SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3387.00 Down 28.07.14 3659.00 3550.00 Soy Bean (Nov) 20-Nov-14 3216.00 Down 05.08.14 3400.00 3450.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Sep) 19-Sep-14 626.20 Down 09.07.14 679.80 655.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Oct ) 20-Oct-14 580.80 Down 09.07.14 633.20 645.00 RM seeds (Sep) 19-Sep-14 3426.00 Down 06.08.14 3589.00 3650.00 RM seeds (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3461.00 Down 06.08.14 3643.00 3620.00 Turmeric (Sep) 19-Sep-14 6584.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 6930.00 Turmeric (Oct) 20-Oct-14 6800.00 Down 23.07.14 6646.00 7000.00 Jeera (Sep) 19-Sep-14 11310.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11750.00 Jeera (Oct) 20-Oct-14 11410.00 Down 23.07.14 11675.00 11800.00 Chana (Sep) 19-Sep-14 2970.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Chana (Oct) 20-Oct-14 3045.00 Sideways 04.07.14 2887.00 - Cocud (Sep) 19-Sep-14 1835.00 Up 11.08.14 1752.00 1700.00 Cocud (Dec) 19-Dec-14 1511.00 Sideways 20.08.14 1511.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Sept) 15-Sept-14 969.20 Up 05.08.14 924.00 910.00 Cardamom (Oct) 15-Oct -14 955.70 Up 05.08.14 924.00 900.00 Mentha Oil (Aug) 28-Aug-14 705.50 Sideways 15.07.14 706.80 - Mentha Oil (Sept) 31-Jul-14 718.40 Down 08.08.14 709.40 740.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 21 st August, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 20.08.2014) Silver (Sept) ($) 26-Sep-14 19.50 Down 19.08.14 19.41 20.80 Gold (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-14 1294.30 Up 06.08.14 1307.40 1279.00 Crude Oil (Oct) ($) 22-Sep-14 93.45 Down 09.07.14 102.29 96.00 Natural Gas (Sept) ($) 27-Aug-14 3.82 Up 11.08.14 3.97 3.60 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 20.08.2014) Silver (Sept) 5-Sep-14 42341.00 Up 07.08.14 43814.00 42000.00 Gold (Oct) 3-Oct-14 28212.00 Up 19.06.14 27611.00 28000.00 Crude Oil (Sep) 19-Sep -14 5699.00 Down 09.07.14 6116.00 5900.00 Natural Gas (Aug) 26-Aug-14 232.30 Up 06.08.14 242.30 225.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 20.08.2014) Copper (Aug) 29-Aug-14 425.05 Up 20.08.14 425.05 410.00 Aluminum (Aug) 28-Aug-14 125.20 Up 28.05.14 106.50 121.00 Zinc (Aug) 28-Aug-14 143.10 Up 20.08.14 143.10 138.00 Lead (Aug) 28-Aug-14 136.75 Down 18.08.14 134.20 137.00 Nickel (Aug) 28-Aug-14 1145.50 Sideways 18.07.14 1122.00 - LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 20.08.2014) Copper 3 Months 7010.00 Up 20.08.14 7010.00 6850.00 Aluminum 3 Months 2076.00 Up 02.06.14 1850.00 1920.00 Zinc 3 Months 2356.00 Up 20.08.14 2356.00 2210.00 Lead 3 Months 2259.00 Up 23.06.14 2177.00 2210.00 Nickel 3 Months 18950.00 Sideways 18.07.14 18660.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Jeera futures (Sept) is likely to trade in the range of 11220-11400 levels with bearish bias. Factors such as lackluster demand from domestic and overseas market may keep lid on gains. Record output and huge carryover stocks have also pressurized prices.Area under jeera in Gujarat was reported at 455,000 ha as against 335,200 ha last year while about 390,000 ha were sown in Rajasthan. Turmeric futures (Sept) is likely to trade with bearish bias due to Increased acreage in Telangana coupled with sluggish demand as well as huge carryover stocks. The prices in Erode declined on sluggish buying and higher supplies. The prices are also driven by huge carry-over stocks and higher acreage in Telangana. Turmeric acreage in Telangana increased to 42916 hectares as on 13 th Aug 2014 from 36933 hectares a year ago. Cardamom futures (Sept) may manage to hold above 935 levels on rising demand lesser production estimates. Tight supplies in the physical market from producing belt may further fuel the uptrend. Oilseeds: The bearish trend may continue in edible oils market on expectation of higher inflow globally due to record soya and palm oil output. Refined soy oil futures (Sept) is likely to trade with a bearish bias & fall towards 610 levels. CPO futures (Sept) may continue to slide towards 447 levels on tracking a weak global trend and on subdued demand. On the international market, Malaysian palm oil prices sank to their lowest levels in almost five years on Wednesday, as slowing exports and prospects of near-record U.S. soybean production weighed on the market. Soybean futures (Oct) may trade in the range of 3340-3450 levels with downside bias on lack of buying interest and the healthy sowing prospects and good rains in soybean growing belt. Soya markets are facing pressure over forecasts of a bountiful bean crop from the US. But short covering at lower level cannot be denied. Other Commodities: The downside in Kapas futures (Apr) is likely to continue due to higher sowing area and weak demand in spot markets. According to Govt. of India data, as of 14 August 2014, 11.69 million hectares area of Cotton was planted in India as compare to 11.09 million hectares in the corresponding period last year. Chana futures (Sept) may continue trade higher due to higher buying by stockiest amid lower sowing reports of pulses. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, sowing of kharif pulses as on 14th August stands at 8.74 mn ha as against 9.55 mn ha last year. while sufficient availability of imported pulses in the spot markets may pressurize the prices. The selling pressure may continue on Sugar futures (Sept) due on weak physical demand and ample supply. Enough stocks in the hands of stockists kept them away from building up new inventory as local demand remained need-based. Vashi market carries about 115- 120 truckloads of stocks since start of the month Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade sideways as investors will eye the outcome of existing home sales data and euro zone PMI scheduled later today. On domestic bourses strong local currency can cap the upside. Gold can move in range of 27800-28200 while silver can hover in range of 41900-42800 in MCX. Gold fell for a fifth day, poised for the longest slump since June, as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting signaled that policy makers may increase borrowing costs earlier than expected. Many” officials said the central bank may have to raise interest rates sooner than anticipated, according to the minutes of the meeting in July, when asset purchases were cut for a sixth time. Chair Janet Yellen will speak tomorrow at a central bankers’ meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Base Metals: Base metals may continue its upside momentum but some profit booking at higher levels can be seen. Copper may trade in range of 421-432 while Lead may move in range of 136-138. Aluminum may move in range of 124-127. Nickel may move in range of 1135- 1155 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 142-145. Wire-rod production in China will advance to 6.3 million tons this year from 6 million in 2013, driven by demand for home appliances, a survey for the International Copper Study Group showed. Global refined-copper output will trail consumption by 90,000 tons this year and in 2015, Morgan Stanley said this month. Mine-production growth will slow to 2 percent this year, after climbing 8.2 percent in 2013, according to the New York-based bank. A gauge of Chinese manufacturing from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics showed a preliminary August reading of 50.3, trailing all 22 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The measure dropped from 51.7 in July and was the lowest since May. Energy: Crude oil may move in range of 5650-5750 in MCX on mixed fundamentals. West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses after crude stockpiles fell the most in five weeks in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London. Crude inventories shrank by 4.47 million barrels to 362.5 million last week, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday. Natural gas may open on negative path as it can move in range of 230-236 in MCX.
  • 4. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral 12:30 EUR Markit France Composite PMI Low 49.6 49.4 Metal and Energy Favourable 12:30 EUR Markit France Manufacturing PMI Low 47.8 47.8 Metal and Energy Neutral 12:30 EUR Markit France Services PMI Low 50.2 50.4 Metal and Energy Adverse 13:00 EUR Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI Medium 51.5 52.4 Metal and Energy Adverse 13:00 EUR - Indice PMI des services allemand Medium 55.5 56.7 Metal and Energy Adverse 13:00 EUR Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI Medium 54.6 55.7 Metal and Energy Adverse 13:30 EUR Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Medium 51.3 51.8 Metal and Energy Adverse 13:30 EUR Markit Eurozone Services PMI Medium 53.7 54.2 Metal and Energy Adverse 13:30 EUR Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Medium 53.4 53.8 Metal and Energy Adverse 18:00 USD Continuing Claims (AUG 9) Medium 2520K 2544K Metal and Energy Adverse 19:15 USD Markit US Manufacturing PMI Medium 55.3 55.8 Metal and Energy Adverse 19:30 USD Philadelphia Fed. Medium 18 23.9 Metal and Energy Adverse 19:30 USD Existing Home Sales Low 5.01M 5.04M Metal and Energy Adverse 19:30 USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) Medium -0.60% 2.60% Metal and Energy Adverse 19:30 EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Medium -9.1 -8.4 Metal and Energy Adverse 19:30 USD Leading Indicators Medium 0.60% 0.30% Metal and Energy Favourable 20:00 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Low 78 Natural gas
  • 5. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. You can also read this report on our website “” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651