Airbus Market Forecast 2013-2032

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Airbus Market Forecast 2013-2032

  1. 1. Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Presented by: JOHN LEAHY COO, Customers
  2. 2. Global Market Forecast 2013: Highlights GMF 2013 key numbers and 20-year change World Fleet Forecast Passenger aircraft fleet 2032 % Change 5.5 RPK (trillions) 2012 13.9 151% 16,094 33,651 109% New passenger aircraft deliveries Dedicated freighters 28,355 1,645 2,905 New freighter aircraft deliveries Total New Aircraft Deliveries 871 29,226 Market value of $4.4 trillion Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freight aircraft ≥10t Source: Airbus GMF © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 77%
  3. 3. 20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freight aircraft 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft 20,242 single-aisle aircraft +724 aircraft over GMF 2012 7,273 twin-aisle aircraft +299 aircraft 1,711 very large aircraft +5 aircraft 29,226 new aircraft +1,028 aircraft Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus GMF © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Market value of $4.4 trillion
  4. 4. Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth August Passenger Traffic +7.1% World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year) 8% 6% 4% 2% Real GDP 0% World passenger traffic (ASKs) -2% -4% J M Q2 J S Q4 J M Q2 J S Q4 J M Q2 J S Q4 J M Q2 J S Q4 J M Q2 J S Q4 J M Q2 J S Q4 Q1 M Q3 N Q1 M Q3 N Q1 M Q3 N Q1 M Q3 N Q1 M Q3 N Q1 M Q3 N 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 World air transport is recovering after 12 months of slower growth Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2013 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  5. 5. A two-speed world Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth Real GDP growth (%) 10% History Forecast 8% Emerging economies* 6% 4% 2% 0% Mature economies -2% -4% 1982 1985 1988 54 emerging economies. Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
  6. 6. Emerging/Developing China India Middle East Asia Africa CIS Latin America Eastern Europe Advanced Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions Western Europe North America Japan Yearly RPK growth 2013 -2032 6 billion people 2013 1 billion people 2013 Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  7. 7. Passenger traffic growth varies by region ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%) Emerging Markets Traffic +13.2% 16% 12% Western Europe Traffic 8% +4.6% 4% US Traffic 0% +2.4% -4% -8% -12% J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe with positive growth Source: OAG, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 7
  8. 8. Emerging economies are driving future growth Today 28% of worldwide GDP 69% of worldwide population (4.9 billion people) 39% 39% of world passenger trips of world fleet-inservice 2032 67% 40% of worldwide population (5.7 billion people) of worldwide GDP 54% 51% of world passenger trips of world fleet-inservice Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries) Emerging economies represents 50% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  9. 9. More new fliers from the emerging markets Trips* per capita over GDP per capita Trips* per capita - 2012 10 China - 2032 .95 trips per capita 1 India - 2032 .25 trips per capita 0.1 United Kingdom 1.91 trips per capita USA 1.53 trips per capita 2/3 1/5 China .26 trips per capita of the of the population of population of the emerging the emerging countries will countriestrip a a take a took trip in 2032 yearin 2012 India .05 trips per capita 0.01 0.001 0 20,000 40,000 Source: Sabre (annualized September 2012 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus * Passengers originating from respective country © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 2012 GDP per capita ($US)
  10. 10. Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions) Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Financial Asian WTC SARS Crisis Crisis Attack 5.0 67% 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 67% growth through multiple crises over the last ten years Source: ICAO, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2012
  11. 11. 2013 Airbus order backlog by region Europe & CIS North America 18% 12% Middle East 8% Lessors Asia Pacific 36% 19% Latin America Africa 1% 6% Backlog of 5,190 aircraft As at end August 2013 Corporate, MRTT and undisclosed 1% © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  12. 12. Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth • Aviation increasingly at the centre of peoples’ journeys • More people, more wealth, bigger cities – urban population set to grow from 51% today to over 60% • Emerging markets, more first time flyers and a growing middle class which will grow from 2.2 billion today to 5.2 billion • Growing tourism and internationalisation will stimulate demand • More liberalisation to come, particularly in Asia, Africa and Latin America • Replacement of less eco-efficient aircraft - 2/3 of existing fleet will be replaced • Low cost model set to grow in Asia-Pacific and Africa • Growth in the number of Aviation mega-cities driving demand for VLAs © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  13. 13. Month 200X Traffic will double in the next 15 years 2012-2032 World annual RPK (trillion) ICAO total traffic Airbus GMF 2013 4.7% 16 2022-2032 14 4.4% 12 2012-2022 10 5.1% 8 6 Air traffic has doubled every 15 years 4 Air traffic will double in the next 15 years 2 0 1972 1977 1982 Source: ICAO, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
  14. 14. Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032 RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions) % of 2012 world RPK 20-year growth 29% 5.5% 34% Europe 26% 3.8% 22% North America 25% 3.0% 18% 8% 7.1% 12% 20-year world annual traffic growth 5% 6.0% 7% 4.7% 4% 5.8% 4% 3% 5.1% 3% 0 Asia-Pacific 1,000 2012 traffic 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 2012-2032 traffic Middle East Latin America CIS Africa © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. % of 2032 world RPK
  15. 15. Domestic PRC will be the largest flow in 2032 Largest O&D flows in 2032 20-year CAGR 2012 – 2032 Billions RPK Domestic PRC 7.0% Domestic USA 1.9% Intra Western Europe 2.9% Western Europe - USA 3.0% Asia - Western Europe 4.3% Domestic India 9.8% Asia - PRC 6.2% Domestic Brazil 7.0% 2012 Intra Asia 6.1% 2032 Western Europe - Middle East 4.8% Western Europe - South America 4.8% Domestic Asia 5.7% Asia - Middle East 8.0% Western Europe - PRC 5.7% Indian Sub - Middle East 6.1% Asia - USA 4.2% PRC - USA 6.5% Central Europe - Western Europe 5.9% South America - USA 5.3% Indian Sub - USA 6.6% 0 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
  16. 16. Single-aisle: 69% of units; Wide-bodies: 59% of value 20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft 20,000 29,226 GMF 2012 16,000 New Deliveries GMF 2013 12,000 2013 -2032 8,000 4,000 0 Single-aisle Small twin-aisle % units 69% 17% 8% 6% % value 41% 26% 17% 16% Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons) Source: Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Intermediate twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft
  17. 17. Approaching 10,000 A320 Family sales 9,821 firm orders 5,715 deliveries 4,106 firm order backlog (1,758 ceo, 2,348 neo) A take-off or landing every 2.5 seconds, with 99.6% reliability End August 2013 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  18. 18. High oil prices here for the long-term Long-term oil price forecast 180 Brent oil price (current US$ per bbl) History Forecast 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 Source: EIA, IHS CERA (May 2013), Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
  19. 19. A320neo offers environmental benefits • Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to: 1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars • 3,600 tonnes of CO2 the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees • NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6 • 500nm more range or 2 tonnes more payload • Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV Significant environmental improvements © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  20. 20. A320neo leads the 737 MAX in orders and customers 42 customers A320neo 2,348 orders 61% 737 MAX 1,498 orders 39% 20 customers + 8 unannounced orders A320neo is the preferred market option Data to end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  21. 21. A330 Family deliveries pass 1,000 1,256 firm orders 1,008 deliveries 248 backlog A take-off or landing every 25 seconds, with 99.0% reliability To end August 2013 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  22. 22. Maintaining market leadership Delta order 10 x 242t A330-300s to add to their current A330-200/300 fleet © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  23. 23. 242t A330-200 matches mature 787-8 range European capability Trans-Pacific capability MADRID TOKYO ADDIS ABABA MAURITIUS 787-8 7,350nm range with 246 pax A330-200 7,250nm range with 246 pax Pax weight = 95kg, JAR 3% flight profile, LRC, 200nm diversion 787-8 227.9t MTOW, A330-200 242t MTOW © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. NEW YORK DALLAS ORLANDO
  24. 24. A350 XWB 682 firm orders 35 customers 682 backlog To end August 2013 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  25. 25. MSN1 First flight June 14th, 2013 10% of flight test completed – 51 flights, 251 hours flown Data for 19 September 2013 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  26. 26. A350 XWB – a complete long-range family Airbus Boeing A350-1000 777-9X 777-8X A350-900 777-300ER 787-10 A350-800 787-9 787-8 One New Family of technically superior aircraft Two aircraft types a generation apart A step ahead of the 787, a generation beyond the 777 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  27. 27. Unrivalled A350-1000 efficiency A350-1000 is unbeatable LHR + 40T MTOW SIN 777-300ER requires +40t higher MTOW (+20 t. Fuel burnt + 20 t. Structure) The A350-1000 provides a step change in efficiency 6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  28. 28. 42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day … 2012 Aviation Mega-Cities 42 0.8M Aviation Megacities Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities traffic 93% • • • >50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 42 cities Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic; © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  29. 29. … and by 2032 there will be 90 Mega-cities 2032 Aviation Mega-Cities 89 Aviation Megacities 2.2M Daily Passengers: Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities 99% • • • >50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers of long-haul traffic on routes to/from/via 90 cities Long-haul traffic is more and more concentrated on main aviation centres Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic; © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  30. 30. A380 262 firm orders 20 customers 154 backlog 120,000 revenue flights – 1 million flight hours – 44 million passengers carried A take-off or landing every 5 minutes Orders/backlog August 2013 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  31. 31. A380 is the market’s VLA of choice Cumulative net orders for passenger aircraft in airline use 300 Market share (number of orders) 747-8 A380 A380 261 orders 19 airlines 250 11% 200 89% 150 100 50 0 2001 747-8 31orders 4 airlines 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Outselling the competition 8 to 1 As at end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com Does not include VIP versions © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2010 2011 2012
  32. 32. The next chapter for BA A380 in service between LHR-LAX, TODAY! © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  33. 33. Demand for over 29,200 new aircraft Fleet in service evolution; 2013-2032 40,000 + 3.7% per annum 36,556 35,000 30,000 18,817 Growth 25,000 20,000 New aircraft 29,226 17,739 15,000 10,409 Replaced 7,330 Stay in service & Converted 10,000 5,000 0 Beginning 2013 Source: Airbus Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2032
  34. 34. Summary • Strong growth in passenger traffic – resilient growth through a difficult, but improving economic period • Demand for over 29,000 new aircraft by 2032 – ~28,300 passenger aircraft and nearly 900 freighter aircraft • Replacement of ageing fleets – 20 year demand for nearly 11,000 passenger aircraft for replacement, largely in the single-aisle segment • Single-aisle aircraft represent 70% of demand in units, but widebody aircraft represent 60% of value • VLA demand driven by aviation mega-cities – more than 99% of all long-haul passengers will fly to, from or through these cities by 2032 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  35. 35. © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  36. 36. Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Presented by: Bob Lange SVP, Market & Product Strategy
  37. 37. Airbus Global Market Forecast A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast Market Research Trends Analysis • Consumer & Travel Surveys • Tourism • Migration • Traffic flows • Passenger demands Airlines • Business Models • Operations • Competition • Geopolitics Governments & Regulators • Liberalization/ deregulation • Investments and constraints • Geopolitics © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Forecast Traffic • Economics and Econometrics • Fuel costs • Yields • Load Factors • Trade and Value of Goods Network Development • Route planning • Origin and destination demand • Population centers Fleet trends • Aircraft economics • Utilization • Fleet age and retirements
  38. 38. Understanding the reasons for peoples’ journeys is key to understanding the market 27% …of all trips are for Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) Immigration flow by region Pacific North America Latin America Europe/CIS Asia/Middle East Africa Origin Source: UN WTO, UN DESA, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Destination
  39. 39. International students further driving travel Evolution of the students studying abroad Millions of students 4 3 2 1 0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 The number of international students has nearly doubled since 2000 Source: OECD, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  40. 40. What drives the demand of the future? © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  41. 41. World urban population to reach 5 billion by 2030 10 Population (billions) Urbanisation rate History 100% Forecast 9 Urban population 90% 8 Rural population 80% Urbanisation rate 70% 7 60% 6 60% 51% 5 70% 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 20% 1 10% 0 0% 1950 1960 1970 Urban population: 1.3B Source: UN Population Division, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 1980 1990 2.3B 2000 2010 3.5B 2020 2030 5.0B 2040 2050 6.4B
  42. 42. Global Middle Class to more than double Global Middle Class* 5,211 (Millions of people) 5,000 4,000 3,000 Other Asia-Pacific North America Europe & CIS 2,228 3,576 757 578 3,526 2,000 432 x2.4 x4.1 2,038 856 1,000 265 262 253 675 698 675 2012 2022 2032 7,100 7,800 8,400 32% 46% 62% 0 Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus * Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP) © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. World Population % of world population
  43. 43. Month 200X Emerging regions will drive economic growth Real GDP forecast by period and region 9.0% 8.0% 2013 7.0% 2014 20-year CAGR 6.0% World Averages 5.0% 4.0% 20-year CAGR 3.0% 2014 2013 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Japan Europe North America Pacific Source: IHS Global Insight (September 2013), Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. CIS Central America Middle East Asia South America Africa PRC Indian Sub Continent
  44. 44. Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries) Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  45. 45. Aviation shapes the world Origin-destination passenger traffic per city, 2013 – 2032 growth and 2032 volume 2012 2022 2032 Traffic growth (20-year CAGR) Traffic volume (monthly O&D PAX) Source: Sabre, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 0% 0.1 13% 12 25 mio
  46. 46. Emerging economies grew strongly through the crisis Offered capacity for emerging and advanced economies (ASKs) (Base 100 in 2007) Emerging ASKs 160 +55% 150 To/from/within emerging economies* 140 130 120 110 Advanced ASKs To/from/within advanced economies** 100 +4% 90 80 2007 Source: OAG, Airbus * 54 emerging economies ** 31 advanced economies © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  47. 47. Long-haul traffic grows stronger than short haul traffic Evolution of long-haul vs short-haul traffic (ASKs), 1973-2013, Long-haul traffic Index 100 = 1973 * x9.1 1000 Short haul 900 Long haul 800 700 600 Short-haul traffic 500 x6.2 400 300 200 100 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Since 1973, Long-haul traffic has grown 1% per year faster than short-haul traffic Source: OAG * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  48. 48. Long-haul traffic consolidation Evolution of traffic per long-haul airline (ASKs), 1973-2013, Index 100 = 1973 * 400 ASKs per Airline 350 Number of Airlines 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 Since 1973, the amount of ASKs carried per airline has nearly quadrupled Source: OAG, Airbus * Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  49. 49. Today’s Aviation Mega-Cities will continue to drive a huge amount of long-haul traffic Passenger traffic at cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers Source: Sabre, Airbus © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  50. 50. Cabin Supplier Council 13/09/2013 Details behind the forecast >200 global traffic flows >10.000 country pairs >200.000 O&D city pairs >1.000.000 O&D city pair routings Macro traffic forecast © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Micro network forecast
  51. 51. Airbus GMF Methodology to Seabury GMF 2013 new routes The GMF 2013 has around 4,000 new airline / airport-pairs by 2032 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
  52. 52. Airbus Global Market Forecast Nearly 800 airlines and their subsidiaries are analyzed Airlines distribution per region Airlines distribution per type Number of airlines 120 Installed seats in service (outside circle) Number of airlines (inside circle) 109 100 100 82 81 8% 80 64 11% 6% 5% 16% 60 50 20% 43 41 40 5% 37 32 30 20 19 36 49% 5% 17 9% 8% 0 Global Network Major Network Small Network LCC Regional & Affiliate Charter Page 52 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. 58%
  53. 53. …driving future demand of twin-aisle & VLA segments 20-year demand by category Worldwide Demand Single-aisle: 20,242 Twin-aisle & VLA: 8,984 North America Europe CIS Asia Pacific Middle East Africa Aircraft Demand Twin-aisle/ SingleVLA aisle Source: GMF 2013 © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Latin America
  54. 54. Worldwide demand for 29,226 passenger aircraft 20 Year Aircraft Demand NorthCISEast Latin America Asia-Pacific Middle Europe Africa World America 30 25 20 (Thousands) Africa CIS Latin America Middle East 2032 RPKs (Trillions) 14 12 10 North America 8 15 Europe 6 10 4 29,226 Aircraft 10,941Aircraft 5,952 5,847 2,075 2,307 1.116 988 Aircraft 5 Traffic by domicile: © AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. ~14 trillion RPKs in 34% 22% 18% of 2031 World 12%of 2031 World 7% 4% 3% RPKs 2031 AsiaPacific 2 0 0 Aircraft Demand RPKs

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