SMC Global Daily Report Commodities 04.10.13

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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3536.50 Down 10.09.13 3359.50 3550.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3559.50 Down 10.09.13 3370.00 3575.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Oct) 18-Oct-13 683.35 Up 25.09.13 672.85 650.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Nov) 20-Nov-13 673.55 Up 25.09.13 670.35 645.00 RM seeds (Oct) 18-Oct-13 3501.00 Up 21.08.13 3470.00 3450.00 RM seeds (Nov) 20-Nov-13 3566.00 Up 21.08.13 3497.00 3450.00 Turmeric (Oct) 18-Oct-13 4684.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5116.00 - Turmeric (Nov) 20-Nov-13 4834.00 Sideways 21.08.13 5176.00 - Jeera (Oct) 18-Oct-13 12607.50 Down 24.09.13 12985.00 13600.00 Jeera (Nov) 20-Nov-13 12852.50 Down 24.09.13 13197.50 13700.00 Chilli (Oct) 18-Oct-13 5848.00 Sideways 01.10.13 5814.00 - Chilli (Nov) 20-Nov-13 5952.00 Down 06.09.13 5770.00 6050.00 Chana (Oct) 18-Oct-13 2902.00 Down 27.09.13 2903.00 3110.00 Chana (Nov) 20-Nov-13 2999.00 Up 21.08.13 3274.00 2960.00 Cocud (Dec) 20-Dec-13 1478.00 Down 19.09.13 1438.00 1520.00 Cocud (Jan 14) 20-Jan-14 1485.00 Down 19.09.13 1456.00 1530.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct-13 705.90 Down 24.09.13 747.50 770.00 Cardamom (Nov) 15-Nov-13 748.60 Down 24.09.13 794.20 810.00 Mentha Oil (Oct) 31-Oct-13 869.20 Down 10.09.13 905.50 930.00 Mentha Oil (Nov) 30-Nov-13 883.20 Down 10.09.13 892.30 920.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 4th October, 2013
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 03.10.13) Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.79 Sideways 13.09.13 21.72 - Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1317.60 Sideways 12.09.13 1330.60 - Crude Oil (Nov) ($) 22-Oct-13 103.31 Down 24.09.13 103.13 107.00 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-13 3.50 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.90 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 03.10.13) Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 48653.00 Down 10.09.13 52235.00 52000.00 Gold (Oct) 5-Oct-13 30204.00 Down 10.09.13 30753.00 31000.00 Crude Oil (Oct) 21-Oct-13 6453.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6650.00 Natural Gas (Oct) 28-Oct-13 219.80 Down 06.09.13 229.60 234.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 03.10.13) Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 454.40 Down 06.09.13 474.25 480.00 Aluminum (Oct) 31-Oct-13 111.95 Sideways 27.09.13 115.20 - Zinc (Oct) 31-Oct-13 115.30 Down 06.09.13 121.50 122.00 Lead (Oct) 31-Oct-13 127.45 Down 09.09.13 137.95 134.00 Nickel (Oct) 31-Oct-13 844.10 Down 06.09.13 903.10 920.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 03.10.13) Copper 3 Months 7185.00 Sideways 29.08.13 7153.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1827.00 Down 04.09.13 1789.50 1880.00 Zinc 3 Months 1868.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00 Lead 3 Months 2060.00 Sideways 13.09.13 2071.00 - Nickel 3 Months 13525.00 Down 04.09.13 13680.00 14800.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Spices: Chilli futures (Oct) may witness some consolidation facing resistance at 6000 levels amid profit booking. At the spot market, Chilli334 prices were quoting at Rs 4,500-6,200 per quintal in the Guntur spot market. The total arrivals yesterday stood at 40,000 bags (5,000 bags of Khammam teja). Jeera futures may trade with a bearish bias as a stronger rupee is bringing worries about export demand. The rupee breached 62 per dollar mark as the greenback weakened against other global currencies. The rupee has already reversed some of its losses that it had incurred during May-August period -- in September following measures taken by the central bank to boost inflows. The currency gained about 5% against the dollar, which is its first monthly gain since April. The spot jeera prices were trading in the range of Rs 13,500- 14,500 per quintal at Unjha Mandi. Best quality was trading in the range of Rs 15,000-16,000 per quintal. Cardamom futures (Nov) is seen tot remain below 750 levels in view of increased in the arrivals amid slowed buying. Oilseeds: CPO futures are likely to trade further downside tracking bearish sentiments of Malaysian counter. Malaysian palm oil futures fell for a second day on Thursday as the U.S. government shutdown buoyed the ringgit currency, curbing demand from overseas buyers. The Malaysian ringgit rose 1.1 percent to 3.1920 against the dollar early on Thursday, adding pressure on palm prices as it made the ringgit- priced feedstock more expensive for overseas buyers and refiners. Lingering bearish sentiment on competing soybeans also weighed on palm prices. Mustard futures (Oct) will possibly trade with a negative bias facing resistance near 3600 levels. Rapeseed prices in India's northern Rajasthan state including state capital Jaipur depicted an easy trend. The total arrivals of rapeseed, in Rajasthan yesterday were placed at 35,000-45,000 bags of 85 kg each. In Jaipur and Kota prices declined on profit booking. Prices also moved down in Alwar, Bharatpur and Kherli markets on slack demand from upcountry markets. Soybean futures (Oct) is expected to maintain its upside bias taking support above 3450 levels. There are reports that excessive rainfall in a couple of major soybean-growing areas damaged the crop, leading to a decline in average yield this year. As per survey conducted by SOPA, the all India estimated yield for Kharif 2013 is 1,079kg per hectare, as compared to 1,185kg per hectare during Kharif 2012, which is decreased by 8.94 per cent. Other Commodities: Chana futures are expected to consolidate with upside being capped. The adequate domestic stock levels and expected arrival of imported chana during October-November, may add to the bearish sentiments. Sugar futures may fall further as the outlook of the sweetener is bleak as exports are not happening & local demand is weak. Carry-over stocks of sugar on Oct. 1 may jump to 8 million tonnes from 6.2 million a year earlier. The upside price movement in Kapas futures may remain capped on reports that the production of cotton estimated at an all time record of 35.30 million bales (of 170 kg each), has registered an increase of 5.60 million bales as compared to average cotton production of 29.70 million bales. The Cotton Advisory Board is set to hold its first meeting this season on October 10, 2013. On the demand side, the mills currently have low stocks and are buying for their immediate needs. Market Update (Agro) Market Update (Metals & Energy) CHINA MARKETS ARE CLOSED FOR NATIONAL DAY HOLIDAYS Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to remain sideways on volatile path as investors will eye the nonfarm payroll data scheduled later today. Gold can trade in range of 29400-30000 while silver can move in range of 47500-50000. Gold is set for its biggest weekly drop in three weeks but declines have been kept in check by a partial U.S. government shutdown that threatens to hurt economic growth, increasing bullion's safe-haven appeal. With Chinese markets closed for the National Day holiday through Monday and no major U.S. data release expected due to the shutdown, gold was trading in a tight range during Asian hours on Friday. Fed officials have said this week that the lack of data was making it difficult to read the economy and the Fed might have to keep monetary policy for longer to help offset the harm caused by political fighting in Washington. Base Metals: Base metal complex may witness some lower level buying. Copper may move in range of 450-465 while nickel may remain in range of 860-890 and zinc may move in range of 114-116.Lead may hover in range of 127-130 in MCX. London copper drifted on Friday, and was set for its biggest weekly loss in three weeks as worries about U.S. fiscal stability tarnished the outlook for demand, while top consumer China remained on holiday. The shutdown of the U.S. government appeared likely to drag on for another week and possibly longer as lawmakers consumed day three of the shutdown with a stalling game and there was no end in sight until the next crisis hits Washington around Oct. 17. Energy: Crude oil can trade on flat note tracking mixed overseas clues. Crude oil can move in range of 6400-6500 in MCX. Brent futures fell below $109 a barrel on Friday on concerns that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown would hurt oil demand, but losses were limited as a storm in the Gulf of Mexico curbed supply. Oil followed most other commodities lower as the U.S. government shutdown stretched to a third day, with concern brewing over another fiscal crisis set to hit Washington in about two weeks. Congress must increase the country's borrowing limit on Oct. 17 or risk default, a situation many fear would be far worse than the shutdown arising from a budget standoff. Energy companies in the Gulf of Mexico started shutting in production on Thursday and were evacuating some workers as Tropical Storm Karen headed toward a crucial part of the basin, which overall provides nearly a fifth of daily U.S. oil output. Bearish trend may continue in Natural gas counter as it can trade in range of 216-223 in MCX.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/ Neutral 18:00 USD Change in Private Payrolls Medium 180k 152K Metals and Crude oil Favourable 18:00 USD Unemployment Rate High 7.30% 7.30% Metals and Crude oil Neutral 18:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) Medium 0.20% 0.20% Metals and Crude oil Neutral 18:00 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls High 180k 169K Metals and Crude oil Favourable Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011- 25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.