence Unit, FedEx Corporate Economics
  15. 15. 90 100 110 120 130 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 indexofworldtrade,2005=100 BillionFTKs World Trade in Goods vs. Air FTKs (Seasonally Adjusted) World Trade Index (Index 2005=100) International FTKs SA Source: Netherlands CPB and IATA Industry Context Modestly Improving Volumes… 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 US$perkilo Air Freight Yields (US$ per kilo) …and Weak Rates

×