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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
SMC Global Commodity Daily Report
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SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in …

This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

Published in: Economy & Finance, Business
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  • 1. CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (May) 20-May-14 4399.00 Up 27.01.14 3793.00 4200.00 Soy Bean (June) 20-Jun-14 4368.50 Up 27.01.14 3795.00 4200.00 Ref. Soy Oil (May) 20-May-14 710.10 Up 16.04.14 715.35 695.00 Ref. Soy Oil (June) 20-Jun-14 701.10 Sideways 17.04.14 701.10 - RM seeds (May) 20-May-14 3480.00 Down 21.03.14 3451.00 3540.00 RM seeds (June) 20-Jun-14 3533.00 Down 21.03.14 3497.00 3570.00 Turmeric (May) 20-May-14 6632.00 Up 15.04.14 6572.00 6300.00 Turmeric (June) 20-Jun-14 6744.00 Sideways 17.04.14 6744.00 - Jeera (May) 20-May-14 10020.00 Down 02.12.13 13045.00 10400.00 Jeera (June) 20-Jun-14 10155.00 Down 02.01.14 13140.00 10300.00 Chana (May) 20-May-14 3144.00 Down 04.04.14 3206.00 3240.00 Chana (June) 20-Jun-14 3202.00 Sideways 17.04.14 3202.00 - Cocud (May) 20-May-14 1505.00 Down 25.03.14 1514.00 1570.00 Cocud (June) 20-Jun-14 1554.00 Sideways 17.04.14 1554.00 - MCX (Agri) Cardamom (May) 15-May-14 913.50 Up 20.03.14 872.20 875.00 Cardamom (June) 13-June-14 940.90 Up 20.03.14 898.50 890.00 Mentha Oil (Apr) 30-Apr-14 852.40 Down 15.04.14 843.30 890.00 Mentha Oil (May) 30-May-14 863.00 Down 15.04.14 855.10 900.00 SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 21 st April, 2014
  • 2. COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 17.04.2014) Silver (May) ($) 28-May-14 19.60 Down 24.03.14 20.07 21.00 Gold (June) ($) 28-June-14 1293.90 Down 24.03.14 1311.20 1330.00 Crude Oil (May) ($) 22-Apr-14 104.30 Up 09.04.14 103.60 100.00 Natural Gas (May) ($) 28-Apr-14 4.74 Sideways 10.04.14 4.66 - MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 17.04.2014) Silver (May) 5-May-14 42377.00 Down 24.03.14 43949.00 44000.00 Gold (June) 5-June-14 28505.00 Sideways 14.04.14 28959.00 - Crude Oil (Apr) 21-Apr-14 6287.00 Up 09.04.14 6235.00 6150.00 Natural Gas (Apr) 25-Apr-14 285.50 Up 17.04.14 285.50 260.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 17.04.2014) Copper (Apr) 30-Apr-14 407.40 Down 05.02.14 441.40 411.00 Aluminum (Apr) 30-Apr-14 111.00 Up 31.03.14 106.25 107.00 Zinc (Apr) 30-Apr-14 124.25 Up 10.04.14 123.40 120.00 Lead (Apr) 30-Apr-14 128.80 Up 10.04.14 127.75 123.00 Nickel (Apr) 30-Apr-14 1083.30 Up 04.04.14 984.00 1040.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 17.04.2014) Copper 3 Months 6649.00 Sideways 25.03.14 6603.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1865.00 Up 02.04.14 1829.50 1780.00 Zinc 3 Months 2060.50 Up 10.04.14 2040.00 1940.00 Lead 3 Months 2142.00 Sideways 16.04.14 2142.00 - Nickel 3 Months 17925.00 Up 18.02.14 14460.00 17100.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
  • 3. Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (May) is expected to hold the upside taking support above 6445 levels. The downside may remain capped on reports that the upcountry exporters at the spot markets have received export orders. The merchants in North India prefer Erode variety for its price and quality. The arrival of turmeric in Nizamabad and Sangli, though high, the quality is poor when compared to Erode turmeric. Cardamom futures (May) is likely remain sideways in the range of 900-925 levels. At the spot market, Cardamom prices have dropped marginally on slack demand amid moderate arrivals. Export buying has also shrunk as no fresh orders are forthcoming following an upsurge in the prices. Guatemala is offering cardamom to the West Asia at competitive rates at about at $12-12.5 a kg against the Indian price of $14- 14.5 a kg. The upside in jeera futures may remain capped pressurized by higher arrivals amid robust production during this season. Oilseeds: Refined soy oil futures (May) is likely to take support above 705 levels following positive sentiments & increasing prices at the spot markets. On the supply side, current stock of edible oils as on 1st April, 2014 at various ports is estimated at 490,000 tons. Total stock, both at ports and in pipelines is pegged at 1,200,000 tons. CPO futures (May) is expected to trade in the range of 555-570 levels. On the international market, Malaysian palm oil futures, which set the tone for global prices, have gained on strong exports in the first half of April, with the possible return of the dreaded El Nino weather phenomenon offering additional support. A majority of weather forecasting models indicate that an El Nino weather phenomenon may develop around the middle of the year. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during April 1-20 fell 5.9 percent to 722,170 tonnes from the 767,785 tonnes shipped during March 1-20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Monday. The bullishness in the Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of trade might add to the upside in the soybean prices on the domestic bourse. Soybean futures (May) is expected to take support above 4345 levels. Soybeans were mixed, with old-crop contracts weakening on some mild profit taking after bigger-than-expected crush data sparked a rally that pushed prices to a nine-month high earlier in the last week. New-crop soy contracts edged higher on unwinding of bull spreads. Other Commodities: Wheat futures (May) is expected to consolidate in the range of 1555-1570 levels. Indian wheat supplies offered value as they are at least $10 a tonne cheaper than the Black Sea origin. India's overseas sales of the grain through the three state traders will continue until June. Sugar futures are likely to maintain the upside taking support above 3210 levels. The coming months are to witness peak summer & demand for sugar is likely to rise in days to come. Moreover, the crushing season will be over soon. The government has decided to continue with the export subsidy of Rs 3,300 per tonne on raw sugar shipments for the April-May period. As much as 4,00,000 tonnes of sugar are likely to be exported in April and May. Some shipments have already been dispatched and are in transit, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). It is reported that 3,50,000 tonnes of sugar were exported last month, the first month of the subsidy. Mentha oil futures (May) will possibly remain in the range of 850-880 levels. It is reported that in the current year, the total sowing acreage of Mentha oil is expected to decline by 20-25% on the account of delayed harvesting. In major growing areas such as Rampur, Sambhal and Chandausi farmers are likely to divert towards the Potato & other remunerative crops. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to tad lower tracking weak overseas cues. On domestic bourses stronger local currency can cap the upside. Gold can move in range of 28200-28700 while silver can hover in range of 41800-42600 in MCX. Hedge funds lowered bullish bets on gold for a fourth week, the longest streak this year. Prices fell 7.1 percent since reaching a six-month high in March after tension in Ukraine eased and U.S. equities rallied to a record. The number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance payments held last week near the lowest level in almost seven years and retail sales in March increased more than economists forecast. Bullion plunged 28 percent in 2013 as some investors lost their faith in the metal as a store of value. Base Metals: Base metals may remain in range. Copper may trade in range of 401-412 while Lead may move in range of 127-129 Aluminum may move in range of 110-112. Nickel may move in range of 1070-1095 in MCX. Zinc may move in range of 123-125. Copper futures in Shanghai climbed ahead of trade data from China, the world’s largest user of metals. China is scheduled to release refined copper import and export data later today. Domestic smelters have been hoarding the metal in bonded warehouses to drive up the local price against the rate in London. Copper users in China are paying the highest premium in 29 months as a result of reduced local supplies. Energy: Crude oil may witness profit booking at higher levels as it may move in range of 6220-6320 in MCX. Brent oil declined a second day on speculation that price gains last week on tension between Ukraine and Russia were excessive. Net-long positions in the U.S. benchmark crude held by money managers, including hedge funds, commodity pools and commodity-trading advisers, rose by 3.1 percent to 341,477, according to the CFTC. Natural gas may open on positive note as it can test 290 in MCX. Speculators’ decision to raise bullish bets on U.S. natural gas was rewarded with a rally to the highest price since February. Their net-long position across four natural-gas contracts rose 1.9 percent in the seven days ended April 15.
  • 4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com” DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court. Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651

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