Global Youth Futures Projecting the Roles of:   -Anticipatory Knowledge   -Continuous Innovation   -Disruptive Technologie...
Agenda: Global Youth Futures <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Anticipatory Knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cont...
The Salon Method… <ul><li>Is inherently multicultural and multi-temporal </li></ul><ul><li>Is intended to evoke intrinsic ...
Our preferred dynamic is  Leapfrogging
Leapfrogging… <ul><li>is goal-oriented </li></ul><ul><li>means to get ahead of the competition or the present state of the...
Some Words on ‘Leapfrogging…’ <ul><li>Is a leadership necessity </li></ul><ul><li>Saves precious time </li></ul><ul><li>Bu...
7/31/2007 #1 Anticipatory Knowledge Continuous Innovation Disruptive Technology ©
YOUTH FUTURES:  ANTICIPATORY KNOWLEDGE ROLES Arthur Harkins University of Minnesota 7/31/2007 ©
Preamble for historians and social realists… <ul><li>A future can be located anywhere in virtual or clock time. </li></ul>...
First, what is knowledge? <ul><li>Knowledge is the result of thought processes that create meaning. </li></ul><ul><li>Know...
Second, what is anticipatory knowledge? <ul><li>Anticipatory knowledge is the result of everyday and professional/artistic...
Problems retaining and using anticipatory knowledge <ul><li>Youth have a major problem with “locked up” anticipatory knowl...
Comprehending the problem I <ul><li>Our task is to help youth unlock their tacit anticipatory knowledge and make it social...
Leapfrogging the problem I  <ul><li>These steps act to reorient schools and youth service agencies from the present and pa...
Leapfrogging the problem II <ul><li>Such changes also permit  Leapfrog Backward , or actions that project, anticipate, and...
Leapfrogging the problem III <ul><li>Through Leapfrog Forward and Backward, alternative youth futures are placed in virtua...
Leapfrogging the problem IV <ul><li>Leapfrog Forward, Leapfrog Backward, and alternative presents create:  </li></ul><ul><...
The bottom line I <ul><li>The study of the future now produces the study, creation, and actualization of alternative prese...
The bottom line II <ul><li>The civic and work forces now have millions of productive new members. </li></ul><ul><li>Youth ...
A reminder to conventional planners and literalists… <ul><li>No part of history or pre-history, or ‘the’ present, is exclu...
7/31/2007 Anticipatory Knowledge #2 Continuous Innovation Disruptive Technology ©
Innovation <ul><li>Application of  new  ideas & knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of  marketable  value </li></ul><ul><...
Continuous Innovation Society (‘S-curve’ Society) <ul><li>Constantly ‘emerging’ </li></ul><ul><li>Non-stop development  & ...
Continuous Innovation Society Involves <ul><li>Shifting emphasis on knowledge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowing ‘What’    Kno...
Emerging Open Source Innovation (Everyone Involved    Global Youth) <ul><li>Relatively new concept  (but not for youth) <...
What Does This Mean For Global Youth Futures? <ul><li>Opportunities for greater </li></ul><ul><li>involvement </li></ul><u...
Global Youth Opportunities -  In Continuous Innovation Societies - <ul><li>Everyone a novice </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fast ch...
Global Youth Futures: Creating Conditions for Continuous Innovation <ul><li>Learning:  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on know...
Continuous Innovation, PBL,  and Global Youth Futures <ul><li>Learning for performance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuous le...
How Can This Be Accomplished? <ul><li>On-demand wireless: </li></ul><ul><li>Wideband, high-speed communications   </li></u...
Global Youth Participation - Expectations of Innovation Society - 7/31/2007 © <ul><ul><li>Guaranteed leading-edge    socie...
Future Directions <ul><li>Ever greater portions of the global youth population  empowered ,  enabled ,  </li></ul><ul><li>...
7/31/2007 Anticipatory Knowledge Continuous Innovation #3 Disruptive Technologies ©
Disruptive John W. Moravec, Ph.D. University of Minnesota www.educationfutures.com Technologies Disruptive Technologies 7/...
What are disruptive technologies? <ul><li>Disruptive innovations </li></ul><ul><li>Contribute to shifts in paradigms of sc...
Examples of disruptive technologies in education <ul><li>In the past… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Slate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
The big picture <ul><li>Technological innovations are critical for national  and  global competitiveness </li></ul><ul><li...
Impacts on youth <ul><li>Challenges </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Today’s PK-12 education environment shields youth from innovatio...
Learning from China <ul><li>Hand-held learning devices are used by youth… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>to learn English </li></ul...
Next: ‘Word’  Cafe 7/31/2007 ©
“ Word Café” <ul><li>Create context </li></ul><ul><li>Explore important  questions </li></ul><ul><li>Connect diverse  pers...
Critical Questions for this Salon:  Global Youth Futures <ul><li>What if we do not adopt and integrate disruptive technolo...
Group Secretary Reports (Sharing Collective Conversations) <ul><li>Discoveries </li></ul><ul><li>Consensus </li></ul><ul><...
Concluding Remarks! <ul><li>What we learned about  ‘Global Youth Futures” </li></ul><ul><li>Important issues for the futur...
Next Steps <ul><li>Sign-up sheet with  your e-mail </li></ul><ul><li>Results of “Word Café”  will be sent to all </li></ul...
Thank You! 7/31/2007 ©
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Global youth futures: Projecting the roles of anticipatory knowledge, continuous innovation, and disruptive technologies

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  • Global youth futures: Projecting the roles of anticipatory knowledge, continuous innovation, and disruptive technologies

    1. 1. Global Youth Futures Projecting the Roles of: -Anticipatory Knowledge -Continuous Innovation -Disruptive Technologies Arthur Harkins George Kubik John Moravec 7/31/2007 ©
    2. 2. Agenda: Global Youth Futures <ul><li>Overview </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Anticipatory Knowledge </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuous Innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Disruptive Technologies </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Word Café </li></ul><ul><li>Group Secretary Reports </li></ul><ul><li>Concluding Thoughts </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    3. 3. The Salon Method… <ul><li>Is inherently multicultural and multi-temporal </li></ul><ul><li>Is intended to evoke intrinsic anticipatory knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Is intended to make such knowledge explicit as social information </li></ul><ul><li>Allows collection of such social information for posting and further discussion on the Education Futures Web blog </li></ul><ul><li>Requires a Salon Secretary at each table </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    4. 4. Our preferred dynamic is Leapfrogging
    5. 5. Leapfrogging… <ul><li>is goal-oriented </li></ul><ul><li>means to get ahead of the competition or the present state of the art through innovative, time-and-cost-saving means </li></ul><ul><li>is about “leaping” over hindrances or unnecessary “evolutionary” steps to achieve a goal </li></ul><ul><li>is a mindset, futures-focused and backcastable to the present </li></ul><ul><li>… ultimately is definable only by you </li></ul>
    6. 6. Some Words on ‘Leapfrogging…’ <ul><li>Is a leadership necessity </li></ul><ul><li>Saves precious time </li></ul><ul><li>Builds institutional and community prestige </li></ul><ul><li>Allows for individual differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Works best if everybody collaborates </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    7. 7. 7/31/2007 #1 Anticipatory Knowledge Continuous Innovation Disruptive Technology ©
    8. 8. YOUTH FUTURES: ANTICIPATORY KNOWLEDGE ROLES Arthur Harkins University of Minnesota 7/31/2007 ©
    9. 9. Preamble for historians and social realists… <ul><li>A future can be located anywhere in virtual or clock time. </li></ul><ul><li>This means that no part of history or pre-history, or ‘the’ present, is excluded from what we shall propose to bring youth into newly productive relationships with civic and work forces. </li></ul><ul><li>Our approach is to link anticipatory knowledge and futuring processes to the creation of alternative presents. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    10. 10. First, what is knowledge? <ul><li>Knowledge is the result of thought processes that create meaning. </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge is built up from information, much of it tacit rather than explicit. </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge reverts to information once it is made explicit by the originator and/or within a social context. </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge is developed continuously within healthy, involved people, including youth. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    11. 11. Second, what is anticipatory knowledge? <ul><li>Anticipatory knowledge is the result of everyday and professional/artistic thinking about “what could be”. </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipatory knowledge is the major product of anticipatory thinking. </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipatory thinking is a survival mechanism. </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipatory knowledge becomes new information once it is made explicit by the originator and/or within a social context. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    12. 12. Problems retaining and using anticipatory knowledge <ul><li>Youth have a major problem with “locked up” anticipatory knowledge. </li></ul><ul><li>Most anticipatory knowledge is locked up inside the minds of individuals, rendering it useless beyond the impact of the originating mind. It is “only” implicit. </li></ul><ul><li>Personal, social and cultural contexts must support anticipatory knowledge if it is to become explicit and transform to useable new information. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    13. 13. Comprehending the problem I <ul><li>Our task is to help youth unlock their tacit anticipatory knowledge and make it socially and culturally available as information. </li></ul><ul><li>To do this, our schools and youth services institutions must allocate at least one-third of their resources to promoting anticipatory thought. </li></ul><ul><li>The other two-thirds of their resources must be allocated to anticipatory practices. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    14. 14. Leapfrogging the problem I <ul><li>These steps act to reorient schools and youth service agencies from the present and past toward alternative futures. </li></ul><ul><li>These changes permit Leapfrog Forward , or actions that project, anticipate, and create detailed alternative futures. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    15. 15. Leapfrogging the problem II <ul><li>Such changes also permit Leapfrog Backward , or actions that project, anticipate, and create alternative presents that are suitable contexts for selected youth futures. </li></ul><ul><li>If no suitable presents are available, they must be anticipated, virtually created, and then concretized to make suitable contexts for selected youth futures. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    16. 16. Leapfrogging the problem III <ul><li>Through Leapfrog Forward and Backward, alternative youth futures are placed in virtual time for the purpose of making them part of selected, alternative presents, where concrete actions can be undertaken. </li></ul><ul><li>Leapfrog Forward and Leapfrog Backward, together with the creation of suitable alternative presents, suspends alternative futures from clock time, allowing them to become demystified new contexts for school and youth service agency activities. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    17. 17. Leapfrogging the problem IV <ul><li>Leapfrog Forward, Leapfrog Backward, and alternative presents create: </li></ul><ul><li>Options for youth to use their imaginations. </li></ul><ul><li>Permission to use their ‘natural’ tendency to create anticipatory knowledge. </li></ul><ul><li>Opportunities for both of these to mine alternative futures to create new presents. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    18. 18. The bottom line I <ul><li>The study of the future now produces the study, creation, and actualization of alternative presents, a new product for futures research and development. </li></ul><ul><li>Youth can now work imaginatively in real and virtual worlds without suffering the incapacity of adults to actualize futures and to suspend clock time for that purpose. </li></ul><ul><li>Youth are now free to use their imaginations, and to create anticipatory knowledge beyond conventional social and personal boundaries. </li></ul><ul><li>Youth are now free to develop, explore, and disseminate explicit anticipatory knowledge. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    19. 19. The bottom line II <ul><li>The civic and work forces now have millions of productive new members. </li></ul><ul><li>Youth now have a seriously important new complex of roles to play in forging new futures. </li></ul><ul><li>Schools now become interesting and worth their budgets. Youth service agencies set their sights much higher. </li></ul><ul><li>Most adults now require reeducation and retraining! </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    20. 20. A reminder to conventional planners and literalists… <ul><li>No part of history or pre-history, or ‘the’ present, is excluded from what we have proposed to bring youth into productive relationships with civic and work forces. </li></ul><ul><li>Schools and social service agencies can, if they choose, make futuring the basic engine of their professional processes. </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    21. 21. 7/31/2007 Anticipatory Knowledge #2 Continuous Innovation Disruptive Technology ©
    22. 22. Innovation <ul><li>Application of new ideas & knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of marketable value </li></ul><ul><li>Shortest time to market </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    23. 23. Continuous Innovation Society (‘S-curve’ Society) <ul><li>Constantly ‘emerging’ </li></ul><ul><li>Non-stop development & change </li></ul><ul><li>Continuous creation & destruction (markets, goods, services) </li></ul><ul><li>On-going experimentation </li></ul><ul><li>(new ideas & knowledge) </li></ul>7/31/2007  Exponential ‘ S’ Curve  ©  
    24. 24. Continuous Innovation Society Involves <ul><li>Shifting emphasis on knowledge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Knowing ‘What’  Knowing ‘How’ & ‘Why’ </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Memorizing  Creating /Applying </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ideas & knowledge as resources </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Infinite resource </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Unlimited variety </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Everyone a resource </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Rapid cycles of application </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creative construction & deconstruction (knowledge, ideas, markets, infrastructure…) </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    25. 25. Emerging Open Source Innovation (Everyone Involved  Global Youth) <ul><li>Relatively new concept (but not for youth) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nobody owns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Everyone uses </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Anyone’ can improve </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Collaboration economy </li></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Prosumer’ involvement (growing youth market) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Requires most creative & innovative individuals </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Shared global R&D (increasingly connected) Source of endless innovation </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    26. 26. What Does This Mean For Global Youth Futures? <ul><li>Opportunities for greater </li></ul><ul><li>involvement </li></ul><ul><ul><li>increasing % of population </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>regardless of age, gender, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>previous preparation </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Excellence redefined </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Repetition replaced by unique solutions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reduced reliance on precedence </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning by memorization ineffective </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>New basics : innovation, problem solving, creativity, knowledge creation… </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    27. 27. Global Youth Opportunities - In Continuous Innovation Societies - <ul><li>Everyone a novice </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Fast change  continuous learning </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assumption of capability based on longevity disappears </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fast accommodation of new ways of doing (= Performance support) </li></ul><ul><li>Learning seamlessly merges into work (= Perform. Based Learning) </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    28. 28. Global Youth Futures: Creating Conditions for Continuous Innovation <ul><li>Learning: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Based on knowledge creation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Help ubiquitously embedded (virtual & physical environments) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Knowledge </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Creation linked to application (always) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Fusion of learning & doing </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Collapse: WAT  JAT  JIT  RT (PBL) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Software support </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All levels of ability </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    29. 29. Continuous Innovation, PBL, and Global Youth Futures <ul><li>Learning for performance </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuous learning = basis of innovation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Perf. = measure & means of learning </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Performance-based Learning (PBL) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning by doing </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(virtual space,’ simulation, perf. support, fail-soft exp.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assisted by human & software coaches </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Occurs at ‘Point of Performance’ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Classical learning </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Learning by lecture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(brick & mortar ‘place’, sheltered students, fail-safe envts.) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Human teachers, trailing-edge technology </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Remote classroom (WAT education) </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    30. 30. How Can This Be Accomplished? <ul><li>On-demand wireless: </li></ul><ul><li>Wideband, high-speed communications </li></ul><ul><li>Networks (BAN, LAN, WAN, GAN …) </li></ul><ul><li>People-amplifier devices </li></ul><ul><li>Distributed competence software </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    31. 31. Global Youth Participation - Expectations of Innovation Society - 7/31/2007 © <ul><ul><li>Guaranteed leading-edge societal performance (now & future, everyone) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Elimination of youth performance divides (everywhere) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Continuously updated workforce (throughout global societies) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Instant competencies & competitiveness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(among youth everywhere) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Youth cultures based on innov & performance (indiv-collective-societal) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Youth that are </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Leap-frog’ ready! </li></ul></ul>
    32. 32. Future Directions <ul><li>Ever greater portions of the global youth population empowered , enabled , </li></ul><ul><li>and engaged to innovate </li></ul><ul><li>and participate globally! </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    33. 33. 7/31/2007 Anticipatory Knowledge Continuous Innovation #3 Disruptive Technologies ©
    34. 34. Disruptive John W. Moravec, Ph.D. University of Minnesota www.educationfutures.com Technologies Disruptive Technologies 7/31/2007
    35. 35. What are disruptive technologies? <ul><li>Disruptive innovations </li></ul><ul><li>Contribute to shifts in paradigms of science, creativity, and culture </li></ul><ul><li>Society considers youth to be key innovators and early adopters (not necessarily so, but…) </li></ul>7/31/2007 www.educationfutures.com
    36. 36. Examples of disruptive technologies in education <ul><li>In the past… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Slate </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Steam engine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal computer </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>iPod </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Web 2.0 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>m-learning devices </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Looking ahead… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Semantic Web </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Social and cultural software </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>General artificial intelligence </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 www.educationfutures.com
    37. 37. The big picture <ul><li>Technological innovations are critical for national and global competitiveness </li></ul><ul><li>We (U.S. Americans) are ignorant of disruptive innovations in education </li></ul>7/31/2007 www.educationfutures.com
    38. 38. Impacts on youth <ul><li>Challenges </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Today’s PK-12 education environment shields youth from innovations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Preference of sustaining technologies over disruptive technologies in education </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Youth are viewed as a group to market innovations to, rather than co-create with </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Opportunities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Youth become empowered to innovate in non-formal environments </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Youth may construct new environments, meanings and cultures </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Youth may construct viable alternative futures </li></ul></ul>7/31/2007 www.educationfutures.com
    39. 39. Learning from China <ul><li>Hand-held learning devices are used by youth… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>to learn English </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>to transmit curricula from top-ranked teachers </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>to pass exams (“ethical cheating”) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>They think we’re using this stuff! </li></ul>7/31/2007 www.educationfutures.com
    40. 40. Next: ‘Word’ Cafe 7/31/2007 ©
    41. 41. “ Word Café” <ul><li>Create context </li></ul><ul><li>Explore important questions </li></ul><ul><li>Connect diverse perspectives </li></ul><ul><li>Encourage participation </li></ul><ul><li>Listen & share </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    42. 42. Critical Questions for this Salon: Global Youth Futures <ul><li>What if we do not adopt and integrate disruptive technologies into education – but the Chinese succeed in doing so? </li></ul><ul><li>Our institutions are lagging further behind and failing youth – what might we do to “future proof” our youth from obsolescence in favor of continuous innovation? </li></ul><ul><li>What are the positive and negative implications of “seeding” anticipatory knowledge throughout entire curricula? </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    43. 43. Group Secretary Reports (Sharing Collective Conversations) <ul><li>Discoveries </li></ul><ul><li>Consensus </li></ul><ul><li>Divergence </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    44. 44. Concluding Remarks! <ul><li>What we learned about ‘Global Youth Futures” </li></ul><ul><li>Important issues for the future(s) </li></ul><ul><li>Other? </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    45. 45. Next Steps <ul><li>Sign-up sheet with your e-mail </li></ul><ul><li>Results of “Word Café” will be sent to all </li></ul><ul><li>More discussion: www.educationfutures.com </li></ul>7/31/2007 ©
    46. 46. Thank You! 7/31/2007 ©

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