A New Paradigm of knowledge production in Minnesota higher education

A New Paradigm of knowledge production in Minnesota higher education A Delphi study John W Moravec University of Minnesota April 6, 2007 www.educationfutures.com/dissertation

Overview

Three driving factors of the New Paradigm

Globalization

Rise of the knowledge society

Accelerating change

Methodology

Findings

Next steps

New Paradigm model Globalization Knowledge Society Accelerating Change New Paradigm

Globalization

Dichotomies

Local vs. global

Homogenization vs. heterogenization

Periphery vs. core

Rise of the knowledge society and the knowledge economy

Modes 1-3+

Socially distributed knowledge

Academic capitalism in higher education

Knowledge-producing institutions can no longer isolate themselves

Can we manage knowledge?

Accelerating change

Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns

Technological Singularity

Enormous advances in genetics, nanotechnology and robotics coming soon

Accelerating change Time Level of Advancement J

A New Paradigm Note. Old paradigm and emergent paradigm domains, from fundamental relationships to reality , adapted from Schwartz, P., & Ogilvy, J. A. (1979). The emergent paradigm: Changing patterns of thought and belief . SRI International. Globalized Globalizing Local Place Contextual Perspectival Objective Reality Creative destruction Morphogenic Assembly Change process Anticausal Mutual Linear Causality Design Indeterminate Deterministic Worldview Synergetic Holographic Mechanical Relationships of parts Intentional, self-organizing Heterarchic Hierarchic Conceptualization of order Complex creative (teleological) Complex Simple Fundamental relationships New Emergent Old Domain Paradigm

The problem

The three phenomena driving the New Paradigm are rarely explored together as a whole, particularly as it pertains to higher education leadership.

Research questions

What are the potential futures of higher education in Minnesota related to the three driving trends of the New Paradigm?

What are the implications and policy actions for higher education given these futures?

Three phases of research Delphi round 1 : First ranking, Identify new items Delphi round 2 : Second ranking (rank all items + any new items) No: Repeat Round 2 as necessary Did group reach con-sensus? Environmental scan/Literature review : Identify items for Delphi rounds Analyze and report findings Phase I Phase II Phase III Collect final round data Yes

Environmental scan

Qualitative and explorative approach to divining visions of the future and providing inputs to strategic planning

Two general approaches

Expert panels

Literature review

See handout for statements generated in environmental scan

The Delphi method

Consensus building around an issue by an expert panel through anonymous debate

Forecast phenomena, desirability, and develop strategic action

In this study

Three rounds of questionnaires

Statements from environmental scan inputted to participants

Additional statements were requested

Delphi experts

University presidents (or equivalent office holders), or their designates, at the University of Minnesota, Minnesota State Colleges and Universities (MnSCU), and Minnesota private colleges and universities ( N =83)

38 invited participants

20 first round respondents

18 second round respondents

14 third round respondents

Analysis and reporting process flow – third round data Note. Adapted from figure 11.1 in Berg, B. L. (2004). Qualitative research methods for the social sciences (5th ed., p. 286). Boston: Pearson. Revise, if necessary Determine sociological constructs for analysis Open coding of data to establish grounded categories Sort data into categories Report and discuss findings Determine criteria of selection for sorting data chunks into the analytic and grounded categories

Question 1: What are the potential futures of higher education in Minnesota related to the three driving trends of the New Paradigm?

Globalization

1: Higher education institutions will lead in the management of tensions between global and the local, homogenization and heterogenization, and between modernity and tradition. 2: Universities will create new traditions to enable progress and economic prosperity in a globalized future. 3: Universities will align their programs toward the development of global citizens. 4: Universities will adopt an “anywhere-anytime” model of educational products and 5: services. 5: Colleges and universities will reorganize to allow students to take credits at any combination of universities. 6: Through assertive leadership, universities will become entrepreneurial, innovative, and adaptive to their environments.

Knowledge society

7: The future purpose of the university is to facilitate the globalization of knowledge. 8: University leadership will place less emphasis on managing and will place greater emphasis on supporting the organization. 9: Information and communications technology (ICT) will aid in the distribution of knowledge and new knowledge forms into academic practices. 10: Rising tuition costs will lead a trend toward privatization of public institutions. 11: Universities will orient themselves toward the market-based capitalization of knowledge, and will no longer be able to separate themselves from corporations or states. 12: “Siloed” academic disciplines will no longer exist.

Accelerating change

13: To enable the survival of the university, the pace of technological innovation will be restrained. 14: Universities will no longer cater exclusively to the needs of human knowledge production. 15: Advances in technology and rapid virtualization of the university will result in the reduction of academic jobs. 16: Advances in technology will result in a marked decrease in academic freedoms and in an increase in performance measurement. 17: Universities will integrate gaming and simulational technologies into teaching and learning practices. 18: Information and communications technology systems will allow for student-student and/or student-technology-student knowledge production in universities.

Additional items

19: Revenues and savings generated by distance learning will free public universities from their dependence on public funding. 20: Universities will streamline processes and improve efficiencies to reduce costs, decreasing the need for dramatic tuition increases and funding increases. 21: Universities will regard themselves as businesses with commodities (knowledge and skills) to sell, customers (students and employers) to serve, and constituencies (legislators and board members) to answer to. 22: Faculty employment rules, such as tenure and work hours, will be abolished or changed radically. 23: New types of innovative institutions grow in public acceptance and in status within the higher education community. 24: Rising tuition costs will lead to increased efficiencies through ICT, the elimination of tenure, 40-60 hour work-weeks common in industry, and improved building utilization.

Question 2: What are the implications and policy actions for higher education given these futures?

Ten thematic categories :

Accountability

Attend to knowledge production

Change or reconfigure curricula

Collaboration

External relations

Faculty relations

Structural realignment and repositioning

Reconfiguration of funding, resources and measurement

Student relations

Technology leadership

Leadership implications: Globalization

Leaders must

balance progress and economic prosperity with maintaining tradition;

create new traditions to enable progress and economic prosperity in a globalized future;

align their programs toward the development of global citizens; and,

become entrepreneurial, innovative, and adaptive to their environments through assertive leadership.

Higher education leaders must also work to increase the likelihood that

universities will adopt an “anywhere-anytime” model of educational products and services; and,

colleges and universities will reorganize to allow students to take credits at any combination of universities.

Leadership implications: Knowledge society

Leaders must continue to align their universities toward their preferred futures where ICT will assist in the distribution of knowledge and new knowledge forms into academic practices .

Higher education leaders must also work to increase the likelihood that

the university will facilitate the globalization of knowledge;

university leadership will place less emphasis on managing and will place greater emphasis on supporting the organization; and,

“ siloed” academic disciplines will no longer exist.

Leadership implications: Accelerating change

Leaders must

integrate gaming and simulational technologies into teaching and learning practices; and,

allow for student-student and/or student-technology-student knowledge production in universities through information and communications technology systems.

Higher education leaders must also reorient their policies and practices to attend to the reality that advances in technology and rapid virtualization of the university will result in the reduction of academic jobs .

Guidance for further research

Solidify findings by reiterating Delphi process until conclusive group consensus is achieved on all items.

The impact of accelerating change on higher educational institutions and education leaders needs to be explored in greater detail.

Broaden the scope of investigation to develop a more global analysis.

Maximize the effect found by Kurth-Schai et al (2000) that “suggest[s] that participation [in Delphi exercises] catalyses and supports clarification of facts and values, exploration of alternative perspectives and possibilities, and development of critical, creative and systemic thought” (p. 95).

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