SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report Document Transcript

  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (May) 20-May-14 4682.50 Up 27.01.14 3793.00 4420.00 Soy Bean (June) 20-Jun-14 4682.50 Up 27.01.14 3795.00 4420.00 Ref. Soy Oil (May) 20-May-14 721.05 Up 16.04.14 715.35 695.00 Ref. Soy Oil (June) 20-Jun-14 713.90 Up 25.04.14 713.90 690.00 RM seeds (May) 20-May-14 3559.00 Up 25.04.14 3559.00 3390.00 RM seeds (June) 20-Jun-14 3611.00 Up 25.04.14 3611.00 3450.00 Turmeric (May) 20-May-14 7004.00 Up 15.04.14 6572.00 6640.00 Turmeric (June) 20-Jun-14 7146.00 Up 21.04.14 7012.00 6750.00 Jeera (May) 20-May-14 10720.00 Up 23.04.14 10495.00 10150.00 Jeera (June) 20-Jun-14 10835.00 Up 22.04.14 10430.00 10200.00 Chana (May) 20-May-14 3124.00 Down 04.04.14 3206.00 3240.00 Chana (June) 20-Jun-14 3190.00 Sideways 17.04.14 3202.00 - Cocud (May) 20-May-14 1576.00 Up 25.04.14 1576.00 1500.00 Cocud (June) 20-Jun-14 1630.00 Up 21.04.14 1594.00 1550.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (May) 15-May-14 989.30 Up 20.03.14 872.20 935.00 Cardamom (June) 13-June-14 1017.10 Up 20.03.14 898.50 965.00 Mentha Oil (Apr) 30-Apr-14 826.10 Down 15.04.14 843.30 870.00 Mentha Oil (May) 30-May-14 838.40 Down 15.04.14 855.10 885.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 28 th April, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 25.04.2014) Silver (May) ($) 28-May-14 19.69 Down 24.03.14 20.07 20.70 Gold (June) ($) 26-Jun-14 1300.80 Down 24.03.14 1311.20 1320.00 Crude Oil (June) ($) 20-May-14 100.60 Up 09.04.14 103.60 100.00 Natural Gas (June) ($) 28-May-14 4.65 Up 21.04.14 4.70 4.30 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 25.04.2014) Silver (May) 5-May-14 42607.00 Down 24.03.14 43949.00 44000.00 Gold (June) 5-Jun-14 28905.00 Sideways 14.04.14 28959.00 - Crude Oil (May) 19-May-14 6131.00 Sideways 25.04.14 6131.00 - Natural Gas (May) 27-May-14 285.10 Up 17.04.14 285.50 274.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 25.04.2014) Copper (Apr) 30-Apr-14 418.25 Up 23.04.14 413.60 404.00 Aluminum (Apr) 30-Apr-14 110.40 Up 31.03.14 106.25 108.00 Zinc (Apr) 30-Apr-14 124.20 Up 10.04.14 123.40 121.00 Lead (Apr) 30-Apr-14 129.60 Up 10.04.14 127.75 126.00 Nickel (Apr) 30-Apr-14 1118.50 Up 04.04.14 984.00 1080.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 25.04.2014) Copper 3 Months 6765.00 Sideways 25.03.14 6603.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1852.50 Up 02.04.14 1829.50 1780.00 Zinc 3 Months 2056.00 Up 10.04.14 2040.00 1960.00 Lead 3 Months 2162.00 Up 21.04.14 2142.00 2070.00 Nickel 3 Months 18445.00 Up 18.02.14 14460.00 17750.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: The upside in turmeric futures (May) is likely to get extended surpassing 7100 levels. Higher demand is being reported for hybrid finger variety yellow spices in the domestic markets. The months from April - June is the normal procurement season of all the spices processing companies. The exporters are also awaiting super fine quality as the demand is very high from the abroad destinations. Jeera futures (June) would possibly trade further higher to test 11000 levels. In the current scenario, the arrivals are dropping and the buyers are getting interested to buy the commodity from lower levels. India is in advantages position in Jeera export market as political crisis continued to limit supply from Syria amid poor crop from Turkey. Coriander futures (May) is expected to witness a downfall towards 9100 levels, breaching 9300 levels. The buyers at the spot markets are reported to be inactive due to higher prices. On the supply side, the production expectations both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh may be around 40 lakh bags (1 bag = 40 kgs). Oilseeds: Mustard futures (May) is likely to remain steady and may test 3590 levels. In the physical market, the counter is stable quoting at Rs.3,900-4,050, while Raida at Rs.2,900-3,000. The buying across the mandis by the millers and the stockists at the current price levels is reportedly good. The bullish momentum in soybean futures (May) is expected to get stretched taking support above 4600 levels. The arrivals across the various spot markets are lower & there are talks that there may be shortage of soybean seed supply this kharif season. Data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture showed that India requires 342,906 tonnes of quality hybrid soybean seeds for the 2014 kharif sowing season of which its availability stands at 273,289 tonnes resulting into shortage of 69,617 tonnes. On CBOT, Soybean and soybean meal futures rallied on chart-based buying and fears about tightening near-term supplies. U.S. processors were still scrambling to find soy to crush, lifting soymeal and soybeans. Chicago Board of Trade July soybeans climbed 14 cents, or 0.94 percent, to $15.08 a bushel. CPO futures (May) is likely to trade in the range of 560-570 levels. The downside may remain capped supported by firm sentiments prevailing in the Malaysian markets. At the spot markets, the stockiest have increased their rates at the spot markets on the back of weak Rupee against dollar, making imports costlier. Other Commodities: The upside momentum in Guar seed futures (May) may stretch towards 5400 levels, while guar gum futures (May) is expected to move upside towards 14200 levels. The fundamentals depict that the crushing margins has improved on account of increase in Churi and korma average prices. Guar being a rainfed monsoon crop, to be sown in the month of June, every grower is keeping a watch over the clouds. Latest forecast from a majority of the models also indicate warming trend in the sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific reaching to El Nino level during the southwest monsoon season with a probability of around 60%. The rally in Sugar futures (May) is likely to witness some pause & witness a consolidation in the range of 3215-3280 levels. On the demand side, stockists are away from fresh bulk buying at higher levels as supply is ample. Currently, inventory in the Vashi market is 120–125 truckloads. The downside in mentha oil futures (May) is likely to extended towards 815 levels. The weak demand from mint consuming industries is pressurizing the prices. Moreover, the speedy progress of sowing in the major growing regions of Uttar Pradesh is further weighing on sentiments. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade sideways with upside bias tracking firm overseas clues. On domestic bourses stronger local currency can cap the upside. Gold can move in range of 28700-29200 while silver can hover in range of 42000-43200 in MCX. Gold climbed to the highest level in more than a week, set for a monthly gain, as a worsening crisis in Ukraine stoked haven demand. Assets in the largest exchange-traded product were unchanged for a fourth day. Gold has risen 8.7 percent this year, rebounding from the worst annual decline in more than three decades, in part as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine fueled demand. The U.S. and European Union will impose new sanctions as early as today on Russian companies. Base Metals: Base metals may continue last week gains on strong international markets. Copper may trade in range of 415-422 while Lead may move in range of 128.50-131. Aluminum may move in range of 109-112. Nickel may move in range of 1080-1140 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 123-126. Nickel climbed for a second day to a 14-month high on concern that supplies from Russia may be disrupted amid mounting tensions over Ukraine. Copper in London rose 0.2 percent to $6,776 a ton, extending last week’s 1.7 percent gain. The contract for delivery in July climbed 0.2 percent to $3.098 a pound in New York. In Shanghai, futures for delivery in July were 0.2 percent higher at 47,990 yuan ($7,675) a ton. Energy: Crude oil may witness lower level buying. Overall it can move in range of 6100-6170 in MCX. Brent rebounded from its biggest loss in almost three weeks as the U.S. said it will impose more sanctions on Russia, the world’s biggest energy exporter, as the Ukraine crisis escalates. Representatives of the 28 European Union nations will meet today to widen a list of people subject to asset freezes and travel bans, an official from the bloc said over the weekend. The sanctions will target 15 Russians in positions of power, another diplomat said. Both asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter. Natural gas may trade in range of 282-292 in MCX.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651