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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report


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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 27th August, 2014 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3339.00 Down 28.07.14 3659.00 3500.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-14 3219.00 Down 05.08.14 3400.00 3350.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Sep) 19-Sep-14 619.10 Down 09.07.14 679.80 640.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Oct ) 20-Oct-14 578.85 Down 09.07.14 633.20 600.00 RM seeds (Sep) 19-Sep-14 3569.00 Down 06.08.14 3589.00 3650.00 RM seeds (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3600.00 Down 06.08.14 3643.00 3620.00 Turmeric (Sep) 19-Sep-14 6506.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 6800.00 Turmeric (Oct) 20-Oct-14 6698.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 7000.00 Jeera (Sep) 19-Sep-14 11150.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11500.00 Jeera (Oct) 20-Oct-14 11265.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11650.00 Chana (Sep) 19-Sep-14 2856.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Chana (Oct) 20-Oct-14 2941.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Cocud (Sep) 19-Sep-14 1766.00 Up 11.08.14 1752.00 1750.00 Cocud (Dec) 19-Dec-14 1478.00 Sideways 20.08.14 1511.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Sept) 15-Sept-14 925.80 Down 26.08.14 925.80 970.00 Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct -14 920.80 Up 05.08.14 924.00 920.00 Mentha Oil (Aug) 28-Aug-14 680.80 Sideways 15.07.14 706.80 - Mentha Oil (Sept) 31-Jul-14 692.30 Down 08.08.14 709.40 720.00
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 26.08.2014) Silver (Sept) ($) 26-Sep-14 19.39 Down 19.08.14 19.41 20.80 Gold (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-14 1284.30 Sideways 21.08.14 1274.50 - Crude Oil (Oct) ($) 22-Sep-14 93.86 Down 09.07.14 102.29 96.00 Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 26-Sep-14 3.95 Up 11.08.14 3.97 3.65 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 26.08.2014) Silver (Sept) 5-Sep-14 41985.00 Sideways 22.08.14 41955.00 - Gold (Oct) 3-Oct-14 27895.00 Sideways 21.08.14 27747.00 - Crude Oil (Sep) 19-Sep-14 5698.00 Down 09.07.14 6116.00 5900.00 Natural Gas (Sept) 25-Sep-14 242.70 Up 06.08.14 242.30 225.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 26.08.2014) Copper (Aug) 29-Aug-14 425.95 Up 20.08.14 425.05 414.00 Aluminum (Aug) 28-Aug-14 125.75 Up 28.05.14 106.50 122.00 Zinc (Aug) 28-Aug-14 142.50 Up 20.08.14 143.10 138.00 Lead (Aug) 28-Aug-14 135.70 Down 18.08.14 134.20 137.00 Nickel (Aug) 28-Aug-14 1140.90 Sideways 18.07.14 1122.00 - LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 26.08.2014) Copper 3 Months 7054.00 Up 20.08.14 7010.00 6850.00 Aluminum 3 Months 2083.00 Up 02.06.14 1850.00 1920.00 Zinc 3 Months 2358.00 Up 20.08.14 2356.00 2230.00 Lead 3 Months 2251.50 Up 23.06.14 2177.00 2210.00 Nickel 3 Months 18950.00 Sideways 18.07.14 18660.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Coriander futures (Sept) is expected to trade with an upside bias taking support above 11800 levels. Good demand and restricted supply pushed coriander price by Rs 100/100kg at the Ramganj market on Tuesday. The demand is good at the moment from the consuming centers. Turmeric futures (Sept) is likely to consolidate in the range of 6450-6590 levels. A steady tone observed in turmeric at the Nizamabad market on Tuesday amid sluggish demand. The demand remained subdued since this month so far and no major buying was witnessed either from domestic or from overseas. The demand is expected to improve from next month ahead of Onam festival in South India and Durga Puja in West Bengal. The short covering in jeera futures (Sept) might face resistance near 11225 levels. Cumin seed declined by Rs 10/20kg at the Unjha market on Monday due to weak demand. The demand from local and upcountry remained subdued. In the European market, cumin was offered at $1,975/ton, while it was available at $1,935 in Singapore 1% on FOB basis. Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Oct) would possibly extend the downside towards 3280 levels. The fundamentals are weak global markets, lackluster demand from crushers due to crush disparity and weak meal demand. U.S Soybean futures prices for September delivery plunged on Tuesday by 30 1/4 cents, or 2.7%, to $10.82 a bushel, the lowest intraday price for a front-month contract since Oct. 7, 2010. Seventy percent of soybeans in the main growing areas were in good or excellent condition as of Aug. 24, the highest for this time of year since 1992, as cited by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Persistent rainfall that benefits crops in most of the U.S. Midwest, including parts of northeastern Iowa that hadn't received much precipitation in the past 30 days, is keeping prices under downward pressure. As much as 1.5 inches of precipitation fell in northern Iowa on Monday, according to the National Weather Service. Mustard futures (Sept) is expected to trade in the range of 3540-3590 levels. Profit booking from higher levels may keep the upside capped. Refined soy oil futures (Sept) is expected to trade in the range of 615-625 levels. The spot prices of refined soy oil continued to trade lower on weakness in overseas markets coupled with selling pressure by the port base refineries as well as local traders. Degummed soybean oil September (CIF) was down at $863/ton on Tuesday compared to Monday’s price of $870. Other Commodities: Guar complex is expected to trade with a negative bias tracking weak sentiments of the spot market. Guarseed declined sharply in the absence of demand and scattered rainfall in guar growing regions. There is report of light rainfall in guar growing belts of Jodhpur and surrounding regions. The counters in the near term is expected to trade flat to negative due to strong selling and expectation of rainfall in the state. Sugar futures (Sept) is likely to remain below 3060 levels. Sugar prices ruled flat on Tuesday on back of enough supply amid routine demand. In absence of active buying and continuous selling by producers, the volume remained routine. Prices on the Vashi market were unchanged both at spot and naka level. Mill tender prices were also range-bound. Chana futures (Sept) may fall towards 2820 levels, breaching 2840 levels. The yields are likely to turn in a sound performance on supportive climate in Maharashtra and other key states. This is likely to add bearish sentiments to the counter. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade in range tracking mixed global clues. On domestic bourses weak local currency can cap the downside. Gold can move in range of 27700-28000 while silver can hover in range of 41500-42300 in MCX. Gold held below $1,300 an ounce as investors weighed a strengthening U.S. economy and dollar against signs of easing tensions around the world. Russian President Vladimir Putin said talks with his Ukrainian counterpart were “positive”, while Israel and Hamas said they accepted an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire plan to end the conflict in Gaza. The dollar climbed to its highest level in almost a year against the euro on speculation the Fed will increase rates next year, while the European Central Bank will add to stimulus. Base Metals: Base metals may witness some profit booking at higher levels except aluminum and zinc which can continue to move higher. Copper may trade in range of 422-430 while Lead may move in range of 135-138. Aluminum may move in range of 125-126.50. Nickel may move in range of 1130-1150 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 141-143. Aluminum traded near an 18-month high on speculation demand is rising amid signs a recovery is gathering pace in the U.S. and before data forecast to show the country’s economy expanded for the second quarter. The U.S. economy grew 3.9 percent in the three months through June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists before government data tomorrow. Orders for goods meant to last at least three years climbed by a record 22.6 percent in July, the Commerce Department said yesterday. Consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in August to the highest level in almost seven years, a separate index showed. Energy: Crude oil may witness some short covering at lower levels as investors will eye the EIA data today. Overall it may trade in range of 5660-5770 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate traded near a three-day high before a government report forecast to show crude stockpiles dropped for a second week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. The American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported that supplies fell by 1.3 million barrels. Iran is joining efforts to back Iraqi Kurds battling Islamic State militants who have captured swathes of northern Iraq. The conflict in Iraq, the second-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has largely spared the south, home to about three-quarters of its crude output. Natural gas may move in range of 240-245 in MCX.
  • 4. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral 11:30 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Medium 8.9 9 Metal and Energy Favourable 16:30 USD MBA Mortgage Applications Medium 1.40% Metal and Energy 20:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Low -4474K Crude oil Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.