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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business

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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (June) 20-Jun-14 4417.00 Down 19.05.14 4454.00 4650.00 Soy Bean (July) 18-July-14 4331.00 Down 19.05.14 4386.00 4500.00 Ref. Soy Oil (June) 20-Jun-14 688.35 Down 19.05.14 686.55 690.00 Ref. Soy Oil (July) 18-July-14 667.30 Down 19.05.14 671.60 672.00 RM seeds (June) 20-Jun-14 3412.00 Down 19.05.14 3475.00 3500.00 RM seeds (July) 18-July-14 3466.00 Down 19.05.14 3527.00 3550.00 Turmeric (June) 20-Jun-14 5842.00 Sideways 06.05.14 6676.00 - Turmeric (July) 18-July-14 5982.00 Sideways 06.05.14 6844.00 - Jeera (June) 20-Jun-14 10700.00 Up 22.04.14 10430.00 10700.00 Jeera (July) 18-July-14 10890.00 Up 22.04.14 10540.00 10800.00 Chana (June) 20-Jun-14 2720.00 Down 19.05.14 2978.00 2850.00 Chana (July) 18-July-14 2799.00 Down 19.05.14 3043.00 2940.00 Cocud (June) 20-Jun-14 1474.00 Down 19.05.14 1523.00 1540.00 Cocud (July) 18-July-14 1532.00 Down 19.05.14 1572.00 1590.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (June ) 13-Jun-14 972.40 Sideways 10.06.14 972.40 - Cardamom (July) 15-July-14 916.10 Sideways 21.05.14 933.80 - Mentha Oil (June) 30-June-14 796.30 Down 10.06.14 796.30 840.00 Mentha Oil (July) 31-July-14 807.90 Down 10.06.14 807.90 850.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 11th June, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 10.06.2014) Silver (July) ($) 29-July-14 19.17 Down 24.03.14 20.07 19.80 Gold (Aug) ($) 27-Aug-14 1260.10 Down 24.03.14 1311.20 1270.00 Crude Oil (July) ($) 20-June-14 104.35 Up 07.05.14 100.77 100.50 Natural Gas (July) ($) 26-June-14 4.53 Down 12.05.14 4.43 4.72 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 10.06.2014) Silver (July) 5-July-14 40506.00 Down 24.03.14 43949.00 41500.00 Gold (Aug) 5-Aug-14 26139.00 Down 21.05.14 27373.00 26800.00 Crude Oil (June) 19-Jun-14 6170.00 Up 07.05.14 6033.00 6030.00 Natural Gas (June) 25-June-14 269.30 Up 05.06.14 278.50 262.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 10.06.2014) Copper (June) 30-Jun-14 400.85 Down 06.06.14 398.80 415.00 Aluminum (June) 30-Jun-14 111.00 Up 28.05.14 106.50 107.00 Zinc (June) 30-Jun-14 126.15 Up 10.04.14 123.40 122.00 Lead (June) 30-Jun-14 126.15 Up 09.06.14 126.45 121.00 Nickel (June) 30-Jun-14 1108.60 Sideways 15.05.14 1107.90 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 10.06.2014) Copper 3 Months 6675.00 Sideways 25.03.14 6603.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1900.50 Up 02.06.14 1850.00 1780.00 Zinc 3 Months 2132.00 Up 10.04.14 2040.00 2000.00 Lead 3 Months 2140.00 Up 21.04.14 2142.00 2080.00 Nickel 3 Months 18775.00 Sideways 15.05.14 18750.00 - **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (July) is likely to witness consolidation in the range of 5850-6100 levels. At the spot markets, only medium variety turmeric arrived for sale and traders and stockists purchased meagre quantity. Still the traders are waiting for upcountry demand. Traders are keen on buying quality turmeric as they intend to stock and sell when there is demand from exporters. Some local traders also purchased negligible quantity of turmeric from Nizamabad, for the supply of the commodity to the local masala firms and turmeric powder grinding units. Due to the arrival of poor quality, the price of hybrid finger turmeric decreased by Rs.450. The root variety slipped by Rs.100 a quintal. At the Erode Turmeric Merchants Association sales yard, the finger turmeric was sold at Rs.4,259-6,169 a quintal, the root variety Rs.4,011-5,881. Cardamom futures (July) is expected to face resistance near 925 levels. Cardamom continued its downtrend on slack demand despite fall in arrivals at the auctions. Severe heat wave conditions prevailing in the North have affected the retail business in those regions and that in turn has slowed down upcountry buying. During the current season of the crop, arrivals stood at 20,418 tonnes against 14,041 tonnes as on June 8 during the last season.Sales were 19,798 tonnes against 13,424 tonnes. Oilseeds: CPO futures (July) is expected to trade in the range of 508-515 levels. At the pot markets, palmolein increased by Rs.3/10 kg on back of higher physical demand amid extended gain in domestic soya oil futures thus encouraging stockists for new commitments. Palm oil imports by India, the world’s largest buyer, probably declined in May as refiners and traders bought more soybean and sunflower oils amid forecasts for record global supplies. Shipments of the main crude and refined palm oils dropped 12 percent to 668,000 metric tons, compiled by Bloomberg show. Malaysian palm oil futures slipped to a one-week low on Tuesday after an industry report showed stocks in the world's second-largest producer hit a four-month high at the end of May, with sluggish demand adding pressure to prices. Soybean futures (July) is likely to face resistance near 4365 levels. Soyabean also witnessed a sluggish trend on weak buying and demand with its prices in mandis across Madhya Pradesh at Rs.4,000-4,300. Ahead of USDA's monthly supply/demand reports due Wednesday, the average estimate of U.S. old-crop soybean stocks surveyed by Reuters was 127 million bushels, down 2.3 percent from USDA's May figure. Other Commodities: Cotton futures (July) on MCX would possibly trade in the range of 19300-19500 levels. The Cotton Association of India has estimated the cotton crop output at 388.25 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) for the 2013-14 season ending September. Total cotton supply is estimated at 447.50 lakh bales, while domestic consumption is pegged at 295 lakh bales, leaving a surplus of 152.50 lakh bales. Wheat futures (July) may remain stable taking support above 1500 levels. Moderate buying kept wheat and flour prices unchanged on Tuesday at the spot markets. Wheat and flour prices are ruling stable on steady domestic demand and supply. Dara wheat in the physical market sold at Rs.1,450-55 a quintal. The short covering in chana futures (July) is likely to face resistance near 2850 levels. Compared to demand, arrival of chana (both domestic and imported) continues to be on the higher side, leading to fall in prices. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade with positive bias tracking firm overseas cues. On domestic bourses weaker local currency can cap the downside. Gold can move in range of 25900-26300 while silver can hover in range of 40200-41000 in MCX. Gold rose toward the highest level in almost two weeks as prices that declined to four-month low spurred physical purchases. Platinum and palladium holdings in exchange-traded products expanded to records. In China, the world’s largest bullion consumer, volumes for the benchmark spot contract in Shanghai rose for a second day yesterday to a two-week high of 12,914 kilograms, climbing from a two-month low of 8,568 kilograms on June 6. Data this week may show U.S. retail sales rose in May. U.S. employment exceeded its pre-recession peak, according to a June 7 report. Base Metals: Base metals may open in green zone tracking firm international markets. Copper may trade in range of 398-408 while Lead may move in range of 125-128. Aluminum may move in range of 110-113. Nickel may move in range of 1100-1125 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 125-127. Copper prices ended slightly higher as investors continued to gauge what impact a Chinese investigation into commodity backed financing will have on supplies of the industrial metal. Prices for the industrial metal have fallen nearly three per cent this month as Chinese authorities investigate whether companies used the same copper, aluminum and iron-ore stocks held in the port of Qingdao as collateral for obtaining multiple loans. Chinese trade data released Monday has also weighed on copper prices. Imports dropped 1.6 per cent in May from April, lower than the six per cent rise forecast by analysts Energy: Crude oil may move on volatile path as investors will eye the outcome of weekly inventory data and OPEC meeting today. OPEC nations representing 94 percent of the group’s output said they were at ease with supply and demand in global oil markets before a meeting in Vienna today to decide on a collective production limit. Oil ministers from Angola, Ecuador, Kuwait and Venezuela all said they anticipated that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would roll over its existing ceiling of 30 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia, Libya, Nigeria and the United Arab Emirates said supply and demand are well matched. Overall it can move in range of 6130-6200 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest price in three months amid speculation that crude inventories fell for a second week in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London. Natural gas may move with negative bias in range of 264-274 in MCX. .
  • 4. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable/Neu tral 20:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Low -3431K Crude oil You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651